Padres Trade Hanigan for Middlebrooks, Sign Ross
The never-ending transaction wheel in San Diego has continued to spin this morning. In the wake of acquiring Matt Kemp, Wil Myers, and Justin Upton, the Padres have now set their sights on remaking their infield. First stop was to find a new third baseman, and the team has shockingly settled on a defensively challenged right-handed slugger with contact issues. Will Middlebrooks played his way out of Boston even before the team signed Pablo Sandoval to replace him, so he was clearly getting traded this winter; the Padres picked him up in exchange for Ryan Hanigan, who came over from the Rays.
Middlebrooks’ value will likely come down to his defense at third base. Steamer projects him as a league average hitter for 2015, a significant step up from what he’s done in Boston. A 97 wRC+ with solid defense at third base is a pretty nice role player, especially for the league minimum and with multiple years of team control.
That said, his defensive value isn’t so cut and dry. In just under 2,000 innings at third base, UZR thinks he’s been okay-ish, rating him at -3 runs per 150 games. However, DRS has him at -16 over the same time period, which would make him among the worst third baseman in baseball. With a sample this small, you certainly want to regress towards the mean, and so Middlebrooks should probably project as something closer to league average with the glove until we have more evidence that he’s not.
If he’s a decent enough defender, he’s a +1 to +2 WAR player with a little bit of upside. If he’s the butcher that DRS thinks, he’s Chris Johnson 2.0.
Still, the price was right to take the gamble, as Hanigan is a good defender who was displaced by last night’s acquisition of Derek Norris, and the team just signed David Ross to take over as the defensive half of the catcher tandem. Hanigan will be a useful player for the Red Sox, but the gap between what he provides and what the Padres will get from Ross isn’t huge, especially in a reserve role.
The Padres still have plenty of work to do to sort out a roster crowded with outfielders and heavy on right-handed hitters, but the Hanigan/Middlebrooks swap gives them a decent third baseman without dramatically downgrading their catching situation. This kind of offense-only-who-cares-about-defense philosophy is never going to win me over, but this part of the plan looks reasonable, at least.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
I honestly can’t keep up with their moves, but do they have a pitching staff that might be less hurt by awful defense? Like, three-true-outcomes pitchers (does that even exist)? Obviously, there will be many balls in play not converted to outs, but maybe they’re going to work to reduce balls in play?
I’m just trying to find logic in this madness.
More likely explanation: Padres management doesn’t believe in advanced defensive stats and/or the high value of defense.
I’m sure they believe in their value, but right now there is a high premium for defense. I’m guessing they are prioritizing the ability to hit the hell out of the ball, and are hoping Petco will help mitigate the effect of crappy defense.
The Padres think they have three 100 RBI guys with Kemp, Upton, and Myers.
I think it’s more that they think they have three 25 wRAA guys with Kemp, Upton and Myers, which outweighs the fact that they’ll combine for -30 UZR.
More likely is a nuanced perspective. They believe in advanced defensive statistics less than others do… Some goes with pitch framing. They obviously do not value it as much as other teams since they’ve traded away three of the top pitch framing catchers in the league within a few days.
I’m not very good at counting outfielders, but do they plan on using Matt Kemp as a full-time centerfielder?
Doubt it. People have always said that Myers could be a below-average-but-not-awful CF.
I’m wondering the same thing–maybe if they have a staff with high BB%, high K% and a high ground-ball rate, they can minimize the impact of their horrific defensive outfield?