The Angels’ Left-Side Defense Is Going to Be Insane
The Angels have been hunting around for a third baseman. Today, they found one by signing a shortstop.
Source: Cozart deal with #Angels is for three years, $38M. LAA just announced signing.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 15, 2017
Zack Cozart’s timing of his breakout was a bit unfortunate, as most contenders are already set at SS, so he found his home with a winning team by agreeing to play next to one of the few guys who can legitimately push Cozart off the position. Andrelton Simmons and Cozart playing side by side is going to be a pretty special left side defense combination.
That said, any time there’s a position switch, we don’t know exactly how the skills are going to translate. While Cozart has been an excellent shortstop and likely will be excellent at third as well, there could be some diminishing returns here, with his range less well utilized at third than it was at second. And I will continue to have some reservations about how much of his offensive breakout should be counted on, given that Cozart had the third-largest gap between his wOBA and his xwOBA in MLB last year.
Given that offense is a bit more expected at third base, Cozart might end up closer to a Chase Headley type than Angels fans are hoping for, though younger Chase Headley was still a perfectly solid player, and 3/$38M for that kind of production is just fine.
And realistically, if Kinsler gets hurt, this gives them some 2B depth, as Cozart should shift to the other middle infield spot, and then they could play Luis Valbuena at 3B again. So this does give them some protection at both middle infield spots while also upgrading 3B. It’s a nice little signing at this price, and should help set the Angels up as legitimate Wild Card contenders. They just shouldn’t expect to slug .550 ever again.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Angels going all in… Astros and Rangers are decent… looks like more rebuilding for the A’s and M’s.
the rangers are terrible lol
And the Stros are a smidge better than decent.
just a hair or 2
[team name] is [random adjective]… Post Comment
Looks like a programming string for the next spambot looking to make $650/wk.
LEGITIMATE… (Wild Card contenders)
*WC2
They could definitely challenge for WC1. Not favourites, but it wouldn’t shock me.
Not like I called Cozart to 3B or anything. Posters here flambeed me for that.
I won’t hold my breath to see any contrition thrown my way.
I thought the Halos leaned a bit RHed and were a better fit for a LHed bat but this is a flat out steal just the same.
Get it all out…
Weak attention beg.
A cookie you want?
Sorry just got back from watching Star Wars. Highly recommended.
No one cares about you go away you ugly troll
I’m a little surprised they didn’t spring for Moustakas, but maybe the asking price was that much higher than they were willing to go. Or maybe they didn’t like that he is a lower-OBP guy.
I would guess there’s a chance that Cozart plays 2nd base next year once Kinsler’s contract is up. This gives them some positional flexibility next offseason if they want to go after Josh Donaldson or someone like him. Or if Cowart or Marte suddenly establish themselves as adequate players.
There’s also the issue that Moose’s defense slid and he’s one of the slowest runners in baseball. If you’re looking at a guy who could very quickly end up as a 1B/DH and you’ve already got Pujols, the long-term deal he presumably expects just isn’t very attractive.
Honestly? I have no idea where Moustakas is going to end up now. The Giants apparently aren’t interested. He’s currently out of the Yankees’ and Pirates’ price range. The Nationals (often a soft landing spot for Boras clients) don’t have an opening at 3rd. Who’s left? The Phillies? Mets? Braves? If there’s one guy who I think might lose a lot in musical chairs, it’s him.
Cardinals could sign him as an upgrade and then have spare parts to go shopping for bullpen upgrades.
But they also have Matt Carpenter already at 1B and NL rules.
As a Cardinals fan, I hope that they don’t sign Moustakas, or at least definitely not at anything even close to his current asking price. I don’t think that he’s much if any of an upgrade over Gyorko. Steamer sort of agrees with that, as it projects Moustakas about 0.5 WAR better in 2018.
Gyorko potentially has value as a bench utility player, even if the last couple years say that he’s overqualified for that role. He’s awfully marginal for even limited defensive time at shortstop, though, and I think that getting Munoz and Schrock in the recent trade with the A’s has eased some of the concern about a lack of injury depth at 3B / 2B / SS. Greg Garcia is also a perfectly adequate utility player for the team, and I think better-suited for it because unlike Gyorko he can actually play shortstop at an OK level.
Atlanta was my first thought.
To clarify, I think Moustakas will definitely find work somewhere and ATL and STL certainly are possible. But I also think that if the Cardinals and Braves are entering the bidding that means his price has fallen quite a bit.
Atlanta
This is why I am glad that Eppler is now running the show instead of Dipoto. Eppler prioritizes defense speed and versatility more than I believe Dipoto did during his time in Anaheim (Also why I believe Dipoto and Scioscia clashed as much as they did while Scioscia gets along great with Eppler)
Cozart’s 2017 line: .297/.385/.548 141 wRC+
xStats expected: .278/.369/.473 112 xOBA+
Basically an “extra” 6 HRs and 4 or 5 triples in his actual line. Still though if he’s more like a 110 wRC+ hitter with good (and possibly great) defense, that seems like pretty solid value assuming he won’t fall off a cliff by the time the contract ends in his age 35 season.
Using the handedness park factors (most recent in FG is 2015), Cozart is going from a park with a 114 HR factor for righties, to one with a 94. Now factor in the xwOBA gap in the posting. From a fake game perspective, for those in leagues where he will be a 3B, that has to affect his relative value, too.
$38 mil for 3 years means the Angels are paying him to produce a little less than 5 wins between 2018-2020. Or, to put it another way, a little less than what he produced in 2017.
Hard to argue this isn’t a massive bargain. Getting 1.5-2 WAR a year for three years should be simple, even with regression.
Well, they’re paying him to produce. They figure that he’s more cost-effective than their other options at third base. Those cost-of-win analyses reflect how much teams have paid in the past for what actually happened, not how much teams expect to get.
Cozart has always had power – more than most SS – but he never walked and struck out a lot. Which is okay for a defense-first SS.
But last year his BB% improved by a lot. That’s not a fluke, that’s Joey Votto school of hitting. His swing rate went down, contact rate went up.
I’d be surprised if he DIDN’T beat his .260/.330/.420 Steamer projection.
I think a lot with Cozart depends on the ball. He’s one of those fringey power guys who was really helped by the extra flight. If the ball’s still juiced, I think he’ll do well; if not, I think he’ll fall off fairly badly (but still probably be worth the contract).
Thing is, he’s also going from GABP to Angels stadium. The ball is probably gonna stay the same, because dingers, but one of the two major reasons for his xwOBA-wOBA gap is now gone.
Does UZR take infield shifting into account? I wonder whether some of the value of Cozart’s range might be realized if he ends up playing in the center of the diamond on shifts.
This is a really interesting question. Having two of the best defensive shortstops in the league on your team sure does seem like it’d come in handy in the Age of the Infield Shift.
But it’s also the age of the extreme fly ball hitter, so I wonder how much true impact this is going to have.
Fun to see this in contrast to the Santana deal. While that one makes no sense to me, this fit is perfect and the contract reasonable. Maybe cozart won’t be his 2017 self, but kudos to the angels for taking the risk and giving us all the slightest hope of a mike trout v clayton kershaw world series matchup.
They just shouldn’t expect Cozart* to slug .550 again (I don’t think they were ever hoping to as a team, haha).
With Simmons, Kinsler, Cozart I say punt dead Albert and divide the infield in 3; play a 4th OF/Rover position.
Their defense is going to be fun to watch (and maybe a specific starting pitcher), but could the lack of lineup balance be an issue? Clahoun and Valbuena/Ohtani are their LHH’s. I get that the Astros got away with a RHH-heavy lineup, and most of those RHH’s are great, but it seems like something worth noting. The durability of their pitching staff will be another things to watch.