Arauz By Any Other Name: Projecting the Arauzes in the Ken Giles Trade
In the days since we first caught wind of the Ken Giles trade, we’ve learned of a few players who weren’t previously thought to be included. For one, the Astros sent pitching prospect Mark Appel to Philly, rather than outfield prospect Derek Fisher. Additionally, the two teams also swapped Arauzess: Middle infield prospect Jonathan Arauz is headed to Houston, while pitching prospect Harold Arauz goes to Philly. Although they share a last name, and happened to be in the same trade, the two are unrelated. Baseball can be weird sometimes. Anyway, here’s what KATOH thinks of these prospects. Note that WAR figures represent projected WAR through the player’s age-28 season based on 2015 minor-league stats.
Jonathan Arauz, 3.9 WAR (Profile)
The Phillies signed Jonathan Arauz out of Panama with a $600,000 bonus in the summer of 2014. Although he didn’t turn 17 until August, the Phillies brought Arauz stateside to start his pro career, and he didn’t embarrass himself. He hit .254/.309/.370 in 44 games while splitting time between second base and shortstop.
Those numbers may not sound great, but they’re very impressive for a guy so young. Arauz fared particularly well in the contact department (15% K), which is where it matters most for guys in the lower levels. He also exhibited non-negligible power, which is encouraging from a 16-year-old middle infielder.
Arauz is still very young, and is several years away from contributing. But he’s put up impressive numbers thus far. KATOH gives him a 15% chance of racking up at least 16 WAR through age 28, but just 54% chance of playing in the majors. Like all players so far away, Arauz is a high-risk asset, but his potential is intriguing.
Let’s take a look at some statistical comps for Arauz. “Mah Dist” denotes each player’s Mahalanobis distance from Arauz’s 2015 season, where the lower figure represents a more similar comp. Bobby Abreu and Enrique Hernandez are the names that stand out most here.
Rank | Name | 2015 Age | Mah Dist | Career PA | Career WAR |
1 | Angel Villalona | 24 | 0.96 | 0 | 0.0 |
2 | Erold Andrus | 30 | 1.03 | 0 | 0.0 |
3 | Marc Newfield | 42 | 1.14 | 1,051 | -1.8 |
4 | Juan Santana | 20 | 1.33 | 0 | 0.0 |
5 | Dan Floyd | 32 | 1.39 | 0 | 0.0 |
6 | Bobby Abreu | 41 | 1.48 | 10,081 | 59.2 |
7 | Enrique Hernandez | 23 | 1.61 | 352 | 2.9 |
8 | Ronald Guzman | 20 | 1.62 | 0 | 0.0 |
9 | Michael Sandoval | 33 | 1.73 | 0 | 0.0 |
10 | Leo Castillo | 21 | 1.81 | 0 | 0.0 |
11 | Josh Kroeger | 32 | 1.87 | 55 | -0.3 |
12 | Jomar Reyes | 18 | 1.95 | 0 | 0.0 |
13 | Edwin Garcia | 24 | 2.13 | 0 | 0.0 |
14 | Joaquin Arias | 30 | 2.16 | 1,118 | 0.4 |
15 | Jose Osuna | 22 | 2.18 | 0 | 0.0 |
16 | Pedro Lopez | 31 | 2.19 | 55 | -0.4 |
17 | Luke Hughes | 30 | 2.21 | 348 | 0.0 |
18 | Jose Rondon | 21 | 2.21 | 0 | 0.0 |
19 | Maikel Franco | 22 | 2.22 | 393 | 1.3 |
20 | Yeyson Yrizarri | 18 | 2.22 | 0 | 0.0 |
*****
Harold Arauz, 0.6 WAR (Profile)
The other Arauz, Harold, also comes from Panama, and signed back in 2011 for a $300k bonus. He spent the 2015 season in Short-Season A-Ball. He pitched decently last year, but wound up with a 5.75 ERA, largely due to a .404 BABIP against him. Crappy ERA aside, Arauz struck out 21% of batters faced, while walking just 7%.
For what it’s worth, Arauz was nearly lights out in Rookie Ball in 2014, when he struck out 31% of batters faced on his way to a 3.01 FIP. Among Arauz’s Mahalanobis comps, Johan Santana was the only real success story. After him, the most notable player was erstwhile Marlin, Michael Tejera. Harold Arauz is easily the less exciting Arauz in this trade, but is still mildly interesting.
Chris works in economic development by day, but spends most of his nights thinking about baseball. He writes for Pinstripe Pundits, FanGraphs and The Hardball Times. He's also on the twitter machine: @_chris_mitchell None of the views expressed in his articles reflect those of his daytime employer.
In understanding your historical comparisons, are these the players who had a season most similar to the prospect, or are these the careers paths that look most probable for the prospect?
In other words did Angel Villalona have a 16 year old season that looks very similar to Jonathan Arauz’s, or does Harold Arauz have peripheral projections that look similar to Johan Santana’s displayed peripherals? Or am I wrong on all accounts?
Those are the players whose seasons were most similar to the prospect’s. The lists are also meant to represent some possible futures for the prospect.