ZiPS Stretch Run Updates for 9/29

by
September 29, 2021

A few days ago, I wrote about projections and the stretch run, using ZiPS to project each individual game and estimate its relative importance for the final standings. With just a few games remaining, most have the potential to drastically swing the disposition of the race. For example, the Mariners saw their playoff probability quintuple with last night’s win over the A’s! Let’s break down the latest and greatest.

AL Wild Card

This one is still very wide open, with the main difference from 48 hours ago being that the Mariners have pushed the A’s to the brink of elimination. Oakland can still make the playoffs, but the path is narrow and would require Oakland to win three or four games while Toronto, Boston, and Seattle mostly lose, and then perhaps survive a tiebreaker. Oakland can no longer catch the Yankees, so it’s in the A’s interest for the Yankees to finish a sweep of the Jays:

ZiPS Playoff Drive Projections – AL Wild Cards
Day Home Team Starter Road Team Road Starter Home Team Wins Road Team Wins
9/29 Orioles Zac Lowther Red Sox Nathan Eovaldi 31.6% 68.4%
9/29 Blue Jays José Berríos Yankees Gerrit Cole 51.2% 48.8%
9/29 Mariners Logan Gilbert Athletics Frankie Montas 45.6% 54.4%
9/30 Orioles Alexander Wells Red Sox Nick Pivetta 31.6% 68.4%
9/30 Blue Jays Robbie Ray Yankees Corey Kluber 56.4% 43.6%
10/1 Blue Jays Alek Manoah Orioles Spenser Watkins 72.3% 27.7%
10/1 Nationals Erick Fedde Red Sox Eduardo Rodriguez 47.2% 52.8%
10/1 Yankees Néstor Cortes Jr. Rays Luis Patiño 55.2% 44.8%
10/1 Mariners Marco Gonzales Angels José Suarez 47.8% 52.2%
10/1 Astros Zack Greinke Athletics Sean Manaea 57.4% 42.6%
10/2 Blue Jays Steven Matz Orioles John Means 62.4% 37.6%
10/2 Nationals Josh Rogers Red Sox Tanner Houck 38.6% 61.4%
10/2 Yankees Jordan Montgomery Rays Shane McClanahan 54.3% 45.7%
10/2 Mariners Chris Flexen Angels Jhonathan Diaz 51.7% 48.3%
10/2 Astros Framber Valdez Athletics Paul Blackburn 64.7% 35.3%
10/3 Blue Jays Hyun Jin Ryu Orioles Bruce Zimmermann 65.7% 34.3%
10/3 Nationals Josiah Gray Red Sox Chris Sale 41.5% 58.5%
10/3 Yankees Jameson Taillon Rays Shane Baz 45.7% 54.3%
10/3 Mariners Tyler Anderson Angels Shohei Ohtani 39.6% 60.4%
10/3 Astros Jake Odorizzi Athletics Cole Irvin 63.8% 36.2%

ZiPS Playoff Drive Projections – AL Wild Card Standings
Team Wild Card 1 Wild Card 2 Playoffs
New York 74.1% 17.9% 92.0%
Boston 17.4% 49.7% 67.1%
Toronto 6.4% 18.4% 24.7%
Seattle 2.1% 14.0% 16.1%
Oakland 0.0% 0.01% 0.01%

ZiPS Playoff Drive Projections – Changes in Playoff Projections
Scenario BOS NYY TOR SEA OAK
Boston Beats Washington on Friday 12.7% -1.6% -6.0% -5.1% 0.0%
Boston Beats Washington on Sunday 11.1% -1.4% -5.3% -4.5% 0.0%
Boston Beats Washington on Saturday 10.6% -1.4% -5.0% -4.2% 0.0%
Boston Beats Baltimore on Thursday 9.1% -1.1% -4.4% -3.6% 0.0%
Boston Beats Baltimore on Wednesday 8.4% -1.2% -3.9% -3.3% 0.0%
Baltimore Beats Toronto on Friday 7.6% 2.8% -13.8% 3.4% 0.0%
Baltimore Beats Toronto on Sunday 7.3% 2.8% -13.2% 3.1% 0.0%
Baltimore Beats Toronto on Saturday 7.0% 2.5% -12.5% 3.1% 0.0%
New York Beats Toronto on Thursday 5.5% 6.7% -13.9% 1.7% 0.0%
Los Angeles Beats Seattle on Saturday 5.2% 1.4% 2.6% -9.2% 0.0%
Los Angeles Beats Seattle on Friday 5.0% 1.3% 2.4% -8.7% 0.0%
New York Beats Toronto on Wednesday 5.0% 6.6% -13.1% 1.5% 0.0%
Oakland Beats Seattle on Wednesday 4.8% 1.3% 2.4% -8.5% 0.0%
Los Angeles Beats Seattle on Sunday 4.3% 1.1% 2.3% -7.8% 0.0%
Tampa Bay Beats New York on Saturday 2.0% -5.8% 2.4% 1.4% 0.0%
Tampa Bay Beats New York on Friday 2.0% -5.8% 2.7% 1.1% 0.0%
Tampa Bay Beats New York on Sunday 1.5% -4.5% 2.1% 0.9% 0.0%
Oakland Beats Houston on Saturday 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oakland Beats Houston on Friday 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Houston Beats Oakland on Friday 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Houston Beats Oakland on Saturday 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Houston Beats Oakland on Sunday 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oakland Beats Houston on Sunday 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New York Beats Tampa Bay on Friday -1.2% 4.5% -2.0% -1.3% 0.0%
New York Beats Tampa Bay on Saturday -1.3% 4.6% -2.0% -1.3% 0.0%
New York Beats Tampa Bay on Sunday -1.4% 5.0% -2.2% -1.3% 0.0%
Toronto Beats Baltimore on Friday -3.1% -1.3% 5.8% -1.4% 0.0%
Toronto Beats Baltimore on Sunday -4.0% -1.5% 7.4% -1.8% 0.0%
Toronto Beats Baltimore on Saturday -4.2% -1.7% 7.8% -1.8% 0.0%
Toronto Beats New York on Thursday -4.6% -5.4% 11.4% -1.3% 0.0%
Seattle Beats Los Angeles on Saturday -4.7% -1.2% -2.6% 8.5% 0.0%
Toronto Beats New York on Wednesday -5.2% -6.3% 13.2% -1.8% 0.0%
Seattle Beats Los Angeles on Friday -5.2% -1.2% -2.9% 9.4% 0.0%
Seattle Beats Oakland on Wednesday -5.5% -1.5% -3.1% 10.1% 0.0%
Seatle Beats Los Angeles on Sunday -7.1% -1.7% -3.3% 12.2% 0.0%
Washington Beats Boston on Friday -13.9% 1.6% 6.6% 5.6% 0.0%
Washington Beats Boston on Sunday -15.8% 1.7% 7.5% 6.6% 0.0%
Washington Beats Boston on Saturday -16.4% 2.0% 8.1% 6.3% 0.0%
Baltimore Beats Boston on Thursday -18.6% 2.0% 9.3% 7.3% 0.0%
Baltimore Beats Boston on Wednesday -18.7% 2.1% 9.2% 7.4% 0.0%

ZiPS Playoff Drive Projections – Game Leverage
Game Leverage
Baltimore vs. Boston on Thursday 0.28
Baltimore vs. Boston on Wednesday 0.27
Washington vs. Boston on Saturday 0.27
Washington vs. Boston on Sunday 0.27
Washington vs. Boston on Friday 0.27
Toronto vs. New York on Wednesday 0.26
Toronto vs. New York on Thursday 0.25
Toronto vs. Baltimore on Sunday 0.21
Toronto vs. Baltimore on Saturday 0.20
Seatle vs. Los Angeles on Sunday 0.20
Toronto vs. Baltimore on Friday 0.20
Seattle vs. Oakland on Wednesday 0.19
Seattle vs. Los Angeles on Friday 0.18
Seattle vs. Los Angeles on Saturday 0.18
New York vs. Tampa Bay on Saturday 0.10
New York vs. Tampa Bay on Friday 0.10
New York vs. Tampa Bay on Sunday 0.10
Houston vs. Oakland on Saturday 0.00
Houston vs. Oakland on Sunday 0.00
Houston vs. Oakland on Friday 0.00

The Mariners winning again was a boost to Team Entropy. There’s now a 32.2% projected chance of at least one tiebreaker game: 25.5% of a three-way tiebreaker, 6.7% of a four-way, and 0.04% of full-on chaos mode.

NL East

The Braves won the first game of their three-game set, leaving the Phillies 3 1/2 games back with just five to play. Losses for Philadelphia are brutal at this point, with Atlanta now holding a 93.7% chance of winning outright. The odds of the Phillies winning without the Braves playing their makeup game against the Rockies are down to 0.2%, and the Phillies get most of their playoff spots in the simulations in which they force the play-in; the Braves are only a slight favorite over the Rockies and the Phillies at home are favored over Atlanta. All told, it’s 97.7% Atlanta and 2.3% Philadelphia, a long-shot for the Phils but still plausible. The Phillies get a boost here by getting to play the Braves two more times:

ZiPS Playoff Drive Projections – NL East
Day Home Team Starter Road Team Road Starter Home Team Wins Road Team Wins
9/29 Braves Max Fried Phillies Aaron Nola 53.0% 47.0%
9/30 Braves Ian Anderson Phillies Kyle Gibson 57.7% 42.3%
10/1 Braves Huascar Ynoa Mets Rich Hill 57.4% 42.6%
10/1 Marlins Sandy Alcantara Phillies Ranger Suárez 48.0% 52.0%
10/2 Braves Jesse Chavez Mets Carlos Carrasco 55.3% 44.7%
10/2 Marlins Jesús Luzardo Phillies Hans Crouse 50.1% 49.9%
10/3 Braves Charlie Morton Mets Marcus Stroman 61.8% 38.2%
10/3 Marlins Trevor Rogers Phillies Zack Wheeler 42.3% 57.7%
10/4 Braves Max Fried Rockies Kyle Freeland 54.5% 45.5%
10/5 Phillies Aaron Nola Braves Ian Anderson 51.4% 48.6%

NL West

Not much has changed here, with both the Dodgers and Giants guaranteed to make the playoffs and both winning on Tuesday night. Unfortunately for Los Angeles, nothing changing is bad news, as the calendar is San Francisco’s ally right now. The Dodgers win outright 3.4% of the time, the Giants 87.9%, and the Giants have a slight projected edge in the tiebreaker. ZiPS has the race right now as Giants 92.5%, Dodgers 7.5%:

ZiPS Playoff Drive Projections – NL West
Day Home Team Starter Road Team Road Starter Home Team Wins Road Team Wins
9/29 Dodgers Max Scherzer Padres Ryan Weathers 60.9% 39.1%
9/29 Giants Alex Wood Diamondbacks Merrill Kelly 켈리 64.3% 35.7%
9/30 Dodgers Tony Gonsolin Padres Vince Velasquez 58.9% 41.1%
9/30 Giants Johnny Cueto Diamondbacks Madison Bumgarner 68.4% 31.6%
10/1 Dodgers Clayton Kershaw Brewers Eric Lauer 62.7% 37.3%
10/1 Giants Anthony DeSclafani Padres Joe Musgrove 56.4% 43.6%
10/2 Dodgers Julio Urías Brewers Corbin Burnes 50.5% 49.5%
10/2 Giants Kevin Gausman Padres Nabil Crismatt 63.0% 37.0%
10/3 Dodgers Walker Buehler Brewers Freddy Peralta 58.1% 41.9%
10/3 Giants Logan Webb Padres Reiss Knehr 66.7% 33.3%
10/4 Giants Alex Wood Dodgers Max Scherzer 53.3% 46.7%





 

Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

12 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Uncle Spikemember
2 years ago

That’s crazy to me that the Red Sox have a 61.4% chance of winning in a Houck/Rogers matchup but only a 58.5% in a Sale/Gray math-up.

0
Dan Szymborskimember
2 years ago
Reply to  Uncle Spike

Full-fat ZIPS is super-stoked on Houck and still a little worried about Sale from pre-injury.

3
Uncle Spikemember
2 years ago
Reply to  Dan Szymborski

Thanks for the explanation, Dan. Also, I didn’t mean to say math-up but I guess that works to. Feel free to use that.

1
Dan Szymborskimember
2 years ago
Reply to  Uncle Spike

I like math-up.

After all, I’m also must be one of the few people to say “Let’s Monte Carlo the fuck out of this shit” in an academic setting.

5
Dan Szymborskimember
2 years ago
Reply to  Dan Szymborski

Plus platoon splits favor the Houck game; ZiPS sees Red Sox hitters platoon split right now as narrower in projection while Marlins as large as it is.

3