Padres Acquire Matt Kemp
After a couple of weeks of rumors, the Padres have reportedly come to terms with the Dodgers on a deal that will bring Matt Kemp to San Diego.
San Diego Union-Tribune reporting agreement on Kemp to #Padres – Kemp and Federowicz plus about $30M for Grandal, Wieland and third player.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 11, 2014
Matt Kemp is due $107 million over the next five years, so if the Dodgers are kicking in $30 million, the Padres are essentially picking up Kemp at 5/$77M. The crowd estimated that the Dodgers would have to pick up $47 million in order to move Kemp, so the Dodgers have not only saved more money than expected, but also acquired several pieces of real talent in return.
The quick facts, then I’ll get started on a longer post analyzing the deal.
Kemp is 30 years old, so the Padres are picking up his age-30 to age-34 seasons. He has a career 128 wRC+, but a strong performance last year pushed that mark to 140, the 15th best total in MLB last year. Unfortunately, he also plays defense, and not particularly well, as Mike Petriello covered earlier this week. Kemp’s value as a corner outfielder will depend on whether he can be at least reasonable with the glove; if he can, the offensive production makes him an above average player. If he’s as bad defensively as the metrics have suggested, then Kemp is essentially an average player overall.
For the right to pay an aging, average — or maybe a bit better than average — big leaguer $77 million over the next five years, the Padres gave up Yasmani Grandal, Joe Wieland, and a third player.
Grandal is 26 and a switch-hitting catcher with a career 119 wRC+ in 777 plate appearances, though he’s been closer to above average than excellent at the plate the last two years. He controls the strike zone and has decent power, so he’s managed to be an above average hitter the last two years even as he’s run fairly low BABIPs. The big jump in his strikeout rate last year is a bit of a concern, as his contact rate fell to 75%, but at a .175 ISO, the power was strong enough to offset the rise in strikeouts.
Grandal also rates exceptionally well by catcher framing metrics, so while he’s not very good at controlling the running game, he may be a better defensive catcher than his reputation. Grandal is under team control for four more years, and will be eligible for arbitration next winter.
Joe Wieland is an interesting arm who hasn’t been able to stay healthy. He had Tommy John surgery in 2012, and then had surgery for a stress reaction in his elbow after a setback in his rehab. He’s missed most of the last two years, during which he’s been accruing Major League service time while on the DL, so he’s now a Super-Two arbitration player and will be eligible for free agency in four years.
The third player is unknown, but should probably be assumed to be a lesser piece.
2015 Steamer Projections
Matt Kemp: 555 PA, 128 wRC+, +2.1 WAR
Yasmani Grandal: 393 PA, 111 wRC+, +1.5 WAR
Joe Wieland: ? IP, 3.96 ERA, 0.0 WAR
I’ll have a full write-up on this soon, but suffice it to say that I love this trade for the Dodgers and don’t really get it at all for the Padres. They get a big right-handed slugger, but I’m not sure they got any better, and they spent $75 million for the right to be differently bad.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
I’m not sure what the Padres plan is. Do they believe they are close to contention?
My assumption is that they are having a hard time convincing hitters to sign there. They want to add offense, so making a trade was the best route for them. Kemp can definitely hit still, as he showed last year.
That being said, I’m not sure why they gave up as much in return as they did. I don’t believe the prospects they are giving back will amount to much, but why give away lottery tickets unless you have to. I still think the Dodgers came out way ahead on this deal. Clears a headache for them in the OF, and gives them a young catcher to run out there.
They needed a veteran RF to draw fans and add a veteran presence to a young team. Great move for the Padres.
I think they see themselves as sort of a west coast Mets with young starting pitching (Cashner, Ross, Despaigne) that can lead them to contention if they can just assemble any semblance of an offense. Taking into account that it’s very difficult to lure free agent hitters to Petco and if they believe there’s not immediate help on the way from the farm, a deal for a hitter like Kemp as not just a 1 or 2 year acquisition but someone they can build around longer term does make some sense to me. They probably don’t buy that Kemp is as bad defensively as UZR suggests if you just keep him in LF, they know he can hit at Petco (.867 ops in 234 career PAs there), and Grandal was expendable because they like Rene Rivera better anyway. I’ll be in the minority I’m sure but I think this is actually going to turn out to be a good deal for both teams.
The fact that it’s the Padres is the part that puzzles me. Well that, and the pieces going back to the Dodgers.
As far as Kemp’s value goes, I don’t think paying him $77M/5 is *that* crazy. He’s maybe a top-25 offensive player. The only problem is obviously his rapid defensive decline. But we know defensive stats in a small sample aren’t very reliable, so it’s very difficult to judge how much his defense actually hurts.
So let’s play a game and not consider him an outfielder at all. Over the past 3 seasons (134 wRC+), he would have been worth 3.1 WAR-per-600-PA’s if he were a league-average defensive 1Bman. If he were a DH, it’d work out to 2.5 WAR/600. That’s a pretty good player. Not worth $77M/5 plus a couple of cost-controlled youngsters. But a 3 WAR player is arguably worth $77M/5, especially when you consider the way $/WAR is working out this offseason and the fact that offense always costs more than defense.
But the Padres aren’t rich, aren’t competing, and can’t use him at DH. If this were a competitive American League team with money to burn, and the guys coming back to LA weren’t significant, it’d be reasonable for that team to be on the hook for $77M/5.
Rumor has it that Wieland and Z. Eflin, the two pitchers going to LA, might be shipped to Philly as part of a Hamels + Rollins deal.
That trade is physically impossible. There is not enough physical space in the universe that could contain my sadness if that is the haul the Phillies get for Hamels AND Rollins. The universe would literally invert itself if that’s the deal, killing everything that exists; as such, the commissioner would never approve it.
They’d just be two of the four prospects going to Philly. Rumor has it that Zach Lee is one of the Dodger prospects going there. Not sure about the others, or how many.
two of the four or more prospects going to Philly*
Oh.
take this junk to MLBTR
I liked Z. Elfin in “The Neighbors”. He has come a long way since High School Musical.
This is a sheer business move by them. They need a name to fill some seats. No top free agent will sign there, so they have to make deals like this. From an on-the-field perspective the deal is terrible, but from a business standpoint it probably looks better, although there’s no real way to know that. Essentially the same thing as when Steinbrenner and Levine went over Cashman’s head and gave Ichiro a two year deal. Had nothing to do with baseball, all about business.
The past 24 hours have been Schrodinger’s Dodgers.
The only way this move makes sense is if the Padres are SURE that Grandal will be a full-time 1B in the near future. He’s already suffered a nasty ACL/MCL injury, and when he came back he had changed his stance to keep pressure of his legs. He rates well in framing, but I know that at least Cashner didn’t like throwing to him. I believe Tyson Ross went to Rivera, also.
I’m a Padre fan, and this is all I can say to keep from screaming.
No one can stop the Friars! Kemptastic!
Love this trade for the Padres.
Perhaps there’s the factor of the new Padres administration cleaning house and getting rid of players who’ve been tied to PEDs?
Grandal is a former PED user. He was busted in 2012 and served a 50 game suspension.
Can Kemp play 1B? Bizarre trade.
Hawat says Kemp won’t play 1B 🙂
All of you who think the Dodgers are getting hooked up here are out of your minds. Been spoiled by Kemp all these years and don’t even realize he has been carrying you.
Grandal can’t hit without steroids
Wieland is a fringe back of the rotation guy at best with major throwing arm injury concerns (+ Padres are flooded with guys exactly like Wieland)
Eflin is an under performing former first round pick
Kemp is a superstar in his prime. Yes, he has injury and defense concerns, but he exploded second half of 14′. Plus, with the money the Dodgers are throwing in, Padres will pay Kemp 15 million a year. You can’t find free agents with Kemp’s upside at that price. Very reasonable contract with the money being sent to SD compensating for the injury risk.
Federowics hasn’t proven a damn thing in the majors yet, but has some very respectable minor league numbers and several more years under team control. I think he is a sneaky x factor in this trade. Could be a late bloomer, much like Renee Rivera.
I see this as an ALL DAY move for the Padres and wonder wtf the Dodgers are thinking. They have now lost Dee Gordon, Matt Kemp and Hanley Ramirez from what was one of the best teams in baseball last year. How does this make them any better?
The SABR community’s reaction to the Matt Kemp trade, from the Padres perspective, has basically ranged from dismissive to contemptuous. Matt Kemp has been one of the best hitters in baseball throughout his career, even considering his admittedly considerable injury history. (Speaking of injury histories, why is Kemp’s such an issue for these guys, but a 26 year old catcher with knee problems seems to be little more than a flesh wound to them?) Even more critically, Matt Kemp was one of the best hitters in baseball throughout the second half of the year- arthritic hips and all- and one of the main reasons the Dodgers didn’t get swept in the 2014 NLDS. (I know, I know- playoffs are a crapshoot…unless you’re Ned Colletti, of course, in which case it’s a cause worthy of demotion.) The Padres, starved for offensive, basically got someone who, when healthy, has been one of the most productive hitters in the National League- from one of their toughest division competitors, no less- AND $30 million thrown into the deal. Matt Kemp played on a team that finished 17 games ahead of the Padres, yet to these “analytic experts”, it was basically in spite of, not because of Kemp, according to their WAR, ISO, wRC+, and other abstract measurements of success. And please spare me the talk of “pitch framing”. The Dodgers had one of the best staffs in baseball in 2014, and while pitch framing might be a critical measure of success to these guys, it doesn’t come close to making up for the lack of throwing ability and ability to stay healthy that Grandal brings along with him. (Let’s not forget the Tim Federowicz had a monster year at AAA, which is being completely dismissed, while the Dodgers use Joc Pederson’s success there as grounds for a promotion to the big leagues. But that’s for a whole other discussion.)
To me, Kemp being one of the most valuable players on the Dodgers, finishing 17 games ahead of a team where Grandal was one of the better players in his team, speaks volumes. To these guys, it’s a cause worthy of ridicule. Time will tell, and these snarky assessments, unlike the ones used by the same crowd against the Royals in the Myers-for-Shields trade, will not be forgotten.
Well that didn’t work out for you