Lefties Can’t Touch Taylor Rogers

If one were to go to Minor League Central, navigate to the 2013 High-A pitching stats against lefty batters, and sort by SIERA with a minimum of 30 innings (against lefties), Taylor Rogers — a pitcher in the Twins organization — ranks first. If one were to repeat this exercise for Double-A in 2014, using a minimum of 35 innings, Rogers also rises to the top. For Triple-A in 2015 with a minimum of 25 innings? Rogers again!

I’ll admit I chose those innings limits somewhat arbitrarily to make sure Rogers’ name was at the tippy-top, but you get the idea: Rogers has baffled minor league lefties. Since he began his pro career back in 2012, Rogers has spun an excellent 2.01 SIERA against southpaws.

Unless you’re Twins fan, there’s a good chance you’ve never even heard of Rogers. As a 11th round draft pick with unspectacular stuff, he’s never gotten run in prospect circles. And despite his dominance against lefties, his overall minor league numbers fall short of elite. His 2.01 SIERA against lefties has come with a 4.36 mark versus right-handers. He’s posted ERAs of 2.86, 3.29 and 3.18 the last three years. Those numbers are good, but aren’t overly exciting coming from a guy who’s been consistently old for his level.

Unsurprisingly, Kiley McDaniel didn’t rank Rogers all too favorably heading into the year. He ranked him the 21st best prospect in the Twins system and gave him a 40 FV — the equivalent of a swing man or middle reliever. Here’s what Kiley had to say about Rogers at the time:

Surrounded on this list by power relievers, it’s hard to get excited about Rogers, but he has a chance to be a big league starter. He sits 90-93 and hits 94 mph with an average curveball and fringy change that needs to improve, though he has the command to make it work as a back-end starter.

Simply put, Rogers isn’t a very exciting prospect. He throws in the low-90s, his secondary stuff isn’t anything special and he didn’t reach Triple-A until his age-24 season. Literally every organization has multiple guys who fit that mold. However, Rogers’ performance against left-handed hitters makes him more interesting than most nondescript Triple-A pitchers.

With an ERA in the low 3’s, Rogers is one of the better starting pitchers in Triple-A right now. More likely than not, he’ll get a crack at the majors at some point this year. And looking at the Minnesota’s bullpen, Rogers should be able to provide the Twins with a nice little upgrade for the stretch run, even if it’s only as a lefty specialist.

I feel pretty confident in saying that Rogers isn’t going to make any All-Star teams. He may not even be good enough to hack it as a back-end starter. But given his minor league performance, it’s hard to think he couldn’t at least make it as a LOOGY. That’s not nothing. And for a 11th round pick who’s an afterthought on his organization’s prospect list, becoming a LOOGY wouldn’t be a bad outcome at all.





Chris works in economic development by day, but spends most of his nights thinking about baseball. He writes for Pinstripe Pundits, FanGraphs and The Hardball Times. He's also on the twitter machine: @_chris_mitchell None of the views expressed in his articles reflect those of his daytime employer.

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Anonymous
8 years ago

This is the exact sort of article I imagined when you guys pitched the idea of Instagraphs. Little delicious baseball nuggets of goodness.

#KeepNotGraphs
#AlsoKeepInstagraphs