Archive for InstaGraphs

The analytically minded baseball fan knows all about BABIP. BABIP is essentially a sabermetric disclaimer. It’s something we cite every time we observe something new or different in a player’s game. “It seems like Player X is getting better (or worse), but it might just be BABIP noise.” In a way, HR/FB is a lot like that, especially for pitchers.

Pitchers can dramatically improve their run prevention with a little good fortune in the HR/FB department, even if they’re not really doing much differently. To that end, we’ve updated our HR/FB Library entry to help you better understand how to use the statistic to evaluate pitchers and their runs of good and bad performance.

As always, feel free to ask questions in the comments below or to find me on Twitter @NeilWeinberg44 if you have other inquiries.

It’s a fact — confirmed by multiple writers whose nearly sole vocation in this life is to report on such matters — it’s a fact that right-handed reliever Jason Grilli has signed a two-year, $8 million with the Atlanta Braves, with a club option of a third year.

Per the terms of the agreement, one assumes, Grilli will report to the Braves’ facility in central Florida for spring training, where he’ll prepare himself to set up closer Craig Kimbrel. At the beginning of April, he’ll travel with the club to their season opener in Miami against the Marlins, then to Atlanta for a series against the Mets, and continue in this fashion for some time.

“For some time,” I say, but probably a time less than two years — and probably a lot more like three months. For, while any number of outcomes are possible regarding the Braves, the most likely one for 2015 is that they’ll win games at a lower rate than almost every other club in the majors. By way of illustration, consider the table below, which features the bottom-five clubs per this site’s projected 2015 standings.

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It’s the last weekend before Christmas, and everyone is scrambling to finish up their holiday shopping, including Major League teams, apparently. So in between the flurry of the 42 trades made by the Padres this morning, the Yankees and Marlins have also reportedly struck a deal. According to Jack Curry, the Yankees have traded Martin Prado and David Phelps to Miami for Nathan Eovaldi and Garrett Jones, with some minor pieces included as well.

Update: Domingo German is reportedly heading to NY as well. Here’s a write-up on him from September.

This deal seems to be a decent depth-for-needs the Yankees. After the signing of Chase Headley, they had less of a need for Prado, especially given their depth of interesting/maybe decent second base types, including Robert Refsnyder. Their rotation was still pretty thin, however, and Eovaldi should be a pretty solid upgrade over Phelps. As a lefty 1B/DH type, Jones fits as a potential DH partner with Alex Rodriguez and a backup for Mark Teixeira.

On the other side of things, I don’t see this making quite as much sense. The Marlins rotation got pretty crowded after trading for both Mat Latos and Dan Haren, so those moves have essentially squeezed out Eovaldi, but he may be as good or better than both. Still, they have enough depth of arms to be okay without him, and Prado is a useful player, but it’s not entirely clear where he’s going to play. The team seemed somewhat enamored with Casey McGehee’s bounceback, who was a league average third baseman last year, and they just filled second base by trading for Dee Gordon.

Maybe the Marlins realize that either McGehee and Gordon aren’t that good, and Prado will split time between both positions. But then, did they really need to give up an interesting young arm for a part-time infielder on the downside of his career? I like Prado more than most, but and I’d play him over McGehee, but even I don’t see that as a huge upgrade. This looks more like the Marlins moving wins around than getting better, but they definitely got older in the process.

I’m guessing more details will come out that might help explain the trade, such as the Yankees paying nearly the entirety of Prado’s remaining salary or something. Just on talent, though, this seems like a pretty nice move for NYY and a bit of a strange one for a Marlins team that is having a very strange offseason.

The never-ending transaction wheel in San Diego has continued to spin this morning. In the wake of acquiring Matt Kemp, Wil Myers, and Justin Upton, the Padres have now set their sights on remaking their infield. First stop was to find a new third baseman, and the team has shockingly settled on a defensively challenged right-handed slugger with contact issues. Will Middlebrooks played his way out of Boston even before the team signed Pablo Sandoval to replace him, so he was clearly getting traded this winter; the Padres picked him up in exchange for Ryan Hanigan, who came over from the Rays.

Middlebrooks’ value will likely come down to his defense at third base. Steamer projects him as a league average hitter for 2015, a significant step up from what he’s done in Boston. A 97 wRC+ with solid defense at third base is a pretty nice role player, especially for the league minimum and with multiple years of team control.

That said, his defensive value isn’t so cut and dry. In just under 2,000 innings at third base, UZR thinks he’s been okay-ish, rating him at -3 runs per 150 games. However, DRS has him at -16 over the same time period, which would make him among the worst third baseman in baseball. With a sample this small, you certainly want to regress towards the mean, and so Middlebrooks should probably project as something closer to league average with the glove until we have more evidence that he’s not.

If he’s a decent enough defender, he’s a +1 to +2 WAR player with a little bit of upside. If he’s the butcher that DRS thinks, he’s Chris Johnson 2.0.

Still, the price was right to take the gamble, as Hanigan is a good defender who was displaced by last night’s acquisition of Derek Norris, and the team just signed David Ross to take over as the defensive half of the catcher tandem. Hanigan will be a useful player for the Red Sox, but the gap between what he provides and what the Padres will get from Ross isn’t huge, especially in a reserve role.

The Padres still have plenty of work to do to sort out a roster crowded with outfielders and heavy on right-handed hitters, but the Hanigan/Middlebrooks swap gives them a decent third baseman without dramatically downgrading their catching situation. This kind of offense-only-who-cares-about-defense philosophy is never going to win me over, but this part of the plan looks reasonable, at least.

Well, this is fascinating. A day after finalizing the Matt Kemp trade, and on the day the Wil Myers trade is expected to be announced, the Padres have reportedly agreed to acquire Justin Upton as well. I think it’s safe to say that A.J. Preller puts a high value on right-handed power hitting outfielders.

As I see it, there are a few ways this could work.

1. The Padres are going to play either Wil Myers or Matt Kemp in center field. Myers came up as a CF in the minors, while Kemp has played mostly CF in the big leagues. If the Padres just really think defense is completely useless, this gets all three sluggers into the line-up and maximizes the team’s offense.

2. Either Kemp or Myers is going to go to first base, replacing Yonder Alonso, who doesn’t really fit into the mold of what the new Padres seem to value. Kemp would seem to be the better candidate, but Jeff Passan suggests that maybe Myers would be the guy heading to first base instead.

3. Wil Myers is getting traded again. As I speculated a few nights ago, there’s a fit between the Padres and Rangers for a Wil Myers-Jurickson Profar swap, assuming the two sides could agree on the other parts of the deal. The Rangers need a right fielder, the Padres need a shortstop, and both sides clearly have depth to trade from now.

Any of the three options would be kind of interesting, at least. The first option seems the most likely, and probably the worst, as punting outfield defense entirely just isn’t a very good plan. Kemp would be more valuable at first base than in the outfield, but swapping one of the newly acquired OFs for an SS might be the best plan of all. Clearly, the Padres aren’t done dealing just yet.

For this week’s Library update, we’ve rolled out a very long, thorough glossary entry that offers a brief description and links (where applicable) for every single pitching statistic available on our leaderboards. It’s easy to find our glossary entry on FIP, for example, but if you want to know what wFB/C is, it takes a little bit of digging to get to the right place.

Now, we have a permanent pages that lists every statistic we have according to the acronym used on the leaderboard. You can jump over to this page at any time and find the corresponding stat or use “CTRL + F” to make your Internet computers do it for you.

As always, should you have any questions, I encourage you to drop a comment below, find me on Twitter @NeilWeinberg44, or stop by our weekly Q&A chats Wednesdays at 3pm. Enjoy!

Hey, remember the Matt Kemp trade that happened last Thursday? Well, it didn’t really happen so much as news of a pending agreement was reported a week ago. For the last seven days, details have been getting finalized, which included having Matt Kemp take a physical. He did that on Tuesday. Apparently, it didn’t go very well.

SD in perfect position to squeeze LAD for more money in Kemp deal: Kemp's medicals ugly, LAD has cash and needs Kemp deal more than SD does.

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) December 18, 2014

The holdup in Matt Kemp trade is because the physical revealed arthritis in both hips. The #Padres continue to consult medical experts.

— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) December 18, 2014

Arthritis in both hips. This isn’t something you hear too often, and it brings back memories of Albert Belle, who was one of the game’s most dominant hitters until an arthritic hip ended his career after the 2000 season. Belle’s decline was swift, as he went from a 165 wRC+ to a 139 wRC+ to a 104 wRC+ in his final three seasons, finally retiring after his age-33 season when it became clear that he wasn’t going to be able to play through the condition any longer.

Matt Kemp is only 30, and looked fine at the plate in the second half of last season, so maybe it all sounds scarier than it actually is. Maybe he’ll be fine, and the Dodgers will just kick in some extra money to get the deal done.

But this already looked like a bad deal for San Diego, and Kemp was already a poor fit for their park. Arthritic hips seem like the kind of thing that would make a defensive bounceback less likely, and on the surface, it would seem to serve Kemp’s interests to have him end up on an AL team where he could spend the bulk of his time at DH.

But it’s probably not as easy as the Padres just telling the Dodgers they changed their minds. As Ken Rosenthal and others have noted, Kemp’s medical information is protected by HIPAA, and should not have been released publicly, even anonymously. It would be difficult for the Dodgers to prove that the Padres leaked the information, but at the very least, backing out of the deal at this point might serve to make other teams reluctant to trade with San Diego in the future. A.J. Preller already had a reputation as a polarizing executive who didn’t always play by the rules during his days in Texas, and leaving the Dodgers holding a bag of arthritic hips wouldn’t be a good way to show everyone that he’s changed his stripes.

We should find out today whether this deal is happening or not. No matter what happens, this might get ugly for San Diego, either on the field or off of it.

According to the rules of Major League Baseball, a drafted player cannot be traded by his team within the first calendar year of signing his initial contract. According to another rule, however, teams can agree to trade players to another organization without specifying who they are for up to six months, meaning that teams can actually trade drafted players six months and one day after they sign, using the player to be named later loophole.

This is the back door that the Padres are using to ship Trea Turner to the Nationals as part of the Wil Myers trade that should be announced shortly. When the deal is announced, no one is going to officially acknowledge that Turner is part of it; he will simply be referred to as a PTBNL. And then, when spring training starts, he’s going to report to Peoria and train with the Padres. He’s going to stay in their system until June 14th, in fact, meaning that he’ll spend the first two months of the minor league season playing for a team that actually traded him before Christmas.

Back before the internet and the land grab of information, this maybe wasn’t worth worrying about. Now, though, nothing a baseball team does remains in the shadows for too long, and Turner is certainly aware of the fact that he’ll be switching teams in June. And yet, he still has to go to camp with the Padres, play in their minor league system, get treated by their doctors, make friends with their prospects, and bide his time until the rules say he can finally join the organization who sees him as their shortstop of the future.

This just all seems beyond silly. The PTBNL is such an established loophole to the trade exception that it doesn’t really make sense to continue the charade. Teams can currently trade drafted players six months after they sign, so let’s just make that the rule. Why make Turner go through a few months of this? Why make the Nationals sit around and hope that the Padres don’t screw up their asset while they don’t have custody over him? What’s the point of any of it?

The PTBNL can serve a legitimate purpose — trade returns can differ based on how a player performs after a deal, helping mitigate risk when trading for a health risk — but I see no real benefit to requiring teams to use it as a loophole around the trade limitation. Let teams officially trade prospects six months after they sign, as they already can, and let the PTBNL be used for instances where teams actually decide later on who the prospect is going to be. Once everyone agrees to move a kid from one organization to another, how about we just go ahead and let him move?

Just two years after getting shipped out of Kansas City, Wil Myers is reportedly on the move again. This time, he’s going to San Diego in a fascinating three way trade that looks to create more questions than it answers.

First, the most updated details, as we know them, via Mark Topkin.

Hearing #Rays are down to 2 scenarios on Myers trade, waiting to hear if #Nats are in or out.

— Marc Topkin (@TBTimes_Rays) December 17, 2014

Either way, #Rays said to give up Myers, Hanigan and 2 low minor-lgrs, and get back Rivera, B.Smith, Bauers from #Padres. Then ….

— Marc Topkin (@TBTimes_Rays) December 17, 2014

If #Nats are in, #Rays under these scenarios to get Souza and A-ball LHP. If #Nats out, #Rays said get J. Ross, Trea Turner from #Padres

— Marc Topkin (@TBTimes_Rays) December 17, 2014

Trea Turner was #Padres first-round pick so if he was in #Rays or #Nats deal he would have to be a PTNBL

— Marc Topkin (@TBTimes_Rays) December 17, 2014

As best as we can sort it out, it looks like the deal might be something like this.

San Diego gets Wil Myers, Ryan Hanigan, and pitching prospect Jose Castillo.
Tampa Bay gets Steven Souza, Rene Rivera, and prospects Burch Smith and Jake Bauers.
Washington gets Trea Turner and Joe Ross

If the Nationals part of the deal doesn’t happen, Souza would stay in WAS and TB would keep Ross and Turner.

The Padres get a young right-handed hitter who is supposed to be a future slugger, but he hasn’t shown that kind of power in the big leagues as of yet. And while Myers certainly still has enough upside to develop into what he was projected to be, this is a bit of an odd fit for San Diego, who already had Seth Smith in one corner and is close to acquiring Matt Kemp to play in the other corner. Something will have to give in SD’s crowded outfield, whether it’s Smith getting moved or Myers potentially heading to yet another team.

For the Rays, this is a bit more cut-and-dry. Souza is exactly their kind of player, an underrated prospect whom the projections adore, and they pick up a few additional pieces in exchange for making a perceived downgrade in right field. Souza destroyed Triple-A last year and Steamer has him as Myers equal for 2015.

He is a little bit older and hasn’t yet hit in the big leagues, but he comes with one extra year of team control, which is always valuable to the Rays. While the perceived gap between Myers and Souza is likely quite high, given that Souza has never been ranked as a top prospect, the forecasts think that this isn’t actually a huge step back for Tampa Bay. Even if you think the projections are too optimistic for Souza or too pessimistic for Myers, the Rays get a few additional minor pieces to offset some of that gap.

The Nationals seem to be the third team in this deal simply because the Rays wanted Souza as a Myers replacement; for them, this trade just moves some prospects around. Souza was blocked in Washington by Jayson Werth and Bryce Harper, so the Nationals turned him into a couple of pieces they’re more likely to be able to use. Ross gives them more pitching depth in case they end up trading an arm like Jordan Zimmermann, while Turner will slot in as Ian Desmond’s long-term replacement at shortstop.

We’ll have a full write-up (or two) on this once everything is official. My early take is that this is a fair-ish deal for all involved, pending what San Diego does to clear their new outfield logjam. The Rays seem to be betting on Souza’s projections, the Padres are betting on Myers power developing, while the Nationals are betting that two good prospects slightly further from the majors are better than one who is big league ready.

If you haven’t been on Twitter tonight, you’ve missed a series of pretty fascinating rumors. According to various reports — most easily summed up over at MLBTradeRumors — the Rays are working on a trade with the Padres that would send Wil Myers to San Diego. The likely return is not yet known, nor is it entirely certain that Myers would stay with the Padres, as Jeff Passan is suggesting that this deal could be the precursor for another trade.

Sense among those in the know is that while Padres-Rays deal involving Wil Myers is straight-up, players dealt could be on the move again.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 17, 2014

With Matt Kemp and Seth Smith already in the fold, the Padres don’t seem like a great fit for another corner outfielder, though they have been previously linked to Justin Upton, so perhaps they’re planning on acquiring Myers to replace Smith. But for a team that seems to be making moves to upgrade now, that would be a little odd, given the projections for 2015.

So, let’s just speculate a bit. What the Padres need more than another corner outfielder is a shortstop. You know who has an extra young shortstop and needs a corner outfielder? The Texas Rangers. You know where A.J. Preller just worked, running the international scouting department when Jurickson Profar was signed as a 16 year old? Yeah, the Texas Rangers.

Completely speculative, but perhaps the Padres are looking to acquire Myers because Preller knows that Jon Daniels wants him to play right field, and will give up Profar and some other of Preller’s old favorites. Given the injury problems Profar has suffered, I find it unlikely that there would be a one for one trade, but I could see a situation where the Padres are trading prospects to get the guy that gets them Profar.

Or, maybe they just love Wil Myers. There aren’t too many good young above average hitters on the market these days, and Smith isn’t good enough that you don’t acquire a piece of that value simply because it forces another deal. Perhaps we’ll find out soon. I think my wild speculation about a Myers-Profar second deal at least sounds reasonable, even if it’s based on nothing more than imagination.