KATOH Projections for Prospects 143-200
A couple of days ago, I examined how the players listed on Kiley McDaniel’s top 200 list graded out according to KATOH — my prospect projection system. Well, not exactly. I actually examined how his top 142 prospects — those that he ranked — graded out according to KATOH. I left off the 58 honorable mentions who just missed the cut for receiving a full writeup. Each of these guys received a 45+ FV rating from McDaniel, which means their most likely to peak as weak everyday players or back-end starters. Think Charlie Blackmon or Mike Leake. While none of the names listed below are likely to be stars, or even average regulars, all of them are pretty good bets to make at least some sort of big league impact.
These 45+ prospects receive an average projection of around 3.5WAR, which is about a half-win higher than the prospects who ranked in the back half of Kiley’s top 142. However, this group’s average is helped substantially by Alex Verdugo and Gleyber Torres, who both receive projections north of 10. While this sounds impressive, keep in mind that Verdugo’s and Torres’ projections stem from ~200 rookie ball plate appearances, and should therefore be taken with several grains of salt. KATOH comes in very high on guys like Verdugo, Torres, and a few others, but on the aggregate, it pegs prospects 143-200 to be nothing more than a bunch of role players.
So here’s the list. Projections that were calculated using fewer than 200 plate appearances or batters faced are marked with an asterisk (*). The players who did not play in 2014 are at the bottom of the list, and were denoted with “N/A”.
Player | Team | KATOH WAR thru age 28 |
---|---|---|
Alex Verdugo, RF | LAD | 10.8 |
Gleyber Torres, SS | CHC | 10.6 |
Ketel Marte, SS | SEA | 8.6 |
Domingo Santana, RF | HOU | 8.2 |
Jomar Reyes, 3B | BAL | 7.4 |
Matt Olson, 1B | OAK | 7.2 |
Alen Hanson, SS | PIT | 7 |
Magneuris Sierra, CF | STL | 5.4 |
Rafael Montero, RHP | NYM | 5.3 |
Rob Refsnyder, 2B | NYY | 5 |
Billy Mckinney, LF | CHC | 4.7 |
Rymer Liriano, RF | SDP | 4.5 |
Randal Grichuk, RF | STL | 4.4 |
Zach Davies, RHP | BAL | 4.4 |
Jacob Lamb, 3B | ARZ | 4.2 |
Andrew Velazquez, SS | ARZ | 3.9 |
Christian Arroyo, SS | SFG | 3.9 |
Lewis Thorpe, LHP | MIN | 3.9 |
Renato Nunez, 3B | OAK | 3.9 |
Clint Coulter, RF | MIL | 3.8 |
J.T. Realmuto, C | MIA | 3.8 |
Devon Travis, 2B | TOR | 3.6 |
A.J. Cole, RHP | WSH | 3.4 |
Steven Moya, RF | DET | 3.4 |
Edwin Diaz, RHP | SEA | 3.3 |
Monte Harrison, CF | MIL | 3.1 |
Garin Cecchini, 3B | BOS | 2.7 |
Christian Walker, 1B | BAL | 2.6 |
Reese Mcguire, C | PIT | 2.6 |
Corey Knebel, RHP | MIL | 2.3* |
Michael Chavis, 3B | BOS | 2.3* |
Alex Colome, RHP | TBR | 2.2 |
Matt Barnes, RHP | BOS | 2.2 |
Yorman Rodriguez, RF | CIN | 2.2 |
Dominic Smith, 1B | NYM | 2.1 |
Trey Michalczewski, 3B | CHW | 2.1 |
Brent Honeywell, RHP | TBR | 2.1* |
Deven Marrero, SS | BOS | 2 |
Zach Eflin, RHP | PHI | 1.9 |
Blake Snell, LHP | TBR | 1.7 |
Tyrone Taylor, CF | MIL | 1.7 |
Chris Anderson, RHP | LAA | 1.6 |
Daniel Vogelbach, 1B | CHC | 1.6 |
Tyler Anderson, LHP | COL | 1.6 |
Wilmer Difo, SS | WSH | 1.5 |
Braxton Davidson, RF | ATL | 1.5* |
Manny Banuelos, LHP | ATL | 1.4 |
Jorge Bonifacio, RF | KCR | 1.3 |
Aristides Aquino, RF | CIN | 1.1 |
Austin Wilson, RF | SEA | 1.1 |
Sean Reid-Foley, RHP | TOR | 1.0* |
Tyrell Jenkins, RHP | ATL | 0.8 |
Amir Garrett, LHP | CIN | 0.7 |
Matt Chapman, 3B | OAK | 0.6 |
Taylor Guerrieri, RHP | TBR | 0.5* |
Gilbert Lara, 3B | MIL | N/A |
Roberto Baldoquin, SS | LAA | N/A |
Yoan Lopez, RHP | ARZ | N/A |
Chris works in economic development by day, but spends most of his nights thinking about baseball. He writes for Pinstripe Pundits, FanGraphs and The Hardball Times. He's also on the twitter machine: @_chris_mitchell None of the views expressed in his articles reflect those of his daytime employer.
Great article…I am curious to where Bobby Bradley would have rated if he were in the top 200. My guess is that is would be a huge number.
7.8 WAR. Very small sample, but hit for lots of power (.290 ISO), which KATOH likes. His K% drags him down a bit though.