ZiPS Stretch Run Updates for 9/29
A few days ago, I wrote about projections and the stretch run, using ZiPS to project each individual game and estimate its relative importance for the final standings. With just a few games remaining, most have the potential to drastically swing the disposition of the race. For example, the Mariners saw their playoff probability quintuple with last night’s win over the A’s! Let’s break down the latest and greatest.
AL Wild Card
This one is still very wide open, with the main difference from 48 hours ago being that the Mariners have pushed the A’s to the brink of elimination. Oakland can still make the playoffs, but the path is narrow and would require Oakland to win three or four games while Toronto, Boston, and Seattle mostly lose, and then perhaps survive a tiebreaker. Oakland can no longer catch the Yankees, so it’s in the A’s interest for the Yankees to finish a sweep of the Jays:
| Day | Home Team | Starter | Road Team | Road Starter | Home Team Wins | Road Team Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/29 | Orioles | Zac Lowther | Red Sox | Nathan Eovaldi | 31.6% | 68.4% |
| 9/29 | Blue Jays | José Berríos | Yankees | Gerrit Cole | 51.2% | 48.8% |
| 9/29 | Mariners | Logan Gilbert | Athletics | Frankie Montas | 45.6% | 54.4% |
| 9/30 | Orioles | Alexander Wells | Red Sox | Nick Pivetta | 31.6% | 68.4% |
| 9/30 | Blue Jays | Robbie Ray | Yankees | Corey Kluber | 56.4% | 43.6% |
| 10/1 | Blue Jays | Alek Manoah | Orioles | Spenser Watkins | 72.3% | 27.7% |
| 10/1 | Nationals | Erick Fedde | Red Sox | Eduardo Rodriguez | 47.2% | 52.8% |
| 10/1 | Yankees | Néstor Cortes Jr. | Rays | Luis Patiño | 55.2% | 44.8% |
| 10/1 | Mariners | Marco Gonzales | Angels | José Suarez | 47.8% | 52.2% |
| 10/1 | Astros | Zack Greinke | Athletics | Sean Manaea | 57.4% | 42.6% |
| 10/2 | Blue Jays | Steven Matz | Orioles | John Means | 62.4% | 37.6% |
| 10/2 | Nationals | Josh Rogers | Red Sox | Tanner Houck | 38.6% | 61.4% |
| 10/2 | Yankees | Jordan Montgomery | Rays | Shane McClanahan | 54.3% | 45.7% |
| 10/2 | Mariners | Chris Flexen | Angels | Jhonathan Diaz | 51.7% | 48.3% |
| 10/2 | Astros | Framber Valdez | Athletics | Paul Blackburn | 64.7% | 35.3% |
| 10/3 | Blue Jays | Hyun Jin Ryu | Orioles | Bruce Zimmermann | 65.7% | 34.3% |
| 10/3 | Nationals | Josiah Gray | Red Sox | Chris Sale | 41.5% | 58.5% |
| 10/3 | Yankees | Jameson Taillon | Rays | Shane Baz | 45.7% | 54.3% |
| 10/3 | Mariners | Tyler Anderson | Angels | Shohei Ohtani | 39.6% | 60.4% |
| 10/3 | Astros | Jake Odorizzi | Athletics | Cole Irvin | 63.8% | 36.2% |
| Team | Wild Card 1 | Wild Card 2 | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York | 74.1% | 17.9% | 92.0% |
| Boston | 17.4% | 49.7% | 67.1% |
| Toronto | 6.4% | 18.4% | 24.7% |
| Seattle | 2.1% | 14.0% | 16.1% |
| Oakland | 0.0% | 0.01% | 0.01% |
| Scenario | BOS | NYY | TOR | SEA | OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Beats Washington on Friday | 12.7% | -1.6% | -6.0% | -5.1% | 0.0% |
| Boston Beats Washington on Sunday | 11.1% | -1.4% | -5.3% | -4.5% | 0.0% |
| Boston Beats Washington on Saturday | 10.6% | -1.4% | -5.0% | -4.2% | 0.0% |
| Boston Beats Baltimore on Thursday | 9.1% | -1.1% | -4.4% | -3.6% | 0.0% |
| Boston Beats Baltimore on Wednesday | 8.4% | -1.2% | -3.9% | -3.3% | 0.0% |
| Baltimore Beats Toronto on Friday | 7.6% | 2.8% | -13.8% | 3.4% | 0.0% |
| Baltimore Beats Toronto on Sunday | 7.3% | 2.8% | -13.2% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| Baltimore Beats Toronto on Saturday | 7.0% | 2.5% | -12.5% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| New York Beats Toronto on Thursday | 5.5% | 6.7% | -13.9% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Los Angeles Beats Seattle on Saturday | 5.2% | 1.4% | 2.6% | -9.2% | 0.0% |
| Los Angeles Beats Seattle on Friday | 5.0% | 1.3% | 2.4% | -8.7% | 0.0% |
| New York Beats Toronto on Wednesday | 5.0% | 6.6% | -13.1% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Oakland Beats Seattle on Wednesday | 4.8% | 1.3% | 2.4% | -8.5% | 0.0% |
| Los Angeles Beats Seattle on Sunday | 4.3% | 1.1% | 2.3% | -7.8% | 0.0% |
| Tampa Bay Beats New York on Saturday | 2.0% | -5.8% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Tampa Bay Beats New York on Friday | 2.0% | -5.8% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Tampa Bay Beats New York on Sunday | 1.5% | -4.5% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Oakland Beats Houston on Saturday | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Oakland Beats Houston on Friday | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Houston Beats Oakland on Friday | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Houston Beats Oakland on Saturday | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Houston Beats Oakland on Sunday | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Oakland Beats Houston on Sunday | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| New York Beats Tampa Bay on Friday | -1.2% | 4.5% | -2.0% | -1.3% | 0.0% |
| New York Beats Tampa Bay on Saturday | -1.3% | 4.6% | -2.0% | -1.3% | 0.0% |
| New York Beats Tampa Bay on Sunday | -1.4% | 5.0% | -2.2% | -1.3% | 0.0% |
| Toronto Beats Baltimore on Friday | -3.1% | -1.3% | 5.8% | -1.4% | 0.0% |
| Toronto Beats Baltimore on Sunday | -4.0% | -1.5% | 7.4% | -1.8% | 0.0% |
| Toronto Beats Baltimore on Saturday | -4.2% | -1.7% | 7.8% | -1.8% | 0.0% |
| Toronto Beats New York on Thursday | -4.6% | -5.4% | 11.4% | -1.3% | 0.0% |
| Seattle Beats Los Angeles on Saturday | -4.7% | -1.2% | -2.6% | 8.5% | 0.0% |
| Toronto Beats New York on Wednesday | -5.2% | -6.3% | 13.2% | -1.8% | 0.0% |
| Seattle Beats Los Angeles on Friday | -5.2% | -1.2% | -2.9% | 9.4% | 0.0% |
| Seattle Beats Oakland on Wednesday | -5.5% | -1.5% | -3.1% | 10.1% | 0.0% |
| Seatle Beats Los Angeles on Sunday | -7.1% | -1.7% | -3.3% | 12.2% | 0.0% |
| Washington Beats Boston on Friday | -13.9% | 1.6% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 0.0% |
| Washington Beats Boston on Sunday | -15.8% | 1.7% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 0.0% |
| Washington Beats Boston on Saturday | -16.4% | 2.0% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 0.0% |
| Baltimore Beats Boston on Thursday | -18.6% | 2.0% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 0.0% |
| Baltimore Beats Boston on Wednesday | -18.7% | 2.1% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 0.0% |
| Game | Leverage |
|---|---|
| Baltimore vs. Boston on Thursday | 0.28 |
| Baltimore vs. Boston on Wednesday | 0.27 |
| Washington vs. Boston on Saturday | 0.27 |
| Washington vs. Boston on Sunday | 0.27 |
| Washington vs. Boston on Friday | 0.27 |
| Toronto vs. New York on Wednesday | 0.26 |
| Toronto vs. New York on Thursday | 0.25 |
| Toronto vs. Baltimore on Sunday | 0.21 |
| Toronto vs. Baltimore on Saturday | 0.20 |
| Seatle vs. Los Angeles on Sunday | 0.20 |
| Toronto vs. Baltimore on Friday | 0.20 |
| Seattle vs. Oakland on Wednesday | 0.19 |
| Seattle vs. Los Angeles on Friday | 0.18 |
| Seattle vs. Los Angeles on Saturday | 0.18 |
| New York vs. Tampa Bay on Saturday | 0.10 |
| New York vs. Tampa Bay on Friday | 0.10 |
| New York vs. Tampa Bay on Sunday | 0.10 |
| Houston vs. Oakland on Saturday | 0.00 |
| Houston vs. Oakland on Sunday | 0.00 |
| Houston vs. Oakland on Friday | 0.00 |
The Mariners winning again was a boost to Team Entropy. There’s now a 32.2% projected chance of at least one tiebreaker game: 25.5% of a three-way tiebreaker, 6.7% of a four-way, and 0.04% of full-on chaos mode.
NL East
The Braves won the first game of their three-game set, leaving the Phillies 3 1/2 games back with just five to play. Losses for Philadelphia are brutal at this point, with Atlanta now holding a 93.7% chance of winning outright. The odds of the Phillies winning without the Braves playing their makeup game against the Rockies are down to 0.2%, and the Phillies get most of their playoff spots in the simulations in which they force the play-in; the Braves are only a slight favorite over the Rockies and the Phillies at home are favored over Atlanta. All told, it’s 97.7% Atlanta and 2.3% Philadelphia, a long-shot for the Phils but still plausible. The Phillies get a boost here by getting to play the Braves two more times:
| Day | Home Team | Starter | Road Team | Road Starter | Home Team Wins | Road Team Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/29 | Braves | Max Fried | Phillies | Aaron Nola | 53.0% | 47.0% |
| 9/30 | Braves | Ian Anderson | Phillies | Kyle Gibson | 57.7% | 42.3% |
| 10/1 | Braves | Huascar Ynoa | Mets | Rich Hill | 57.4% | 42.6% |
| 10/1 | Marlins | Sandy Alcantara | Phillies | Ranger Suárez | 48.0% | 52.0% |
| 10/2 | Braves | Jesse Chavez | Mets | Carlos Carrasco | 55.3% | 44.7% |
| 10/2 | Marlins | Jesús Luzardo | Phillies | Hans Crouse | 50.1% | 49.9% |
| 10/3 | Braves | Charlie Morton | Mets | Marcus Stroman | 61.8% | 38.2% |
| 10/3 | Marlins | Trevor Rogers | Phillies | Zack Wheeler | 42.3% | 57.7% |
| 10/4 | Braves | Max Fried | Rockies | Kyle Freeland | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| 10/5 | Phillies | Aaron Nola | Braves | Ian Anderson | 51.4% | 48.6% |
NL West
Not much has changed here, with both the Dodgers and Giants guaranteed to make the playoffs and both winning on Tuesday night. Unfortunately for Los Angeles, nothing changing is bad news, as the calendar is San Francisco’s ally right now. The Dodgers win outright 3.4% of the time, the Giants 87.9%, and the Giants have a slight projected edge in the tiebreaker. ZiPS has the race right now as Giants 92.5%, Dodgers 7.5%:
| Day | Home Team | Starter | Road Team | Road Starter | Home Team Wins | Road Team Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/29 | Dodgers | Max Scherzer | Padres | Ryan Weathers | 60.9% | 39.1% |
| 9/29 | Giants | Alex Wood | Diamondbacks | Merrill Kelly 켈리 | 64.3% | 35.7% |
| 9/30 | Dodgers | Tony Gonsolin | Padres | Vince Velasquez | 58.9% | 41.1% |
| 9/30 | Giants | Johnny Cueto | Diamondbacks | Madison Bumgarner | 68.4% | 31.6% |
| 10/1 | Dodgers | Clayton Kershaw | Brewers | Eric Lauer | 62.7% | 37.3% |
| 10/1 | Giants | Anthony DeSclafani | Padres | Joe Musgrove | 56.4% | 43.6% |
| 10/2 | Dodgers | Julio Urías | Brewers | Corbin Burnes | 50.5% | 49.5% |
| 10/2 | Giants | Kevin Gausman | Padres | Nabil Crismatt | 63.0% | 37.0% |
| 10/3 | Dodgers | Walker Buehler | Brewers | Freddy Peralta | 58.1% | 41.9% |
| 10/3 | Giants | Logan Webb | Padres | Reiss Knehr | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| 10/4 | Giants | Alex Wood | Dodgers | Max Scherzer | 53.3% | 46.7% |
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
That’s crazy to me that the Red Sox have a 61.4% chance of winning in a Houck/Rogers matchup but only a 58.5% in a Sale/Gray math-up.
Full-fat ZIPS is super-stoked on Houck and still a little worried about Sale from pre-injury.
Thanks for the explanation, Dan. Also, I didn’t mean to say math-up but I guess that works to. Feel free to use that.
I like math-up.
After all, I’m also must be one of the few people to say “Let’s Monte Carlo the fuck out of this shit” in an academic setting.
Plus platoon splits favor the Houck game; ZiPS sees Red Sox hitters platoon split right now as narrower in projection while Marlins as large as it is.