Arauz By Any Other Name: Projecting the Arauzes in the Ken Giles Trade

In the days since we first caught wind of the Ken Giles trade, we’ve learned of a few players who weren’t previously thought to be included. For one, the Astros sent pitching prospect Mark Appel to Philly, rather than outfield prospect Derek Fisher. Additionally, the two teams also swapped Arauzess: Middle infield prospect Jonathan Arauz is headed to Houston, while pitching prospect Harold Arauz goes to Philly. Although they share a last name, and happened to be in the same trade, the two are unrelated. Baseball can be weird sometimes. Anyway, here’s what KATOH thinks of these prospects. Note that WAR figures represent projected WAR through the player’s age-28 season based on 2015 minor-league stats.

Jonathan Arauz, 3.9 WAR (Profile)

The Phillies signed Jonathan Arauz out of Panama with a $600,000 bonus in the summer of 2014. Although he didn’t turn 17 until August, the Phillies brought Arauz stateside to start his pro career, and he didn’t embarrass himself. He hit .254/.309/.370 in 44 games while splitting time between second base and shortstop.

Those numbers may not sound great, but they’re very impressive for a guy so young. Arauz fared particularly well in the contact department (15% K), which is where it matters most for guys in the lower levels. He also exhibited non-negligible power, which is encouraging from a 16-year-old middle infielder.

Arauz is still very young, and is several years away from contributing. But he’s put up impressive numbers thus far. KATOH gives him a 15% chance of racking up at least 16 WAR through age 28, but just 54% chance of playing in the majors. Like all players so far away, Arauz is a high-risk asset, but his potential is intriguing.

Let’s take a look at some statistical comps for Arauz. “Mah Dist” denotes each player’s Mahalanobis distance from Arauz’s 2015 season, where the lower figure represents a more similar comp. Bobby Abreu and Enrique Hernandez are the names that stand out most here.

You Aren't a FanGraphs Member
It looks like you aren't yet a FanGraphs Member (or aren't logged in). We aren't mad, just disappointed.
We get it. You want to read this article. But before we let you get back to it, we'd like to point out a few of the good reasons why you should become a Member.
1. Ad Free viewing! We won't bug you with this ad, or any other.
2. Unlimited articles! Non-Members only get to read 10 free articles a month. Members never get cut off.
3. Dark mode and Classic mode!
4. Custom player page dashboards! Choose the player cards you want, in the order you want them.
5. One-click data exports! Export our projections and leaderboards for your personal projects.
6. Remove the photos on the home page! (Honestly, this doesn't sound so great to us, but some people wanted it, and we like to give our Members what they want.)
7. Even more Steamer projections! We have handedness, percentile, and context neutral projections available for Members only.
8. Get FanGraphs Walk-Off, a customized year end review! Find out exactly how you used FanGraphs this year, and how that compares to other Members. Don't be a victim of FOMO.
9. A weekly mailbag column, exclusively for Members.
10. Help support FanGraphs and our entire staff! Our Members provide us with critical resources to improve the site and deliver new features!
We hope you'll consider a Membership today, for yourself or as a gift! And we realize this has been an awfully long sales pitch, so we've also removed all the other ads in this article. We didn't want to overdo it.

Jonathan Arauz’s Mahalanobis Comps
Rank Name 2015 Age Mah Dist Career PA Career WAR
1 Angel Villalona 24 0.96 0 0.0
2 Erold Andrus 30 1.03 0 0.0
3 Marc Newfield 42 1.14 1,051 -1.8
4 Juan Santana 20 1.33 0 0.0
5 Dan Floyd 32 1.39 0 0.0
6 Bobby Abreu 41 1.48 10,081 59.2
7 Enrique Hernandez 23 1.61 352 2.9
8 Ronald Guzman 20 1.62 0 0.0
9 Michael Sandoval 33 1.73 0 0.0
10 Leo Castillo 21 1.81 0 0.0
11 Josh Kroeger 32 1.87 55 -0.3
12 Jomar Reyes 18 1.95 0 0.0
13 Edwin Garcia 24 2.13 0 0.0
14 Joaquin Arias 30 2.16 1,118 0.4
15 Jose Osuna 22 2.18 0 0.0
16 Pedro Lopez 31 2.19 55 -0.4
17 Luke Hughes 30 2.21 348 0.0
18 Jose Rondon 21 2.21 0 0.0
19 Maikel Franco 22 2.22 393 1.3
20 Yeyson Yrizarri 18 2.22 0 0.0

*****

Harold Arauz, 0.6 WAR (Profile)

The other Arauz, Harold, also comes from Panama, and signed back in 2011 for a $300k bonus. He spent the 2015 season in Short-Season A-Ball. He pitched decently last year, but wound up with a 5.75 ERA, largely due to a .404 BABIP against him. Crappy ERA aside, Arauz struck out 21% of batters faced, while walking just 7%.

For what it’s worth, Arauz was nearly lights out in Rookie Ball in 2014, when he struck out 31% of batters faced on his way to a 3.01 FIP. Among Arauz’s Mahalanobis comps, Johan Santana was the only real success story. After him, the most notable player was erstwhile Marlin, Michael Tejera. Harold Arauz is easily the less exciting Arauz in this trade, but is still mildly interesting.





Chris works in economic development by day, but spends most of his nights thinking about baseball. He writes for Pinstripe Pundits, FanGraphs and The Hardball Times. He's also on the twitter machine: @_chris_mitchell None of the views expressed in his articles reflect those of his daytime employer.

8 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
TerenceMember since 2016
10 years ago

In understanding your historical comparisons, are these the players who had a season most similar to the prospect, or are these the careers paths that look most probable for the prospect?

In other words did Angel Villalona have a 16 year old season that looks very similar to Jonathan Arauz’s, or does Harold Arauz have peripheral projections that look similar to Johan Santana’s displayed peripherals? Or am I wrong on all accounts?