ZiPS Updated Playoff Probabilities – 2018 World Series
The ZiPS projection system will update these tables after every game and as the starting-pitcher probables change. They are based on the up-to-date ZiPS projections of the strengths of the teams and the projected starting pitchers. They are different than the playoff odds that appear elsewhere at this site. The FanGraphs playoff probabilities are based on 10,000 simulations using the updated projections in the depth charts. Where ZiPS differs is by guessing the game-by-game starting-pitcher matchups and using the ZiPS projections, including split projections.
First, here are the game-by-game probabilities:
| Game | Home Team | Boston Starter | Red Sox Win | Los Angeles Starter | Dodgers Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Red Sox | Chris Sale | 100.0% | Clayton Kershaw | 0.0% |
| 2 | Red Sox | David Price | 100.0% | Hyun-Jin Ryu | 0.0% |
| 3 | Dodgers | Rick Porcello | 0.0% | Walker Buehler | 100.0% |
| 4 | Dodgers | Eduardo Rodriguez | 100.0% | Rich Hill | 0.0% |
| 5 | Dodgers | Short-Rest David Price | 39.1% | Clayton Kershaw | 60.9% |
| 6 | Red Sox | Chris Sale | 60.6% | Hyun-Jin Ryu? | 39.4% |
| 7 | Red Sox | Nathan Eovaldi? | 54.8% | Walker Buehler? | 45.2% |
And here are the overall series probabilities.
| Result | Probability |
|---|---|
| Red Sox over Dodgers in 4 | 0.0% |
| Red Sox over Dodgers in 5 | 39.1% |
| Red Sox over Dodgers in 6 | 36.9% |
| Red Sox over Dodgers in 7 | 13.2% |
| Dodgers over Red Sox in 4 | 0.0% |
| Dodgers over Red Sox in 5 | 0.0% |
| Dodgers over Red Sox in 6 | 0.0% |
| Dodgers over Red Sox in 7 | 10.8% |
| Red Sox Win | 89.2% |
| Dodgers Win | 10.8% |
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
This is pretty interesting, ZIPS basically favors the Dodgers because of the Porcello vs Hill @ LA matchup, with everything else a coinflip.
And even though thin margins, the Red Sox are favored in 5 of the 7 games.
Where will they advance to?
Disneyland, duh
Heaven or Las Vegas
Solar Series vs the Mars Champ.. and you thought Coors had thin air!
why the big difference between game 1 sale v. kershaw and game 5 sale vs. kershaw?
Game 1 is in Boston, Game 5 is in LA.
Ah.
I have no dog in this fight (though the Red Sox have plenty of recent WS titles so I’ll be holding my nose and cheering for the Dirty Machados I guess). Really, I’m just pulling for the “in 7” outcome, because winter is coming. Can I just add the probabilities and conclude there’s a better than 30% chance it goes to 7?
Aside: remember when there was so much skepticism about the Dodgers-to-WS projections that Craig Edwards had to explain Why the Dodgers World Series Odds Are So High? (Of course, they came within maybe one Chris Taylor catch of not making it: projections are not destiny).
Does this take into account that Sale and Kershaw would likely be available to pitch out of the bullpen in a game 7?
This feels closer than the 538 projection (which was 60/40 BOS); wonder if Sawchik was involved on that? Any idea how these methodologies compare?
538s method uses a modified ELO which isnt as kind to a team that underperforms their run differential like the regular season Dodgers did.
This Dodgers team had a better run differential than last years 104 win team. 538 doesnt see them as equivalent
I also wonder how much that projection accounted for in-season adjustments. The sputtering Dodgers of the first half were a significantly different (and worse) lineup than the post-trade-deadline team that added Machado, and — unlike the playoff version — didn’t feature full contributions from Buehler, Kershaw, and Jansen
Thanks!
On Buster Olney’s podcast, they mentioned that the team that wins the first game of the WS has won the series 63% of the time. So it looks like Dan’s projection is right in line with history.
Red Sox fan and critic here. They have lots of weaknesses, but the simple fact is they clobber NL teams. LA is a NL team. It doesn’t hurt that Cora is making better decisions than Roberts. Or perhaps it is that he’s choosing to make fewer decisions than Roberts.
Dan, could you do a ZiPS look at the decision to bring Eovaldi in? For example, could you do a 2×2 graph of using/not using by winning/losing and the effects on the projections ?(assuming they say brought in Pomeranz and Eovaldi starts game 4 if he doesn’t come in)
Also double short rest Sale is that well favored vs Buehler? That seems funky to me
E-rod will start Game 4.
Put me down for LA to win.
I think looking at it- Red Sox were brilliant in starting Rodriguez today. Could have pulled him a bit sooner but still- good decision in the start. Now they get Sale, Price, and quite conceivably Eovaldi in game 7.
Sox have won a couple of games where the other team was pretty favored – Price vs Verlander and Hill vs Rodriguez. Kershaw/Price should be a win for LA, but I dunno that it will be. I guess if they can keep Mookie and Xander cold, that will help them a lot.
Um, why is Price starting game 5 while Sale is starting game 6 instead of the other way around? Price not only started more recently, he pitched 0.2 innings in relief in game 3.
Health concerns
I think i’ll go out on a limb and say the decision worked out for Boston.
I feel like after a guy has nearly an entire season of average performance in the postseason one can expect him to be an average pitcher in the postseason. No?