Where Chris Archer and Max Scherzer Were Opposites
Late last week, I published an article about Kevin Kiermaier, calling him further underrated because he’s faced an abnormally tough schedule of opposing pitchers. On the other side of things, Jorge Soler is coming off a year in which he faced one of the easiest opposing slates in recent history. This doesn’t lead to anything conclusively — worse pitchers can throw great pitches, and great pitchers can make mistakes. But what’s suggested is that Kiermaier’s true talent is higher than his numbers, while Soler probably had his 2016 stats inflated. This is an adjustment we so infrequently discuss.
If I’m going to point to hitters and their strengths of schedule, it only makes sense to look at pitchers, too. So I did that for a number of pitchers in 2016, guided by this Baseball Prospectus list. I didn’t calculate numbers for every pitcher, but I examined many pitchers at either end of the BP list. All I did was calculate the average 2016 wRC+ posted by the pitchers’ opponents. The higher the number, the tougher the average opponent. The league-average wRC+ last season, with pitchers included, was 97.
Pitchers with easier schedules
- Jacob deGrom, 89 wRC+ average opponent
- Max Scherzer, 90
- Anthony DeSclafani, 90
- Jon Lester, 90
- Tyler Chatwood, 90
- Tyler Anderson, 90
For the most part, I just wanted to look at pitchers who threw at least 100 innings. But for some smaller-sample fun, J.P. Howell’s average opponent managed just an 84 wRC+, while Matt Harvey wound up at 85. That makes Harvey’s season look only worse, although he had a pretty good reason for that.
Pitchers with tougher schedules
- Kendall Graveman, 104 wRC+ average opponent
- Chris Archer, 104
- Matt Andriese, 104
- Dylan Bundy, 103
- Kevin Gausman, 103
- Michael Pineda, 103
The gaps might not seem that big to you, I don’t really know. But for whatever it’s worth, Todd Frazier just had a 102 wRC+, and Adonis Garcia finished at 90. Steamer projects Mike Napoli for a 103 wRC+, with Kevin Pillar at 90. Imagine the difference between a full season facing lineups of Napolis and lineups of Pillars. Mathematically, it would work out to double-digit runs, so just remember this the next time you’re, say, recalling some pitching numbers from the 2016 American League East. Not every schedule is created the same, and you better believe certain pitchers can feel it.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
Love the discussion of SoS. It’s frankly some low-hanging fruit that no one in baseball seems to want to take.
Are you looking at actual batters’ faced, or rather team averages? If the former, is it the batter’s wRC+ at the point in time, or his wRC+ for the entire season?
Actual, and entire season. Seems like a safe way to go, although I do see the potential merit in wRC+ at the time. Although, then, what do you do about matchups in like April or May?