Projecting Brewers Center Fielder Lewis Brinson

Three months ago, few would have predicted the Brewers would be atop the National League Central in June, but here we are. The Cardinals, Cubs, and Pirates have all fallen short of preseason expectations, while Milwaukee has surprisingly kept their record above .500. Regardless of what the standings say, Milwaukee’s roster pales in comparison to the Cubs’ and Cardinals’ on paper, which is why we give the Brewers a mere 3% chance of winning the division.

Milwaukee’s team just got a bit better, however, as they’ve called up top prospect Lewis Brinson to play some outfield. Brinson was having a fine season in Triple-A, slashing .312/.397/.503. He’s hit very well for a center fielder — and exceptionally well for a good defensive center fielder who’s only 23.

Brinson’s come a long way since his early days as a professional, especially in the strikeout department. He struck out an alarming 38% of the time in Low-A back in 2013, but has hacked several percentage points off that mark since. His 22% strikeout rate in Triple-A this year is still a bit high, but not alarmingly so. He’s made this improvement without giving up much in other categories, either. His 20 extra-base hits, seven steals, healthy walk rate, and center-field defense more than outweigh the remaining strikeout risk.

KATOH adores Brinson, projecting him for 6.3 WAR over his first six seasons by the traditional method and 8.8 WAR by KATOH+, which incorporates his Baseball America ranking. The latter makes the No. 20 prospect in all of baseball. Both are up noticeably from the preseason. My model saw him as a no-doubt top-50 prospect over the winter, and he’s only improved his stock since.


To put some faces to Brinson’s statistical profile, let’s generate some statistical comps for the toolsy center fielder. I calculated a weighted Mahalanobis distance between Brinson’s Double-A and Triple-A performance and every season since 1991. In the table below, you’ll find the 10 most similar seasons, ranked from most to least similar. The WAR totals refer to each player’s first six seasons in the major leagues. A lower “Mah Dist” reading indicates a closer comp.

Please note that the Mahalanobis analysis is separate from KATOH. KATOH relies on macro-level trends, rather than comps. The fates of a few statistically similar players shouldn’t be used to draw sweeping conclusions about a prospect’s future. For this reason, I recommend using a player’s KATOH forecast to assess his future potential. The comps give us some interesting names that sometimes feel spot-on, but they’re mostly just there for fun.

Luis Brinson Mahalanobis Comps
Rank Name KATOH+ Proj. WAR Actual WAR Mah Dist
1 Jon Jay 5.3 11.4 2.2
2 Magglio Ordonez 5.2 20.8 2.2
3 Vernon Wells 12.5 18.7 2.6
4 Felix Pie 9.9 1.7 2.6
5 Ryan Sweeney 7.3 8.6 2.7
6 Joe Borchard 5.1 0.4 2.7
7 Alex Escobar 10.1 1.7 2.9
8 Andrew McCutchen 9.3 34.5 3.7
9 Mike Darr 5.4 1.3 3.8
10 Juan Pierre 10.9 19.3 3.9

Brinson’s always had exceptional tools, and the past couple of years, he’s shown that high-minors pitching is no longer a challenge for him. Paired with his elite defense, this makes him an excellent prospect. Brinson should provide the Brewers with a boon both offensively and defensively right away. And given his youth and broad range of skills, he could develop into a star in the near future.





Chris works in economic development by day, but spends most of his nights thinking about baseball. He writes for Pinstripe Pundits, FanGraphs and The Hardball Times. He's also on the twitter machine: @_chris_mitchell None of the views expressed in his articles reflect those of his daytime employer.

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kevinthecomic
6 years ago

Wow, those comps, except for McCutchen who is pretty far down the list, are pretty uninspiring. Jay, Maglio and Wells all had decent careers, but nothing approaching stardom. Curious that the conclusion is that Brinson “could develop into a star in the near future”, unless the operative word is “could”.

Francis C.
6 years ago
Reply to  kevinthecomic

Chris M. usually puts this disclaimer regarding the player comps.

“Please note that the Mahalanobis analysis is separate from KATOH. KATOH relies on macro-level trends, rather than comps. The fates of a few statistically similar players shouldn’t be used to draw sweeping conclusions about a prospect’s future. For this reason, I recommend using a player’s KATOH forecast to assess his future potential. The comps give us some interesting names that sometimes feel spot-on, but they’re mostly just there for fun.”

Francoeursteinmember
6 years ago
Reply to  kevinthecomic

Magglio Ordonez was an excellent hitter

PC1970
6 years ago
Reply to  Francoeurstein

Yeah, over 2100 hits, almost 300 HR, .309/.369/.502 slash line, 125 OPS +, 6 All Star games, 1 batting title, had some speed before he blew out his knee.

If you told Milwaukee they could have that career for Brinson, they would be ecstatic.

sadtrombonemember
6 years ago
Reply to  kevinthecomic

If you read enough of these comps lists, you realize that the likelihood of having more than 1 player with double-digit WAR is really low. This is one of the best comps lists KATOH has ever produced.

ChippersJonesing
6 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

That’s what I was going to say, the top 3 are all >10 WAR, which, I think, is one of the better ones I’ve ever seen.

Edit- Benintendi’s, who was KATOH+’s #1 overall prospect, list is top 5 all over 10 (including Grady Sizemore’s 30.4), and 7 of the top 10. Seems like that’s true of most of the other guys closer to the top of the KATOH list… which makes sense.

Mr Hardball
6 years ago
Reply to  kevinthecomic

Here are some comps. Eric Davis and Reggie Sanders. You are welcome.