ZiPS Stretch Run Update: And Then There Were Four

by
September 30, 2021

Below you’ll find today’s ZiPS stretch run update. For details on just what’s going on here, please refer to my original article describing all these mathnanigans.

American League Wild Card

Seattle beat Oakland on Wednesday, sweeping the series and knocking the A’s out of playoff contention. As such, Oakland is no longer a participant in these charts. The Blue Jays won the second game of their series against the Yankees, preventing them from falling to fourth in the playoff probabilities, behind the Mariners. We’ll be a lot closer to knowing who makes the playoffs in the AL after tonight’s games, as those contests — the last contender vs. contender matchup, as well as the biggest creampuff game for a contender — are the two highest leverage games remaining.

ZiPS Playoff Drive Projections – AL Wild Card
Day Home Team Starter Road Team Road Starter Home Team Wins Road Team Wins
9/30 Orioles Alexander Wells Red Sox Nick Pivetta 31.6% 68.4%
9/30 Blue Jays Robbie Ray Yankees Corey Kluber 56.4% 43.6%
10/1 Blue Jays Alek Manoah Orioles Conner Greene 71.9% 28.1%
10/1 Nationals Josh Rogers Red Sox Eduardo Rodriguez 42.4% 57.6%
10/1 Yankees Néstor Cortes Jr. Rays Luis Patiño 55.2% 44.8%
10/1 Mariners Marco Gonzales Angels José Suarez 47.8% 52.2%
10/2 Blue Jays Steven Matz Orioles John Means 62.4% 37.6%
10/2 Nationals Josiah Gray Red Sox Tanner Houck 39.4% 60.6%
10/2 Yankees Jordan Montgomery Rays Shane McClanahan 54.3% 45.7%
10/2 Mariners Chris Flexen Angels Jhonathan Diaz 51.7% 48.3%
10/3 Blue Jays Hyun Jin Ryu Orioles Bruce Zimmermann 65.7% 34.3%
10/3 Nationals Erick Fedde Red Sox Chris Sale 43.3% 56.7%
10/3 Yankees Luis Severino Rays Shane Baz 50.3% 49.7%
10/3 Mariners Tyler Anderson Angels Reid Detmers 47.7% 52.3%

ZiPS Playoff Drive Projections – AL Wild Card Standings
Team Wild Card 1 Wild Card 2 Playoffs
New York 56.9% 25.0% 81.8%
Boston 28.3% 38.7% 67.0%
Toronto 9.4% 19.6% 29.0%
Seattle 5.4% 16.7% 22.2%

ZiPS Playoff Drive Projections – Changes in Playoff Projections
Scenario BOS NYA TOR SEA
Boston Beats Washington on Friday 12.9% -2.6% -5.3% -5.0%
Boston Beats Washington on Sunday 12.8% -2.5% -5.4% -4.8%
Boston Beats Washington on Saturday 12.2% -2.6% -5.0% -4.6%
Boston Beats Baltimore on Thursday 10.1% -2.0% -4.2% -3.9%
Baltimore Beats Toronto on Friday 7.7% 5.3% -17.8% 4.8%
Baltimore Beats Toronto on Sunday 7.4% 5.2% -17.0% 4.4%
Baltimore Beats Toronto on Saturday 7.0% 4.8% -16.2% 4.4%
Los Angeles Beats Seattle on Saturday 5.8% 3.1% 3.9% -12.8%
Los Angeles Beats Seattle on Sunday 5.5% 3.0% 3.7% -12.3%
Los Angeles Beats Seattle on Friday 5.4% 3.0% 3.7% -12.2%
New York Beats Toronto on Thursday 4.5% 14.1% -19.1% 0.5%
Tampa Bay Beats New York on Friday 3.5% -11.7% 4.7% 3.5%
Tampa Bay Beats New York on Saturday 3.4% -11.4% 4.5% 3.4%
Tampa Bay Beats New York on Sunday 3.1% -10.3% 4.0% 3.2%
New York Beats Tampa Bay on Friday -2.5% 9.6% -4.0% -3.2%
New York Beats Tampa Bay on Saturday -2.5% 9.3% -3.7% -3.1%
New York Beats Tampa Bay on Sunday -2.7% 10.0% -4.1% -3.1%
Toronto Beats Baltimore on Friday -3.0% -2.1% 7.0% -1.9%
Toronto Beats New York on Thursday -3.6% -10.9% 15.0% -0.5%
Toronto Beats Baltimore on Sunday -3.8% -2.7% 9.1% -2.5%
Toronto Beats Baltimore on Saturday -3.9% -3.0% 9.7% -2.8%
Seattle Beats Los Angeles on Saturday -5.6% -3.0% -3.6% 12.2%
Seattle Beats Los Angeles on Friday -6.3% -3.5% -3.9% 13.7%
Seattle Beats Los Angeles on Sunday -6.7% -3.7% -4.0% 14.3%
Washington Beats Boston on Sunday -17.3% 3.2% 6.8% 7.3%
Washington Beats Boston on Friday -17.4% 3.3% 6.9% 7.3%
Washington Beats Boston on Saturday -18.8% 3.7% 7.3% 7.8%
Baltimore Beats Boston on Thursday -21.5% 4.1% 8.5% 8.9%

ZiPS Playoff Drive Projections – Changes in Playoff Projections
Game Leverage
Toronto vs. New York on Thursday 0.34
Baltimore vs. Boston on Thursday 0.32
Washington vs. Boston on Saturday 0.31
Washington vs. Boston on Friday 0.30
Washington vs. Boston on Sunday 0.30
Seatle vs. Los Angeles on Sunday 0.27
Toronto vs. Baltimore on Sunday 0.26
Seattle vs. Los Angeles on Friday 0.26
Toronto vs. Baltimore on Saturday 0.26
Seattle vs. Los Angeles on Saturday 0.25
Toronto vs. Baltimore on Friday 0.25
New York vs. Tampa Bay on Friday 0.21
New York vs. Tampa Bay on Saturday 0.21
New York vs. Tampa Bay on Sunday 0.20

There’s some good news for Team Entropy. While the long-shot, five-team tiebreaker is dead, the chances of at least one tiebreaker game have increased, as there is now a 41% chance that we’ll have a three-team (30.2%) or four-team (10.8%) tiebreaker scenario. Hail Cthulhu!

National League

Both first-place teams won on Wednesday, with the Braves’ win coming directly against the Phillies. The Dodgers came from behind against the Padres, but San Francisco also won and any day the Giants hold serve is a good day for them. ZiPS is still rather unsure about Scott Kazmir — though it’s a fun story — but the Dodgers are in such a mathematical bind that the Giants could put anyone on the mound today without destroying their divisional chances. I literally checked: I put myself on the mound with an expected ERA of 100.00 and the Giants dropped to 88% to win the NL West. As Kazmir is a much better pitcher than an overweight 43-year-old baseball writer with a 60 mph fastball, the Giants have 93.1% odds to win the division vs. 6.9% for the Dodgers. There’s still a 9% chance of a tiebreaker.

The Phillies are now in Oakland’s spot on the precipice. Philadelphia’s playoff path is straightforward, though quite difficult: the Braves lose every game, lose against the Rockies, then lose against the Phillies, while the Phillies win their four games and that last one. Philadelphia’s probability is at 0.1%.

ZiPS Playoff Drive Projections – NL East
Day Home Team Starter Road Team Road Starter Home Team Wins Road Team Wins
9/30 Braves Ian Anderson Phillies Kyle Gibson 57.7% 42.3%
10/1 Braves Huascar Ynoa Mets Noah Syndergaard 57.9% 42.1%
10/1 Marlins Sandy Alcantara Phillies Ranger Suárez 48.0% 52.0%
10/2 Braves Jesse Chavez Mets Carlos Carrasco 55.3% 44.7%
10/2 Marlins Jesús Luzardo Phillies Hans Crouse 50.1% 49.9%
10/3 Braves Charlie Morton Mets Marcus Stroman 61.8% 38.2%
10/3 Marlins Trevor Rogers Phillies Zack Wheeler 42.3% 57.7%
10/4 Braves Max Fried Rockies Kyle Freeland 54.5% 45.5%
10/5 Phillies Aaron Nola Braves Ian Anderson 51.4% 48.6%

ZiPS Playoff Drive Projections – NL West
Day Home Team Starter Road Team Road Starter Home Team Wins Road Team Wins
9/30 Dodgers Tony Gonsolin Padres Vince Velasquez 58.9% 41.1%
9/30 Giants Scott Kazmir Diamondbacks Madison Bumgarner 57.5% 42.5%
10/1 Dodgers Clayton Kershaw Brewers Eric Lauer 62.7% 37.3%
10/1 Giants Anthony DeSclafani Padres Joe Musgrove 56.4% 43.6%
10/2 Dodgers Julio Urías Brewers Corbin Burnes 50.5% 49.5%
10/2 Giants Kevin Gausman Padres Nabil Crismatt 63.0% 37.0%
10/3 Dodgers Walker Buehler Brewers Freddy Peralta 58.1% 41.9%
10/3 Giants Logan Webb Padres Reiss Knehr 66.7% 33.3%
10/4 Giants Alex Wood Dodgers Max Scherzer 53.3% 46.7%





 

Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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sadtrombonemember
2 years ago

Yog-Sothoth knows the gate.

2