Mariners, Orioles Swap Declining Role Players
The Mariners, after trading Taijuan Walker away in the Jean Segura deal, have been looking for a back-end starting pitcher. How desperate were they? Well, desperate enough to take a pitcher that the Baltimore Orioles — who have one of the worst rotations in baseball — didn’t want to keep around.
The deal, as announced by both teams, is a straight-up swap of Seth Smith for Yovani Gallardo, with the Orioles including some cash in the deal, though Dan Connolly reports the Orioles save about $4 million in the deal, so the cash doesn’t offset the price differences. In Smith, the Orioles are getting a guy who can play right field against right-handed pitching; he doesn’t field well or hit lefties enough to justify an everyday job, but as the strong side of a platoon, he’s a decent role player. Given that the Orioles current right fielder was Joey Rickard, Smith is an upgrade over a replacement level hole, and picking him up at a reasonable price makes plenty of sense for Baltimore.
For the Mariners, this is a bit weirder. Yeah, they needed another arm for the rotation, since the back-end was pretty thin, but it’s not entirely clear that Gallardo is actually much better than what they already had. After a nice run with Milwaukee at the beginning of his career, Gallardo transitioned more into an innings-eater in 2013, and things have been steadily downhill since then.
As the strikeouts disappeared, Gallardo survived by avoiding walks, but even that went away last year, when he posted the second highest walk rate of his career. His stuff has diminished to the point that he’s now a nibbler, but he doesn’t get swings and misses out of the zone anymore.
His in-zone contact rates are fairly steady (though worse than in his prime), but the lack of whiffs out of the zone means that Gallardo doesn’t really have any way to put batters away anymore, and so now he’s just a pitch-to-contact guy who doesn’t throw enough strikes.
If you want to be optimistic, you can look at his prior track record of success and his age, and hope that maybe Gallardo can get some of his prior stuff back, but the trends here are all negative. As a guy who throws 90 and doesn’t have an out pitch or plus command, he’s really nothing more than a #5 starter at this point, and even that might be generous. And toss in the elbow problems that turned his initial three year deal with Baltimore into a two year deal following his physical, then landed him on the disabled list last year, he’s not even necessarily an innings sponge you can count on to stay healthy.
Perhaps when your internal options are Ariel Miranda or Nathan Karns, even Gallardo looks useful, but for a team looking to win in the short-term, they should probably do better than hand the ball to Gallardo every five days. Smith isn’t a huge loss, especially with the team having younger outfielders worth taking a look at, but this feels like moving a useful-but-flawed outfield for a less-useful-and-flawed pitcher. Sure, the Mariners needed a pitcher more, but unless they know how to get Gallardo’s velocity back, I’m not sure this is the arm they needed.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.


Are all the free agent starting pitchers asking for a ton of cash or something?
Well from what I can tell the list of free agent pitchers projected for more than YoGo’s 0.9 fWAR is T. Ross, J. Hammel, D. Fister, and J. de la Rosa. I guess if Ross isn’t totally broken and Hammel’s age doesn’t catch up they’d be better. There aren’t a ton of options for pitching depth out there.
Fister and de la Rosa were the two guys that struck me as interchangeable with Gallardo. I guess it’s not like Seth Smith has significant trade value anyway and they seemed like they decided he had to go.
Dave, what are your thoughts on how this impacts the Mariners’ OF?
Not Dave, but it’s pretty clear that the “impact” is that either Cruz will get a lot of games in RF, they’ll make another move for an OF, or both corner OFs will be manned by young guys with little to no MLB track record. Martin’s got CF for as long as he’s healthy, with either Gamel or Heredia as his backup. The names in the COF mix are Cruz, Haniger (probably almost guaranteed a starting spot absent a disastrous Spring), Gamel/Heredia, and Motter, with O’Neill as the wild card. Boog Powell’s still out there, but I think he’s been passed on the depth chart by the other guys.
Doesn’t inspire a huge amount of confidence. With available talent, best case scenario is probably that Haniger translates his MiLB breakout to the majors and O’Neill destroys AAA pitching to start the year and is productive in Seattle for 2/3 the season (I don’t see him jumping straight from AA to the bigs, even with a great Spring).
I guess the other option is Valencia spending a lot of time in the OF, but that means committing to Vogelbach at 1B fulltime. Not sure the team’s ready to do that.
I finally had a chance to sit & look at the Mariners after the Dyson trade. Assuming you believe the scouting reports that say Haniger is athletic enough to play a passable CF, if you put him in RF and have the Dyson platooon in LF, both combined w/ Martin makes that probably the best defensive OF in baseball.
Assuming you believe Segura’s -2.1 Def last year was an aberration and he’s more like the +2 to +4 Def player he was his whole career, when you combine him with Seager, Cano and Zunino, you have a very good defensive IF. Vogelbach is what he is.
But it looks pretty clear that by shedding Lind, Smith, Aoki and bringing in Haniger, Dyson & Segura, DiPoto’s going for a really good hitting/defense team that should be competitive enough in AL West.
This looks like a team that will sneak into the Wild Card or could take the division if Texas hits some injuries.
This is Jerry DiPoto, we’re talking about. He changes his roster more often than he changes his socks.
Oh look, there’s another one!
And his name is Jarrod Dyson!
Is Karns injury of a nature that it’s reasonable to expect him to be a worse pitcher going forward? Because the expectations/reputation for him seem to have radically declined in the last six months, for reasons I don’t understand. He seems like, obviously, a *much* better option than Gallardo, in terms of stuff and results. He misses bats at a reasonable rate and has a FIP of ~4 over well over a season’s worth of playing time. What’s am I missing with Karns?
Say that Karns does prove to be the #5. Trading away a platoon OF for a #6 SP who spends his share of time in Tacoma won’t be the move that keeps the M’s out of the World Series
Karns may be a #5, but he’ll be a #5 for the Royals. Because what the Mariners need is less starting pitching.
The M’s should sign Jose Bautista, who is a much more substantial upgrade short term than Hammel or anyone else would have been.
It’s a very sad offseason when a trade involving players this worthless is the most interesting thing available to write an article about.
I think maybe you mean “it’s a sad point in the offseason”. This has been a pretty exciting offseason in general and there have certainly been more interesting moves than this for the M’s alone (i.e. Segura trade, Alex Jackson trade).
Obviously we’re just speculating when it comes to what the FA arms are asking for in terms of $ and years, but dealing Smith for prospects and using that 7M toward Hammel etc. seems smarter.
This is essentially the 3rd one-for-one swap between the O’s and the M’s in the past year (the others being Trumbo-Clevenger and Miley-Miranda). The two orgs must have a good rapport.
If Smith’s D doesn’t rebound then he’s as useless as Gallardo. So that’s worth throwing out. Also Gallardo can have lousy peripherals, but if Safeco can help mask some of it and he puts up a decent RA/9 WAR then the M’s might come out ahead.
Probably ends up being a meaningless swap but I’m surprised there wasn’t an equal focus on how awful Smith could be. Last year he was a 0.5 WAR guy, and he hit just as well as he did in 2015. So his defence totally dragged down his value. If his fielding has declined and this is closer to his talent level, then he’s a DH who will most likely end up in RF. Or a DH who can’t hit enough to justify a platoon role.
Safeco’s not as much of the extreme pitcher’s park it used to be.
But it’s better than Camden and playing most of your road games at Rogers, Fenway, Yankee Stadium, I’d bet.
Fair enough, and moreover, swapping one of those road parks for Oakland will help even more.
FWIW, RF in OPACY is one of the best OF spots in the league to hide a limited defender. Small foul area and short distances to foul pole and right-center mean less ground to cover than almost any other corner OF spot in baseball.
His usefulness as a batter is largely dependent on a team’s ability to platoon him. He’s likely still a good hitter in 2017 (even for a DH) as long as he’s only facing RHP.
Seth Smith isn’t going to make the All-Star game or anything but he seems like a classic savvy Dan Duquette value buy.
I’ve been showing this article to every M fan that says “He just had a bad year” No he’s been trending in the wrong direction for some time and on top of it He’s an injury concern.
Joey Rickard isn’t good, but in limited playing time so far, he’s had big splits: 134 wRC+ as a major leaguer vs LHP, vs 65 wRC+ vs RHP.
This move makes a lot of sense especially if the Orioles end up bringing back Mark Trumbo as the full time DH, and they seem to have the leg up there as both the only franchise that doesn’t need to surrender a draft pick for him and (apparently) the only franchise that’s interesting in signing him.
A lineup of
Smith/Rickard RF
Machado 3B
Jones CF
Davis 1B
Trumbo DH
Schoop 2B
Kim LF
Hardy SS
Joseph/Castillo C
Looks surprisingly potent.
So what this amounts for the Mariners is that they turn Nate Karns into Yovani Gallardo, and turn Seth Smith into Jarrod Dyson.
Yeah, that doesn’t look like much of an upgrade, does it?
No, but if it’s anything of an upgrade at all it’s reasonably sensible, no?
Depends on what you think of Karns, but it’s not clear to me he’s any worse than Gallardo and he’s a pre-arb guy who isn’t a free agent until 2021.
Despite posting a lousy ERA in 2016, Karns’ peripherals were nearly identical to his good 2015 campaign which might indicate he’s due to regress towards being a useful #4-5 starter again. In terms of value, Karns I think is the top player in both sets of trades just owing to his team control.
No instagraph on the Dyson trade yet, but Cameron summed up this one and that one on Twitter.
Coincidentally, Seth Smith was taken 4 picks after Yovani Gallardo in the 2nd round of the 2004 draft.
There certainly are more interesting arms out there that would likely provide more value for the Mariners. But if the better options were ridiculously priced in way of prospects, leaving Fister and Hammel as the alternatives via free agency, I can’t say I blame Dipoto for taking a chance here.
If the M’s get the 2015 version of Gallardo, they get that innings-eater they’ve wanted, with a reasonable FIP who keeps the ball in the park for an upgraded defense to handle.
With that said, it will be interesting to see if there’s a move for another rotation piece by the deadline.