Zack Wheeler Likely Needs Tommy John Surgery
Zack Wheeler, last week, in explaining why his current elbow soreness was no big deal.
The second issue — recurring soreness in his right elbow — raises red flags.
“It’s something that I’ve had before and have had to deal with,” said Wheeler, who is expected to take his next turn in the rotation, which falls on Thursday.
…
“Every pitcher in here pitches through pain at some point, so it’s just a matter of dealing with it and going out there,” Wheeler said. “It wasn’t affecting me all that much so I could go out there and compete like I wanted to. So I was going to do it.”
Today, though, the MRI results have revealed a torn UCL, the injury that leads to Tommy John surgery. Assuming Wheeler doesn’t try to continue to pitch through the pain, he’ll be out until roughly mid-summer of 2016.
This is obviously a significant blow to the Mets, as Wheeler had emerged as a quality starting pitcher. This is where they depth comes in handy, however, as the drop-off from Wheeler to one of Rafael Montero, Steven Matz, or Noah Syndergaard isn’t that large. Here are the Mets current depth chart projections for their rotation candidates:
#14 Mets
| Name | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Harvey | 173.0 | 9.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | .297 | 74.2 % | 3.07 | 3.08 | 2.9 |
| Bartolo Colon | 176.0 | 6.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | .308 | 70.3 % | 4.00 | 3.80 | 1.3 |
| Jon Niese | 178.0 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.9 | .307 | 71.2 % | 3.91 | 3.83 | 1.1 |
| Jacob deGrom | 165.0 | 8.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | .306 | 72.5 % | 3.53 | 3.40 | 1.9 |
| Dillon Gee | 98.0 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | .300 | 70.5 % | 4.23 | 4.24 | 0.2 |
| Noah Syndergaard | 75.0 | 9.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | .310 | 72.8 % | 3.54 | 3.37 | 1.0 |
| Rafael Montero | 28.0 | 8.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | .302 | 74.1 % | 3.56 | 3.62 | 0.3 |
| Steven Matz | 37.0 | 8.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | .306 | 73.4 % | 3.42 | 3.43 | 0.5 |
Zack Wheeler  |
56.0 | 8.8 | 3.5 | 0.8 | .307 | 72.8 % | 3.65 | 3.61 | 0.5 |
| Total | 984.0 | 7.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | .305 | 72.1 % | 3.68 | 3.60 | 9.8 |
ZIPS and Steamer see Montero as Wheeler’s equal for 2015, while actually liking Matz and Syndergaard a little bit more. Of course, losing Wheeler means that one of these guys can’t replace another pitcher when a future injury occurs, so losing Wheeler is far from a good thing, but the Mets are at least positioned to absorb this kind of injury.
The problem will come if too many of Wheeler’s innings are allocated to Dillon Gee. He’ll likely step in and fill the void in the short term, but if he pitches like the projections expect him to pitch, he shouldn’t hold that spot for too long.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
I’d be OK with getting a look at Matt Bowman at some point this summer.
Matz is projected as a reliever. You can’t just prorate that to a starter’s workload. That’s like saying Aaron Barrett would be an improvement over Jordan Zimmermann for the Nats’ rotation. Steamer’s projection for Montero also lists him as primarily a reliever.
The 2016 Mets rotation looks amazing: Harvey, Syndergaard, deGrom, Wheeler, Matz…but as a Mets fan, I’m f**king sick and tired of admiring future rosters that never quite work out as planned.
Dave, I don’t think this sentence is correct:
This is where they depth comes in handy, however, as the drop-off from Wheeler to one of Rafael Montero, Steven Matz, or Noah Syndergaard isn’t that large.
Dillon Gee is likely Wheeler’s replacement in the rotation.
You mean the “projected” drop off from Wheeler to Montero, Matz, Noah, isnt large. Talking about rookies here. The drop off is largely unknown.
spot on. Knowing the Mets’ pitcher development staff and their recent successes, Matz/Thor may actually be an improvement. Gee though…
Every player is subject to all sorts of variables that they have little control over. ML players aren’t exactly known entities in their own right.