KATOH Projects the Scott Alexander Return

by
January 5, 2018

The Dodgers, Royals, and White Sox swung a three-team, six-player trade yesterday involving relievers Scott Alexander, Luis Avilan, and Joakim Soria plus three prospects: Trevor Oaks, Erick Mejia and Jake Peter.

Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel have provided scouting reports for the prospects changing hands. Below are the KATOH projections for those same players. WAR figures account for each player’s first six major-league seasons. KATOH denotes the stats-only version of the projection system, while KATOH+ denotes the methodology that includes a player’s prospect rankings.

*****

Trevor Oaks, RHP, Kansas City (Profile)

KATOH: 3.4
KATOH+: 2.6

Oaks caught KATOH’s eye last year when he put up a 2.74 ERA with decent peripherals across 24 starts in the Dodgers system. An oblique injury effectively ended his 2017 season in July, but not before he recorded a 3.49 FIP and 21% strikeout rate in 84 Triple-A innings. Oaks turns 25 in March but has succeeded as a starter at the highest level of the minors.

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Trevor Oaks Mahalanobis Comps
Rank Player Proj. WAR Actual WAR
1 Rusty Meacham 3.3 2.6
2 Billy Buckner 2.6 0.6
3 Doug Bochtler 5.0 0.8
4 Luis de los Santos 2.5 0.0
5 Noah Lowry 4.6 6.0
6 Jae Kuk Ryu 5.0 0.0
7 John Hope 4.2 0.0
8 Aaron Small 4.0 0.7
9 Andrew Lorraine 4.2 1.2
10 Heath Phillips 3.1 0.0

*****

Erick Mejia, IF, Kansas City (Profile)

KATOH: 2.0
KATOH+: 0.9

Mejia hit .278/.344/.397 in the minors last year, with most of that coming at the Dodgers’ Double-A affiliate. While not terribly impressive on its own, that slash line isn’t bad coming from a shortstop in the upper levels of the minors. Good defensive infielders needn’t hit much to stick around, and Mejia’s proven he can hold his own at the Double-A level.

Erick Mejia Mahalanobis Comps
Rank Player Proj. WAR Actual WAR
1 Lou Collier 2.2 0.6
2 Hiram Bocachica 1.8 0.5
3 Oscar Salazar 1.2 0.5
4 Jason Maxwell 1.1 0.1
5 Diory Hernandez 1.6 0.0
6 Ray Holbert 1.3 0.0
7 Melvin Dorta 1.9 0.0
8 Willie Bloomquist 1.6 2.5
9 Kurt Abbott 2.0 2.8
10 Travis Dawkins 1.0 0.0

*****

Jake Peter, 2B, Los Angeles (NL) (Profile)

KATOH: 1.3
KATOH+: 0.9

Peter slashed a healthy .279/.344/.417 between Double-A and Triple-A with the White Sox last year but did so with a bloated 24% strikeout rate. As a soon-to-be 25-year-old second baseman with contact issues, Peter likely won’t be a terribly productive big leaguer.

Jake Peter Mahalanobis Comps
Rank Player Proj. WAR Actual WAR
1 J.P. Roberge 0.8 0.0
2 Juan Melo 1.0 0.0
3 Darrel Deak 0.8 0.0
4 Ruben Santana 1.0 0.0
5 Warren Morris 1.4 2.8
6 Jed Hansen 1.2 0.0
7 Kevin Howard 1.4 0.0
8 Jim Chamblee 1.0 0.0
9 Hernan Iribarren 0.8 0.0
10 Brendan Harris 1.0 3.4





 

Chris works in economic development by day, but spends most of his nights thinking about baseball. He writes for Pinstripe Pundits, FanGraphs and The Hardball Times. He's also on the twitter machine: @_chris_mitchell None of the views expressed in his articles reflect those of his daytime employer.

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