ZiPS Stretch Run Update: And Then There Were Four
Below you’ll find today’s ZiPS stretch run update. For details on just what’s going on here, please refer to my original article describing all these mathnanigans.
American League Wild Card
Seattle beat Oakland on Wednesday, sweeping the series and knocking the A’s out of playoff contention. As such, Oakland is no longer a participant in these charts. The Blue Jays won the second game of their series against the Yankees, preventing them from falling to fourth in the playoff probabilities, behind the Mariners. We’ll be a lot closer to knowing who makes the playoffs in the AL after tonight’s games, as those contests — the last contender vs. contender matchup, as well as the biggest creampuff game for a contender — are the two highest leverage games remaining.
| Day | Home Team | Starter | Road Team | Road Starter | Home Team Wins | Road Team Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/30 | Orioles | Alexander Wells | Red Sox | Nick Pivetta | 31.6% | 68.4% |
| 9/30 | Blue Jays | Robbie Ray | Yankees | Corey Kluber | 56.4% | 43.6% |
| 10/1 | Blue Jays | Alek Manoah | Orioles | Conner Greene | 71.9% | 28.1% |
| 10/1 | Nationals | Josh Rogers | Red Sox | Eduardo Rodriguez | 42.4% | 57.6% |
| 10/1 | Yankees | Néstor Cortes Jr. | Rays | Luis Patiño | 55.2% | 44.8% |
| 10/1 | Mariners | Marco Gonzales | Angels | José Suarez | 47.8% | 52.2% |
| 10/2 | Blue Jays | Steven Matz | Orioles | John Means | 62.4% | 37.6% |
| 10/2 | Nationals | Josiah Gray | Red Sox | Tanner Houck | 39.4% | 60.6% |
| 10/2 | Yankees | Jordan Montgomery | Rays | Shane McClanahan | 54.3% | 45.7% |
| 10/2 | Mariners | Chris Flexen | Angels | Jhonathan Diaz | 51.7% | 48.3% |
| 10/3 | Blue Jays | Hyun Jin Ryu | Orioles | Bruce Zimmermann | 65.7% | 34.3% |
| 10/3 | Nationals | Erick Fedde | Red Sox | Chris Sale | 43.3% | 56.7% |
| 10/3 | Yankees | Luis Severino | Rays | Shane Baz | 50.3% | 49.7% |
| 10/3 | Mariners | Tyler Anderson | Angels | Reid Detmers | 47.7% | 52.3% |
| Team | Wild Card 1 | Wild Card 2 | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York | 56.9% | 25.0% | 81.8% |
| Boston | 28.3% | 38.7% | 67.0% |
| Toronto | 9.4% | 19.6% | 29.0% |
| Seattle | 5.4% | 16.7% | 22.2% |
| Scenario | BOS | NYA | TOR | SEA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Beats Washington on Friday | 12.9% | -2.6% | -5.3% | -5.0% |
| Boston Beats Washington on Sunday | 12.8% | -2.5% | -5.4% | -4.8% |
| Boston Beats Washington on Saturday | 12.2% | -2.6% | -5.0% | -4.6% |
| Boston Beats Baltimore on Thursday | 10.1% | -2.0% | -4.2% | -3.9% |
| Baltimore Beats Toronto on Friday | 7.7% | 5.3% | -17.8% | 4.8% |
| Baltimore Beats Toronto on Sunday | 7.4% | 5.2% | -17.0% | 4.4% |
| Baltimore Beats Toronto on Saturday | 7.0% | 4.8% | -16.2% | 4.4% |
| Los Angeles Beats Seattle on Saturday | 5.8% | 3.1% | 3.9% | -12.8% |
| Los Angeles Beats Seattle on Sunday | 5.5% | 3.0% | 3.7% | -12.3% |
| Los Angeles Beats Seattle on Friday | 5.4% | 3.0% | 3.7% | -12.2% |
| New York Beats Toronto on Thursday | 4.5% | 14.1% | -19.1% | 0.5% |
| Tampa Bay Beats New York on Friday | 3.5% | -11.7% | 4.7% | 3.5% |
| Tampa Bay Beats New York on Saturday | 3.4% | -11.4% | 4.5% | 3.4% |
| Tampa Bay Beats New York on Sunday | 3.1% | -10.3% | 4.0% | 3.2% |
| New York Beats Tampa Bay on Friday | -2.5% | 9.6% | -4.0% | -3.2% |
| New York Beats Tampa Bay on Saturday | -2.5% | 9.3% | -3.7% | -3.1% |
| New York Beats Tampa Bay on Sunday | -2.7% | 10.0% | -4.1% | -3.1% |
| Toronto Beats Baltimore on Friday | -3.0% | -2.1% | 7.0% | -1.9% |
| Toronto Beats New York on Thursday | -3.6% | -10.9% | 15.0% | -0.5% |
| Toronto Beats Baltimore on Sunday | -3.8% | -2.7% | 9.1% | -2.5% |
| Toronto Beats Baltimore on Saturday | -3.9% | -3.0% | 9.7% | -2.8% |
| Seattle Beats Los Angeles on Saturday | -5.6% | -3.0% | -3.6% | 12.2% |
| Seattle Beats Los Angeles on Friday | -6.3% | -3.5% | -3.9% | 13.7% |
| Seattle Beats Los Angeles on Sunday | -6.7% | -3.7% | -4.0% | 14.3% |
| Washington Beats Boston on Sunday | -17.3% | 3.2% | 6.8% | 7.3% |
| Washington Beats Boston on Friday | -17.4% | 3.3% | 6.9% | 7.3% |
| Washington Beats Boston on Saturday | -18.8% | 3.7% | 7.3% | 7.8% |
| Baltimore Beats Boston on Thursday | -21.5% | 4.1% | 8.5% | 8.9% |
| Game | Leverage |
|---|---|
| Toronto vs. New York on Thursday | 0.34 |
| Baltimore vs. Boston on Thursday | 0.32 |
| Washington vs. Boston on Saturday | 0.31 |
| Washington vs. Boston on Friday | 0.30 |
| Washington vs. Boston on Sunday | 0.30 |
| Seatle vs. Los Angeles on Sunday | 0.27 |
| Toronto vs. Baltimore on Sunday | 0.26 |
| Seattle vs. Los Angeles on Friday | 0.26 |
| Toronto vs. Baltimore on Saturday | 0.26 |
| Seattle vs. Los Angeles on Saturday | 0.25 |
| Toronto vs. Baltimore on Friday | 0.25 |
| New York vs. Tampa Bay on Friday | 0.21 |
| New York vs. Tampa Bay on Saturday | 0.21 |
| New York vs. Tampa Bay on Sunday | 0.20 |
There’s some good news for Team Entropy. While the long-shot, five-team tiebreaker is dead, the chances of at least one tiebreaker game have increased, as there is now a 41% chance that we’ll have a three-team (30.2%) or four-team (10.8%) tiebreaker scenario. Hail Cthulhu!
National League
Both first-place teams won on Wednesday, with the Braves’ win coming directly against the Phillies. The Dodgers came from behind against the Padres, but San Francisco also won and any day the Giants hold serve is a good day for them. ZiPS is still rather unsure about Scott Kazmir — though it’s a fun story — but the Dodgers are in such a mathematical bind that the Giants could put anyone on the mound today without destroying their divisional chances. I literally checked: I put myself on the mound with an expected ERA of 100.00 and the Giants dropped to 88% to win the NL West. As Kazmir is a much better pitcher than an overweight 43-year-old baseball writer with a 60 mph fastball, the Giants have 93.1% odds to win the division vs. 6.9% for the Dodgers. There’s still a 9% chance of a tiebreaker.
The Phillies are now in Oakland’s spot on the precipice. Philadelphia’s playoff path is straightforward, though quite difficult: the Braves lose every game, lose against the Rockies, then lose against the Phillies, while the Phillies win their four games and that last one. Philadelphia’s probability is at 0.1%.
| Day | Home Team | Starter | Road Team | Road Starter | Home Team Wins | Road Team Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/30 | Braves | Ian Anderson | Phillies | Kyle Gibson | 57.7% | 42.3% |
| 10/1 | Braves | Huascar Ynoa | Mets | Noah Syndergaard | 57.9% | 42.1% |
| 10/1 | Marlins | Sandy Alcantara | Phillies | Ranger Suárez | 48.0% | 52.0% |
| 10/2 | Braves | Jesse Chavez | Mets | Carlos Carrasco | 55.3% | 44.7% |
| 10/2 | Marlins | Jesús Luzardo | Phillies | Hans Crouse | 50.1% | 49.9% |
| 10/3 | Braves | Charlie Morton | Mets | Marcus Stroman | 61.8% | 38.2% |
| 10/3 | Marlins | Trevor Rogers | Phillies | Zack Wheeler | 42.3% | 57.7% |
| 10/4 | Braves | Max Fried | Rockies | Kyle Freeland | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| 10/5 | Phillies | Aaron Nola | Braves | Ian Anderson | 51.4% | 48.6% |
| Day | Home Team | Starter | Road Team | Road Starter | Home Team Wins | Road Team Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/30 | Dodgers | Tony Gonsolin | Padres | Vince Velasquez | 58.9% | 41.1% |
| 9/30 | Giants | Scott Kazmir | Diamondbacks | Madison Bumgarner | 57.5% | 42.5% |
| 10/1 | Dodgers | Clayton Kershaw | Brewers | Eric Lauer | 62.7% | 37.3% |
| 10/1 | Giants | Anthony DeSclafani | Padres | Joe Musgrove | 56.4% | 43.6% |
| 10/2 | Dodgers | Julio Urías | Brewers | Corbin Burnes | 50.5% | 49.5% |
| 10/2 | Giants | Kevin Gausman | Padres | Nabil Crismatt | 63.0% | 37.0% |
| 10/3 | Dodgers | Walker Buehler | Brewers | Freddy Peralta | 58.1% | 41.9% |
| 10/3 | Giants | Logan Webb | Padres | Reiss Knehr | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| 10/4 | Giants | Alex Wood | Dodgers | Max Scherzer | 53.3% | 46.7% |
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
Yog-Sothoth knows the gate.