Start Speculating: David Price is Available
After a few weeks of will-they-or-won’t-they speculation, the Tigers have reportedly decided that 2015 just isn’t going to be their year after all, and are going to start taking offers for pending free agents David Price and Yoenis Cespedes, among others. Price should be expected to command an equal (or likely somewhat better) return to what Johnny Cueto fetched from the Royals, while Cespedes becomes another option in an outfield market that is suddenly looking a little bit crowded.
The teams in the hunt for rent-an-aces have been pretty clearly defined, with the Blue Jays and Dodgers mentioned the most frequently, and the Yankees, Cubs, Giants, and Astros also a possibility. With Dallas Keuchel and Scott Kazmir at the front of their rotation, the Astros might not be as inclined to pay for a third lefty, which might make them a little too easy to match up against in a postseason series, so I’d probably put them on the outer edges of the Price market, but they reportedly made a run at Cole Hamels, so it’s not impossible to think they’ll pivot to make a run at Price as well.
I still don’t think the Cubs really should be in the market for a frontline starter not under control beyond this season either, as they have both Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta as legitimate options to start a Wild Card game and Game 1 of a postseason series if they reach those spots. Giving up significant long-term assets to bump one of their best players out of the only playoff game they might appear in doesn’t seem like a good risk-reward balance.
So for my money, the front-runners should be Toronto, LA (if they don’t get Hamels), San Francisco, and New York. But the deadline is often full of mystery, and no one saw the Jon Lester/Yoenis Cespedes trade coming a year ago, so perhaps we’ll see another surprise entry into the market to give Detroit the kind of short-term package they’re looking for. With Dombrowski stating that this is a “reboot” towards making their 2016 team better, this isn’t going to be about getting the best prospect package back, but about who can offer the most short-term help for the Tigers roster next year.
The Cespedes market isn’t as clear cut, as a number of teams could use another good outfielder. Considering that he’s having a better season than Justin Upton and the Tigers don’t have a qualifying offer to use as leverage to demand a certain minimum return in order to make a deal, teams interested in Upton may do well to pivot to Cespedes instead. The big losers in this news are likely the San Diego Padres, who might have just seen their interested buyers get distracted by newer and shinier objects up in Detroit.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Dodgers: First
As my Phillies stumble to the finish line of the trade deadline with Cole Hamels still on the books.
Probably Dodgers, maybe Yankees, dark horse Pirates.
Tigers trade pieces are “shiner” then the Padres but some of the Padres come with a little bit of team control. Three team trade Dodgers get Price, Tigers Ross, Padres get MiLB players from Dodgers.
Sheilds, Cashner, Ross and Kimbrel all look like reboot pieces, more high volume multi team trades.
Lots of pivoting going on here! I may need a pivot table to keep up. *Giggle snort*
Off top of my head — could Tigers send both Price and Cespedes to Dodgers in a deal for (or centered around) Puig? Seems to be a lot of smoke about Puig possibly being on market / out of favor in LA. Getting a MLB star back would fit with Tigers’ “rebooting.” Or is that too much for Dodgers to give up?
“newer and shinier objects up in Detroit”
You don’t hear that often.
Since a July 21 InstaGraphs post on the topic of whether the Tigers should sell, they went from 26.5% playoff odds (according to Fangraphs of course) to 12.7%. Despite today’s fine outing by Verlander, the starting pitching seems to be a mess with few reinforecements at AAA. It does feel like time to sell.
The Pirates made a run at Price last year. They have the farm system to get it done without mortgaging the future. I think it’s pretty clear they are one of the 3 best teams in baseball right now. Wouldn’t hurt them to get a second ace to pair with Cole.
To apply Dave’s logic of the Cubs, the Pirates are very likely a wild card team. If they play a one game playoff, Price isn’t that much more valuable than Gerrit Cole.
Price helps them chase down the Cards.
But Price or Cole would be an upgrade over Liriano or Burnett for starting game 1 of the NLDS after winning the wild card game. Dave’s Cubs argument is they already have Arrieta and Lester for those two games.
I’m thinking the Mets should make a run at both of them. Maybe deGrom/Conforto for Price/Cespedes. Sure, it’s a lot of talent to give up for an extra win or so this year – but at least it would prove to Craig Edwards that they’re willing to spend money.
You lost us at deGrom
I was referencing Craig’s absurd piece earlier today where he criticized the ‘cheap’ Mets for not overpaying for people like Reyes.
I have a sneaking suspicion AA will get it done for the Jays; he is exactly the guy we need.
I hope Magic Johnson enjoys his World Series ring.
Could see an exchange of MLB starters, like a reverse of the trade the brought Price in and sent (the controllable) Smyly to Tampa.
Just take Norris and Pompey and give us Price. Flags Fly Forever.