Tigers Sign Jordan Zimmermann
Well, the first major free agent domino has fallen, as the Tigers have agreed to sign RHP Jordan Zimmermann to a five year, $110 million deal. While I listed Zimmermann as a potential landmine to avoid this winter, that was with the expectation that he’d end up getting something closer to the 7 year, $140 million deal I guessed, but this comes in even below the crowd’s expected 6 year, $126 million estimate; it is pretty rare that a high-end player signs for less than the crowd expects.
At this price, Zimmermann seems a good bit more likely to be worth the deal. With an assumed cost of $8 million per win this winter, plus 5% annual inflation, this price is almost exactly what you’d expect if you projected Zimmermann as a +3.5 WAR pitcher for 2016.
| Year | Age | WAR | $/WAR | Est. Value |
| 2016 | 30 | 3.5 | $8.0 M | $28.0 M |
| 2017 | 31 | 3.0 | $8.4 M | $25.2 M |
| 2018 | 32 | 2.5 | $8.8 M | $22.1 M |
| 2019 | 33 | 2.0 | $9.3 M | $18.5 M |
| 2020 | 34 | 1.5 | $9.7 M | $14.6 M |
| Totals | 12.5 | $108.4 M |
Value: $8M/WAR with 5.0% inflation
Aging Curve: +0.25 WAR/yr (18-27), 0 WAR/yr (28-30),-0.5 WAR/yr (31-37),-0.75 WAR/yr (> 37)
That’s certainly not an absurd expectation, given his career track record; he’s averaged +3.7 WAR per 200 innings up to this point, and has been at +3.0 or better in five straight seasons. Steamer has him at closer to +3 WAR for next year, as it’s a little down on him due to the decline in velocity and strikeout rates in 2015, and it doesn’t think he’ll be able to keep suppressing home runs as he did earlier in his career. But even at that somewhat pessimistic forecast, he still looks like about a $90 million pitcher, so this isn’t some huge risk for Detroit. If he stays healthy, this contract will probably turn out fine for Detroit.
It will be interesting to see what Zimmermann signing for less than expected will do to the rest of the mid-tier pitching market. I’d imagine Johnny Cueto’s agents aren’t thrilled with this deal.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
I think you should check your player link, Dave. =)
Yes. The player linker thingy majigger didn’t parse that 2nd “n” or Dave accidentally originally typed “Zimmerman” then went back and added the 2nd “n” after it already linked.
Seems fine to me
Yep, checks out.
Tom Boswell had anonymously sourced the Nats last offer to Zimmermann in the 2013-14 off season as being for $123MM without giving the length. That would have bought out the two final years of arb plus ??? years of free agency. If Boz is right, JZ ended up with an extra $11MM. Assuming the Nats offer bought out 5 years of FA, that’s $2MM extra a year by declining the offer.
The Boswell number came out in a chat on the WaPo this summer, I think. I don’t recall any offer that high being rumored at before the 2014 season.
This seems eminently reasonable for all parties involved.
DAMMIT, I WANT SOMETHING TO COMPLAIN ABOUT!
If the Nats didn’t make an offer at least this high, I’ll be pretty annoyed. Alternatively, they’re about to give that money to Stras. Or Harper. Basically, this is a very reasonable deal, and if the Nats didn’t offer him this much (although maybe they did and he just wanted to be closer to home) than they better be giving that money to someone else
For $110 mil, the Gnats could sign Samardzija and trade for Jose Fernandez. You’re crazy to suggest you’d prefer Zimmermann over Samardzija and Jose Fernandez. What a world!
First, no one said that.
Second, Fernandez won’t just cost money. He’ll cost plenty in terms of talent as well.
And I know that was a troll post, but also there’s no way the Nats will ever trade for a starter who’s had TJ (at least not while Rizzo is GM)
The Nationals aren’t going to “give that money” to Harper, unless you mean in arbitration, because when he becomes a free agent there will only be two teams realistically bidding on him as no one else would be able to give out the kind of unprecedented contract he’ll command.
Strasburg on the other hand, will be interesting to see if he has a future in DC. One of the criticisms of the Scherzer deal is that it could prevent them from keeping Stras, although at this point it could be argued choosing Scherzer over Stras long term was smart.
Unless they give Harper an extension with an opt-out, like the Giancarlo deal plus 100 mil or so. Any yeah Boras free agency blah blah blah, he just had Wieters accept a QO so anything is possible
Good point with Wieters, but I really don’t think there’s any chance of Harper delaying his FA. He and Boras are looking at this as the next great moment in MLB player contract history and he’s not gonna forgo the opportunity to be a 25 y/o superstar on the open market, at which point LAD and NYY are in a tier above everyone else in being able to give that contract out.
Nats should be looking at this as a 3 year window to build a winner around a HoF talent, and yes Jordan Zimmerman would have helped that. Makes you think that Washington, with the best info on him, don’t think he’s worth an apparent discount
Why on earth is this still being assumed? Two years ago you calculated the cost per win in free agency at just over $6 million ( http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/an-early-look-at-the-price-of-a-win-this-off-season/ ) and then a year ago you calculated the cost per win at $7 million. You apply 5% inflation to future seasons when discussing these contracts, but your cost per win estimates have risen by almost 15% each of the last two years.
The 5% inflation assumption is just that, an assumption: one that is subject to revision once new information comes to light. We have a better idea of what a win in ’15-’16 will be worth in ’15-’16 than we did a couple years ago. Not sure what’s so hard to comprehend about that.
Owen S, evidently I didn’t explain the issue very well. Two years Dave actually calculated the cost per win after the fact based on what contracts were signed. The $7 million estimate last year and the $8 million estimate this year are his own ideas, not calculations made after analyzing signed contracts. That’s why Dave ended up thinking that most free agent contracts last off-season were good deals for the teams, because those figures were coming in lower than his own cost per win estimate. Increasing that by yet another million this off-season is exacerbating the issue.
Well, it’s a little hard to calculate the 2016 costs yet… Seeing as most FA haven’t signed… And those costs are calculated once we have enough signings for a decent sample size…
Sure, but the point is that Dave’s estimation of cost per win has risen by $1 million each of the last three years. That’s too aggressive.
This is a steal.
5 years for a pitcher still in his prime for a total of 110 million.
I want Avila to grow a long mustache so he can laugh like a villain and twirl his mustache.
So at $7 million per WAR,
Avila is banking on about 15 WAR over the next 5 years for a pitcher just barely past his prime who posted 18 WAR over the past five.
Fairly safe bet.
A good signing in the abstract, but the Tigers are going to need to add a lot more payroll if they want to look like serious contenders in 2016. And without more help coming up from the farm, it’s going to be hard to sustain any success they do find. By 2017, if not next season, that core is going to be crazy expensive, very old, and likely in serious decline.
They have about ~49 million in spending this off season, to get to where the payroll started last year, so I would imagine there’s more FAs on the way. Whether it’s enough to jam open the window again is anyone’s guess.
I don’t think this is right. They are at about $146 in committed salary now (Cot’s current total plus $22M for Zimmerman). Add in arb-eligible players (excluding Neftali Feliz) and they are at about $158M. That’s only $15M lower than what Cot’s shows as the 2015 opening day payroll. Even filling out the remainder of their active roster at league minimum would eat up about half that $15M.
They are either going to increase payroll significantly (likely getting into luxury tax territory) or are done signing big pieces.
Agreed Ernie. They’re in a bit of a no man’s land: a little too talented to tear it all down and start over (especially in a division without a juggernaut heading into 2016) but a rapidly aging core without much help on the way from the farm.
Given your comment in the land mines piece about the shelf-life of TJ-repaired arms there is certainly risk. It will be interestingto see if Stras has to take a similar discount next year.
One reason the Nats had decided to let both Zimmermann and next year Strasburg walk is that, according to the Washington Post, they had analysts in the front office who had determined that approximately five years after TJ surgery starters start to show signficant decline and/or an increase in injuries.
Also according to WAPO, Zimmermann had expressed a desire to play for a team closer to his home in Wisconsin and that had played a role in his deciding to decline the contract extension offered by the Nats.
If this was indeed a major factor in his signing with the Tigers for a price others have deemed to be a bargain, then perhaps Cueto and his agents shouldn’t be too concerned.
Sometimes personal considerations do play a role in decisions that are normally determined by dollar figures. Zimmermann wanted to be closer to his home. For Cueto and the other free agent pitchers this isn’t likely to be a major factor in their decisions.
Google seems to be failing me, do you have a link to the article?
I googled “washington post tj surgery 5 years” and the first hit is the article below. That might be what Vil is talking about, although the article mentions 8 years rather than 5 years.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/nationals/fear-of-second-elbow-surgery-may-lead-to-zimmerman-strasburg-departures/2015/03/29/80367f62-d646-11e4-8103-fa84725dbf9d_story.html
I saw that one, but hell every pitcher is likely to fall off eight years from now. Thanks.
Except Steamer is projecting 2.5 wins for 2016, which takes 5 wins off that 5 year total. At $8M a win, a better deal would be $60M over 5 years.
Even better, $2 million over 4 years! Why not pay him the minimum?!?
That was never going to happen. Every team in baseball would sign that contract. JA Happ got $12million per for 3 years. I think you might be living in 2005 or so….
Hey Jim, how are things?