Justin Upton Is Staying in Anaheim
Billy Eppler does not care about baseball writers. A year ago, the day after the World Series ended, he traded for Cameron Maybin to shore up his outfield. Today, the day after the World Series ended, he gave Justin Upton a new contract to convince him to not use his opt-out clause and become a free agent, once again improving his outfield.
The deal seems pretty straight forward; in addition to the $88 million he had remaining on his contract over the next four years if he didn’t opt-out, the Angels added an $18 million guarantee for a fifth year, pushing his new guaranteed total to $106 million over five years. Given what the market is paying for wins these days, this effectively values Upton as something like a +3 WAR player expected to age fairly normally.
Obviously, he was a lot better than that this year, putting up his second best season by WAR in his career, but since signing his last free agent contract, he’s totaled +6.3 WAR over two seasons, so a +3 WAR per year estimate seems about right. Upton might not be the steadiest performer around, but given his base of skills, a little over $100 million for five years seems about right.
The Angels just saw a division rival win the World Series, and the Astros are going to enjoy all the benefits that comes with that over the next few years, making them an even tougher opponent to overcome. But with Upton in the fold at a fair rate, they have a better shot at capitalizing on Mike Trout’s prime than they would have had Upton hit the open market.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Makes sense for both sides. I wonder if we’ll see the Yankees and Tanaka approach his opt-out similarly.
Seems like a perfectly reasonable deal. The Halos needed to bring in talent or go all-in on a rebuild. The trade for Upton gave them an exclusive bargaining window with Upton, and it ensured they do not lose a draft pick signing a big ticket free agent.
When the Angels signed Pujols and Hamilton, it was immediately clear those were terrible contracts that would hurt the team long-term. This seems like a much, much better contract, and Upton has a very good chance of being worth every dollar of this deal.
This Upton deal is cheaper than Hamilton’s deal, in raw dollars not even counting any salary inflation over the last 5 years. And Upton is a couple years younger than Hamilton was when he signed his deal, too. I’m not sure he’ll be worth every dollar, but as far as free agent signings go, this seems more than fair.
All the benefits that come from winning the WS? The same benefits the Cubs took advantage of?
I am not sure what those benefits are either. If anything, it might be a tendency to over-value what you have and mistake what you did this year for repeatable.
I take it Dave meant two things: 1) Increased attendance / tv ratings, which means more revenue. I’m pretty sure the Cubs did alright there. 2) Free agents will prefer to sign with you. They signed Jon Jay for $8m, and got 1.6 WAR out of him, as well as ok production from Brian Duensing and Kojie Uehara for cheap contracts, which isn’t incredible or anything, but helps a bit on the margins.
Or the Royals or the Giants before them
Increased attendance sure, and some merch sales at the park (I believe everything else, eg through mlb.com, gets shared like all merch sales do). But their TV contract is signed through 2032(!) and they don’t have an ownership stake in the RSN, so I don’t think they see any additional TV money even if they’re making it for the RSN and its advertisers.
And they get last pick in the draft.
I suppose being a young team on an upswing might help a little with free agent signings, but it’s not like Houston previously was an unattractive destination the way Detroit or Oakland might be perceived to be. I don’t know that winning the WS gets them any additional traction in the Shohei Otani sweepstakes, for instance.
I agree with you on merchandise and TV.
I could see the Astros having more attendance revenue upside than a typical World Series winner, though, because attendance has not yet fully recovered from the teardown years when the team was really bad. Attendance this year was only 2.4 million. For one stretch in the mid-2000’s they drew 3 million for three out of four years.
Their average ticket price is also reportedly in the bottom half of MLB – https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikeozanian/2017/03/22/baseball-ticket-prices-for-every-team-cubs-top-mlb-at-151-graphic/#4b8a3129294a
In Diamond Dollars, it’s estimated that a World Series appearance is worth $50+ million over the next 5 years.
I love it when a team tries to compete. Great job, Angels! They are trying to put something together and I respect that. I still consider that a weak, winnable division despite HOU winning the WS – its not like they steamrolled anyone in the playoffs. It is also a great division to win a wild card out of as the bottom is really meh. Now they should go sign Darvish at a discount… his stock has probably never been lower. If they have a heart of the order of Trout, Upton, Pujols that is pretty considerable – not sure what Pujols has left, but wouldn’t be shocked if he has a big season left. Defensively, they have Trout and Andrelton up the middle. If they can sign a few arms, then they should be in business – you have to think that is what they are going to do. They are always good at finding bullpen arms.
Pujols sucks
Thanks for the reply. Rich and compelling.
“but wouldn’t be shocked if he has a big season left.”
The only thing “big” about any seasons Pujols has left are his physical attributes, and they are getting “bigger”…waist, breats, bottom, thighs, top/back arm fat, etc…
You seem disturbingly familiar with the intimate aspects of Albert Pujols’ anatomy.
He is only a few years removed from being a 40 HR guy, but you are entitled to your opinion. I would rather celebrate one of the best hitters of all time than focus on his decline, but again, do as you like.
Probably one of the emptiest 40 homer seasons we’ve seen. I love Pujols, but he’s toast. Maybe if he lost some weight but he doesn’t seem too interested.
It was a 40 HR season with a subpar OBP (.307) such that he was only a 114 wRC+ hitter, which isn’t at all great for a player with his other limitations (no defensive value and negative base running value). He’ll be 38 in January and 2011 or 2012 was the last year that one could say he was a very good, reasonably complete hitter.
Right now, Chris Carter is quite likely a better player than Pujols with similar limitations, and he was last seen signing a minor league contract with the A’s after getting released mid-season.
I fully agree that Pujols was one of the best hitters of all-time. He was absolutely amazing for the first decade of his career. He’s not that player any more, however, and that player isn’t coming back. He’s had repeated problems with his feet, including multiple surgeries – http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/18190497/albert-pujols-los-angeles-angels-foot-surgery-4-months – and he’s old for a baseball player.
I like this move for both sides but I’m intrigued by this for another reason: It is one fewer place for Giancarlo Stanton to land.
Sad, Desperate Angels make Sad, Desperate Angels move.
Having a core of Trout, Upton, Calhoun, and Simmons is a good start; but there’s just too many holes on this roster, including the pumpkin that Albert Pujols has become. The stars and scrubs approach has worked before: the 2013 Braves won 97 games despite getting negative WAR values from regulars BJ Upton and Dan Uggla. However pretty much everyone else played well, some guys had fluky years (Chris Johnson), and the pitching staff pitched light years better than their peripherals. If the 2018 Angels don’t significantly upgrade their roster, I can’t see them making the postseason unless they get incredibly lucky.
I have no faith that the Angels will do what it takes to clear Pujols off the roster. You could see them trying to sign Mike Moustakas or Neil Walker to contracts they might regret later but DFA Pujols and sign Lucas Duda/Yonder Alonso to replace him? That would require admitting they are wrong.
adding someone like Brandon Phillips or Andy Burns to play second base wouldn’t hurt, in addition to taking a look at Hirano and some other cheap relievers in the bullpen, a cheap sp flyer in Hyeon Jong Yang or Brooks Raley as well.
Lesson learned: do not reply to team-specific posts.
Or don’t suggest that the 101 win, nearly 200 run differential, World Series champion Astros are a weak and beatable team because they didn’t dominate three of the best teams in the game in a small sample
Everyone is a dynasty, I get it.
Troll level: infinite.