Is Elvis Andrus Still Valuable?
Over the summer at ESPN and FG+, I wrote a piece that investigated just how terribly the recent trend of long-term extensions for players at least two years away from free agency had gone. While Ryan Howard was the obvious poster boy for “Wow, that was a bad idea,” the future deals given to Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Braun, Joey Votto, Justin Verlander, Evan Longoria and others all look a little questionable now, either because of unexpected decline/injury in the period between the signing and the actual start date, or because of how much payroll space it’s taking up. Not all have gone badly — Felix Hernandez and Troy Tulowitzki have been worthwhile investments — but many have, and that’s without even knowing what’s going to happen when Miguel Cabrera’s eight-year extension kicks off in 2016.
Teams can’t exactly always wait until precisely one minute before free agency to give extensions to valuable players, but giving out these deals so far ahead of time is such a hugely risky proposition, because so much can go wrong, both on and off the field. Organizations may be buying the security of knowing that their player can’t walk away in the near future, but they’re trading off the very valuable ability to gain an extra year or two of information on that player, and it’s easy to see that some of these deals never would have been signed if the teams knew at the time what they knew when the original contract would have ended.
It’s with all that in mind that today I’m interested in looking at a youthful and valuable shortstop who is just about to start an eight-year extension he agreed to with his team two seasons ago. Texas’ Elvis Andrus is only 26, but he’s also coming off the two worst wOBA years of his career, years that came after ink hit paper. Is this contract doomed to sink the Rangers? Or is he still a valuable asset?
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This is coming up now because there’s a few big-market teams that need a shortstop this winter — Yankees, Dodgers, Mets, perhaps the Red Sox if they whiff on Pablo Sandoval and slide Xander Bogaerts back over — and with J.J. Hardy already extended in Baltimore, there’s very few acceptable free agent options at the position. No, really: Just go look at our Free Agent Depth Charts. You’ll see a few guys with acceptable-to-great bats who aren’t plus defenders (Hanley Ramirez, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jed Lowrie), and a better fielder who just sat out half the year and had a 44 wRC+ (Stephen Drew).
That being the case, and because the Rangers have both many holes to fill and young infield depth in Jurickson Profar, Rougned Odor, and Luis Sardinas, Andrus has been popping up in trade rumors, being connected most notably to the Yankees. This weekend, GM Jon Daniels didn’t shoot down talk of a deal, and listed out exactly what Texas needed to fix, noting that a trade was the most likely scenario:
Jon Daniels said that they will “listen” on Elvis Andrus because of their depth including Luis Sardines, Jurrickson Profar and Odor XM 89
— Jim Bowden (@JimBowden_ESPN) November 16, 2014
Jon Daniels said #Rangers needs are Starting Pitcher, Catcher, LF or DH…more likely solved by trade than FA @MLBNetworkRadio — Jim Bowden (@JimBowden_ESPN) November 16, 2014
First, let’s remember why the Andrus extension seemed to make sense in the first place — because he was young (2016 is only his age-26 season), because he was an elite fielder, a very good base runner, incredibly durable, and close to a league-average hitter. It’s difficult to find all of that in one package, so while the dollar amount was shocking, the thought behind it wasn’t.
At the time, Dave Cameron wrote here that the deal was a good example of teams learning to value defense more than they had in the past. Daniels said it was “something we didn’t normally do,” because of Andrus’ youth. Before this season, when the Rangers were ranked No. 4 in our shortstop positional power rankings, I noted his down 2013, but pointed out just how hard it was to find a good shortstop, saying “If “eh, he’s not terrible at the plate” sounds like less than high praise, well, he’s still doing enough good things elsewhere to rank No. 4 here. (Related: Just wait until we’re talking about Pedro Florimon or someone below, and then think about how great Andrus looks.)”
So, yes, the deal was certainly defensible at the time, because Andrus had just put up back-to-back four-win seasons and was young enough to think more would come. Here’s the bad news: all of Andrus’ important offensive trends, particularly since.
Since 2010, Andrus’ walk rate has decreased every year, and for a player without much power, that’s a problem. In 2011-12, when he was at least able to show some small amount of pop and get his slugging into the .360-.370 range, that wasn’t such a big deal. In 2013-14, when he’s slugged .332, walked less than ever, and made less contact, it does present a problem. Unsurprisingly, the first year of these five (75 wRC+) look a lot more like the last two (79, 79) than do the middle two of 2011-12 (93, 97).
A roughly league-average offensive shortstop with plus defensive skills is a star, and that’s why his WAR in those big two seasons were 4.4 and 4.4 A below-average offensive shortstop with plus defensive skills is still worthwhile, hence Andrus’ 2.8 WAR in 2013. A below-average offensive shortstop with declining defensive skills, well, that’s a problem, and it’s why WAR saw Andrus at just 1.3 in 2014.
Let’s acknowledge the usual cautions about single-year defensive stats, and note how he ranks in our “Defense” metric, which includes not only a player’s performance, but is adjusted for position.
2010: 8.2
2011: 13.9
2012: 14.7
2013: 10.1
2014; 2.1
A September ESPN report attempted to explain why:
In 2014, he’s played with five different second basemen and had to expand his range in the outfield with left fielder Shin-Soo Choo’s sprained ankle limiting his range. He’s even had to go further to center field because of the early struggles of Leonys Martin.
At the plate, Andrus’ runs scored (67), hits (146), RBIs (34) and OBP (.315) are down. He’s hit into a career-high 20 double plays. He’s been caught stealing an AL-leading 13 times. Andrus has battled through inflammation in his right elbow, something that’s been bothering him since spring training. The discomfort comes and goes, and he really needs rest.
We have spray charts, so let’s investigate that claim of needing to expand his range. At left, we have Andrus’ made plays (in green) and missed (in red) from 2013; at right, the same for 2014:
Maybe it’s not out of the question that there’s something to that. Looking at the ‘made plays,’ it wasn’t so nearly as clustered this year as last (although some of that is likely due to increased shifting by the team). The ‘missed plays’ in 2013 were mainly your typical infield singles and occasional errors; in 2014, he was all over the field trying to get to balls. While his Range Runs had slightly declined from 11.2 to 7.8 to 4.9 in the previous three years, it plummeted to -5.1 in 2014.
Perhaps you think that it’s a flaw in the defensive stats, saying that Andrus was unfairly penalized for the shortcomings of his teammates, and I won’t rule that out completely, but that’s also not it by itself. As the quote above shows, Andrus was dealing with a sore right shoulder all season long, which isn’t ideal for a shortstop; as the quote linked here shows, Andrus reportedly showed up to camp overweight and was “uncomfortable” with it late in the year. Considering that his BsR and his Speed score both declined this year, and he led the AL in times caught stealing, it’s easy to wonder if the 2014 Andrus just wasn’t getting to balls that the 2012 version would have. (He’s reportedly focusing on losing weight this winter.)
Looking ahead to 2015, Steamer likes Andrus for a rebound, projecting an 87 wRC+ and better defense, good for a three-win season. If a winter of rest helps with his arm, and if he’s dedicated to conditioning as he says, perhaps that helps the defense and base running bounce back. I can’t say I’m as optimistic for the bat, however. Andrus’ swing rates really haven’t changed all that much, other than the fact that pitchers are throwing him fewer strikes and he’s not swinging less. The little power he showed two years ago has disappeared, and he doesn’t walk. It’s not great when “but he’s young” is the best hope you have for a hitter.
Still, the biggest issue with the contract is the length, because while $15 million annually for the next six years (and $14 million for two after that) sounds like a ton, it’s really not. It’s barely more than the qualifying offer. It’s paying him like slightly less than a three-win player, and that valuation will only turn in the team’s favor as the cost of a win likely continues to rise over the next few years. Even the length might not be so bad, because Andrus has opt-outs after both 2018 (his age-29 season) and 2019 (30).
If Andrus were a free agent this winter, as he would have been if not for the extension, he’d likely still get something close to that average annual value, just for not as many years. This hasn’t worked out the way Texas hoped it would have, expecting that a young player could maintain or improve with the bat rather than regress. But while the contract makes his trade value minimal unless the Rangers were to pick up an enormous amount of it, it’s not entirely the millstone it might seem to be. After all, it only takes a small rebound for him to once again be an above-average player at a position that’s difficult to fill. The Rangers just might have wished they waited another year to hand out that extension.
Mike Petriello used to write here, and now he does not. Find him at @mike_petriello or MLB.com.
I’m not sure I’d lump in Longoria’s contract with the rest. Even with a down year offensively, dude was still worth three and a half wins and is controlled through 2022 for $118MM. Give him Steamer’s projection for 2014 and the average .5 WAR decline rate and that contract still carries tens of millions of dollars of surplus value, and that’s assuming he won’t ever post another seven win season. Guy is only 29.
Fair enough, but his inclusion was less about his mysterious down 2014 — though that is concerning — and more about the fact that his extension doesn’t even start until 2017. So much can happen between now and then.
I’m with Mike on this one. It’s not easy to just give him his steamer projection, which is a full 2 wins over what he did last year. What if he puts up another 3.5 win season, instead of 5.5 wins? Or what if he declines further? If they signed him to a contract after next season (1 year from free agency), there would be a lot more certainty about whether 2014 was a sign of things to come, or a blip in the radar.
The idea that the contract extension is available at the end of 2015 is laughable.
In yesterday’s podcast Kiley mentioned that defensive struggles could lead to decreased performance at the plate, similar to the DH penalty. I wonder if this is affecting Andrus at all.
I thought the whole premise of these pre-FA extensions was to extract a discount. I think once the players realized that they were locking themselves into management friendly contracts, and that pre-FA extensions weren’t going away, they just starting giving out less of a discount. With the most recent extensions, Andrus and Votto, basically giving out zero discount.
For Giancarlo, I get he’s a valuable player, but if you’re going to lock him into a 10 year, $300 million dollar contract or something crazy, just wait til free-agency, you’ll likely be able to pay the exact same amount or maybe you’ll pay a lot less.
I think there’s a bit of a circular thing going on here. As more of the top younger players get locked up into long-term deals, the quality of free-agent pools gets diminished, all while baseball revenues increase. So there’s a real chance that the inflation factor for free-agent signings could skyrocket, meaning Stanton could command $35-40 million per year in 2017, especially if the next best FA option is someone like Jose Tabata.
But if the Marlins lock up Stanton, the pool of potential high-end free agents gets way worse. I can only imagine what Bryce Harper will get as a FA if he can stay healthy.
Let’s see the details of the deal. I suspect it’s back loaded, and the Marlins are just as happy to give the opt out as Stanton is to have one. The Marlins will want him to trip it in five or six years before the decline begins. If the deal is structured properly, the Marlins will pay less money than they would in arbitration, and he’ll be off to some other team in his 30s.
I thought the premise was to end the contract earlier. If you wait until he’s a free agent, you might have to sign him until he’s 37 or 38. If you give a player a monster deal a few years before free agency, you can sign him until he’s maybe 34 or 35, so you don’t have as many albatross years.
In an article earlier this week, a player mentioned that the infields in Miami and Texas are especially fast. I wonder if this could cause Andrus and Hechavarria to be underrated by UZR or DRS. I’m not sure how those get adjusted for differences in ballparks.
Mike, I would argue that classifying the Mets as one of a few “big-market teams” in need of a shortstop is unfortunately not exactly accurate.
The Mets are domiciled in the country’s biggest media market but they have no intention of having a payroll near the top of the league as they reduced payroll to somewhere in the range of the middle (upper level) to the top of the bottom third (lower level) of the league as soon as possible after the Madoff Ponzi scheme hit the Wilpons and have not deviated from that range since.
I think the clear implication when you write that the Mets are a “big-market team” is that they, like the Yankees, Dodgers, and Red Sox, are big spenders, but again that is unfortunately not true.
In this connection part of the reason the Mets have curtailed spending is because of the settlement payments the Wilpons have contractually agreed to pay the Madoff trustee for subsequent distribution to victims of the Ponzi scheme; this article below as well as other articles indicate the Wilpons still owe $80 million due in two installments in 2016 and 2017:
http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/mets/post/_/id/85918/wilpons-madoff-settlement-down-to-80m-2
Man, that’s almost as much as they still owe me!
seems perfectly accurate. NYC is a big market? check. Mets need a SS? check.
Well, the Mets are a “big market” team, even if their ownership is financially incompetent and their budget resembles a small-market team’s.
Some awesome baseball writing right here. Thanks for focusing on actual baseball and not fan interest, ticket sales, and TV markets like some folks.
So don’t read those articles, arse
Andrus’ game is built on quickness and speed, so it has to be at least a bit concerning that it appears the core his game is deteriorating while he’s only 26. That said, he’s about 20 pounds heavier than when he was a rookie, so dropping that weight might help him regain that lost step in the field and on the bases. If the Rangers, who know his medicals and conditioning better than anyone, believe Andrus is a good rebound candidate, it’s to their advantage to have him remain with the team in 2015 and then put him on the market next year. That will also give them a year to assess Profar’s health.
“Even the length might not be so bad, because Andrus has opt-outs”
Opt-outs do not benefit a team in contract length. Opt-outs only have a potential benefit to the team if salary is backloaded in the contract (and only then if the player outplays the contract). They are nearly all risk. If the player is good the team does not benifit, and if the player is bad the team does not benefit.
Was going to post the same thing. As long as you assume the player is represented by someone other than a complete idiot, an opt-out can never be beneficial. Either you want the length, because he’s good, but he opts out, or you want to get rid of him, because he’s bad, but he keeps the guaranteed money.
Of course there can be benefit to a team, most likely in a reduction of total guaranteed money in the contract. Teams wouldn’t allow them into contracts if there weren’t potential benefits for them.
Well that’s not true at all! Teams allow plenty into contracts that have no benefit to them. Paying a player has no benefit to a team, but that happens all the time. It’s a negotiation, and opt-outs are hugely valuable to the player and not very valuable to the team, just like less guaranteed money is valuable to the team and not to the player.
Costanza, you are always playing devil’s advocate in these posts but many times your posts are disingenuous.
The clear implication in referring to the Mets as a big market team is that they have the purchasing power to absorb Andrus’s salary.
The fact is that they do not when their payroll is considered vis-a-vis all other teams over the past five years or so.
Andrus isn’t even the worst contract on his own team – that’d be Mr. Soo Choo. Actually he isn’t even the second worst contract – that’d be the ironically-named Mr. Fielder. $15m AAV for a player capable of fielding the shortstop position with reasonable effectiveness, stealing 30 to 40 bases, drawing walks 7% to 8% of the time, who doesn’t strike out too often… doesn’t seem outrageous to me.
As you pointed out, the AAV isn’t the problem, the length of the deal seems troubling in hindsight. But Anrus has a track record as a 2 to 4 WAR player (with the exception of 2014) and he is only 26 years old. It is reasonable to think the Rangers will get at least $120 million in value from Andrus over the next 8 years.
He does not have a ton of excess value, but his contract should not be in any way a disaster.
But the thing is, it isn’t just whether or not the contract is appropriate for his production, because the cost of acquiring a player in a trade is more than just the money on their contract. You also have to consider the players that you have to trade in order to get the deal done. And when you consider that, aiming for 4-5 free agent years of Asdrubal or Lowrie may seem like a more compelling option than, say, a big league pitcher and a good prospect for 8 market rate years of Andrus.
Interesting, Stefan Drew is listed both on the Free Agent depth chart and on they Yankee’s depth chart.
Andrus has no doubt peaked. His best years are gone.
Defense and speed peaks early.
Power peaks later, but Andrus has no power. going from 4 to 5 HRs isn’t gonna help much.
I want to know whats going on with that ball he apparently missed at the outfield wall in right-center field!!! I just love the idea of him sprinting when the bat hits the ball at a 4.1 40 yard pace, screaming at Leonys Martin and Alex Rios that its his play, and then ultimately having it bounce off the tip of his glove at the warning track. it would be the most “2014 Rangers” play of all time.
The missed RCF and made RF play are begging for a Jeff Sullivan post. Dear Jeff, please take me to GIF heaven.
“The ‘missed plays’ in 2013 were mainly your typical infield singles and occasional errors.”
On my screen, there’s no scatter in the infield that would indicate any plays made or missed in the shallow infield. I do have him missing a play right near the wall in right centerfield, so it seems the spray is showing up too high on the field image. Anyone know the source of the problem? I’ve tried reloading Chrome and popping the image into its own window. No effect.
Remember when Dave Cameron thought these were all an amazing idea? Perhaps you can buy him a finance class at the local community college.
Dave likes the idea of paying big for small sample UZR data despite the fact that nobody else is paying for it.
I didn’t like the deal when it was signed; it looks worse today. I think it was an obvious case of the Rangers having a lot of money left over when Hamilton went over to the Angels. When he didn’t even give them a chance to match, they decided to dump that money into Andrus.
The tale the numbers paint on Elvis are pretty clear and I agree with the consensus assessment. I’m concerned about the weight gain, as a sign he’s not committed. It’s difficult to say from an analytical perspective that a player isn’t exerting himself 100%, but the idea that a young man signing a contract that guarantees he’s set for life, so he loses commitment doesn’t seem far fetched. I think Andrus is a perfect change of scenery guy. I believe a market like New York could reinvigorate him and you could see him, at least a temporarily, return to a 4 win player.