Padres Reportedly Acquire Justin Upton
Well, this is fascinating. A day after finalizing the Matt Kemp trade, and on the day the Wil Myers trade is expected to be announced, the Padres have reportedly agreed to acquire Justin Upton as well. I think it’s safe to say that A.J. Preller puts a high value on right-handed power hitting outfielders.
As I see it, there are a few ways this could work.
1. The Padres are going to play either Wil Myers or Matt Kemp in center field. Myers came up as a CF in the minors, while Kemp has played mostly CF in the big leagues. If the Padres just really think defense is completely useless, this gets all three sluggers into the line-up and maximizes the team’s offense.
2. Either Kemp or Myers is going to go to first base, replacing Yonder Alonso, who doesn’t really fit into the mold of what the new Padres seem to value. Kemp would seem to be the better candidate, but Jeff Passan suggests that maybe Myers would be the guy heading to first base instead.
3. Wil Myers is getting traded again. As I speculated a few nights ago, there’s a fit between the Padres and Rangers for a Wil Myers-Jurickson Profar swap, assuming the two sides could agree on the other parts of the deal. The Rangers need a right fielder, the Padres need a shortstop, and both sides clearly have depth to trade from now.
Any of the three options would be kind of interesting, at least. The first option seems the most likely, and probably the worst, as punting outfield defense entirely just isn’t a very good plan. Kemp would be more valuable at first base than in the outfield, but swapping one of the newly acquired OFs for an SS might be the best plan of all. Clearly, the Padres aren’t done dealing just yet.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
A.J. Preller keeping it real! Keep that hot stove going! Woooooooooooooooo!
Dave, isn’t it possible that this means the Padres will reject the deal for Kemp on the basis of his physical and therefore Justin Upton is Kemp’s replacement in the lineup and field rather than a further addition?
Yelp, it looks like the Kemp deal is not finalized although it’s not clear to me from reading relevant articles if the Dodgers had to kick in additional money to get the Padres to sign off on Kemp’s physical.
Sorry, I meant “now” finalized in the post above.
The Dodgers announced the trade last night. No turning back now.
I hope they choose an option you didn’t mention above, they forego a centerfielder and play two guys in one corner and one in the other, or they have four outfielders and opt to use only one middle infielder!
They’d be better off going with a beer-league softball strategy of 4 outfielders and, I guess, 3 infielders. They could use a 1B, a SS, and then rotate a guy from 2B to 3B depending on whether the batter hits right-handed or left-handed. It’s a new form of the shift!
Just need a really fast 2B with great insticts, so that when the ball is hit to the left side of the infield, he can sprint over to first in time to cover. You also need the pitcher to cover first on any ball hit to 2B.
Gyorko has wheelz
If you’re going to punt outfield defense, wouldn’t it make sense to try that strategy in a ballpark with less real estate to cover?
This would seem to make options 2 and 3 more likely than 1. They do still have Venable and Maybin who can play CF better than Kemp, Myers, and Smith.
Petco Park doesn’t have a big OF:http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-major-league-baseball-ballpark-sizes-2014-3
People obviously think it does because of the difficulty scoring but it’s because the ball doesn’t carry. Either look at the above link or check the dimensions.
Yeah but the rest of the NL West does. Kemp playing CF in Coors Field is worth the price of admission, and that was before he got arthritis in his hips.
Does this mean that maybe Preller is right to not value OF defense at Petco? Does it mean that there are more routine defensive chances and fewer difficult chances? And maybe a miss on a difficult chance is less likely to hurt the Padres, since the subsequent hit necessary to complete the run is more difficult as well?
Also, does Yonder Alonso fit anybody’s mold at this point?
Alonso’s sub .300 oba and mediocre defense doesn’t do it for you?
The Padres are going to be interesting/confusing/hillarious to watch this year.
The Padres have plenty of time to figure their lineup out. More fire in the Hot Stove.
Could Myers spend the bulk of the year in AAA “proving he’s healthy” (delaying service?) and then be the full time replacement for Upton in 16?
You don’t acquire a 1 year rental and then not maximize your MLB lineup for that year.
It’ll probably be Derek Norris at 1B, right? And the Padres punting OF defense in one of the biggest pitchers’ parks in the game.
Oh my…
I’ll say this: Petco Park’s going to be an interesting place to watch a game. Even the pitchers’ duels will now be spent watching those outfielders chase balls to the wall.
CISTULLI YOUR BOY GOT TRADED
The questions is what do they do with Venable, Smith and Maybin?? Smith has three mare years on his contract, Maybin has three more years and Venable one more year. Not like the Padres to just dump money.
Maybin seems like a player that the Phillies should be targeting.
He’s really quite, replacement-y these days. And he costs real money.
sounds exactly like a Phillie
Cocaine is a hell of a drug
Man oh man, I have pretty strongly defended the Padres moves so far, but I think I’m officially baffled now. I like the way Marsupial said it, they’ll be “interesting/confusing/hillarious to watch.” Hey, even that’s an upgrade over the past couple of seasons!
Your third scenario above is what I’m really hoping for. That would make all this seem downright reasonable. I still don’t like giving up top prospects for Upton, who is likely a one year rental (no way the Padres can afford to resign him, right? or maybe the world in SD is crazier than I know!), but putting those two in the corners and flipping Myers for Profar would be a great deal. He was Preller’s guy from the start in Texas.
Let the interest/confusion/hilarity roll on!!!
I’m in the same boat. I liked both the earlier trades until the news about Kemp’s arthritic hips came out then I assumed they would back out of that one. But not only are they keeping him they’re getting Upton for a 1 year rental too? That makes no sense to me. Maybe if they thought they had a good chance of signing him to an extension but I can’t believe Upton would be open to that.
People are so weird in the comments.
Either someone is getting dealt or someone is playing first base (and no, it’s not Derek Norris).
Your face is weird in the comments! BOOM!
I have no reply to that.
Oh snap!
So’s yours, for you wear the same face.
Going to be interesting to see what prospect hounds to say about the Braves’ return; I’ve heard Fried (barely pitched in 2014 and had Tommy John in August), Peterson, and possibly Gettys, a recent draftee. Disappointed they didn’t land either Renfroe or Wisler, who seem to be the cream of the system, but happy they steered clear of Hedges, who looks like the second coming of Christian Bethancourt.
Its both Petersons, Fried, and Mallex Smith. Quite a bit for a 1 year rental on a team that has the 2nd worst projected WAR in MLB coming in.
Fried certainly seems like a good get, but it’s always a bit discouraging to acquire a guy who’s currently injured.
Another pitcher that blew out his arm, a faster Tommy La Stella, a younger Chris Johnson, and an OF with a lot of speed.
quantity over quality. not impressed with that return at all given Fried’s TJ puts him out for a long while.
would have thought Upton was a perfect fit in SF and they could have offered 2 solid arms to make it happen. Guess odd year means Giants take year off….
What do you think Seth Smith is up to these days?
Packing his bags
Interesting fact: Seth Smith doubled Matt Kemp’s fWAR last year. Another interesting fact: Will Venable has beaten Wil Myers’ fWAR scores in both of Myers’ years in MLB. And Carlos Quentin has done a reasonable facsimile of Justin Upton too. Presumably at least two of those three guys will have to leave now.
“Jack Zduriencik to the white courtesy phone . . . Mr. Zduriencik to the white courtesy phone . . .”
AJ Preller: the next Jesse Owens or a hamster on a hamster wheel? Discuss.
I love these moves by the Padres. With offense down throught out baseball they have added 3 powerful bats and not surrended any of their top pitchers or top prospects. HOw is that possible? And maybe they want to bring the fans back by making these moves.
Because a mediocre/bad team that’s more expensive with bigger names draws so many people.
padres get middlebrooks