Projecting Casey Meisner: The Other Guy in Clippard Trade

For the second time in a span of four days, the Mets have dipped into their surplus of young pitching talent to strengthen their 2015 roster. Over the weekend, they dealt two unremarkable pitching prospectsRob Whalen and John Gant — to add Juan Uribe and Kelly Johnson to their sputtering offense. Last night, they cut a deal with the Athletics for Tyler Clippard. In return, they coughed up another fringy arm in Casey Meisner.

Kiley McDaniel saw the 6-foot-7 righty in person over the weekend and provided a nice little write up (with video!) in a post last night. He concluded that Meisner’s fastball-curveball combination made him a potential league-average (#4) starter. That’s not particularly sexy, but it would be a fine return for 2-3 months of a reliever.

Meisner’s stat line isn’t quite as optimistic. Meisner split the 2015 season between Low-A and High-A, where he’s pitched to a sparkling 2.35 ERA as a 20-year-old. Sounds great, right? Not so fast. His .265 BABIP disguises his unremarkable 3.98 FIP. His 20% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate, meanwhile, are merely average.

As a result, KATOH forecasts Meisner for just 1.6 WAR through age-28, which is actually a notch down from his 2.2 mark following his performance in the New York-Penn League last season. The statistical comps paint a similarly dismal picture.

Rank Mah Dist Pitcher IP thru 28 WAR thru 28
1 0.14 Cristobal Correa 0 0.0
2 0.20 Kennil Gomez* 0 0.0
3 0.21 Tim Melville* 0 0.0
4 0.21 Corey Powell 0 0.0
5 0.25 Scott Randall 27 0.6
6 0.26 Doug Johnston 0 0.0
7 0.33 Jake Woods 162 0.0
8 0.37 Frankie Sanders 0 0.0
9 0.42 Carlos Chantres 0 0.0
10 0.44 Micah Bowie 71 0.0
11 0.44 Ronnie Ventura 0 0.0
12 0.48 Kevin Kloek 0 0.0
13 0.48 Shawn Morimando* 0 0.0
14 0.49 Mitch Talbot 232 0.8
15 0.50 Kyle Lobstein* 87 0.9
16 0.53 Jacob Faria* 0 0.0
17 0.53 Nick Pesco 0 0.0
18 0.56 Michael Foltynewicz* 0 0.0
19 0.58 Jason Shiell 24 0.0
20 0.58 Zach Miner 357 2.2

*Pitchers who have yet to play their age-28 seasons.

Meisner appears to be one of those pitchers whose performance lags behind his stuff. He’s 6-foot-7 and throws a mid-90s fastball, so the ingredients for success are certainly there. So far, however, he hasn’t performed in a way that suggests he has much of a big-league future. At age-20, though, he still has plenty of time to figure things out.

Chris works in economic development by day, but spends most of his nights thinking about baseball. He writes for Pinstripe Pundits, FanGraphs and The Hardball Times. He's also on the twitter machine: @_chris_mitchell None of the views expressed in his articles reflect those of his daytime employer.

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lol the mets most certainly did not cut a deal with the nationals. clippard has been playing for the A’s this year

Jayson Werth Chia Pet
Jayson Werth Chia Pet

Wouldn’t that be something!