In the first trade of the offseason, the Mariners shipped Logan Morrison, Danny Farquhar and Brad Miller to Tampa Bay in exchange for Nate Karns, C.J. Riefenhauser and outfield prospect Boog Powell. Dave Cameron covered the trade in depth this morning. I’m here to give you the skinny on Boog Powell according to my fancy computer math.
Powell split 2015 between Double-A and Triple-A, and hit a solid .295/.385/.392. Powell did an excellent job of controlling the strike zone: his 15% strikeout rate wasn’t too far from his 12% walk rate. He paired that plate discipline with a modicum of power and plus speed. He swiped 18 bases last year, and has primarily played center field in the minors.
Based on his 2015 season, KATOH pegs Powell for 4.7 WAR through age 28, which makes him roughly the 80th best prospect in KATOH’s eyes. This was a sizable step up from his 2014 forecast of 1.5 WAR. Below are his statistical comps, which were generated using Mahalanobis distance calculations.
|Rank||Name||PA thru 28||WAR thru 28||Mah Dist|
We see Andrew McCutchen, who added a substantial amount of power once he reached the major leagues. We also see Darin Erstad, who played elite defense. However, expecting Powell to do either of those things would be extremely optimistic. If we set those two aside, there’s not much here: a few bench players and a few Quad-A guys. As Dave Cameron noted in his piece earlier, Gregor Blanco seems like an optimistic, yet realistic, outcome for Powell.
So, yeah. Powell isn’t anything overly exciting, but he’s more than just an org guy. He has some interesting skills, and has already succeeded in the higher levels of the minor leagues. Given that next year will be his age-23 season, he stands a pretty good chance of spending a good amount of time in the big leagues, and could easily debut as soon as this year.