ZiPS Stretch Run Update: And Then There Were Four
Below you’ll find today’s ZiPS stretch run update. For details on just what’s going on here, please refer to my original article describing all these mathnanigans.
American League Wild Card
Seattle beat Oakland on Wednesday, sweeping the series and knocking the A’s out of playoff contention. As such, Oakland is no longer a participant in these charts. The Blue Jays won the second game of their series against the Yankees, preventing them from falling to fourth in the playoff probabilities, behind the Mariners. We’ll be a lot closer to knowing who makes the playoffs in the AL after tonight’s games, as those contests — the last contender vs. contender matchup, as well as the biggest creampuff game for a contender — are the two highest leverage games remaining.
| Day | Home Team | Starter | Road Team | Road Starter | Home Team Wins | Road Team Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/30 | Orioles | Alexander Wells | Red Sox | Nick Pivetta | 31.6% | 68.4% |
| 9/30 | Blue Jays | Robbie Ray | Yankees | Corey Kluber | 56.4% | 43.6% |
| 10/1 | Blue Jays | Alek Manoah | Orioles | Conner Greene | 71.9% | 28.1% |
| 10/1 | Nationals | Josh Rogers | Red Sox | Eduardo Rodriguez | 42.4% | 57.6% |
| 10/1 | Yankees | Néstor Cortes Jr. | Rays | Luis Patiño | 55.2% | 44.8% |
| 10/1 | Mariners | Marco Gonzales | Angels | José Suarez | 47.8% | 52.2% |
| 10/2 | Blue Jays | Steven Matz | Orioles | John Means | 62.4% | 37.6% |
| 10/2 | Nationals | Josiah Gray | Red Sox | Tanner Houck | 39.4% | 60.6% |
| 10/2 | Yankees | Jordan Montgomery | Rays | Shane McClanahan | 54.3% | 45.7% |
| 10/2 | Mariners | Chris Flexen | Angels | Jhonathan Diaz | 51.7% | 48.3% |
| 10/3 | Blue Jays | Hyun Jin Ryu | Orioles | Bruce Zimmermann | 65.7% | 34.3% |
| 10/3 | Nationals | Erick Fedde | Red Sox | Chris Sale | 43.3% | 56.7% |
| 10/3 | Yankees | Luis Severino | Rays | Shane Baz | 50.3% | 49.7% |
| 10/3 | Mariners | Tyler Anderson | Angels | Reid Detmers | 47.7% | 52.3% |
| Team | Wild Card 1 | Wild Card 2 | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York | 56.9% | 25.0% | 81.8% |
| Boston | 28.3% | 38.7% | 67.0% |
| Toronto | 9.4% | 19.6% | 29.0% |
| Seattle | 5.4% | 16.7% | 22.2% |
| Scenario | BOS | NYA | TOR | SEA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Beats Washington on Friday | 12.9% | -2.6% | -5.3% | -5.0% |
| Boston Beats Washington on Sunday | 12.8% | -2.5% | -5.4% | -4.8% |
| Boston Beats Washington on Saturday | 12.2% | -2.6% | -5.0% | -4.6% |
| Boston Beats Baltimore on Thursday | 10.1% | -2.0% | -4.2% | -3.9% |
| Baltimore Beats Toronto on Friday | 7.7% | 5.3% | -17.8% | 4.8% |
| Baltimore Beats Toronto on Sunday | 7.4% | 5.2% | -17.0% | 4.4% |
| Baltimore Beats Toronto on Saturday | 7.0% | 4.8% | -16.2% | 4.4% |
| Los Angeles Beats Seattle on Saturday | 5.8% | 3.1% | 3.9% | -12.8% |
| Los Angeles Beats Seattle on Sunday | 5.5% | 3.0% | 3.7% | -12.3% |
| Los Angeles Beats Seattle on Friday | 5.4% | 3.0% | 3.7% | -12.2% |
| New York Beats Toronto on Thursday | 4.5% | 14.1% | -19.1% | 0.5% |
| Tampa Bay Beats New York on Friday | 3.5% | -11.7% | 4.7% | 3.5% |
| Tampa Bay Beats New York on Saturday | 3.4% | -11.4% | 4.5% | 3.4% |
| Tampa Bay Beats New York on Sunday | 3.1% | -10.3% | 4.0% | 3.2% |
| New York Beats Tampa Bay on Friday | -2.5% | 9.6% | -4.0% | -3.2% |
| New York Beats Tampa Bay on Saturday | -2.5% | 9.3% | -3.7% | -3.1% |
| New York Beats Tampa Bay on Sunday | -2.7% | 10.0% | -4.1% | -3.1% |
| Toronto Beats Baltimore on Friday | -3.0% | -2.1% | 7.0% | -1.9% |
| Toronto Beats New York on Thursday | -3.6% | -10.9% | 15.0% | -0.5% |
| Toronto Beats Baltimore on Sunday | -3.8% | -2.7% | 9.1% | -2.5% |
| Toronto Beats Baltimore on Saturday | -3.9% | -3.0% | 9.7% | -2.8% |
| Seattle Beats Los Angeles on Saturday | -5.6% | -3.0% | -3.6% | 12.2% |
| Seattle Beats Los Angeles on Friday | -6.3% | -3.5% | -3.9% | 13.7% |
| Seattle Beats Los Angeles on Sunday | -6.7% | -3.7% | -4.0% | 14.3% |
| Washington Beats Boston on Sunday | -17.3% | 3.2% | 6.8% | 7.3% |
| Washington Beats Boston on Friday | -17.4% | 3.3% | 6.9% | 7.3% |
| Washington Beats Boston on Saturday | -18.8% | 3.7% | 7.3% | 7.8% |
| Baltimore Beats Boston on Thursday | -21.5% | 4.1% | 8.5% | 8.9% |
| Game | Leverage |
|---|---|
| Toronto vs. New York on Thursday | 0.34 |
| Baltimore vs. Boston on Thursday | 0.32 |
| Washington vs. Boston on Saturday | 0.31 |
| Washington vs. Boston on Friday | 0.30 |
| Washington vs. Boston on Sunday | 0.30 |
| Seatle vs. Los Angeles on Sunday | 0.27 |
| Toronto vs. Baltimore on Sunday | 0.26 |
| Seattle vs. Los Angeles on Friday | 0.26 |
| Toronto vs. Baltimore on Saturday | 0.26 |
| Seattle vs. Los Angeles on Saturday | 0.25 |
| Toronto vs. Baltimore on Friday | 0.25 |
| New York vs. Tampa Bay on Friday | 0.21 |
| New York vs. Tampa Bay on Saturday | 0.21 |
| New York vs. Tampa Bay on Sunday | 0.20 |
There’s some good news for Team Entropy. While the long-shot, five-team tiebreaker is dead, the chances of at least one tiebreaker game have increased, as there is now a 41% chance that we’ll have a three-team (30.2%) or four-team (10.8%) tiebreaker scenario. Hail Cthulhu!
National League
Both first-place teams won on Wednesday, with the Braves’ win coming directly against the Phillies. The Dodgers came from behind against the Padres, but San Francisco also won and any day the Giants hold serve is a good day for them. ZiPS is still rather unsure about Scott Kazmir — though it’s a fun story — but the Dodgers are in such a mathematical bind that the Giants could put anyone on the mound today without destroying their divisional chances. I literally checked: I put myself on the mound with an expected ERA of 100.00 and the Giants dropped to 88% to win the NL West. As Kazmir is a much better pitcher than an overweight 43-year-old baseball writer with a 60 mph fastball, the Giants have 93.1% odds to win the division vs. 6.9% for the Dodgers. There’s still a 9% chance of a tiebreaker.
The Phillies are now in Oakland’s spot on the precipice. Philadelphia’s playoff path is straightforward, though quite difficult: the Braves lose every game, lose against the Rockies, then lose against the Phillies, while the Phillies win their four games and that last one. Philadelphia’s probability is at 0.1%.
| Day | Home Team | Starter | Road Team | Road Starter | Home Team Wins | Road Team Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/30 | Braves | Ian Anderson | Phillies | Kyle Gibson | 57.7% | 42.3% |
| 10/1 | Braves | Huascar Ynoa | Mets | Noah Syndergaard | 57.9% | 42.1% |
| 10/1 | Marlins | Sandy Alcantara | Phillies | Ranger Suárez | 48.0% | 52.0% |
| 10/2 | Braves | Jesse Chavez | Mets | Carlos Carrasco | 55.3% | 44.7% |
| 10/2 | Marlins | Jesús Luzardo | Phillies | Hans Crouse | 50.1% | 49.9% |
| 10/3 | Braves | Charlie Morton | Mets | Marcus Stroman | 61.8% | 38.2% |
| 10/3 | Marlins | Trevor Rogers | Phillies | Zack Wheeler | 42.3% | 57.7% |
| 10/4 | Braves | Max Fried | Rockies | Kyle Freeland | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| 10/5 | Phillies | Aaron Nola | Braves | Ian Anderson | 51.4% | 48.6% |
| Day | Home Team | Starter | Road Team | Road Starter | Home Team Wins | Road Team Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/30 | Dodgers | Tony Gonsolin | Padres | Vince Velasquez | 58.9% | 41.1% |
| 9/30 | Giants | Scott Kazmir | Diamondbacks | Madison Bumgarner | 57.5% | 42.5% |
| 10/1 | Dodgers | Clayton Kershaw | Brewers | Eric Lauer | 62.7% | 37.3% |
| 10/1 | Giants | Anthony DeSclafani | Padres | Joe Musgrove | 56.4% | 43.6% |
| 10/2 | Dodgers | Julio Urías | Brewers | Corbin Burnes | 50.5% | 49.5% |
| 10/2 | Giants | Kevin Gausman | Padres | Nabil Crismatt | 63.0% | 37.0% |
| 10/3 | Dodgers | Walker Buehler | Brewers | Freddy Peralta | 58.1% | 41.9% |
| 10/3 | Giants | Logan Webb | Padres | Reiss Knehr | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| 10/4 | Giants | Alex Wood | Dodgers | Max Scherzer | 53.3% | 46.7% |
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
Yog-Sothoth knows the gate.
refuse 2 lose
>I literally checked: I put myself on the mound with an expected ERA of 100.00 and the Giants dropped to 88% to win the NL West.
That is a sight I’d want to see
“As Kazmir is a much better pitcher than an overweight 43-year-old baseball writer with a 60 mph fastball…”
This strikes me as a lazy and untested assumption. As someone whose career arc is much closer to that of the latter athlete than the former, I’d like to believe we can hold our own against a guy who’s only out-thrown us by 11 not very good MLB innings over the last 5 years.
Shut up, it’s realistic!
This guy lives off of his Zips which is proven to be deviate horribly from any sort of conclusion. Some reason it’s Proven Data. Not a Dodgers fan either
Interesting, thanks for the leg work on the matchups and whatnot. How does Zips work to create these percentages and stats? Do you use pitchers and or Clubs overall stats or can ya break between road and home stats..day and night games.. grass or turf? Ect… ? Cause Kluber pitched best this Season ( better record) on the road and at night. When ya add he’s pitching on Turf makes his stats even more intriguing. Than there’s J. Means, he’s pitched much better on the road than at Home as well as he has better stats while on Turf, that and his Sept #s are wayyy better than August. Plus he also does better against Righties whom the Jays have more Right batters than lefties. Just curious now the Mariners whom you gave a 3.3% chance to make the playoffs when ya started this exercise and now they’ve jumped to 23% chance to make the playoffs. What did the stat analyzers miss with Them because that’s a huge jump as well as you being way off on percentage chances only after 3 games. If you were to do this from simply the Last Months Stats I think you would have more statistical correctness than what you’ve compiled. That Said Go Mariners!
Correct on Kluber
Merry Nerds all the way
Respectfully, I know you just punch in the raw data and ZIPS figures out team and starting pitcher quality and from there calculates game probabilities. But if your system says the Mariners at home are a toss up against the Angels, there’s something missing in the process. Even looking at run differential the Mariners are better than the Angels this year and that includes games played by Mike Trout and started by Shohei Ohtani, neither of which will happen. The Angels are a pretty bad team right now.
Vegas thinks it’s about 62-38 for the Mariners (at least on Friday), and I’m guessing you wouldn’t take the Angels at even money or slightly better.
I agree w/you, that seems off.
I can’t see how the Mariners are *underdogs* with Flexen starting at home vs. Reid Detmers.
I was going to mention that but didn’t want to sound to bitchy. Seriously thought where the F do they get this? I was correct about Kluber tonight prolly Means tomorrow. I mean Dietmers can’t even get past the second round of the lineup after that he’s Tagged. Plus that’s the Mariners MO, keep em in the game with pitching, wear the starters out, than pummel the horrible BPs. Angels BPs aren’t anything to call home about, Flexen has 2nd best record in ALL Of the AL! Plus not to mention our Farm, besides the Rays, The Ners have best farm in Baseball. Oh Yea, the last 30 days the Ners are 3rd in Saves, 4th Save oops, tied 3rd in Shutouts and top 5 in Wins. Offensive numbers 8 in Runs, 15 SB, 15, RBI, 12 er something in Avg… ect…. Which are better numbers than the Bo Sox and Even Yankees these past 30 days.
So wait: what’s the scenario if there’s a five-way tie involving Houston? Do they just have their tie-breaker with Seattle and the loser is just out on the WC?