Just yesterday, I took the chance to write a little something about Miles Mikolas, a non-Shohei Ohtani starting pitcher available now after spending years in Japan. I figured that Mikolas was flying under the radar, but I had no idea he was so close to signing a major-league contract. It’s a perfect example of accidental timeliness. Mikolas has now reached an agreement with the Cardinals, for $15.5 million over two years. It’s a bit north of what some executives expected, but demand drove the price. Mikolas will get another opportunity to start in the bigs, after having been one of the better starters in Japan for three years.

I’ll just re-post the same image from Monday:

For three years, but last year in particular, Mikolas has succeeded through strikes and ground balls. He’s wound up with good strikeout rates, too, but not so much because of true swing-and-miss stuff. He’s gotten strikeouts by getting ahead and staying ahead. By winning these sweepstakes, the Cardinals are expressing the most faith in Mikolas’ ability to keep hitting his spots in the majors. He blends a low-90s fastball with a big curve and a sharp slider, and that slider, last season, was one of the most effective secondary pitches in the NPB. Mikolas additionally led the league in innings pitched one year after missing time with shoulder discomfort. Being just 29, he should be around the prime of his career.

The popular comp seems to be Colby Lewis. When Lewis returned to the majors from Japan in 2010, he made 32 starts and was worth 4.7 WAR. That sets probably too high a bar, but the arsenals are similar, and the terms here are still perfectly affordable, even despite the widespread demand. Last offseason, Edinson Volquez signed for two years and $22 million. Jason Hammel signed for two years and $16 million. Charlie Morton signed for two years and $14 million. Hell, Travis Wood signed for two years and $12 million. This is roughly how Mikolas has been classified. It’s not hard to see how he could exceed market expectations.

The Rangers had been closely linked to Mikolas, having had him before. Apparently they were thinking about trying a six-man rotation, including Mikolas, Mike Minor, and — potentially — Ohtani. Now they won’t have Mikolas, and they still might not get Ohtani, but it’s clear they’re open-minded. As for the Cardinals, Mikolas joins Carlos Martinez, Michael Wacha, Adam Wainwright, Luke Weaver, Alex Reyes, and Jack Flaherty. The rotation is deep in talent, if not in track record. Reyes won’t be ready to begin the season, and he could open as a reliever. Flaherty could probably use more time in the minors. That leaves the Cardinals with five names, with further depth available as needed. This also makes it easier to part with a starter for a hitter, so, in short, there are options. Signing Mikolas decreases financial flexibility, but it increases resource flexibility. We already knew the Cardinals were looking to make trades, and now it’s that much easier to subtract from the potential starting staff.

Mikolas is no guarantee to succeed, but he’s already succeeded at one of the world’s highest levels. He’s earned this shot, and if his command can carry over, this could look like a great deal in six or seven months. At last, it feels like the offseason market is opening up. I’d say it’s about time.

Company Description:
We are a startup created by students and run by students. We seek to provide MLB teams, independent leagues, player representative agencies, and collegiate summer leagues with a third party nationwide scouting network. All positions are paid at rates tied to quantity and quality of work performed. As each position’s payment structure differs slightly, the specifics will be detailed upon inquiry.

To be clear, there are four positions listed here. A general qualification for all four positions is strong communication skills, as interaction remotely through GroupMe, Google Drive and mobile phone will be a vital part of the developmental process, regardless of position.
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Position: Cleveland Indians Baseball Operations Intern

Location: Cleveland
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Position: Detroit Tigers Baseball Operations Senior Analyst

Location: Detroit
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Position: Inside Edge Baseball Operations Intern

Location: Minneapolis
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To be clear, there are two positions here.

Position: Sports Info Solutions Research & Development Internship

Location: Coplay, Pa.
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Position: Texas Rangers Baseball Systems Developer

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The pitch clock is coming. It’s coming to the major leagues, and it is inevitable. It’s existed in the minors for a handful of years, and the whole idea there was that it was a trial. A test, before implementation on the biggest stage. From the sounds of things, you can expect to see pitchers — and hitters! — operating with a clock as soon as 2018. Whether you love it or hate it, don’t blame me. I’m just the messenger. And actually, no, Buster Olney is the messenger. I’m just the messenger’s messenger. An excerpt from his report:

But the foundation of the changes to come in 2018 will be in the implementation of a pitch clock, sources say, and MLB is intent on using the same limit used in the minor leagues the past three seasons — 20 seconds between pitches when there are no runners on base.
[…]
Twenty seconds, with pitchers required to begin their motion within 20 seconds of the previous pitch.

There are two key points in there:

1. 20 seconds
2. when there are no runners on base

If you check out our leaderboards, you’ll see that the league-average pace this past season was a hair over 24 seconds. Pace is the average time between pitches — cutting out pick-offs and mound visits and whatnot — and 24 is greater than 20. Now, the writing suggests pitchers would just have to begin throwing at 20 seconds, so maybe it would work out to be more like a 21- or 22-second cap. Your takeaway might be that a great number of pitchers will be affected. To say nothing of the hitters who have developed their own particular time-wasting quirks.

But the runners-on-base part is significant. There’s a truth you might feel, without truly knowing: Pitchers work faster when the bases are empty.

Pedro Baez is probably the current face of slow pitchers. He did average the slowest pace in all of baseball last season, and so it’s deserved. I want to show you something, with help from Baseball Savant. Here are all of Baez’s career games. I’m not talented enough to just pull all of Baez’s actual pace data when there have and haven’t been runners, but I can show you all his individual game paces, along with the rates of pitches thrown in those games with runners on. It works! The relationship is clear.

As Baez has thrown more and more pitches with runners on, he’s worked slower and slower. He’s made 24 career appearances in which he threw every pitch with a runner on, and his average pace in those games is 36.6 seconds. He’s made 62 career appearances in which he threw every pitch with no runner on, and his average pace in those games is 27.6 seconds. Still slow! Still needs to be sped up. But that’s a nine-second difference. Baez has responded to the situation, and he isn’t alone.

I found a post from January of 2015, written, coincidentally enough, by Sean Dolinar. He found that, with the bases empty, pitchers tended to deliver pitches within roughly 20 seconds. With runners on, however, they slowed down substantially, by eight, nine, or ten seconds. And it makes sense; those runners might be threats to advance, and the situations are more important, more threatening. Pitchers have to be more careful, and their attention is divided.

So while a pitch clock would make a real difference in the majors, it wouldn’t be as dramatic as you might be inclined to think, if it’s only active when the bases are empty. Certain pitchers would be forced to speed up, pitchers like Baez and dozens of others, but most pitchers would be able to work more or less like normal. Which, I think, is how the pitch clock has been received in the minors — most players have said they’ve hardly even noticed it. The real slow-downs take place when there’s a runner or two or three, and it doesn’t look like those situations are being targeted. Not as Olney wrote his report.

Maybe that just means this can be taken further down the road. And we can’t reach any certain conclusions when we don’t yet have an actual rule, with actual, explicit details. This is for baseball to sort out in the coming months. But it sounds like we’re about to have a pitch clock. And it sounds like it should have only a modest effect. Maybe that’s a good thing and maybe that’s a bad thing, but it’s a thing, and it’s for us and everyone else to get used to.

Position: San Diego Padres Baseball Systems Developer

Location: San Diego

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Harold Ramirez, once a top 100 prospect, was outrighted by the Toronto Blue Jays today. A 23 year old that used to have speed and bat-to-ball skills on his side, Ramirez has seen knee injuries rob him of the former. He was never a center fielder, and now has a ways to go to prove that he has the upside that his hitting tool once suggested he did.

But this may be a learning moment for Ramirez. Take a look at something Eric Longenhangen wrote this spring:

There are scouts who think Ramirez is a future plus hitter but acknowledge that it’s unlikely there will be more than 40 game power here at peak unless he drastically alters his approach. That offensive profile doesn’t play in left field without good defense, something I’m increasingly skeptical Ramirez will be able to provide. He hits, and therefore will likely find some sort of big-league role, likely as a bat-first bench outfielder.

Now take a look at all minor leaguers under the age of 24, graphed by their ground ball to fly ball ratio and speed score. Ramirez is in red.

It’s untenable to be as slow as Ramirez is now and hit as many grounders. That’s why he was released. He’s not a center fielder, so a decent hit tool alone is not going to float him to the major leagues.

But Ramirez is still young, and still has that hit tool — he was in the top 25 in the same grouping by strikeout rate — and another team may give him a chance. A chance to drastically alter his approach. And a release is just the kind of moment that spurs this kind of change.