Yankees Land Their Jeter Replacement
With Derek Jeter riding off into the sunset, the Yankees needed a shortstop. The Diamondbacks were always somewhat natural trade partners, given the presence of both Didi Gregorius and Chris Owings. With a little assistance from the Detroit Tigers, it sounds like the teams have finally struck a deal.
The reported trade looks something like this:
Yankees trade RHP Shane Greene to Detroit
Tigers trade LHP Robbie Ray and an infielder to Arizona
Diamondbacks trade SS Didi Gregorius to New York
We don’t know the identify of the infielder that the Tigers are sending along, but it appears that the principles are Greene, Ray, and Gregorius. A quick look at those three.
Gregorius is 24 and has racked up +1.7 WAR in 724 career plate appearances, thanks to an 84 wRC+ and roughly average defense at shortstop per UZR. However, his defensive reputation is significantly better than that, as he was considered a plus defender as a minor leaguer, and could very well turn out to be a real asset in the field. Steamer sees him posting an 86 wRC+ in 2015, so he’s roughly an average hitter for the position, and if he fields up to his reputation, it’s not too hard to see him as a +2 to +3 WAR shortstop going forward.
As a player, he looks a lot like Elvis Andrus, though with a bit less speed and probably a little less glove. Still, nothing wrong with having Andrus Light as your shortstop, especially at the league minimum and with five years of team control. It is worth noting that Gregorius has enough service time that he’ll qualify as a Super Two player next winter, so he’ll get a little more expensive than a traditional 1+ service time player.
With Chris Owings around, the D’Backs judged Gregorius to be superfluous, and will acquire the player who fronted the Doug Fister package last winter. Ray was a bit of a flop in Detroit, pitching poorly both in the big leagues and in Triple-A, and the projections aren’t a big fan; he’s forecast to be a below replacement level arm in 2015. Maybe there’s something there that the numbers don’t see, but that’s what we said last year when Ray was traded for real value, and it hasn’t shown up yet.
For the Tigers, this seems like a pretty clear move towards the future. Greene has never been a sexy prospect, but he pitched well in the big leagues last year, and he projects to be a perfectly reasonable #5 starter in 2015. As a fastball/slider guy, he’s probably always going to have problems with lefties, but his performance against righties should be strong enough to let him soak up innings at a reasonable level.
The Yankees get a solid young starting shortstop who can probably project around league average and has some upside beyond that. The Tigers add a perfectly acceptable back-end starter to fill out their rotation and improve their club for 2015. And the D’Backs trade from a surplus, though unless the second player is something of real value, I’m not sure they come out ahead here.
We’ll do a full write-up once all the parts are known, but this looks like a fine little deal for New York and a smart enough upgrade for Detroit.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
~20 SBs less than Andrus is not a “bit” less speed. That’s not even close
I forgot that succesful stolen bases is the only measure of speed
I didn’t mean to imply it’s the only measurement, but using that individual measurement, it’s not close.
Gregorious Majors: 3 SBs, 2 CSs (60%) Minors: 44 SBs, 30 CSs (59.5%)
Andrus Majors: 192 SBs, 66 CSs (74.4%) Minors: 125 SBs, 50 CSs (71.4%)
2014 was a down year for Andrus all around and his BsR was near his career low. He’s typically between 7.5 – 9.5. Meanwhile, Gregorious has been between .4 and 3.4 so far.
So, yeah, Andrus’ floor is pretty close to Didi’s ceiling. If that’s just a bit different, fine, the Yankees got Andrus Light. In terms of baserunning I see Gregorius as average and Andrus has pretty darn good.
Andrus will have more CS than Gregorious has SB in any given year, and that’s just fine. Andrus should probably stop running so much.
Bleacher creatures rejoice at the ease of their new shortstops first name.
Gabba gabba hey Didi!
“Didi Gregorius… clap clap clapclapclap” isn’t especially crowd-rhythm friendly, however.
“Let’s go Didi…clap clap clapclapclap”
or
“Greg-or Ri-Us” clap clap clapclapclap
This looks like a replacement for old Jeter at the plate, not young Jeter.
A replacement for a young Jeter at the plate would have emptied an already mediocre farm system.
I’d take a young Jeter over the entirety of a mediocre farm system.
Jeter didn’t win all them WSes himself.
Yes, tons of first ballot hall of fame SS’s just lying around this winter. Why didn’t Casanova just get one of those instead?
“Cashman”
Yeah, but there’s something appealing about the idea of Casanova cruising his way through the female front office staff, trying to smooth-talk them out of their future HOF shortstop.
If that’s the case, then it’s still a considerable upgrade at shortstop. Gregorious can actually move to his left.
So much for the Tigers being (so) smitten with Robbie Ray that the chance to acquire Ray was one of the primary reasons for parting with Fisther.
As many of us will recall, some commentators argued that was the “other” reason Dombrowski parted with Fister in addition to his rising salary.
I know. I’m starting to think that Fister had an affair with Dombrowski’s wife. Alternative explanations to justify that trade have all but evaporated.
I agree. It’s hard to call this a move to the future for Detroit considering that Greene is older and more prepared to pitch on the Tigers’ staff this year than Ray is. It seems a move to get a serviceable 5th starter in Detroit or, at worst, a decent bullpen piece and it’s a pretty clear sign that they’re giving up on Ray.
At least Dombrowski didn’t double down on that mistake, jettisoning Ray for something useful pretty quickly.
God I hate being a Yankees fan nowadays.
Yeah, it’s just not worth it if they don’t win the World Series back-to-back-to-back. How do other teams do it?
Me too. Mostly because of comments like this.
Why? I think this is a good pickup. For once, the Yankees get a pre-prime player with a little upside. I’m not saying I think Didi is going to be as good as Jeter, but I think he could be a nice 3-win player who does a little of everything. The youth and cheapness are important here. I’m not saying that I think all the Yankees players in their early 30’s are old yet, but it won’t be long before they are, so a 24-year-old is nice to see.
yeah, and what did they give up…? a back end SPer. Can’t believe there’s nothing more they had to give up. amazing.
Yeah, I love Greene, and I’m not a huge fan of Gregorius, but this is an easy choice.
it isn’t even like the Yankees had to throw money around to make this deal. It does seem as if the DBacks like dealing with the Yankees, no matter who the Snakes GM is at the moment.
And getting the Tigers in on their little trio.
That’s ok: everybody else hates your being also.
Gregorious wasn’t worth more than Robbie Ray?
Oh they traded away Greene?
Incoming Max Scherzer in 3… 2…
I think this does mean that the Yankees will add a starter. They weren’t going to be able to add a SS through free agency but there’s a lot of pitching out there. It may not be Scherzer, maybe it’ll be McCarthy, but they’ll add an SP through free agency.
Dave, do you think the Yankees would be better off, as the roster stands now, platooning Didi with Brendan Ryan? Did has a career 103 wRC+ vs RHP but a *33* wRC+ vs LHP. Brendan Ryan provides a less-worse 75 wRC+ career vs LHP with probably the same defensive production.
Or do you think the Yankees would be better served working on Didi’s approach vs LHP and letting him get through some growing pains?
What do you Yankees’ fans want?
Who do you have to trade for Troy Tulowitzki? How much are you going to bitch and whine when he is injured?
You don’t want someone over 30 then I guess you would complain about Jimmy Rollins.
Asdrubal Cabrera just turned 29. What type of contract would you be willing to offer him and NOT complain about it?
Other than Gregorious, those are about all of your options. Face it, Jeter isn’t coming back and Drew is over 30, injury prone, on the decline and EXPENSIVE for what he gives you.
im happy with the trade plus you have to consider the opportunity cost. i’d much rather have didi and then sign miller and a starter or 2 then dish out more money to drew/asdrubal.
I’m a Yankees fan, and I wanted almost exactly this. If I ran the team (and most of the time, it’s a good thing I don’t) I’d have been eyeing the Rangers’ Andrus/Profar, the Indians’ Lindor/Ramirez, and the DBacks Gregorius/Owings.
I wasn’t really sure where Andrus’ career is headed, and with that contract, that could be concerning. Profar and Lindor would probably require more in a trade than the Yankees could give, though they had much greater ability. Ramirez was a little light on upside and more just about being young and cheap. I never really thought much about Owings, but I felt Gregorius struck the right balance of what you get in return vs. what you have to give up. Also, with more big league time than Lindor (none), and without Profar’s injuries, he had less question marks, even with a lower ceiling.
Please don’t depict us Yankees fans as a bunch of jerks. Don’t do that to any fanbase. Whenever you have large groups of people, some are going to be good people, and some won’t be. It’s kinda screwed up I have to be afraid to tell people my favorite baseball team.
Fangraphs is a site that’s about intelligent thought revolving around baseball. It’s for people who are baseball fans first, and fans of their team second. Check your homerism and fan rivalries at the door.
Isn’t Gregorius essentially Elvis Andrus less $100M?
Or Brendan Ryan less $4mm? I know the club was concerned about the position, but trading a decent young pitcher for a SS who doesn’t hit all that much, and hits lefties almost not at all, seems a bit lopsided. Keeping Greene and starting Ryan at SS for the next 2 years seems more productive.
Yeah, honestly, as the this trade sets in, I’m thinking more and more about what the Yankees gave up. I’m excited because they went out and got one of the trade targets I wanted them to get. But yeah, Shane Greene could be valuable.
I’ll probably feel good about it if they can make a good move with regards to the starting rotation, and we don’t get the combination of Greene being a Cy Young candidate and Gregorius being a flop. Shane Greene being good, but Gregorius also being good is something I can live with. I guess I believe in Gregorius making some improvements that will put him in the 3 WAR a year category.
Sullivan apparently already took care of the comparison:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/didi-gregorius-vs-derek-jeter-importantly/
“principals”
So, Towers was just two years too soon when he said DiDi was the new Jeter?
“and will acquire the player who fronted the Doug Fister package last winter”
So Dombrowski turned Doug Fister into Shane Greene? Allrighty then.
Greene is kindof a poor man’s Fister, but I am sure this wasn’t DD’s intention…
I, too, am a poor man’s Fister. I am male and throw left-handed.
To be fair, it’s a lot more years of Greene than he had of Fister. You may still be right, but it makes it a bit closer.
It looks like the Yankees are acquiring a pull-hitting lefty with the potential for above-average pop for a shortstop. If he can pop ~15 homers a year and his defense is close to as good as some have suggested, he won’t have to improve his on-base skills much to be a very useful player going forward.
So they replaced Jeter with a replacement level player. Got it.
“The Yankees get a solid young starting shortstop who can probably project around league average and has some upside beyond that.”
Obviously you didn’t “get it”.
Not even close.
Even if that was true, it would be better than what Jeter provided over the last 2 seasons.
Anybody else think Everth Cabrera would be just as good, and not EVEN cost Shane Greene?
I know as sabermetric types, we’re not supposed to care about off the field stuff, but Cabrera was both a PED guy, and has been arrested for domestic violence. I don’t look to judge players’ character, but once they have multiple red flags, I start to take notice. I think this qualifies. I wouldn’t put up with that for a guy who had negative WAR last year and projects to be a below average starter.