San Diego’s sole return for Melvin Upton Jr. is 19-year old Dominican righty, Hansel Rodriguez. This trade’s roots run back to 2013, when the Blue Jays selected LHP Brian Moran in the 2013 Rule 5 draft and immediately flipped him to the Angels for $240,000 worth of international pool money, which was added to the yet-to-be-spent $127,000 they had remaining from that year’s original pool amount. Early in 2014, Toronto signed Rodriguez for $330,000. Moran is currently pitching in Indy ball.

Rodriguez spent the early portion of 2016 in extended spring training before moving on to Toronto’s Appalachian League affiliate in Bluefield, where he had thrown 32.1 innings over six starts. He allowed 25 hits and 11 walks while striking out 26 hitters during that span, sporting a 3.06 ERA.

The strikeout totals aren’t mind-blowing because Rodriguez’s stuff simply isn’t very good yet. Instead, this is San Diego betting on a body and delivery. Rodriguez has a solid pitcher’s frame at 6-foot-2 and a listed 170 pounds. He’ll likely fill out a bit more — at least enough to counterbalance the increased workload he’ll undertake as his pro career moves forward. He has a loose, quick arm and incorporates his hips into his delivery, though he can fly open a little too hard at times and loose some command. It’s possible we see Rodriguez makes some changes to become more direct to the plate and create better extension, but his arm speed is impressive.

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When he was selected 15th overall in the 2013 draft, Braden Shipley became the highest-drafted athlete in the University of Nevada’s history, purloining that mantle from former NBA guard Kirk Snyder (RIP). Shipley spent his freshman season at Nevada playing all but two of his games at shortstop, hitting .344 in conference play and successfully completing 80% of his stolen-base attempts. He took to the mound as a sophomore, partly just because Nevada needed extra arms, and he was terrific, leading the WAC in ERA. That summer, as a rising junior, Shipley pitched in relief in the Alaskan Summer League, was touching 97, and struck out 22 hitters in just 13 innings. He was up to 99 as a junior, impressing scouts with his athleticism, arm acceleration and the changeup projection those two attributes allow.

As is the case with many conversion arms, Shipley’s athleticism has played a huge role in his minor-league development and has allowed him to make adjustments. Most notably, Shipley’s reined in his fastball. Gone is the occasional upper-90s heat in deference to a sinking fastball in the 89-92 range that touches 94. The pitch will flatten out at times, usually when Shipley — who’s only 6-foot-1 — tries to work up in the zone with it, but dialing things back has allowed Shipley to cut his walk rate in half this season. The pitch is most effective when Shipley is locating it to his glove side, allowing the pitch to run back onto the corner.

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The Diamondbacks called upon top pitching prospect Braden Shipley to make yesterday’s start against the Milwaukee Brewers. Though it marked his big-league debut, the 24-year-old has been on the prospect scene for a while now. The Diamondbacks originally drafted him 15th overall out of college back in 2013, and he’s been a fixture on top-100 lists ever since. Last month, Baseball America ranked him 63rd on their midseason list.

Despite his prospect pedigree, Shipley’s minor-league numbers have never quite lived up to his raw stuff. He spent the entirety of the 2015 season at the Double-A level, where he pitched to a 3.50 ERA — though peripherals suggest he wasn’t quite that good. The D-backs bumped him up to Triple-A this year, where he was equally underwhelming.

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Before debuting yesterday for Colorado, 22-year-old outfielder David Dahl had recorded a smooth .307/.389/.562 between Double-A and Triple-A this year, including a torrid .456/.508/.886 showing in his short stint at Triple-A. Dahl possesses an exciting combination of power and speed. The former 10th-overall pick belted 18 homers in the minors this year while also swiping 17 bases. Dahl’s 20-plus-homer power is a relatively new addition to his skill set, but it’s not as though he hasn’t shown glimpses of it before.

Dahl has plenty going for him in the power and speed departments, but his strikeout numbers are some cause for concern. He whiffed in 25% of his plate appearances in Double-A last year, and didn’t really improve in that area this season. Much this year’s improvement can be traced back to his sky-high .388 BABIP, while the underlying contact issues linger.

Dwelling on Dahl’s contact rates almost feels like nitpicking, however, especially since his strikeout numbers are trending in the right direction. All in all, Dahl has an awful lot going for him. Whether you look at his stat line or his scouting reports (such as the one published today by Eric Longenhagen), it’s very easy to envision him sticking as a quality everyday center fielder.

My newly revamped KATOH projection system is a big believer in Dahl. My stats-only model rates him as the #12 prospect in baseball, while my KATOH+ model — which also integrates Baseball America’s prospect rankings — placed him at #14. They foresee 9.0 WAR and 11.1 WAR, respectively, over Dahl’s next six seasons.

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Outfielder David Dahl’s (dahl?) ascent to the major leagues, at which level he debuted last night for Colorado, has been relatively swift considering he missed just about all of 2013 with a hamstring injury and a huge chunk of 2015 with a ruptured spleen. That missed development time — in concert with Colorado’s unenviable affiliate situation — has made Dahl difficult to evaluate and project. In four pro seasons, Dahl has spent time with clubs in Grand Junction, CO; Asheville, NC; Modesto, CA; Boise, ID; New Britain, CT; Hartford, CT (but not actually in Hartford because that club doesn’t actually currently possess a home park); and Albuquerque, NM.

Pro scouts with area- or league-based coverage had a difficult time getting in-depth looks at Dahl because of the unusually nomadic nature of his career. His tools haven’t been difficult to evaluate (and they’re impressive), but what has been hard to grasp are Dahl’s secondary skills. He came into this season with a career walk rate around 5%, but Dahl has doubled that this season and it’s hard to discern if those improvements are real.

Let’s say, for the sake of argument and in effort to discern his floor, that Dahl’s newfound plate discipline is a mirage. Steamer has him regressing to a walk rate just shy of 6%. We’re still talking about a plus runner with a plus arm (his throw to nail Josh Naylor at the plate in the Futures Game was particularly impressive) who projects as a plus defender in center field. Impact defense at a premium position is often sufficient to justify playing everyday, even if the bat is light. Punchless though they may be, black-hole center fielders like Ender Inciarte (.242/.309/.319), Billy Hamilton (.251/.299/.351) and Kevin Pillar (.259/.390/.382) are all comfortably above replacement level this season. Dahl’s defense, though not on the elite level of Hamilton and Pillar, is strong enough that the offensive bar he’ll need to clear to play every day is relatively low.

Dahl sports plus bat speed and good bat control, but his ability to hit is undermined by some of the effort in his swing and inconsistent pitch-tracking. His swing can get long at times because of how early he extends his hands, which causes some tardiness. I’ve also gotten some reports that question Dahl’s ability to hit anything on the outer half with authority, though he’s adept at taking those pitches to the opposite field and his bat path aids in that. There’s above-average pull power here — and it will undoubtedly play up in Denver. It just remains to be seen how much of it Dahl will get to if I’m correct about his swing-and-miss issues.

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In the second inning of today’s game at Fenway Park, Minnesota’s Max Kepler hit a one-hop rocket that Red Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts couldn’t handle. After deliberation — he looked at multiple replays —- official scorer Chaz Scoggins ruled the play an E-6.

A few minutes later, MLB.com Twins beat writer Rhett Bollinger noted that StatCast had Kepler’s smash at 109 mph. That begs a question: Should exit velocity factor into official scoring decisions?

According to Scoggins, the subject has been discussed informally by scorers throughout the two leagues. Based on those conversations, the majority feel “the numbers” shouldn’t matter — an experienced official scorer is able to make an informed decision on a hard-hit ball.

While a good argument can be made for exit velocity mattering, Scoggins brought up a valid point in defending its non-use. A ball may have been hit X mph, but was the infielder playing back, or was he in on the grass with less reaction time? More goes into a scoring decision than a number can measure.

Does this mean exit velocity will never become a tool for official scorers? In my opinion, the answer is no. Eyeball judgement will remain the primary determiner, but data will influence decisions.

We all knew Dan Vogelbach’s days in the Cubs’ organization were numbered. His lackluster range limit to first base, and if we’re being serious, even that’s a stretch. He didn’t have a future with the Cubs. Not only do they lack a DH, but they also have more quality hitters than they have lineup spots. A trade was imminent, and the Cubs finally pulled the trigger on Wednesday night, dealing the 23-year-old slugger for unheralded — yet effective — reliever Mike Montgomery and Double-A hurler Paul Blackburn. Triple-A pitcher Jordan Pries also heads to Chicago in the deal.

Dan Vogelbach, 1B, Seattle (Profile)

KATOH Forecast for first six seasons: 2.8 WAR

Vogelbach offers zero defensive value, which means he’ll need to hit a lot to get by in the big leagues. To his credit, however, his exploits in the minors this year suggest he might hit enough to make for a productive DH. He’s slashed a gaudy .318/.425/.548 in Triple-A, and has little left to prove in the minor leagues. KATOH isn’t crazy about Vogelbach on account of his defensive limitations, lack of speed and iffy contact numbers. Vogelbach’s power is excellent, but the other facets of his game threaten to chip away at his value.

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Earlier today, FanGraphs contributor and dealer in vulgarities Paul Sporer submitted footage of the pitch featured here, annotated by a brief comment of his own to the effect that it (i.e. the footage) cultivated within him pleasures analogous to the sort derived from coitus.

The pitch appears courtesy not only MLB Advanced Media but also, more immediately, Yankees right-hander Masahiro Tanaka — and seems to possess arm-side movement which one might reasonably describe either as unconscionable or totally unconscionable.

The data, however — as is often the case — cause the scales to fall from the eyes and all hopes concerning the existence of miracles to fall with them. Because, in reality, it actually seems as though the movement depicted here is very conscionable — to the point, in fact, that Tanaka threw 14 pitches against the Red Sox on Sunday that possessed more arm-side run.

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Earlier today I wrote about how the Braves should feel motivated to trade Julio Teheran, given all of the circumstances of the market. I believe what I said in that post, and I do think that, from a rational perspective, the time now is right to sell Teheran while he’s cruising. That all being said, this is sports, and at the core of this whole endeavor, there are fans, fans driven mostly by emotions. You know who likes Julio Teheran? Braves fans. You know who likes young, home-grown, up-and-coming players? Fans of teams like the Braves. Sure, it makes sense to sell high on Teheran. That doesn’t mean it doesn’t suck. Losing sucks, and it makes a team do sucky things.

One way to feel better about this stuff, though, is to shift focus. Teheran has been a good young pitcher on a team that hasn’t had enough good young players. That’s part of why trading him would be painful. He’s not alone, however. There’s been a little bit of concern over who would start the game to open the new park next year, if Teheran goes away. Looks like there could be a fine internal option. If you want to think about the next No. 1 of the Braves, might I interest you in Mike Foltynewicz?

Foltynewicz has been a prospect for a long time because of his big and powerful fastball. Like many pitchers known mostly for big and powerful fastballs, Foltynewicz has a history of throwing an insufficient number of strikes. He was a part of the Astros’ trade for Evan Gattis, and back then, it was unclear whether Foltynewicz would be a starter or a reliever. He’s been with the Braves now for a year and a half.

To get to the point fast, two tables. One metric I like to play around with is a pitcher’s rate of pitches thrown while ahead in the count. Sure, strike rate works fine enough, but I like thinking in these terms. Let’s look at Foltynewicz’s last few seasons.

Foltynewicz was traded in January 2015. Before that, in the upper levels with the Astros, Foltynewicz threw a below-average rate of pitches while ahead in the count. As a Brave, Foltynewicz has moved forward, and he’s done so this year in a big way. How big? Well:

This is just a snapshot in time, and between now and the end of the year, some numbers will shift around, but here you see Foltynewicz in the big-league lead. He’s thrown a greater rate of pitches while ahead in the count than anybody else, given the same role, and when you do that you give yourself a hell of an advantage. Foltynewicz keeps hitters on the defensive, and he’s doing this as a starter, a starter who the other day lasted 107 pitches. This isn’t the guy the Astros traded. This is a guy that guy could’ve become, but usually, pitchers stop short of developing this successfully.

It’s not like he’s an ace now. There’s polishing yet to be done, as Foltynewicz looks to get hitters to more often expand their zones. As has been the case for a while, he could stand to improve the secondary stuff. And! Bone chips. Foltynewicz is pitching with bone chips. But just look at where things are: Foltynewicz is a 24-year-old who can buzz triple digits, and he’s now frequently getting ahead in the count. More than ever before, Mike Foltynewicz is looking like he’s in command. The Braves have been collecting big arms with big risks. Here’s one that’s working out.

Kevin Kiermaier is not going to be voted American League Most Valuable Player. I personally would not vote for Kevin Kiermaier as American League Most Valuable Player. He’ll be on zero radars, and that’s perfectly fine. Other players will be more deserving — I just want to quickly expand on something that came up during my chat last Friday.

Let’s say you really really really wanted to make the Kiermaier MVP case. I don’t know why. Maybe you’re a family member. Maybe you have money on the line. Maybe you just enjoy getting into statistical arguments. Where could you start? I’d recommend starting on May 21. That’s when Kiermaier sustained an injury that knocked him out of action for almost two months. After the Rays game on May 21, they stood at 20-20. They had a strongly positive run differential. Since then, the Rays have posted the worst record in the majors. The run differential has sucked. Kiermaier just returned Friday.

Kiermaier is a decent hitter, all things considered, but you’re a FanGraphs reader and you know him for his defense. So let’s focus on that defense for a second. To what extent could we consider Kiermaier a difference-maker in the outfield? This year, when Kiermaier has started, the Rays have allowed a team BABIP of .260. Meanwhile, when Kiermaier hasn’t started, the Rays have allowed a team BABIP of .341. That’s not all Kiermaier, of course, because not all balls in play are directed toward center field, but that’s an absolutely enormous difference. When Kiermaier went down, the Rays’ run prevention cratered, and that probably isn’t all on the pitchers.

That would have to be around the core of the Kiermaier argument. That, when Kiermaier has been unavailable, the Rays defense hasn’t been able to make up for it. It’s not just center field — Kiermaier’s presence allows the other outfielders to position themselves differently, too. Kiermaier would be thus presented as the keystone. You don’t have to buy it. Obviously, Kiermaier alone isn’t responsible for that whole difference. But there are still so many people who downplay the importance of an elite-level defender. The Rays would argue the opposite.

As long as I’m here, what if we were to expand beyond just 2016? Kiermaier has been a regular or semi-regular going on three years, now. How valuable has his outfield defense been to the Rays? This is one way you could choose to look at it. It would suggest that he’s been extremely valuable.

I know there are a lot of variables folded in here. I know this captures more than just Kiermaier by himself. But we already have numbers that try to capture individual defenders by themselves. This looks from the team perspective, and when Kiermaier has started in the outfield, Rays pitchers have allowed fewer runs per nine, by 70 points. There’s a 38-point gap in BABIP, which works out to nearly a hit a game. Kiermaier has a career DRS of +63 runs. He has a career UZR of +50 runs. The team-level numbers do nothing to make those look silly. If anything, they make them look like under-estimates. Which sounds crazy, but here we are.

The Rays know that Kevin Kiermaier is valuable. You presumably already knew that Kevin Kiermaier is valuable. Could be he’s even more valuable than we thought. And he could be a crucial reason why the Rays are seemingly about to start selling. In a way, when Kiermaier got injured, they just didn’t have a chance.