FAN Projection Targets: Top Defenders of Last Three Years

Earlier this afternoon, FanGraphs CEO and founder David Appelman announced that the ballots for the 2016 FAN Projections are now available for the tender ministrations of this site’s readership. With a view to ensuring that all notable players are addressed sufficiently — and also towards producing the number of posts he’s required to publish each week — the present author is highlighting certain players whose ballots are of some particular interest.

Before casting a ballot, don’t forget this note from Appelman’s announcement post:

Please note that everything this year is a rate stat. You’re projecting 2B+3B, HR, SB, and Fielding as a measure of 150 games (basically a full season). The player’s previous stats are shown per 150 games in the projection ballot too. This will make changing playing time projections much easier as you’ll only have to change the games played portion.

Now, here are’s a small collection of players for the reader’s consideration — the five players, among those who’ve received fewer than five FAN Projection ballots, to have recorded the top defensive-run totals over the last three years. Note: listed age is for 2016.

Player: Zack Cozart, 30, SS (Profile)
2015 Line: 214 PA, .258/.310/.459, 6.5% BB, 13.6% K, 104 wRC+ at MLB
Notes: Recorded highest walk rate, lowest strikeout rate, and highest isolated-power figure of career in 2015 before suffering season-ending knee injury in June. Is expected to return to 100% fitness for spring training. Might have some competition in form of Eugenio Suarez, who produced 105 wRC+ over roughly 400 plate appearances in Cozart’s absence.

¡Submit Projection for Zack Cozart!

Player: J.J. Hardy, 33, SS (Profile)
2015 Line: 437 PA, .219/.253/.311, 4.6% BB, 20.1% K, 49 wRC+ at MLB
Notes: Produced worst park-adjusted batting line of career (by some margin) in 2015. Didn’t appear till May due to injured left shoulder. Revealed at end of season that he’d played entire year with torn labrum in same shoulder. Expected to return as starter in 2016.

¡Submit Projection for J.J. Hardy!

Player: Yadier Molina, 33, C (Profile)
2015 Line: 530 PA, .270/.310/.350, 6.0% BB, 11.1% K, 80 wRC+ at MLB
Notes: Recorded 500-plus plate appearances in 2015 for sixth time in seven years, but also recoreded lowest WAR figure during that same period. End of season and playoffs marred by left thumb injury that required surgery in October and then a second surgery in December. Cardinals are “hopeful” he’ll return for Opening Day.

¡Submit Projection for Yadier Molina!

Player: Andrelton Simmons, 26, SS (Profile)
2015 Line: 583 PA, .265/.321/.338, 6.7% BB, 8.2% K, 82 wRC+ at MLB
Notes: The top defensive player by some margin over last three season in majors, responsible for +77.5 runs — roughly 25 greater than Lorenzo Cain’s second-place mark during that same interval. Once again recorded considerably better-than-average strikeout rate in 2015 — but also once again, produced little damage on contact. Traded to Angels in November.

¡Submit Projection for Andrelton Simmons!

Player: Juan Uribe, 37, 3B (Profile)
2015 Line: 397 PA, .253/.320/.417, 8.6% BB, 20.2% K, 104 wRC+ at MLB
Notes: Managed to produce two wins in only 400 plate appearances while playing parts of season with Braves, Dodgers, and Mets. A chest contusion curtailed his involvement in Mets’ postseason run, limiting him to merely one plate appearances. Is currently free agent, receiving interest from Cleveland most recently.

¡Submit Projection for Juan Uribe!





Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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magicrays
8 years ago

If we are talking defense, why is the majority of this article about offense?

member
8 years ago
Reply to  magicrays

Because the surest path to a Gold Glove award is to hit really well. Everyone knows that.