Why the Tigers Shouldn’t Sell, in One Graph
Last night, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale made some pretty big waves with his report that the Tigers are preparing to become sellers, making David Price and Yoenis Cespedes available to teams looking to upgrade their rosters for the stretch run.
It’s going to be awfully painful, and the Detroit Tigers sure hate to do this, but for the good of the organization, they simply have no choice.
The Tigers, barring a veto from owner Mike Ilitch, are going to surrender and be sellers within the next 10 days at the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline.
For the first time since 2008, the Tigers have no choice but to inform teams that two of their marquee commodities will be dealt by the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline.
That’s some pretty strong language, and given that “they simply have no choice”, you’d think the Tigers were in the midst of a total meltdown, or had squandered any chance they had of reaching the postseason. But while Nightengale may be right in his reporting, his editorializing isn’t really all that rooted in factual basis. Consider, for instance this graph of the projected final standings in the American League, based on our depth charts forecasts.
The Royals, Yankees, and Angels have put themselves in strong positions to win their divisions, and the Astros remain the most likely Wild Card team, with a real shot at the AL West themselves. Those four teams are each more likely to make the postseason than not.
But look at the drop-off after Houston. The Blue Jays, Twins, Orioles, and Indians are in a virtual tie with the Tigers for fifth place, with none of them expected to finish with more than 82 wins. Someone will break out from the pack and likely win 85-87 games and capture that second Wild Card spot, but the Tigers are just as likely to be that team as any of the other four, and in no way are they in a position where 2015 is a total write-off. In fact, the Tigers have better odds now than the 1997 White Sox did when they initiated the infamous White Flag Trade.
The Tigers should probably be listening mode, as it’s possible a team will make them an offer that justifies giving up their estimated 26.5% playoff odds; if you can flip Price for a guy who can step right in to the big leagues and is under control for next year as well — similar to last year’s Jon Lester for Yoenis Cespedes trade — then it could be worth downgrading this year’s chances to upgrade next year’s shot. I wouldn’t say that the Tigers odds are so strong that they shouldn’t even consider moving Price or Cespedes.
But I just don’t see how we can look at the landscape in the American League and determine that the Tigers have to move Price and Cespedes for whatever they can get. The Tigers season is far from over, and there are plenty of reasons to keep this group together and try to make a run. If someone makes a crazy offer that you just can’t turn down, okay, but the Tigers shouldn’t be throwing away legitimate playoff odds just because they aren’t as good as they’re used to.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Tigers, as is, aren’t a playoff team. They need more pitching. Now they could be buyers, but do they have the farm for it? Not likely. Do they/are they capable of re-signing Price and Cespedes? Maybe, that’s something only they know. But if they can’t, they might as well rebuild their farm by moving two guys they’re gonna lose and call it a day.
There aren’t five traditional “Playoff Teams” in the American League this year. The definition of a “Playoff team” isn’t based on some static measure of quality; it’s based on finishing with more wins than all but four other teams in your league in a given year. The Blue Jays, Orioles, Indians, and Twins would all fail this nebulous “Playoff Team” test too.
What are the tigers going to do in the post season with two serviable pitchers? Who knows what Lobstien is going to look like, if he even comes back?
Not to mention what are the tigers going to give up to get at least one more pitcher? Our minor teams have been gutted the last couple of years, and we need just about every starter we have.
That’s not even touching on what a dumpster fire the bullpen has looked like.
“What are the tigers going to do in the post season with two serviable pitchers?”
That’s a far better problem to have than not making the postseason at all.
The above graph assumes that both the Blue Jays and Orioles don’t acquire any players, which I find unlikely. Sure, if all teams hold tight, then the Tigers should not sell. If the Orioles end up with Upton+, and the Blue Jays find some pitching, that would inch them ahead of the Tigers.
Why can’t the Tigers upgrade too? Their records are all very similar at the moment.
That’s possible, but the Tigers don’t have as many young assets that they can move.
Ha, as said every year before DD makes a trade. DD is so good at trades he’ll just use some other teams players.
Ya! He’s so good at trading he even got Steve Lombardozzi for Doug Fister!
Ya! You mean the same Doug Fister who has put up a whopping 1.5 WAR in 233 IP since he was traded to WAS? It’s called selling high. Yeah, he could’ve gotten more, but he liked Robbie Ray (Lombardozzi was a throw in, jackass). And what did DD give up to get Fister for those 2.5 years when he was actually good? Perennial all-stars Casper Wells and Charlie Furbush! He made a decent trade for some dudes named Cabrera and Scherzer too…
Fister has 4.5 bWAR and 4.4 RA9-WAR since the trade.
Let’s not just use the version of WAR that best suits our arguments.
Your projection system is obviously flawed though. This is the same projection system that did not have the Royals or Astros anywhere near the top of their division.
Open your eyes – Detroit is not a good baseball team this season.
Did any projection system (or expert for that matter) expect the Astros to be where they are right now?
Projection systems aren’t perfect, but they are better than your “eye test”.
Astros had a great run and might of peaked too early as they are 3-7 in their last 10. Of course they could stop the decline via trade or without a trade. However, I am of the opinion they were overachievers where as the Tigers have underachieved.
Cmon Dave. The model was wrong once, hence it is useless and should be completely disregarded.
The projections don’t say Detroit is a good baseball team. The projections say Detroit is mediocre, and so are the rest of the 2nd WC contenders.
exactly. Some added pitcing would make us stand out.
If you use the coin flip standings the Tigers chances of getting into the wild card game barley moves. This is not about projections as much as relative place in the standings at this point of the season. That the projections still to not buy into the Twins only helps a little.
Nowhere does it say Detroit is a good baseball team. It says that, because of the mediocrity in the AL, the Tigers have a decent chance to make the playoffs.
Saying that a projection system is flawed because 1 of its projections doesn’t fit your preconceived notions is like saying that Pete Kozma is a good hitter because I saw him hit a homer once.
Projections right on any of the AL Central? How ’bout them Indians and White Sox 🙂
Three fair deals they should make if offered:
1. Price and Cespedes for Puig.
2. Price and Cespedes for Hamels (3rd team involved gets Price).
3. Price, Cespedes, Soria, Davis, Avila and Verlander for just ONE prospect. Couple assets with liabilities in one deal.
Sorry… 3rd team gets BOTH Price and Cespedes. Tigers do not give up any prospects to get Hamels.
lol
He’s right. Detroit should take any of those offers if anyone is stupid enough to make the offer.
Actually the 3 team price and cespedes for hamels with Phillies getting prospects is fine. Complex and un unlikely as you’d need to get a contender involved but certainly a good idea. Swapping price out and getting hamels back is precisely the type of move they should be looking to get done.
Dave and others have advocated previously on this website that teams that are gambling on possibly making it to the 1-game playoff by trading key future assets are acting foolishly and they need to realize making the playoffs isn’t the same as it used to be (which makes the 97 White Sox comparison less relevant). I don’t see how there is really a difference between the two. The Tigers are looking at a pretty bleak future, with commitments to a lot of players that are going to start looking like negative assets. I don’t see how refraining from trading these guys is any different than another team in the same position trading prospects for rentals. In either situation, you are looking at either having a very short term asset or a longer term asset. Aside from the small advantage of getting a comp pick, there is really no difference between the two situations, yet the advice here seems to be the opposite.
I think the headline gets it wrong but the article gets it right. The Tigers still have a realistic chance of a WC run so the price to acquire Price or there other free agents to be ought to still factor that in. They should of course go either way based on the deals presented to them.
Dave’s issue with the article is not that they’re considering trading away assets – I think he’d argue that every team should always be listening to trades and considering selling at the right price given they’re playoff likelihood.
The issue is that Nightengale implies that the Tigers are in full sell-all mode, and that they “simply have no choice”. Nothing is a binary full-buy or full-sell choice and any FO thinking that way is straight dumb
I see that a little more now. The article title should really be “Why the Tigers Shouldn’t Desperately Sell, in One Graph.”
or Door #3: The Tigs are feeding Nightengale a story to send a message to one or more of a) the players to get them motivated, b) the fans, to reduce expectations, or c) other teams, to elicit just the sort of Lester/Cespedes type deal Dave advocates at the end of the article.
I’m not sure how “Hey guys, we’re going to punt the season and start trading some of you away” is going to motivate anyone.
Because it can be interpreted as “Crap, if we don’t start winning more games we’re going to get traded away!”
I mean as motivational ploys go, fear is usually shit, but it’s possible the DET FO thinks it’s the only thing they’ve got left.
Or maybe the players in question think, “hell yeah, I hope they trade me to a stronger contender!”
Anyone who says Detroit doesn’t have a good team is mistaken. Our offense is one of the best in the league including being streaky. You cannot simply ignore the offensive #’s.
How about being more specific and say, our pitching sucks outside of Price and perhaps Sanchez.
I don’t recall the Giants having perfect pitching outside of Bumgarner last year.
All in all, if the Tigers decided to be buyers, a starter and a bullpen piece would be all that is needed.
Bullpen piece? Who is this magical fireman who can pitch two innings every single day?
You sir, need more than just one piece.
I think we just need one more piece to replace Rondon and maybe a lefty as I am not a Krol fan.
Soria, Feliz, Hardy, Wilson, AlAl, 1 or 2 more.
Why would you want to replace Rondon? He has one of the highest ceilings of any reliever on the team. Ignore his ERA right now, the dude has had horrid BABIP luck.
Here is the pessimist’s argument for the Tigers buying. The Tigers with Price and Yo are average, next year without Price and Yo they will be way below avg. If they trade Price and Yo it will be for lesser players with more years of control, leaving the Tigers still below avg. The best hope for a championship in the next 3 years or so is this year (unless some contender overpays). I would rather the Tigers try for the playoffs in 2015 and loss 70 games in 16-17, then give up on 2015 to win 75 games 16 17.
If they trade or let Price go, they have to sign a FA or get back a decent starter via trade. Otherwise they are going to be in bad shape next year.
They are going to lose them after the season and this pitching staff is no playoff staff, maybe, and maybe if the traded what little prospects thay they have for Cueto and Chapman and then still just a maybe.
I think they should trade JD too and stockpile draftpicks and rebuild and do it the Cards way, which means the cupboards are always full.
Always better to do this a year to early as opposed to a year to late.
Kinsler(old), JD(Prime), Miggy(Beast-still), Price(Brinks truck), Yeonis(more picks)
they could LOAD UP on procpects and players if they cleaned house…Most of these guys are on the wrong side of their prime years so do it now!!!
Why do people keep saying trade JD? JD is a young cost controlled player, and is basically what you hope to get but rarely achieve with prospects. There’s no sense trading what you want your prospects to become in the first place.
For those wondering if DET should buy or sell…..
The Tigers are .500 right now and will not have Miggy for at least 30 days, maybe 45 and then you have to assume he’s going to be 100% Miggy, which is a bit of a leap. If you recall the first couple of months coming off that groin injury he couldn’t catch up to a fastball and was rather weak by his standards until he stopped favoring it.
Miggy went down July 3rd. Since then, the Tigers are 5-6. Right now, there are a slew of teams around .500. LAA, NYY and KC are out in front y a fair distance. MIN and HOU are around 8 games over .500 and everyone is chasing those 2. Its probably a safe assumption that SOMEONE out of the .500 batch is gonna get hot, so the Tigers need to at least finish 16 games over .500. I went back and looked at the last time someone finished with the 2nd best record in the AL and didn’t win the division and had less than 16 games over .500. You have to go all the way back to 2007 (Detroit) who finished at 88-74 (14 games over) and that was before they had 2 wild cards.
The Tigs are at 46-46 right now. To finish 16 games over, they have to end up at 89-73. That means they have to go 43-27! That’s a (.614!) pace! Only StL (.630) has exceeded that pace up to this point. Essentially, the Tigers have to be the best team in the AL from now until the end of the season. Do you see that? WITHOUT Miggy? You need Price, Anibal and JV to win 90% of their starts and hope the disaster on the back end at least holds their own and then the bullpen suddenly gets solid. I mean seriously. The Tigers need 2 starters and 2 bullpen arms AT LEAST to be the BEST team in the AL and hope Miggy comes back 100% in Mid-August. Does DET have enough to trade for FOUR arms? They may not have enough to trade for ONE arm!
The reality is its over. They are in prime position to sell with all the rentals they have right now and Miggy on the shelf and the Simon/Greene train in the ravine. I’d love to see another playoff run, but the pitching gamble busted and DD has NEVER EVER EVER been good at putting together a solid bullpen through trades, free agents or hope. So, its time to sell. R.I.P. Tigers
Why the fuck do you think they need to win 89 games to make the playoffs? Did you even bother to look at this graph or are you just going with the “make up random shit” route instead?
Um “… I went back and looked at the last time someone finished with the 2nd best record in the AL and didn’t win the division and had less than 16 games over .500. You have to go all the way back to 2007 (Detroit) who finished at 88-74 (14 games over) and that was before they had 2 wild cards.”
8 years of running history? Is this the year of the 83 win 2nd WC? Dunno. The Tigers don’t have trade chips and trying to make a run at a 2nd WC is foolish. WC should be a fall back option, not a goal. This is their chance to restock and extend the playoff window a couple more years. They have a lot of guys walking after this year.
As one of the more optimistic Tigers fans, this offense is still so good and so capable.
But the Tigers starting pitching and bullpen woes will take them out of contention. This is where Scherzer is missed. Those consecutive 20+ win seasons are sorely missed. If we had at least one more dependable starter, the question to buy or sell wouldnt even be asked.
BUT, this is a blessing in disguise because the Tigers really need to regroup and get some controllable talent via their big names. Better to do some regrouping now than completely fall apart in the next few years.
Nice piece. I know a lot of Tiger fans want them to sell, and honestly, my head tells me they should. But there is a good case that can be made to not sell. But my problem is, that as constructed, this Tiger team will be lucky to make the playoffs, and if they do, likely won’t go far. So they need to buy, at least one starter and a bullpen arm. They can limp forward with Simon or Greene in the 5th spot, but not both in the rotation. Simon could help the pen, but one more reliable arm for the 8th inning would really help. Not just in making the playoffs, but making noise there. The big question is, do they have the chips to make those moves? If they don’t they should sell and get better for next year. If they do, then go for it. Because if they can make those upgrades and make the playoffs, they would have as good a chance as any team to win the World Series.
A Pitcher won’t fix what’s wrong with this club, this team isn’t deep enough to be a world series team and anything less is a waste of time. Bad as it may hurt, it’s time to blow it up. Trade as many bad contracts and and free agents as possible, even if you have to give up a few decent players to do it, dismantle this club now for prospects. Then try to buy a team this winter.
Let’s say that TOR, TB, BAL, MIN, DET, CLE, HOU, and LAA all tie with the same record at the end of the year. Then what? Because I’m rooting for some batshit crazy tiebreaker at the end of the year.