Yankees Land Their Jeter Replacement

With Derek Jeter riding off into the sunset, the Yankees needed a shortstop. The Diamondbacks were always somewhat natural trade partners, given the presence of both Didi Gregorius and Chris Owings. With a little assistance from the Detroit Tigers, it sounds like the teams have finally struck a deal.

The reported trade looks something like this:

Yankees trade RHP Shane Greene to Detroit
Tigers trade LHP Robbie Ray and an infielder to Arizona
Diamondbacks trade SS Didi Gregorius to New York

We don’t know the identify of the infielder that the Tigers are sending along, but it appears that the principles are Greene, Ray, and Gregorius. A quick look at those three.

Gregorius is 24 and has racked up +1.7 WAR in 724 career plate appearances, thanks to an 84 wRC+ and roughly average defense at shortstop per UZR. However, his defensive reputation is significantly better than that, as he was considered a plus defender as a minor leaguer, and could very well turn out to be a real asset in the field. Steamer sees him posting an 86 wRC+ in 2015, so he’s roughly an average hitter for the position, and if he fields up to his reputation, it’s not too hard to see him as a +2 to +3 WAR shortstop going forward.

As a player, he looks a lot like Elvis Andrus, though with a bit less speed and probably a little less glove. Still, nothing wrong with having Andrus Light as your shortstop, especially at the league minimum and with five years of team control. It is worth noting that Gregorius has enough service time that he’ll qualify as a Super Two player next winter, so he’ll get a little more expensive than a traditional 1+ service time player.

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With Chris Owings around, the D’Backs judged Gregorius to be superfluous, and will acquire the player who fronted the Doug Fister package last winter. Ray was a bit of a flop in Detroit, pitching poorly both in the big leagues and in Triple-A, and the projections aren’t a big fan; he’s forecast to be a below replacement level arm in 2015. Maybe there’s something there that the numbers don’t see, but that’s what we said last year when Ray was traded for real value, and it hasn’t shown up yet.

For the Tigers, this seems like a pretty clear move towards the future. Greene has never been a sexy prospect, but he pitched well in the big leagues last year, and he projects to be a perfectly reasonable #5 starter in 2015. As a fastball/slider guy, he’s probably always going to have problems with lefties, but his performance against righties should be strong enough to let him soak up innings at a reasonable level.

The Yankees get a solid young starting shortstop who can probably project around league average and has some upside beyond that. The Tigers add a perfectly acceptable back-end starter to fill out their rotation and improve their club for 2015. And the D’Backs trade from a surplus, though unless the second player is something of real value, I’m not sure they come out ahead here.

We’ll do a full write-up once all the parts are known, but this looks like a fine little deal for New York and a smart enough upgrade for Detroit.





Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.

52 Comments
Oldest
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Joe
11 years ago

~20 SBs less than Andrus is not a “bit” less speed. That’s not even close

Ben Suissa
11 years ago
Reply to  Joe

I forgot that succesful stolen bases is the only measure of speed

Joe
11 years ago
Reply to  Ben Suissa

I didn’t mean to imply it’s the only measurement, but using that individual measurement, it’s not close.

Gregorious Majors: 3 SBs, 2 CSs (60%) Minors: 44 SBs, 30 CSs (59.5%)

Andrus Majors: 192 SBs, 66 CSs (74.4%) Minors: 125 SBs, 50 CSs (71.4%)

2014 was a down year for Andrus all around and his BsR was near his career low. He’s typically between 7.5 – 9.5. Meanwhile, Gregorious has been between .4 and 3.4 so far.

So, yeah, Andrus’ floor is pretty close to Didi’s ceiling. If that’s just a bit different, fine, the Yankees got Andrus Light. In terms of baserunning I see Gregorius as average and Andrus has pretty darn good.

FuriousToaster
11 years ago
Reply to  Joe

Andrus will have more CS than Gregorious has SB in any given year, and that’s just fine. Andrus should probably stop running so much.

Dayton Moore
11 years ago

Bleacher creatures rejoice at the ease of their new shortstops first name.

JohhnyBDamon
11 years ago
Reply to  Dayton Moore

Gabba gabba hey Didi!

joser
11 years ago
Reply to  Dayton Moore

“Didi Gregorius… clap clap clapclapclap” isn’t especially crowd-rhythm friendly, however.

Antonio Bananas
11 years ago
Reply to  joser

“Let’s go Didi…clap clap clapclapclap”

or

“Greg-or Ri-Us” clap clap clapclapclap

glib
11 years ago

This looks like a replacement for old Jeter at the plate, not young Jeter.

LenardMember since 2016
11 years ago
Reply to  glib

A replacement for a young Jeter at the plate would have emptied an already mediocre farm system.

Eddie Bird
11 years ago
Reply to  Lenard

I’d take a young Jeter over the entirety of a mediocre farm system.

nerf
11 years ago
Reply to  Eddie Bird

Jeter didn’t win all them WSes himself.

Steve
11 years ago
Reply to  Eddie Bird

Yes, tons of first ballot hall of fame SS’s just lying around this winter. Why didn’t Casanova just get one of those instead?

Steve
11 years ago
Reply to  Eddie Bird

“Cashman”

Jon L.
11 years ago
Reply to  Eddie Bird

Yeah, but there’s something appealing about the idea of Casanova cruising his way through the female front office staff, trying to smooth-talk them out of their future HOF shortstop.

Brooks
11 years ago
Reply to  glib

If that’s the case, then it’s still a considerable upgrade at shortstop. Gregorious can actually move to his left.

Yelp
11 years ago

So much for the Tigers being (so) smitten with Robbie Ray that the chance to acquire Ray was one of the primary reasons for parting with Fisther.

As many of us will recall, some commentators argued that was the “other” reason Dombrowski parted with Fister in addition to his rising salary.

Brooks
11 years ago
Reply to  Yelp

I know. I’m starting to think that Fister had an affair with Dombrowski’s wife. Alternative explanations to justify that trade have all but evaporated.

chuckb
11 years ago
Reply to  Yelp

I agree. It’s hard to call this a move to the future for Detroit considering that Greene is older and more prepared to pitch on the Tigers’ staff this year than Ray is. It seems a move to get a serviceable 5th starter in Detroit or, at worst, a decent bullpen piece and it’s a pretty clear sign that they’re giving up on Ray.

At least Dombrowski didn’t double down on that mistake, jettisoning Ray for something useful pretty quickly.

Swfcdan
11 years ago

God I hate being a Yankees fan nowadays.

nerf
11 years ago
Reply to  Swfcdan

Yeah, it’s just not worth it if they don’t win the World Series back-to-back-to-back. How do other teams do it?

Steve
11 years ago
Reply to  Swfcdan

Me too. Mostly because of comments like this.

Billy
11 years ago
Reply to  Swfcdan

Why? I think this is a good pickup. For once, the Yankees get a pre-prime player with a little upside. I’m not saying I think Didi is going to be as good as Jeter, but I think he could be a nice 3-win player who does a little of everything. The youth and cheapness are important here. I’m not saying that I think all the Yankees players in their early 30’s are old yet, but it won’t be long before they are, so a 24-year-old is nice to see.

CrazyPants
11 years ago
Reply to  Billy

yeah, and what did they give up…? a back end SPer. Can’t believe there’s nothing more they had to give up. amazing.

Cool Lester Smooth
11 years ago
Reply to  CrazyPants

Yeah, I love Greene, and I’m not a huge fan of Gregorius, but this is an easy choice.

CrazyPants
11 years ago
Reply to  Billy

it isn’t even like the Yankees had to throw money around to make this deal. It does seem as if the DBacks like dealing with the Yankees, no matter who the Snakes GM is at the moment.

Billy
11 years ago
Reply to  CrazyPants

And getting the Tigers in on their little trio.

joser
11 years ago
Reply to  Swfcdan

That’s ok: everybody else hates your being also.

pitnick
11 years ago

Gregorious wasn’t worth more than Robbie Ray?

FuriousToaster
11 years ago

Oh they traded away Greene?

Incoming Max Scherzer in 3… 2…

chuckb
11 years ago
Reply to  FuriousToaster

I think this does mean that the Yankees will add a starter. They weren’t going to be able to add a SS through free agency but there’s a lot of pitching out there. It may not be Scherzer, maybe it’ll be McCarthy, but they’ll add an SP through free agency.

Jay29
11 years ago

Dave, do you think the Yankees would be better off, as the roster stands now, platooning Didi with Brendan Ryan? Did has a career 103 wRC+ vs RHP but a *33* wRC+ vs LHP. Brendan Ryan provides a less-worse 75 wRC+ career vs LHP with probably the same defensive production.

Or do you think the Yankees would be better served working on Didi’s approach vs LHP and letting him get through some growing pains?

Ctownboy
11 years ago

What do you Yankees’ fans want?

Who do you have to trade for Troy Tulowitzki? How much are you going to bitch and whine when he is injured?

You don’t want someone over 30 then I guess you would complain about Jimmy Rollins.

Asdrubal Cabrera just turned 29. What type of contract would you be willing to offer him and NOT complain about it?

Other than Gregorious, those are about all of your options. Face it, Jeter isn’t coming back and Drew is over 30, injury prone, on the decline and EXPENSIVE for what he gives you.

stonepie
11 years ago
Reply to  Ctownboy

im happy with the trade plus you have to consider the opportunity cost. i’d much rather have didi and then sign miller and a starter or 2 then dish out more money to drew/asdrubal.

Billy
11 years ago
Reply to  Ctownboy

I’m a Yankees fan, and I wanted almost exactly this. If I ran the team (and most of the time, it’s a good thing I don’t) I’d have been eyeing the Rangers’ Andrus/Profar, the Indians’ Lindor/Ramirez, and the DBacks Gregorius/Owings.

I wasn’t really sure where Andrus’ career is headed, and with that contract, that could be concerning. Profar and Lindor would probably require more in a trade than the Yankees could give, though they had much greater ability. Ramirez was a little light on upside and more just about being young and cheap. I never really thought much about Owings, but I felt Gregorius struck the right balance of what you get in return vs. what you have to give up. Also, with more big league time than Lindor (none), and without Profar’s injuries, he had less question marks, even with a lower ceiling.

Please don’t depict us Yankees fans as a bunch of jerks. Don’t do that to any fanbase. Whenever you have large groups of people, some are going to be good people, and some won’t be. It’s kinda screwed up I have to be afraid to tell people my favorite baseball team.

Fangraphs is a site that’s about intelligent thought revolving around baseball. It’s for people who are baseball fans first, and fans of their team second. Check your homerism and fan rivalries at the door.

Steve
11 years ago
Reply to  Billy

Isn’t Gregorius essentially Elvis Andrus less $100M?

Tanned Tom
11 years ago
Reply to  Steve

Or Brendan Ryan less $4mm? I know the club was concerned about the position, but trading a decent young pitcher for a SS who doesn’t hit all that much, and hits lefties almost not at all, seems a bit lopsided. Keeping Greene and starting Ryan at SS for the next 2 years seems more productive.

Billy
11 years ago
Reply to  Steve

Yeah, honestly, as the this trade sets in, I’m thinking more and more about what the Yankees gave up. I’m excited because they went out and got one of the trade targets I wanted them to get. But yeah, Shane Greene could be valuable.

I’ll probably feel good about it if they can make a good move with regards to the starting rotation, and we don’t get the combination of Greene being a Cy Young candidate and Gregorius being a flop. Shane Greene being good, but Gregorius also being good is something I can live with. I guess I believe in Gregorius making some improvements that will put him in the 3 WAR a year category.

Compton
11 years ago

Sullivan apparently already took care of the comparison:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/didi-gregorius-vs-derek-jeter-importantly/

Alec DentonMember since 2016
11 years ago

“principals”

Ryan
11 years ago

So, Towers was just two years too soon when he said DiDi was the new Jeter?

roadrider
11 years ago

“and will acquire the player who fronted the Doug Fister package last winter”

So Dombrowski turned Doug Fister into Shane Greene? Allrighty then.

Steve
11 years ago
Reply to  roadrider

Greene is kindof a poor man’s Fister, but I am sure this wasn’t DD’s intention…

bookbook
11 years ago
Reply to  Steve

I, too, am a poor man’s Fister. I am male and throw left-handed.

Billy
11 years ago
Reply to  roadrider

To be fair, it’s a lot more years of Greene than he had of Fister. You may still be right, but it makes it a bit closer.

Jon L.
11 years ago

It looks like the Yankees are acquiring a pull-hitting lefty with the potential for above-average pop for a shortstop. If he can pop ~15 homers a year and his defense is close to as good as some have suggested, he won’t have to improve his on-base skills much to be a very useful player going forward.

ABomb
11 years ago

So they replaced Jeter with a replacement level player. Got it.

Steve
11 years ago
Reply to  ABomb

“The Yankees get a solid young starting shortstop who can probably project around league average and has some upside beyond that.”

Obviously you didn’t “get it”.

JH
11 years ago
Reply to  ABomb

Not even close.

chuckb
11 years ago
Reply to  ABomb

Even if that was true, it would be better than what Jeter provided over the last 2 seasons.

Don Baylor's knee
11 years ago

Anybody else think Everth Cabrera would be just as good, and not EVEN cost Shane Greene?

Billy
11 years ago

I know as sabermetric types, we’re not supposed to care about off the field stuff, but Cabrera was both a PED guy, and has been arrested for domestic violence. I don’t look to judge players’ character, but once they have multiple red flags, I start to take notice. I think this qualifies. I wouldn’t put up with that for a guy who had negative WAR last year and projects to be a below average starter.