KATOH Projects Pittsburgh’s Return for Andrew McCutchen

by
January 15, 2018

The Giants have acquired outfielder Andrew McCutchen in exchange for Kyle Crick and Bryan Reynolds. Below are the KATOH projections for Pittsburgh’s newest prospects.

Note that the WAR figures here account for each player’s first six major-league seasons. KATOH denotes the stats-only version of the projection system, while KATOH+ denotes the methodology that includes a player’s prospect rankings.

*****

Bryan Reynolds, OF (Profile)
KATOH: 1.3 WAR
KATOH+: 1.7 WAR

The Giants selected Reynolds in the second round of the 2016 draft. He’s hit relatively well in the lower rungs of the minor leagues, but has done so with relatively high strikeout rates, which KATOH doesn’t like. He spent 2017 in High-A, where he slashed .312/.364/.462 and played primarily center field. While that line looks good on paper, it was helped quite a bit by a .376 BABIP. It also came in the hitter-friendly Cal League, where he only managed a .152 ISO. Reynolds has interesting tools, however, and nearly cracked Eric Longenhagen’s top-100 list last winter.

Bryan Reynolds Mahalanobis Comps
Rank Name Proj. WAR Actual WAR
1 Andre Ethier 1.8 17.4
2 Miguel Negron 0.7 0.0
3 Choo Freeman 1.1 0.2
4 Steve Moss 1.1 0.0
5 Vic Buttler 1.8 0.0
6 Dan McKinley 1.1 0.0
7 Chris Durbin 1.1 0.0
8 Benny Agbayani 1.0 3.2
9 McKay Christensen 0.8 0.3
10 Jaisen Randolph 1.2 0.0

*****

Kyle Crick, RHP (Profile)
KATOH: 2.0 WAR
KATOH+: 1.4 WAR

Crick was a flame-throwing prospect a few years ago but fell off the prospect radar after his command failed to really develop and his performance stagnated in the upper levels. As a result, Eric didn’t even mention him in the “Others of Note” section of his Giants list last winter. KATOH still regarded him as mildly interesting, however, simply because he existed as a 23-year-old starter at Double-A. He benefited from a move to the bullpen last year, and wound up throwing 32 serviceable big-league innings last summer.

Kyle Crick Mahalanobis Comps
Rank Name KATOH WAR
1 Randy Wells 1.7 5.6
2 Johan Lopez 1.9 0.0
3 Adam Johnson 1.5 0.0
4 Scott Stewart 2.2 2.2
5 Manuel Barrios 2.7 0.0
6 Tom Wegmann 2.0 0.0
7 Vladimir Nunez 2.1 2.6
8 Bob Ayrault 1.3 0.4
9 Yorkis Perez 2.6 1.1
10 Adam Butler 2.1 0.0





 

Chris works in economic development by day, but spends most of his nights thinking about baseball. He writes for Pinstripe Pundits, FanGraphs and The Hardball Times. He's also on the twitter machine: @_chris_mitchell None of the views expressed in his articles reflect those of his daytime employer.

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Dominikk85member
6 years ago

Btw I wonder what Eric likes about Reynolds? Pretty lackluster K/BB ratio, an arm limited to left field and so far mediocre power. The latter might grow a little and he actually has improved his K rate but I don’t see what is exciting about a soon 23 year old left fielder in high A ball who may be developing 20 HR power.

But then again that is why we have scouts, sometimes stats don’t tell the whole story and and there probably is a reason he waswas drafted second round.

I guess we should trust Eric here.

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sadtrombonemember
6 years ago
Reply to  Dominikk85

He wrote it up in last year’s Pirates section. He thinks Reynolds will grow into power, has a decent hit tool, and isn’t below average on any tool except his arm.

He was actually a first round talent, who the Giants got with an overslot deal (some concerns about signability).

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