ZiPS Updated Playoff Probabilities – 2018 World Series
The ZiPS projection system will update these tables after every game and as the starting-pitcher probables change. They are based on the up-to-date ZiPS projections of the strengths of the teams and the projected starting pitchers. They are different than the playoff odds that appear elsewhere at this site. The FanGraphs playoff probabilities are based on 10,000 simulations using the updated projections in the depth charts. Where ZiPS differs is by guessing the game-by-game starting-pitcher matchups and using the ZiPS projections, including split projections.
First, here are the game-by-game probabilities:
| Game | Home Team | Boston Starter | Red Sox Win | Los Angeles Starter | Dodgers Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Red Sox | Chris Sale | 100.0% | Clayton Kershaw | 0.0% |
| 2 | Red Sox | David Price | 100.0% | Hyun-Jin Ryu | 0.0% |
| 3 | Dodgers | Rick Porcello | 0.0% | Walker Buehler | 100.0% |
| 4 | Dodgers | Eduardo Rodriguez | 100.0% | Rich Hill | 0.0% |
| 5 | Dodgers | Short-Rest David Price | 39.1% | Clayton Kershaw | 60.9% |
| 6 | Red Sox | Chris Sale | 60.6% | Hyun-Jin Ryu? | 39.4% |
| 7 | Red Sox | Nathan Eovaldi? | 54.8% | Walker Buehler? | 45.2% |
And here are the overall series probabilities.
| Result | Probability |
|---|---|
| Red Sox over Dodgers in 4 | 0.0% |
| Red Sox over Dodgers in 5 | 39.1% |
| Red Sox over Dodgers in 6 | 36.9% |
| Red Sox over Dodgers in 7 | 13.2% |
| Dodgers over Red Sox in 4 | 0.0% |
| Dodgers over Red Sox in 5 | 0.0% |
| Dodgers over Red Sox in 6 | 0.0% |
| Dodgers over Red Sox in 7 | 10.8% |
| Red Sox Win | 89.2% |
| Dodgers Win | 10.8% |
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
This is pretty interesting, ZIPS basically favors the Dodgers because of the Porcello vs Hill @ LA matchup, with everything else a coinflip.
And even though thin margins, the Red Sox are favored in 5 of the 7 games.