Yankees Land Sonny Gray; A’s Get Serious Upside
The Yankees needed a starting pitcher, even after acquiring Jaime Garcia. They particularly could use some long-term rotation depth, and had prioritized landing a guy who wasn’t just a rental. After missing out on Jose Quintana, there was only one real option left, and that was Sonny Gray.
The A’s, in full rebuild mode, couldn’t really afford to take the risk of Gray getting hurt again. They already saw him lose value with last year’s arm problems, and moving him now while he’s pitching well was the right thing to do, even in a buyer’s market. Their asking price seemingly scared away every team but the Yankees, which left both buyer and seller with just one option; send Sonny Gray to New York.
And now, after endless rumors of stalls and traction, it appears like it’s finally happening.
Source: Sonny Gray will be traded to the Yankees.
— JackCurryYES (@JackCurryYES) July 31, 2017
Source: Gray to Yankees done. Fowler, Mateo, Kaprelian coming back.
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Below, a quick overview of the trade details. We’ll do a more thorough write-up on what Gray means for the Yankees and what this return does for the A’s in a little bit.
| Player | Position | Age | 2017 WAR | Rest of Season WAR | Contract |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sonny Gray | SP | 27 | 2.2 | 1.1 | Arbitration through 2019 |
And here’s what Eric wrote about the three guys going to Oakland in his pre-season Yankees write-up. Both Fowler and Kaprielian have sustained season-ending injuries this year, with Kaprielian underoing Tommy John surgery that will knock him out for a good chunk of next year as well. But there’s a lot of upside here for the A’s, and this package looks far better than the rumored packages this morning.
| Age | 23 | Height | 6’4 | Weight | 200 | Bat/Throw | R/R |
|---|
| Fastball | Slider | Curveball | Changeup | Command |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60/60 | 55/60 | 45/50 | 55/60 | 45/50 |
Relevant/Interesting Metrics
None. Missed most of season with injury.
Scouting Report
At UCLA, Kaprielian sat 89-94 with a four-pitch mix that consisted of an average curveball, cutter-like slider, and an above-average changeup that Kaprielian could run back on the outer half of the plate against righties. The Yankees selected him in the middle of the 2015 draft’s first round.
Kaprielian’s first full pro season got off to a roaring start. His fastball was sitting in the mid-to-upper 90s all of a sudden and he blew away High-A hitters for three starts following a promotion to that level. Then he was shut down for the remainder of the season with a flexor-tendon strain. He picked up some innings in the Arizona Fall League, though, where was 94-97 in his first start, then back down in the 92-93 range in a later start before his velo resurged in Novemeber and he was touching 99. Over multiple looks throughout the course of the AFL, his fastball averaged 95 mph for me, a 70 on the scouting scale if you assume Kaprielian would be able to maintain that velocity over an entire season. I’m skeptical.
All of Kaprielian’s secondaries play up because of his deceptive delivery and because they all look the same as they approach the plate before darting in subtly different directions. His slider sits 85-87 and will touch 90 with short, cutter-like action. It’s oft used. The curveball is mostly 82-85 with a bit more downward depth, and he has the same above-average changeup he had in college and that he cuts at times.
Conservatively, there’s a chance for three plus pitches, a viable fourth weapon in the curveball and average control/command. That’s approaching a top-of-the-rotation arm. If the fastball velocity we saw throughout the Fall League is sustainable, and I’m light on the fastball grade, then we’re there. Kaprielian’s being babied along this spring but has a chance to crack New York’s rotation this year provided, of course, he can stay healthy.
| Age | 22 | Height | 6’0 | Weight | 188 | Bat/Throw | R/R |
|---|
| Hit | Raw Power | Game Power | Run | Fielding | Throw |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35/50 | 45/50 | 30/40 | 80/80 | 40/50 | 55/55 |
Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Slashed .254/.306/.379 at High-A.
Scouting Report
Mateo was a relatively unheralded signing from January of 2012, inking a $250,000 bonus. By 2014, he had grown an inch, added 20 pounds and started dominating the lowest levels of the minors. His skills have more or less tracked as expected since then. He remains an 80 runner, one of the fastest prospects in baseball, routinely reaching first in 4 seconds or less. While neither Mateo’s first step nor lateral range at shortstop are as superlative as his straight-line speed, he’s fine there and has the requisite arm strength, athleticism, footwork and actions to be an average defender at shortstop.
Of course, Gleyber Torres’ presence in the organization complicates Mateo’s defensive future, and he began playing second base last year. Scouts have varying opinions on who fits best at short. Mateo’s actions aren’t as flashy and sexy as Torres’s, but he’s twitchier and has a better first step. Others prefer Torres’s bigger, stronger body at short, which carries a heavier physical burden than second base does. And others just want to see Mateo run around in center field, where he played a bit during the fall, simply because they speculatively believe he could be an elite defender there with reps. Of all the recent speedy shortstop/center-field prospects (Roman Quinn and Billy Hamilton to name two), Mateo has the most viable combination of arm strength and infield actions. I have him graded out at shortstop as a future 50 for now (just because projecting him at either second or center right now is comparatively abstract, and Dustin Fowler is a factor in this conversation, as well) but obviously where he ends up on the defensive spectrum will be a significant determining variable for his ultimate value. Big-league shortstops and center fielders hit about .260/.320/.407 last year, second baseman hit .270/.330/.425. One of those is within reasonable reach for Mateo and the other might be a bit much.
Mateo’s stride-less swing is simple, and he avoids excessive strikeouts despite a lengthy bat path and aggressive, expansive approach. He has decent bat control and hand-eye coordination and projects as an average hitter whose average and on-base percentage might be inflated by his blazing speed. He still has some physical projection remaining and should have average raw power at peak, though the current iteration of his swing is unlikely to yield better than 40 power in games. That’s a potential above-average player at shortstop but closer to the fringes at second base. In center field, well, it depends on the quality of his defense there. There are several possible outcomes here, and they generally point to Mateo being a good everyday player.
KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 3.8 WAR
| Age | 22 | Height | 6’0 | Weight | 185 | Bat/Throw | L/L |
|---|
| Hit | Raw Power | Game Power | Run | Fielding | Throw |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50/60 | 50/50 | 35/40 | 60/60 | 50/55 | 45/45 |
Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Slashed .281/.311/.458 at Double-A in 2016.
Scouting Report
Fowler developed a bit of a tweener reputation in 2015 (as he was breaking out) because he didn’t hit for power in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League, his first full, healthy season as a pro. In 2016, Fowler got out of Tampa and mashed at Trenton, tallying 56 extra-base hits and 25 steals during an injury-free year. He’s a plus runner and already average in center field, though he could be above with reps.
While he’ll occasionally pepper the opposite-field gap, Fowler is largely an up-the-middle and pull hitter and indeed much of the extra-base damage he does is to his pull side, down the line. He has average raw power but projects to run into around 12-15 homers annually with lots of doubles. He tracks pitches well, has good bat speed and projects as a plus hitter. Even with an aggressive approach that might hinder his ability to reach base, a 60 bat with 40 power plays in center field, where any kind of power is at a premium. I consider him a high-probability average everyday big leaguer.
KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 5.1 WAR
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
I think this is a great trade for NY. Very good controllable arm for good yet not elite prospects. They still have a very good farm, so the future looks bright.
I like Oakland’s side a lot as well. They are taking on quite a bit of risk, as it’s not a given that any particular pitcher will recover from Tommy John while Fowler’s patellar tendon is much scarier historically among athletes than an ACL, but given the nature of the organization I think the A’s are correct to go for upside. Mateo also has a clearer path, whether he sticks at short or moves to center.
Seems like a smart deal for both teams. The Yanks’ system is stacked and they gave away 3 prospects with upside, but hung onto their best. The A’s cashed in Gray while his value has risen. Any or all 3 of these guys could work out nicely for them.
It should be said that Beane would have been criticized ever since he was convinced to downgrade from Frazier/Torres. He really should’ve gotten one of those guys.
2.35 years of Gray isn’t enough for Gleyber, and if I’m choosing between Frazier or the combination of Kaprielian/Mateo/Fowler then I’m taking the latter.
Even with the whole “108 year without a World Series” premium, it’s tough to argue that Torres was worth two months of Chapman but not two months and two years of Gray.
2017 deadline Torres is not 2016 deadline Torres, though.
Kid’s stock took a massive leap after he tore up the AFL, then kept it going in AA and AAA this year.
He was at #27 on BA’s July 2016 list. He’s #3 on this year’s.
I’m not certain how to parse the importance of Chapman’s being a Top 3 reliever while Gray’s in the 15-30 range as a starter, but we shouldn’t ignore it, either. It’s likely why there was more competition for Chapman at last year’s deadline.
And, as you mentioned, there was the drought.
So…yeah. Drastically different situations, for a bunch of reasons.
cubs also have baez and russell which probably made torres more expendable in the 108th year.
Didn’t pretty much everyone say at the time that Torres was a massive overpay for Chapman? And his stock has only increased since then.
Yeah, it was widely viewed as a heist by the Yanks…but Theo didn’t really care about losing his $/WAR rings.
I would have taken Frazier and some lower-level prospects over two seriously injured prospects and Mateo. Hard to find guys like Frazier.
Yes. That is why Frazier wasn’t available.
Frazier plus a 45 FV reclamation project is probably the equivalent package to what the Yankees got for Chapman, but Gray sucked last season, the A’s don’t have several suitors, and this package may actually have more overall value.
In Eric Longenhagen’s preseason top 100, Frazier (#34) was much closer to Kaprielian (#43) than Torres (#7). Obviously Kaprielian had a major injury since then, but my point is that Frazier should absolutely not be considered in the same prospect tier as Torres. Clint is a guy with contact issues as a result of his overly muscular physique and loopy swing who doesn’t possess plus defensive or base running value.
Again…we’re not talking about post-AFL Torres, here.
Or, for that matter, pre-success in AAA and the MLB Frazier.
When the Yankees got Torres last year, BA had him at #27, BP had him at #34 and MLB.com had him at #17, all as a 55 FV.
MLB.com currently has Frazier at #27 and BA had him at #49 on their midseason list, also as a 55 FV (both rankings also occurred before his month of being an above average hitter in the MLB).
Remember — This time last year, some Yankees fans were kvetching that they had picked Torres over Jimenez.
I think you mean to say a buyer’s market in the second paragraph, Dave.
Edit: Also, team instead of time. Bad day, Dave?
Warranted humble pie. I accept my punishment.
Any speculation on when Gray gets his first pinstripes start?
He was scheduled to start on Sunday and it was pushed back to Monday. So I am guessing as soon as he can catch up to the team they’ll throw him on the bump.
This is a smart deal and not the best if you want to frame this trade as a win-now for both teams, which is unwise.
Yanks know what they get with Gray. He’s controlled and provides the final piece to the top of the Yanks rotation (Sevy, Tanaka, Gray). Gray fits the mold of the “win now and beyond” plan the Yankees are running. Question is where does Garcia play? Garcia can be the long-man and make spot starts to help with (hard or soft) innings cap for Sevy and Monty. Let’s not forget Monty has struggled in July, so it’s uncertain if he sticks.
A’s get great value but tons of risk. I hate how much risk Beane likes to attain. Fowler is MLB ready and will return in ’18. Kap is a huge question mark but no doubt he has frontline starter upside. Mateo has been hitting the ball well in Double A and could easily get the call up in ’18.
Very surprised A’s didn’t get Florial but oh well. Smart deal for both sides and don’t let Yankees fans tell you this was a “fleece”. Hardly so.
I like the trade, but the history of patellar tendon tears for professional athletes is pretty scary. Not many guys ever get back to 100% of what they were before the injury.
I think I read somewhere that he was diagnosed and “fixed” in the right amount of time for it to not have such a deep impact. I could be wrong though
I’m certainly no expert and most of my research into patella repairs dealt with football players rather than baseball players, but I’ve never heard of the timeline being an issue. It’s simply a more severe long-term injury than other knee ligament tears.
It’s definitely a bad injury, but Fowler still has CF speed if he loses a step.
Source?
Honestly can’t remember. Take what I said very lightly or ignore it completely
Not sure getting great value with tons of risk is a good thing in general, I know it’s not a good thing when it’s in return for an outstanding cost controlled starting pitcher, especially when you tack on $1.5M in int pool spending money. The Yankees assumed zero risk in this deal, dealt away guys with no real place in the org, and cemented themselves as a WS contender for this and the next two seasons.
This was a no-brainer deal for the Yankees as they took the A’s out back to the woodshed.
“Zero risk?” Gray’s 2016?
“Yanks know what they get with Gray.”
Well I don’t know I’d go too far with that. Gray has had his ups and downs, even on top of being a pitcher.
Not sure I agree with this. From 2013-2015, I don’t think anyone would argue that he was short of being an elite SP in all of baseball. He finished 3rd in the Cy Young voting in 2015, and had a combined 2.88 ERA and 3.06 FIP over 491 IP, with both full seasons eclipsing 200 IPs. He dealt with injuries last year, which is really the only blemish on his resume. I would also argue playing in front of the worst defense in the league is at least partially responsible for his “ups and downs” in the past season and a half. Vogt simply couldn’t block his breaking ball and it was a real issue for him. Without those issues in NY, he’ll be great like he was in Oakland.
This is a fleece. The Rangers arguably got more for a pure rental, and Oakland didn’t just fail to get an elite prospect like Torres or Frazier, they also failed to get any prospects in the next rung under Torres/Frazier – Florial, Adams or Sheffield.
Fowler and Mateo are very much in the same tier as Florial, and they took an upside play in Kaprielian over Adams and Sheffield.
Good trade for both teams. I might have pressed for Adams over Kaprielian to ameliorate the risk…but Gray’s also more of a high-end #2 starter than a true “ace,” in industry parlance.
I’ve been keeping a close eye on Adams and he’s a tad bit overrated. Strikes out guys but walks quite a bit too in Triple A which doesn’t bode well. He’ll give up a good share of home runs. He’s more MLB ready but since Beane got his MLB ready piece in Fowler, running the great risk/value with Kap is right.
An MLB-ready piece…who’s very raw and coming back from a patellar tendon tear.
I love Fowler, but any perceived lack of risk in his profile is only relative to Kaprielian and Mateo, haha.
If anything, this seems like a fair trade to me. I was excited for Kap, hope he and the others do well in Oakland.
Love Fowler, too.
Wouldn’t be surprised if he turns into something similar to Lorenzo Cain with fewer steals and good rather than transcendent defense.
So, a slightly below average regular?
…do you not know how good Cain is?
Or do you not know what “average” means?
A 105 wRC+ with +5 CF Defense and 20 steals is a 3-4 win guy, above average by any standard.
I think I’ll wait to compose my thoughts a bit, but I completely disagree with everyone who says this wasn’t a heist. The Yankees killed it on this trade, and if those really were the best offers I don’t know why Beane didn’t hold on until the offseason.
Thats fair. I’m still processing this one as well but your take seems to be the reaction many Yankee fans I’ve talked to have had. And the reasons to pull the trigger now seem pretty clearly what Dave mentioned above, fear that his value would tank if he had more injury issues; at 27, he’s young but not THAT young, and I think Beane liked the value he got back.
Oh, I’m definitely not a Yankees fan. I’m an anti-fan, if there is such a thing. Which makes me even more annoyed by this trade. But I think Yankees fans should be ecstatic.
Because http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/sonny-gray-is-back-and-he-isnt/
Simple: 2 years of Gray is worth less than 2.5 yrs of Gray (to be fair, guessing there is less demand right now than in the winter)
Also: If Gray gets hurt again this year, then his value is really tanked. If he has a terrible 2 months, that would also hurt his value.
Sure, maybe the A’s could have gotten a marginally better package in the offseason if Gray stayed healthy (and continued pitching above average). Beane likely figured the downside risk was not worth holding on to Gray for a potential package that is only a little bit better than what they wound up with though.
I also think it’s a mistake characterizing this as a heist at this time. Gray is not a slam-dunk guarantee in terms of either performance or health. Heck he had an ERA over 5 just last year, plus he got hurt. Then he was injured again in ST this year and was only okayish / above avg before his recent run of 6 starts when he lowered his ERA from 4.84 to 3.43. xStats had Gray at 7% above avg (by expected wOBA allowed) in May, 4% above avg in June, and now 16% above avg in July.
It is not difficult to envision a scenario where Gray repeats his 2016 #s in the next couple years, in terms of ineffectiveness or missed time. Beane definitely took on a lot of risk, but remember that the Yankees thought highly enough of Fowler to call him up ahead of Frazier. Mateo had his shine wear off considerably until he was called up to AA a month ago and has mashed to a 147 wRC+, and also still possesses 80 speed. And there seems to be little doubt that Kap is at least a mid-rotation arm (if he can stay healthy) with a good possibility that he can be a staff ace and someone as good as say, Sonny Gray.
Personally my first reaction was they gave up too much, but after considering it further, I think it seems pretty fair to both sides. Of course in my mind I was assuming that Fowler and Kap both come back fine from injury. Also apparently talks stalled until the Yanx finally agreed to add Kap as the third piece, so they were fine with giving up Fowler and Mateo.
I think if Fowler and Kaprielian come back from injury, then it seems pretty fair. But that’s a big “if”, and like most prospects we have no idea if a healthy Kaprielian or Mateo will be any good. Kaprelian has basically no professional pitching track record and Mateo’s is “inconsistent.” Fowler is a pretty safe prospect except for the injury, but that is a brutal injury. I don’t think this is going to end well at all for the A’s.
Maybe Beane was nervous hanging onto Gray for longer, but if Gray continued to dominate for the rest of this year no one would be questioning giving up top prospects for him after the season. He’s got a good track record and coming off a dominant year he’d be a very attractive trade piece. So this comes down to whether you believe Gray will keep pitching well (which sounds silly when you say it, but maybe that’s most of it).
It would be even better if Fowler can get more walks
It’s important to remember that Sonny Gray’s career best fWAR is just 3.7. He’s a good pitcher but not a great one. For 2.35 seasons of that, the A’s are getting three risky prospects with considerable upside. Put differently, if Fowler and Kaprielian weren’t injured then there’s no way the A’s get all three of these prospects for Gray.
He’s put up a couple 4+ win seasons by RA9-WAR.
But yeah. Gray’s very good, but not an ace.
I think $1.5M in International Money is a relevant part of the deal to report. If this makes an Otani signing more likely, the deal looks really good.
This is a rancid disaster of a deal for the A’s, the Yankees used them as their dumping ground for their marginal overhyped prospects and now get one of the best big game pitchers in the league who has been an absolute workhorse in his career, save last season. This may make the Donaldson deal look great by comparison. A’s don’t compete again for 5 years after this setback, unless they can offload Manaea for a haul this offseason to compensate for this disaster.
Gray is a real Clydesdale
“Best big game pitchers in the league” What big games has he ptiched in? He has only been to the postseason once – in 2013. He has only thrown 200 innings twice
2013 ALDS game 2:8ip/0r/9ks 1-0 win over verlander
ALDS game 5:5ip/3r/3k loss to verlander.hr by cabrera. that was his rookie season.
2014: complete game shutout of texas to clinch wildcard on last day of season.
then the real “big game” pitcher john lester pitched the next game and that was pretty much the last of such for oakland.
He pitched a good game in the 2013 postseason (followed by a mediocre game) and the 2014 regular season. Cool. Low bar to become one of the best big game pitchers in the league.
“Their marginal overhyped prospects”
Careful with that line, it’s an antique. They rarely produced anyone good for about a decade, but recent Yankees prospects include Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Clint Frazier, Greg Bird, Luis Severino, Jordan Montgomery, Dellin Betances, Chad Green, Nick Goody, and Ben Gamel.
It’s also just a silly way to describe a guy like Fowler, who’s been under-the-radar his whole career.
Jorge Mateo is more interesting now that he’s had some solid results at Double-A. For some reason he’s displaying a completely different profile, but I’m skeptical until he can show that over a full season.
I have to think that Beane was pressured from inside the organization to make this Gray trade. 2 years and ~60 games of a solid cost controlled #2 or better pitcher is worth more than 3 non-elite, high risk prospects, 2 of whom are injured. Not getting a top 50 guy seems like a waste.
billy IS the organization.
I’m pretty disappointed this is what Forst/Beane decided to opt for.
I wish I had more words to describe how underwhelming this feels.
Kinda sad to see Mateo go personally. As a lifelong Yankees fan, I was waiting on him and Gary to get their chances for a long time. Mateo I truly believe can be a special player, Speed don’t slump, but he’s a down to earth guy, and a good person (even chatted with me a few times from the stands in Trenton when all I did was ask how he’s doin!) Yankee fans have been waiting for him to come up for a awhile. Sad to see him go, Best of luck Jorge, go be the next Ricky for Oakland.
That’s like when Red Sox fans kept wondering if Anderson Espinosa would be the next Pedro. There will never be another Rickey, and there will never be another Pedro. (he says as a lonely tear rolls down his cheek)
I don’t love the trade for the Yankees but there’s a fair amount of economic hedging going on here. They may have wanted some roster control and relative cost certainty going in to next year in their rotation, and felt they may have had to spend even bigger for whatever free agent pitchers are on the market. If the Yankees are going to get below the luxury tax threshold, they are going to need to not spend $25M to replace Sabathia, or $32M to replace Sabathia and Pineda.
What were the packages being rumored earlier that this return is clearly superior to? Because I feel like this is a very underwhelming return for 2.5 cheap years of a good young household-name type SP.
underwhelming for sure from an oakland perspective.when it was clear ny was most interested, somehow knew fowler would be in the deal. idk. at least that bum matt holiday wasnt in the deal this time.so thats nice.