The Schwarber/Altherr Results

Yesterday, I published a post comparing and contrasting the virtues of a pair of NL left fielders, Kyle Schwarber and Aaron Altherr. They are pretty different kinds of players, but to this point, their career numbers are very similar, and I thought it was an interesting question to consider which of the two you’d rather have going forward.

At the end of the post, I included a series of three polls, asking you to select a range for your view of the future expected performance for both players, as well as asking you to pick which one you’d rather have going forward. The results of those polls should something very close to a down-the-middle split.

When it came down to pick a side, Schwarber won 54/46, so there’s a slight edge to the bat-first, longer track record guy, but it certainly wasn’t any kind of blowout. And when you look at the expected performance buckets, it seems that Schwarber’s slight edge comes down to perceived upside.

A plurality of voters picked the +2 to +3 WAR bucket for both players, with 49% of Altherr’s votes going in that category, compared to 48% of Schwarber’s. There was a pretty large block of you guys that agreed that these guys are both above-average players, but not quite reaching star levels.

The +3 to +4 WAR bucket was the second most common choice for both players, and here, Schwarber pulled ahead slightly, 34% to 30%. Then it was +1 to +2 WAR, with Altherr getting 14% of his votes in that bin versus 9% for Schwarber. +4 to +5 WAR went 6% to 4% for Schwarber, and then +5 or better went 3% to 2% for Schwarber.

So overall, 43% of voters saw Schwarber as a +3 WAR or better player, the legitimate star that he’s been hyped up to be since being taken #4 overall. Only 37% of voters saw Altherr at that same level, and those who weren’t willing to put him in that category didn’t shift to the +2 to +3 WAR category, but instead, saw him as a role player, a fringe starter, effectively not buying into his 2017 performance as a significant indicator of change.

Essentially, the votes indicate that, while similar, you guys see a slightly higher upside with Schwarber. I’m guessing some of those higher-upside votes came from the idea that a new team could use him at first base, and his defensive limitations in left field would go away if Anthony Rizzo wasn’t standing in his way of the position he’s likely best suited for. If you think Schwarber could play a reasonable 1B and hit at a 130 or 140 wRC+ level, then yeah, that +4 to +5 WAR level is definitely reachable.

Altherr’s path to stardom in left field is easier; he just has to hit at a 120 to 130 wRC+ level, and his athleticism should carry the rest of the skillset. But while it was close, it appears that a few more of you buy into Schwarber hitting at a higher level, or changing positions, than see Altherr hitting at that level.





Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.

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Rational Fanmember
6 years ago

Given Schwarbers likely inability to ever hit for a very high average, the odds of him being a 4+ WAR player seem very unlikely. I hate to continue using the Napoli comp, but the left handed Mike Napoli seems like the future in front of Schwarber.

To put a 4 WAR bat into perspective, Frank Thomas in 2003 hit .267 (right along the lines of what you may be able to expect from Schwarber down the line) with a .390 OBP, .562 Slugging percentage and a 147 wRC+. That was worth 4.2 WAR. You have to figure that might even be peak Schwarber, if that. The 5+ WAR seasons from guys like Edgar Martinez and Thomas just don’t seem attainable from a guy like Schwarber given his batted ball profile.

Got to figure that Altherr has the higher upside for that alone. He can add something on the field and possibly the base paths.

374285942768
6 years ago
Reply to  Rational Fan

to put things more in perspective, Frank Thomas’ 2013 slash was good for a 147 wRC+, Kris Bryant last year, who had an OPS .013 points lower, finished with a 149 wRC+. not only that, last year christian yelich had a .367 wOBA and a 130 wRC+. in other words, pretty similar to Schwarber’s .364 and 132 respective numbers from 2015. christian yelich rated as an average defender, pretty much like schwarber does this year despite the constant cheap shots everyone seems to take at his defense, and yelich put up a 4.4 WAR. suffice it to say, if Schwarber does finish with a 0.952 OPS, he’ll be well above 4.2 WAR even playing in left field.

374285942768
6 years ago
Reply to  374285942768

i now understand the irony of referencing frank thomas’ non-extant 2013 season numbers when speaking of correct perspective.