On Wednesday night, the Astros acquired lights-out reliever Ken Giles from the Phillies in exchange for Vincent Velasquez, Brett Oberholtzer, Thomas Eshelman and outfield prospect Derek Fisher. Velasquez and Oberholtzer both pitched a substantial number of big league innings the last couple of years, and since KATOH’s only built for minor league stats, they fall a bit outside of my jurisdiction. I wrote about Velasquez when he was called up in June. Eshelman was the Astros’ second-round pick, and threw all of just 10 professional innings after signing. That’s not nearly enough to formulate a meaningful projection.

That leaves me with Derek Fisher — a toolsy outfielder who’s coming off of a 20-30 season in A-Ball. A 2014 supplemental first round pick, Fisher slashed .274/.364/.481 between Low-A and High-A last last year. His power is his most redeeming quality, as he posted ISOs north of .200 at both stops. The downside was that he struck out in 23% of his trips to the plate. A strikeout rate that high is a huge detractor for a guy in the low minors. KATOH projects Fisher for 2.6 WAR through age-28, which makes him roughly a back-end top-200 prospect.

Fisher’s upside is tantalizing. Last winter, Kiley McDaniel gave his raw power and speed grades of 60 and 65, respectively, making him one of the toolsiest players out there. But the 6-foot-3 slugger will need to work on making more contact at the higher levels. While he’s made it work in the low minors, low-contact hitters often sputter against better pitching. Here are his Mahalanobis comps.

Fisher’s statistical comps are riddled with toolsy players who fizzled in the high minors, from Dave Krynzel to Rod Smith to Dee Brown. On the bright side, players like Ian Desmond and Danny Espinosa made enough contact to make it work. Fisher’s a boom or bust prospect, whose ultimate future will likely depend on whether he makes enough contact to leverage his impressive power.