Manny Machado Is Now Obviously a Dodger
(Photo: Keith Allison)
After a few days of something more substantive than speculation, the Baltimore Orioles and Los Angeles Dodgers appear finally to have conducted official business with each other. Eduardo A. Encina and Ken Rosenthal outline the particulars of that business via social-media platform twitter dot com:
Machado to #Dodgers will happen. Agreement has been made, according to industry source. #Orioles receiving five players back. Finalizing minor details of deal took longer given number of players involved.
— Eduardo A. Encina (@EddieInTheYard) July 18, 2018
Orioles getting Diaz, Kramer, Bannon, Pop, Valera, source tells The Athletic.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 18, 2018
At the very center of the trade, of course, is Manny Machado, one of the best major leaguers currently authoring one of his best major-league seasons. Machado will help the Dodgers address a shortstop position that has created uncertainty for the club ever since starter Corey Seager was forced to undergo Tommy John surgery at the beginning of May. Machado is projected for slightly more than two wins over the rest of season — about a win more than Chris Taylor (who’s received most of the starts at short in Seager’s absence) and also about a win more than a combination of Cody Bellinger, Enrique Hernandez, and Joc Pederson (who’ve received most of the center-field starts with Taylor at short).
Just this week, Machado appeared in the honorable-mention section of Kiley McDaniel’s trade-value series for 2018, about as high as a player with just a half-season of control would reasonably appear. As for Baltimore’s return, it certainly doesn’t lack for quantity.
Here it is, with players listed in alphabetical order:
- 3B Rylan Bannon
- OF Yusniel Diaz
- RHP Dean Kremer
- RHP Zach Pop
- 2B/3B Breyvic Valera
Diaz is the greatest talent here, ranked 11th by Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel in their audit of the Dodgers system back in May, a document in which he received basically average grades across the board. Valera also earned a place among the top 23 in that organization, notable for his bat-to-ball skills and ability to play shortstop (adequately, if not with great distinction). Bannon and Kremer have both outperformed their pedigrees this year, the latter earning a pair of appearances among the Fringe Five this season. Of Zach Pop, this author has nothing constructive to add.
Jeff Sullivan will publish a more substantive analysis of the trade this evening and lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen will offer reports on the new Orioles, as well. Will other trade-related content appear in these pages? The contingency is likely.
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Carson writes = I smile. Concise work, Sir!
Two wins = $16m = five prospects?
I’d imagine there’s a premium on wins at the trade deadline for a contending team.
Yusniel Diaz is no Gleyber Torres but the cost of truly elite rentals that are unique assets/fits is quite high indeed. Machado is a HOF level talent and the bidding certainly was vigorous w/ 3-4 teams pretty credibly in and the PHI/LAD rumors alternating with consistency.
When you’re the Dodgers you can afford this and if the object is winning the WS I like this upgrade a lot since it pushes Taylor to CF and Joc/Enrique to the 4th OF / super-utility roles they are really suited for. That’s most of a pretty strong playoff roster bench right there.
I’d guess it’ll move Taylor more to the 2b position and get Forsythe and Utley and their black hole out of the lineup.
to expand on this- Dodgers 2b this season have a 67 wRC+. and a .659 OPS/87 OPS+. 7 hr in the 1st half…
And of that- a lot of it is due to Max Muncy in 9 games. 288 OPS+ in those 9 games, 263 wRC+, and 4 of those 7 hr hit by 2b.
I think the lineup looks like Muncy at 1b, Taylor 2b, Machado ss, Turner 3b- and then Bellinger moving into the OF pushing Joc/Enrique to that 4th OF/super utility role that you’re talking about.
So far this year Joc and Enrique have been better than Puig. It might be tough to bench them when Puig isn’t hitting any better and is fielding much worse.
If those 2 wins mean the difference between making the playoffs and spending $190m to not make the playoffs… plus a guy who can make a legit difference in the playoffs.
And supply and demand and all that.
Isn’t it only a marginal difference of 1 win?
only if Machado will primarily be taking PAs away from Taylor, and that seems doubtful
This marks the 2nd time in the last decade that the Dodgers traded for Manny, who played in the AL east
Oof.
Is it possible that Machado will set the record for negative DRS this season at SS?
What I find really startling about these “rental” players is that they aren’t added to teams to help them reach the playoffs, they are added to help teams during the playoffs. This has been the case with guys like Miller, Chapman, Verlander, and Darvish. In a sense these guys are only there to help win eleven games. Looking back on it as a Cubs fan, the Cubs knew they would win the division, but they gave up seven years of Gybler Torres so that Chapman would pitch in 13 games. It looks like this is exactly what the Dodgers are doing for Machado. If that’s not mindboggling I don’t know what is.
I think this may be a bit different in that it also would hopefully guarantee for Dodger fans that they win the division. Don’t think if you’re a Dodgers fan you would want your entire season to rest on the 1 Wild Card game, where even if you win that you don’t have Kershaw first 2 games of the LDS. To be able to go from possibly being in the Wild Card game to now maybe getting to play the winner of the Wild Card game in the LDS would be a huge difference.
I really hadn’t considered the idea that anyone but the Dodgers could win the NL West. Especially since the Dodgers have such a large lead in things like WAR, RunDiff, and WRC+ over the other teams in their division. I figured it was only a matter of time before the discrepancies started showing up in the standings. You can never be careful though. What do you think were the chances the Dodgers didn’t win the division before the trade?
I’m always surprised that more isn’t mentioned of Machado’s career road 104 wRC+. He has hit 99 home HR and 63 road HR. Not to rip the guy, just sayin’ . . .
His Home/Away splits aren’t comforting in a bandbox like he plays in.
I was unaware. Thanks for that, it’s very relevant to the conversation and, now that I know, I’m wondering the same thing…why isn’t more made of it? Dodger Stadium plays about neutral these days, so I suppose the best guess is that he’ll put up about a 104 wRC+ there? And since he effectively replaces the 67 wRC+ currently in the lineup at 2b, that’s huge. Still…I just assumed he was quite a bit higher.
I watch a lot of Dodger games and have been surprised how well Bellinger has looked in CF. Muncy has hands of stone, he’s horrible at 2b (even Dave Roberts acknowledged when announcing he was going to be the regular there that they were only tolerating the defense because of the offense). Anyway,, I’m thinking they’ll move Muncy to 1B, Taylor to 2B, and keep Bellinger in CF. Probably keep Kike in against left-hand pitching, too.
I think it isn’t mentioned much because home/road splits are pretty sticky. Also, just browsing year-to-year, it certainly seems the last couple years he’s had more success at home, but in 2016 his splits were identical.
I just don’t imagine major league analytics departments put much stock in it (other than Coors).
#Coors …. wait no..