KATOH Projections for Prospects 143-200

A couple of days ago, I examined how the players listed on Kiley McDaniel’s top 200 list graded out according to KATOH — my prospect projection system. Well, not exactly. I actually examined how his top 142 prospects — those that he ranked — graded out according to KATOH. I left off the 58 honorable mentions who just missed the cut for receiving a full writeup. Each of these guys received a 45+ FV rating from McDaniel, which means their most likely to peak as weak everyday players or back-end starters. Think Charlie Blackmon or Mike Leake. While none of the names listed below are likely to be stars, or even average regulars, all of them are pretty good bets to make at least some sort of big league impact.

These 45+ prospects receive an average projection of around 3.5WAR, which is about a half-win higher than the prospects who ranked in the back half of Kiley’s top 142. However, this group’s average is helped substantially by Alex Verdugo and Gleyber Torres, who both receive projections north of 10. While this sounds impressive, keep in mind that Verdugo’s and Torres’ projections stem from ~200 rookie ball plate appearances, and should therefore be taken with several grains of salt. KATOH comes in very high on guys like Verdugo, Torres, and a few others, but on the aggregate, it pegs prospects 143-200 to be nothing more than a bunch of role players.

So here’s the list. Projections that were calculated using fewer than 200 plate appearances or batters faced are marked with an asterisk (*). The players who did not play in 2014  are at the bottom of the list, and were denoted with “N/A”.

Player Team KATOH WAR thru age 28
Alex Verdugo, RF LAD 10.8
Gleyber Torres, SS CHC 10.6
Ketel Marte, SS SEA 8.6
Domingo Santana, RF HOU 8.2
Jomar Reyes, 3B BAL 7.4
Matt Olson, 1B OAK 7.2
Alen Hanson, SS PIT 7
Magneuris Sierra, CF STL 5.4
Rafael Montero, RHP NYM 5.3
Rob Refsnyder, 2B NYY 5
Billy Mckinney, LF CHC 4.7
Rymer Liriano, RF SDP 4.5
Randal Grichuk, RF STL 4.4
Zach Davies, RHP BAL 4.4
Jacob Lamb, 3B ARZ 4.2
Andrew Velazquez, SS ARZ 3.9
Christian Arroyo, SS SFG 3.9
Lewis Thorpe, LHP MIN 3.9
Renato Nunez, 3B OAK 3.9
Clint Coulter, RF MIL 3.8
J.T. Realmuto, C MIA 3.8
Devon Travis, 2B TOR 3.6
A.J. Cole, RHP WSH 3.4
Steven Moya, RF DET 3.4
Edwin Diaz, RHP SEA 3.3
Monte Harrison, CF MIL 3.1
Garin Cecchini, 3B BOS 2.7
Christian Walker, 1B BAL 2.6
Reese Mcguire, C PIT 2.6
Corey Knebel, RHP MIL 2.3*
Michael Chavis, 3B BOS 2.3*
Alex Colome, RHP TBR 2.2
Matt Barnes, RHP BOS 2.2
Yorman Rodriguez, RF CIN 2.2
Dominic Smith, 1B NYM 2.1
Trey Michalczewski, 3B CHW 2.1
Brent Honeywell, RHP TBR 2.1*
Deven Marrero, SS BOS 2
Zach Eflin, RHP PHI 1.9
Blake Snell, LHP TBR 1.7
Tyrone Taylor, CF MIL 1.7
Chris Anderson, RHP LAA 1.6
Daniel Vogelbach, 1B CHC 1.6
Tyler Anderson, LHP COL 1.6
Wilmer Difo, SS WSH 1.5
Braxton Davidson, RF ATL 1.5*
Manny Banuelos, LHP ATL 1.4
Jorge Bonifacio, RF KCR 1.3
Aristides Aquino, RF CIN 1.1
Austin Wilson, RF SEA 1.1
Sean Reid-Foley, RHP TOR 1.0*
Tyrell Jenkins, RHP ATL 0.8
Amir Garrett, LHP CIN 0.7
Matt Chapman, 3B OAK 0.6
Taylor Guerrieri, RHP TBR 0.5*
Gilbert Lara, 3B MIL N/A
Roberto Baldoquin, SS LAA N/A
Yoan Lopez, RHP ARZ N/A





Chris works in economic development by day, but spends most of his nights thinking about baseball. He writes for Pinstripe Pundits, FanGraphs and The Hardball Times. He's also on the twitter machine: @_chris_mitchell None of the views expressed in his articles reflect those of his daytime employer.

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dknj
9 years ago

Great article…I am curious to where Bobby Bradley would have rated if he were in the top 200. My guess is that is would be a huge number.