Projecting the Return for Khris Davis: Derby and Nottingham

The Brewers continued the rebuilding process on Friday dealing power-hitting outfielder Khris Davis to the Athletics in exchange for prospects. Here’s what my fancy computer math thinks of the prospects who are now property of the Milwaukee Brewers.

Jacob Nottingham, C, 6.8 WAR (Profile)

Nottingham was a former sixth-round pick who broke out in a big way in A-Ball last year. After an underwhelming two years in a Rookie Ball, he slashed .309/.364/.493 in 122 games between the Houston and Oakland organizations. He had a wee bit of trouble making contact as evidenced by his 20% strikeout rate. But he made up for it by hitting for loads of power.

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Washington Post: “The Rise of FanGraphs”

For those of you who are interested in learning a little bit about the history of FanGraphs and our operations, Barry Svrluga wrote a great piece in the Washington Post about how it all got started.


Job Posting: Miami Marlins Baseball Analytics Intern

Position: Miami Marlins Baseball Analytics Intern

Location: Miami

Description:

The Baseball Analytics Intern will assist Baseball Operations decision-making through the analysis and research of baseball information. The specific day-to-day responsibilities of this position will vary depending on the baseball calendar, but it requires a general knowledge of how to use objective data to answer baseball-related questions, with a strong preference for a candidate possessing an established foundation of statistical and database management skills.

Responsibilities:

  • Perform advanced statistical analysis on large datasets in order to assist in the decision-making of the Baseball Operations department.
  • Expand upon existing analytical strategy by improving existing resources and creating new databases, models, and reports.
  • Perform ad-hoc research projects as requested and present those results in a concise, straightforward manner.
  • Monitor publically available baseball research.
  • Provide administrative support and complete general intern duties as requested.

Qualifications:

  • Understanding of and passion for the game of baseball.
  • Ability to communicate baseball analytics concepts to individuals with diverse baseball backgrounds.
  • Strong work ethic, attention to detail, and ability to self-direct.
  • Ability to work evenings, weekends, and holidays during the season.
  • Bachelor’s degree or relevant practical experience required.
  • Proficiency in Microsoft Office Suite required.
  • Familiarity with current state of freely available baseball research required.
  • Knowledge of ball tracking data (e.g. Pitch F/X, TrackMan, etc.) strongly preferred.
  • Experience with relational databases and SQL strongly preferred.
  • Experience with R statistical software package strongly preferred.
  • Experience with at least one scripting language (e.g. Perl, Python, Ruby) a plus.

Compensation:
This position is compensated.

To Apply:
Interested applicants can email their materials to marlinsinternships@gmail.com.


Job Posting: Toronto Blue Jays Manager of Baseball Analytics

Position: Toronto Blue Jays Manager of Baseball Analytics

Location: Toronto

Description:

The primary focus of this position will be to learn how decisions are made in all areas of Baseball Operations, develop a familiarity with those processes and then develop tools and conduct research to incorporate data into the decision making process.

Responsibilities:

  • Conduct empirical research related to baseball strategy and player evaluation, with an understanding and context of how findings would apply to more effective decision making and increased operational effectiveness.
  • Communicate departmental findings to key decision-makers within all departments of Baseball Operations.
  • Collaborate with the front office, coaches and scouts to develop best practices for analyzing and displaying baseball data, including the creation of reports, charts, graphics, and other tools to deliver information to end users. Results of this work should help those within the organization to better understand, consider and apply the use of information and data to their decisions and operation on a daily basis.
  • Design, test, implement and maintain advanced baseball metrics and predictive models using statistical tools and analysis in order to contribute to planning, strategy and personnel decisions.
  • Work to integrate new information into existing Baseball Operations processes and develop and maintain data quality assurance processes to ensure database integrity.
  • Ensure that Baseball Operations staff is fully informed of current baseball research and analysis including statistical techniques that are best-suited for particular baseball problems.
  • Complete ad-hoc database queries and analysis as dictated by circumstances.
  • Recommend new data sources for purchase and/or new techniques to gather proprietary data.
  • Assist with hiring and managing in the Baseball Analytics Department.

Qualifications:

  • Strong interpersonal skills to communicate effectively with a wide range of individuals including members of the front office, scouts, and field staff.
  • Passion for baseball and excellent reasoning, problem-solving, creative thinking, and communication skills.
  • Demonstrated ability to successfully design and execute baseball research projects.
  • Proficiency with SQL and relational databases is required.
  • Experience with at least one of R, Python, Perl, Ruby, C++ and/or other programming or mathematical languages is required.
  • Strong knowledge of Microsoft Office is required.
  • Strong understanding of current baseball research.
  • Baseball playing background is preferred, although not required.
  • Bachelor’s degree in mathematics, statistics, economics, engineering, operations research, or related quantitative field from a top university preferred.
  • 3-5 years of related work experience or advanced degree is preferred.
  • Ability to read, speak and comprehend English effectively.
  • Basic understanding of organizational structure, goals, and mission.
  • Represent the Blue Jays in a positive fashion to all business partners and the general public.
  • The ability to work with multicultural populations and a commitment to fairness and equality.
  • Ability to work evening, weekend and holiday hours.
  • Willing and able to relocate to Toronto.

To Apply:
Interested applicants must do the following:

  1. Why do you want to work in baseball?
  2. Describe a time when you used your analytic and research skills to solve a problem, either in baseball or in business.

ERA/FIP Visualization Tool

I’ve made an interactive visualization tool for earned run average (ERA) and fielding independent pitching (FIP) across Major League Baseball. You’ve seen this visualization before in many of Owen Watson’s articles throughout last season. Owen used this to suggest which pitching staffs might have overachieved their peripheral stats. This visualization lets us see the discrepancies between ERA and FIP among all of the MLB teams or even among different players.

Below is an example of a graph are you able to create with the tool:

You can toggle between teams and players. Players are organized by team and you are able to set the minimum number of innings pitched for the player to be on the graph. There are two places you’ll see these graphs. The primary location will be the tool’s page on FanGraphs; this is where the full tool is available. Then the graph itself can be embedded into our blog (plus Community Research) or anyone else’s blog using an iframe element.

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Job Posting: New York Mets Analyst, Baseball Research & Development

Position: New York Mets Analyst, Baseball Research & Development

Location: New York

Description:
The New York Mets are seeking a Data Analyst to work its Research and Development team. The employee will analyze baseball data in order to build and maintain predictive models that support the decision-making processes within Baseball Operations. The Analyst will report to the Manager, Baseball Research and Development.

Responsibilities:

  • Research, develop, and test predictive models to support Baseball Operations (ie, player evaluation, roster construction, player development, in-game decision making).
  • Assist development team to create and integrate new analysis and tools into existing Baseball Operations application.
  • Collaborate with members of Research and Development team to maintain long term information and systems architecture for Baseball Operations.
  • Write scripts which support data collection, automation, and report generation.
  • Interface with Baseball Operations leadership on player evaluation, in-game strategy, and transactions by presenting the results of analysis in a clear, understandable fashion using a variety of methods.
  • Keep Baseball Operations staff abreast of cutting edge statistical techniques.

Qualifications:

  • Advanced degree or equivalent experience in Statistics, Data Science, Operations research, Mathematics, Computer Science, or related quantitative field.
  • Demonstrated experience with statistical tools and packages, such as R, STATA, Julia, SPSS, or SAS.
  • Familiarity with SQL query design and optimization.
  • Strong understanding of baseball specific datasets (ie, Pitch Fx, Trackman, Statcast) & knowledge of current baseball research.
  • Ability to effectively communicate complex concepts to a non-technical audience.

To Apply:
Interested applicants should apply here by Sunday, February 7th.


Job Posting: TrackMan Cape Cod Data & Operations Intern

Position: TrackMan Cape Cod Data & Operations Intern

Location: Cape Cod

Description:
At TrackMan Baseball we measure stuff – the speed, spin and movement of pitched and hit baseballs.

We do this using proprietary 3D Doppler radar hardware and software. The majority of Major League teams use our products and services for player development and evaluation. We also work with collegiate, Japanese and Korean teams, premier amateur baseball organizations, broadcasters and equipment manufacturers.

Our business is growing fast. By the start of next season we will have a network of radars installed in more than 100 stadiums on three continents, and dozens of remote systems traveling the US.

We are looking for a TrackMan Data & Operations Intern to be our hands and eyes on the ground at Cape Cod Baseball League games during the 2016 summer. The D&O Intern will be out in the field on a daily basis focused primarily on operating the TrackMan system and ensuring data quality measures are effectively in place at the point of capture. You will be an integral piece of ensuring the added TrackMan value to players, coaches, college teams, and Major League teams. This position runs from June 10th – August 13 and pays $25/game.

Responsibilities:

  • For all scheduled CCBL games, operate the TrackMan system and ensure all data is being captured effectively, as well as validate the quality and accuracy of all captured data.
  • Support the TrackMan data operations teams in ad-hoc data requests and evaluations.

Qualifications:

  • Current college student or recent graduate with education focused on Sports Management, Statistics / Mathematics, Operations Management, or similar.
  • Strong computer skills (will be using the TrackMan application regularly and may need to do basic system navigation / follow Help Desk step-by-step in case of issues).
  • Strong knowledge of baseball rules (comfort in baseball culture a plus).
  • Passion for the game of baseball.
  • Experience in Project Management a plus.
  • Basic database and/or analytics experience a plus.
  • Ability to lift upwards of 50 lbs.

Compensation:
This position is compensated.

To Apply:
To apply, please send a resume to Kirby Young at kmy@trackman.dk. No phone calls please.


Reports: Mets Re-Sign Yoenis Cespedes

After spending most of the off-season telling anyone who would listen that they probably weren’t going to re-sign Yoenis Cespedes, the Mets are reportedly on the verge of doing just that.

It seems pretty clear that Cespedes is leaving money on the table to stay in New York, as the Nationals were reportedly willing to offer more than $100 million over five years. But Cespedes joins Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist in spurning the Nationals to sign elsewhere — and with Brandon Phillips unwillingness to waive his no-trade clause, one has to wonder about why so many players keep choosing to not go to Washington this winter — and will instead stay with the Mets, presumably taking over as their regular center fielder.

For the price, it’s tough to not like this for the Mets; they get a quality player to upgrade their line-up without a significant long-term commitment. Most likely, Cespedes will use his opt-out next winter, so this might end up being more of an extended rental for the Mets; next year’s free agent class is terrible, and it’s tough to think that he won’t be able to do better than roughly 2/$50M he’ll have left on his deal. But even with the opt-out, the low total cost makes this too good of a price to pass up for New York.

The question will be how well he can handle center field, however. The Mets did make the World Series with Cespedes playing between Michael Conforto and Curtis Granderson, but that’s going to be one of the least effective defensive outfields in baseball in 2016. The hope for the Mets is that Cespedes hits well enough that you live with the defensive limitations, and with Juan Lagares around, they’ll have the option to put out a better defensive club on days when Conforto or Granderson sit.

Personally, I think the Mets probably would have been just fine with Lagares playing center field most days, but Cespedes is a better player, and this does make the Mets a bit better for 2016. Given the low cost and the high value of additional wins — and depth — to a team with a real shot of making it back to the World Series, this is a move that they probably had to make, even if Cespedes might be a bit of an adventure in center field.


More Details on the MLB TV Lawsuit Settlement

This morning, I provided an overview of the settlement announced yesterday in the Garber v. Office of the Commissioner of Baseball lawsuit challenging Major League Baseball’s broadcasting policies under federal antitrust law. As I noted at the time, details regarding the precise terms of the deal were not yet available, as the official settlement agreement had not yet been released. Instead, this morning’s post relied on a brief announcement from the plaintiffs’ attorneys highlighting some of the key terms of the deal.

Earlier this afternoon, the plaintiffs filed the official proposed settlement in court. So we now know all of the terms of the tentative agreement. And while this morning’s piece covered most of the major details, there were a few more potentially noteworthy items included in the document filed with the court today.

First, the official settlement does place some restrictions on MLB’s ability to raise the price of both its single-team and league-wide MLB.TV packages in the future. Specifically, after setting the price of these service options at $84.99 and $109.99, respectively, for 2016, the agreement specifies that the league may only raise the price of these packages by no more than 3%, or that year’s inflation rate, whichever is greater.

So barring a major spike in inflation, MLB will only be able to raise the price of its MLB.TV packages by a few bucks per year until the settlement agreement expires following the 2020 season.

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MLB Plays it Safe, Settles Television Lawsuit

It is often said that deadlines spur action. And in the law, there is perhaps no greater deadline than the start of a trial. So it was not particularly surprising to learn that Major League Baseball agreed to settle the Garber lawsuit — the case challenging its television broadcast policies — this morning, just minutes before the trial in the case was scheduled to begin.

The terms of the settlement still have not been made public, and it may be another day or two before we learn what the agreement entails, as we wait for the attorneys to draft a formal contract. So it’s impossible at present to precisely determine what impact the deal will have on fans.

Realistically, though, one can anticipate that the terms of the settlement will likely be similar to those reached by the same plaintiffs attorneys in an analogous case against the National Hockey League last year. Specifically, in that case the NHL agreed to offer out-of-market fans the ability to purchase single-team packages of the NHL Center Ice service. Notably, however, the NHL’s settlement did not force the league to change its blackout policy, so hockey fans remain unable to view games involving their local teams via the Center Ice service without a cable subscription.

Assuming that MLB settled the Garber case on roughly equivalent grounds, this outcome may be somewhat underwhelming for fans. MLB had already announced last month that it intended to introduce single-team packages on MLB.TV this season, so such a concession in the Garber case would seemingly provide little new benefit to fans. While MLB may have gone a little further to sweeten the pot for a settlement, it is doubtful that the league would have gone so far as to voluntarily modify its blackout policies in any substantial way before trial.

So fans that were hoping that the Garber case would spell an end to blackouts will likely be disappointed once the final settlement terms are announced.

Regardless of the terms of the deal, the settlement will ultimately need to be approved by the presiding judge in the case — Judge Shira Scheindlin — before it becomes official. As part of that process, fans will have the opportunity to provide feedback regarding the sufficiency of the deal. But considering that Judge Scheindlin approved the settlement in the NHL case without lodging any serious objections to it, one can reasonably anticipate that whatever deal MLB reached this morning will eventually be approved as well.