The Astros Extend Jose Altuve… Again

The Astros have reportedly come to an agreement on a second extension for their second baseman, and the reigning AL MVP, Jose Altuve. Only, this time, Altuve did not sign as cheaply.

The reported five-year, $151-millon deal will begin in 2020, or Altuve’s age-30 season.

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Entering the 2014 season, the Astros signed Altuve to a pre-arb buyout deal that included two club options. At the time, it was unclear if the undersized Altuve would ever become more than a high-contact, low-power second baseman.

He was coming off an uninspiring season that included a .283/.316/.363 slash line, an 84 wRC+, and 0.7 WAR. Over three full seasons, the maybe 5-foot-6 dynamo had compiled just over two wins. The four-year, $12.5 millon deal with club options — options which, when exercised, will make it a six-year, $23.2 millon pact — seemed like a reasonable deal.

Since signing that agreement, however, Altuve has been excellent, recording a batting line at least 20% better than league average in four consecutive seasons — including a 151 and 160 wRC+ in the last two campaigns, respectively. As soon as Altuve traded upside for security, he became a star.

Altuve ranks third in WAR since the start of the 2014 season.
(Photo: Keith Allison)

Altuve has continued to evolve, now exhibiting once unthinkable power, including consecutive 20-plus-homer seasons. He’s produced 26.2 WAR to date and cost the club only $12.7 million. It’s one of the great club-friendly deals of our time.

But now, Altuve is rightly going to be paid like a star.

The contract will rank 31st all-time in total dollars. While it’s possible Altuve could earn more should he wait and hit the open market — while it’s possible he could earn Robinson Cano money — he’s again trading in some upside for security in the event he sustains a serious injury or suffers premature decline. But he will be paid more closely to his true value, even if the deal might still provide surplus value for the club.

Altuve has been one of the most durable players in the game. The contract is not unlike the second extension to which the Rays and Evan Longoria agreed after Longoria had been playing on an absurdly undervalued deal. The Astros are also taking on some level of risk.

Still, Altuve and the Astros should stick together. They’ve grown up together. They’ve tanked together. They’ve come of age and won a World Series together. And while this website rarely emphasizes the importance of counting numbers, it would be kind of cool to see Altuve and the Astros reach 3,000 hits together.

He enters 2018 with 1,250 career hits. He’s posted four straight seasons of at least 200. He’ll be under club control for seven more years, according to the report. At 200 hits per season, he could be close to the magic hit number by the close of this second extension. Maybe that will lead to a third extension?

This is a difficult era in which to reach 3,000 hits, one of the traditional benchmarks for a Hall of Fame batter. It’s a benchmark that will need to be replaced with more modern accounting as we move forward, perhaps. But if anyone can reach 3,000 hits today, it will be Altuve — and perhaps he will do it as an Astro, a rare one-star-with-one-team career.





A Cleveland native, FanGraphs writer Travis Sawchik is the author of the New York Times bestselling book, Big Data Baseball. He also contributes to The Athletic Cleveland, and has written for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, among other outlets. Follow him on Twitter @Travis_Sawchik.

27 Comments
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MikeD
8 years ago

Seems like a good deal all around. The Astros lock up their star player, but avoid having to face paying him on the north side of 34, as the Mariners will with Cano. I guess the one red flag here relates to the more rapid decline 2B’man often see compared to other position players, compounded by Altuve being a speed player. Still, I believe there’s a good chance he’ll be valuable throughout the deal, even as he declines some.

Curious though how this extension will work related to the luxury tax. Does it get added to his prior deal, thus lowering the AAV below $30 million a year, or is it treated as a separate deal? That could end up as a consideration as the Astros payroll rises and they try and lock up their young stars who will become more expensive. Consistent winning means higher payrolls.

baubo
8 years ago
Reply to  MikeD

The tweet sounds like a simple extension after picking up both his option years. While I kind of agree with you that I think spreading out that much make more long term sense, it’s possible the Astros may prefer to go for maximum short term gain. And allow space to add salary at the deadline.

LHPSU
8 years ago
Reply to  MikeD

I mentioned this in another post, but I think the perception that 2B decline faster than other players is something of a myth in the current environment.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
8 years ago
Reply to  LHPSU

I don’t know where this idea comes from that 2B’s decline faster than other players. I’ve heard it about catchers, about center fielders, about first basemen…

And don’t know why second basemen would supposedly decline earlier than shortstops, except that second basemen are usually a little less athletic than shortstops to begin with.

timprov
8 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

I think it mostly comes from the way Roberto Alomar fell off the planet.

Jon
8 years ago

“if anyone can reach 3,000 hits today, it will be Altuve” – Robinson Cano might have something to say about this statement. Altuve may be more likely to end up with *more* hits than Cano, but given how much closer he is, I’d argue Cano is more likely to reach 3000.

Roger21
8 years ago
Reply to  Jon

Cano and Altuve are both plausible choices, but I’d personally put money on Pujols collecting 32 more hits sometime in the 4 years remaining on his contract.

emh1969
8 years ago
Reply to  Roger21

Also Cabrera. Under contract for 6 more years, only 364 hits away.

FrancoeursteinMember since 2020
8 years ago
Reply to  emh1969

6 more years? Yikes..

emh1969
8 years ago
Reply to  Francoeurstein

Potentially 8 but he has to finish in the top 10 in MVP voting for the contract to extend.

ShauncoreMember since 2019
8 years ago
Reply to  emh1969

You just know that he will have one outstanding year, in like 2021, costing the Tigers another $60M

emh1969
8 years ago
Reply to  Shauncore

Sorry, didn’t fully explain it above. A top 10 MVP finish in 2023 (age 40) extends the contract to 2024. A top 10 MVP finish in 2024 (age 41) extends it to 2025.

Unlikely, but not impossible. Ortiz finished 6th in his age 40 season. Of course, if Cabrera replicated Ortiz’ age 40 season, I’m sure the Tigers would be happy to pay him $30 million the next year.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
8 years ago
Reply to  Roger21

That guy with “Pujols” on the back of his jersey is not Albert Pujols. He’s like a reanimated zombie Pujols.

MikeD
8 years ago
Reply to  Jon

Correct, if we’re limiting this discussion to either Cano and Altuve and completely ignoring Pujols. Cano has six years remaining on his contract and is a little more than 600 hits from 3,000. He has to average 104 hits a season to get there. The length of his deal and the amount of money owed guarantees him regular playing time short of a complete collapse. He’s played in 150 or more games for 11 straight seasons and has averaged 182 hits a year his four seasons in Seattle. He’s a near lock.

The battle to get 3,000 hits is determined in a player’s 30s, and generally the second half of a player’s 30s. Cano has entered that zone and is still productive and has a contract that incents his team to play him. Altuve’s deal ends when he’s 34. He’ll need to remain productive enough to keep getting deals into his later 30s. No guarantee there.

Craftcj
8 years ago

Sentimental though I may sound, I too hope Altuve stays with the Astros for his entire career. I was disappointed to see Utley and Rollins leave Philadelphia, and as a Reds fan, I would hate to see Votto depart Cincinnati. I understand that these feelings have to give way to the business of baseball, and I hardly fault players for wanting to extend their careers, but I still find something special in the bond between a city and a star player who spends his entire career in that town.

carterMember since 2020
8 years ago

It is one of those rare deals where you feel like both sides got a good deal

sadtromboneMember since 2020
8 years ago
Reply to  carter

I don’t know if it’s a good deal, because the aging curves for guys Altuve’s size are undefined. We have no idea how he’s going to age. In that sense, it may not be a “good” deal for both sides but it seems like a fair deal since Altuve is such a unicorn.

Geebs
8 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Being as “good” is a synonym of “fair” all you did was repeat what he said with more words.

Cool Lester SmoothMember since 2020
8 years ago
Reply to  Geebs

This would be a much stronger argument, if “good” actually were a synonym of “fair.”

It’s not, though.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
8 years ago
Reply to  Geebs

I don’t think I was strongly disagreeing with carter or anything here. I would argue that (a) “good” and “fair” in this context are things that are related to each other, rather than synonyms, and (b) you got a lot more out of one short sentence than I did.

francis_soyer
8 years ago

I bet they made him show at the White House before finalizing this.

scooter262
8 years ago
Reply to  francis_soyer

Has Altuve been outspoken on his political leanings? I’ve not heard any quotes from him on politics, but I could have missed them. On another note, the deal reminds me of the Dustin Pedroia $100 million contract. And Red Sox fans are happy with that deal, which is half over. Even though he is declining, fans are happy to still have him on the Red Sox

egregious comment
8 years ago
Reply to  francis_soyer

I bet you are a foolish & silly man.

cjh
8 years ago
Reply to  francis_soyer

Lighten up Francis

francis_soyer
8 years ago
Reply to  cjh

“Girl you know it … Girl you know it … Girl you know it … Girl you know it … Girl you know it … Girl you know it’s true … “

Sooted72
8 years ago

in a vacuum i dont love it for houston. it just seems unnecessary like the cabrera extension (though obv this deal is a lot less potentially hamstring-y long term). given his age, skillset and contract, id be very tempted to just let him play it out and attempt to resign him in 2 years if you still want.

having said that, i get it. rewarding/locking up your superstar who just brought you a world series is a great feeling. i do wonder if this helps or hurts the future resignings of correa and springer though.

The GuruMember since 2026
8 years ago

this is a huge deal for the astros. those guys have historically had to pinch pennies to make ends meet and keep lights on. good for them.