Is it Time to Panic in Cincinnati?
After reaching the playoffs for the first time in fourteen seasons in 2010, the Cincinnati Reds entered this season with huge expectations. The main reason for optimism centered around the return of Edinson Volquez. Though Volquez technically pitched for the Reds last season, he was still recovering from the effects of Tommy John surgery. Finally expected to be healthy for the entire season, it looked as if the Reds finally had their ace. That hasn’t been the case, however, as Volquez has struggled mightily in his return. After only ten starts, the Reds have sent Volquez back to Triple A to see if he can work out his issues. On top of demoting their Opening Day starter, the Reds are also in the midst of a six-game losing streak. With all their recent issues, is it time to start worrying about the Reds? In a word, no.
The Reds were able to win the NL Central last season with a minimal contribution from Volquez. Due to his recovery from Tommy John, Volquez returned in late-July, and pitched only 62.2 innings for the Reds. Even if Volquez remains in the minors for the rest of 2011 – an unlikely scenario – the Reds can still contend for the division without him considering they already did it last season.
The loss of Volquez shouldn’t hurt the Reds all that much due to their strong pitching depth. As Albert Lyu chronicled before the season, the Reds had multiple starters competing for only five rotation spots. Even though Volquez and Mike Leake haven’t panned out, the Reds still have a decent four-man staff. While they haven’t announced who will take Volquez’s spot in the rotation just yet, Sam LeCure and Matt Maloney could be decent placeholders for the time being.
Their period in the rotation may be short-lived, however, as Volquez or Leake could return at any moment. The Reds voluntarily chose to remove both pitchers from the rotation due to their poor performances, not due to injury. Although they may have been demoted, they are not gone for the season. The Reds can still call upon Volquez or Leake whenever they deem it necessary.
If the Reds hope to reach the same heights as they did last season, their offense is going to have to remain strong. After finishing 1st in offensive WAR last season, the Reds have nearly kept up the pace in 2011. Instead of experiencing regression after his MVP season, Joey Votto may actually be getting better. With Brandon Phillips again turning in another fine season and Jay Bruce finally manifesting the power everyone expected, the Reds once again have a promising core of hitters. That’s true even without mentioning Drew Stubbs, who is currently experiencing a nice breakout season.
All told, there’s little reason to worry in Cincinnati. Despite the losing streak, the Reds are only 3.5 games out of first place. Since we know not to overreact to small samples, we should expect the Reds to turn things around soon. The temporary loss of Volquez shouldn’t alter our expectations, as the Reds were able to win the division with a minimal contribution from him last season. This current version of the Reds is much like the team we saw last season. Their pitching is good enough to keep them in games, but their offense (and defense) is what will ultimately propel them to a division crown. The Reds may appear more vulnerable than they did last week, but in reality little has changed.
Chris is a blogger for CBSSports.com. He has also contributed to Sports on Earth, the 2013 Hard Ball Times Baseball Annual, ESPN, FanGraphs and RotoGraphs. He tries to be funny on twitter @Chris_Cwik.
2nd in UZR, 2nd in offensive WAR, middle of the pack in xFIP, They’ll be fine.
I don’t follow the Reds closely, but what is the deal with Volquez? From the little I’ve heard, the Reds are more disgusted with his attitude than anything else.
He’s walking everyone under the sun
volquez is off the peds, he is a roid rager… not suprise he has flashes of roid rage. this article doesnt mention one thing about dusty baker or j gomes
Do PEDs make you throw the ball in the strike zone more often?
Being off of PEDs causes…’roid rage? Ok.
After giving up 7 runs in 2 and 2/3rds innings in his last start, Volquez came out with the hilarious quote: “Everybody has to step up, start to score some runs.”
Sounds like they should definitely be disgusted with his attitude.
http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2011/05/22/volquez-weve-got-to-score-more-runs/
Not mentioned: Their rivals aren’t very good. The Cardinals and the Brewers have decent rosters when they are at full strength, but neither team has a lick of depth (ok, STL has a few fall back OF’s) meaning that things will have to break perfectly for them to stay in contention. The Reds have the depth to handle things like Volquez struggling.
Eh, would disagree with your assessment considering the Cards have the best run differential in the NL, Albert Pujols has been near replacement level so far and figures to improve somewhat, they have dealt with a great deal of injuries and played well, and Jonah Keri just wrote an article saying the Cards have the best bench in baseball.
Also, the Brewer’s starters pitching is starting to come around and looks to be the best in the division the rest of the season.
It seems to me their two rivals are quite good and the Reds could very well find themselves in third place when it is all said and done.
Wow, you have a high standard for “near Replacement level” Albert has created 1.0 WAR thus far this season. 60 hitters have done better than that… just 60.
I think their rivals look strong in context. You put the Cards in any other NL division and they’re probably a 3rd place team, Brew Crew probably even worse.
Antonio: best run differential in the NL.
Not only are their rivals good, but there’s two of them, and the WC looks to be unavailable given the strength of the Braves/Phillies. The Reds chances of making the post-season have to be around 20%.
For what it is worth, BP has them at 15%, 10% of which comes from winning the division and 5% from the WC. Projected record: 82.5-79.5.
Another reason for optimism: The team has gotten a .664 OPS from its left fielders so far, but that’s mostly due to Jonny Gomes’ terrible play, and he has been benched. Look for Chris Heisey and Fred Lewis to get the bulk of the time going forward, and they figure to easily outperform that number. If not, Todd Frazier or Yonder Alonso could get a crack at it.
Look at what Scherzer did last season. I can see something similar happening with Volquez if he’s actually able to admit that he’s not getting it done pitching the way he’s pitching. Based on his comments about the offense, that may be an issue.
For the rest of the day, I am going to contemplate the phrase, “the Reds are in the midst of a six-game losing streak.”
No team owns the market on struggling players. If you combine the stats from Pujols and Berkman as an example you probably are getting about what should be expected from the pair of them. If you combine Gomes and Stubbs you get two players on pace for a 7.5 WAR which is probably more than you expected going into the year, etc.
Going into the season there was no reason to think the Reds would walk away with the division and nothing has really changed that, it is a three way race and probably will stay that way all year.
I’m growing tired of hearing about the Reds’ pitching depth. The reason they have “seven guys competing for five spots” is that their rotation isn’t very good, so they keep trying people out. The reason you’ve never seen Lance Lynn in the big leagues is because the Cardinals have legitimate starters who consistently get the job done. The Reds have a great offense and an amazing defense, but until they have a number 1 or number 2 starter…they might have trouble. In my opinion, this is why they tend to feast on the bad teams and have difficulty with good competition.
You’re wrong on the beating up the bad teams point. That was true last year, but this year they are getting killed by the Pirates and D-Backs but doing fine against the Cards and Brewers.
It’s kind of comical what they’re doing with Mike Leake, you skip the kid all the way to the majors out of college. Then he has a few bad starts, but overall not that bad. His ERA is high, by FIP & xFIP look fine. Then you jerk him around and send him to be the long man? Then turn around and send him to AAA. Seems like a good way to ruin a kid’s confidence.
By all accounts, Mike Leake does not want for confidence. He wasn’t one of the 5 best starters, but they wanted to keep him in the majors, so he goes to the pen. Hardly an insult there. Then he struggles in the pen and they decide he’s best off getting regular starts, so he goes to AAA. Something tells me Leake can handle that. If anything, a healthy dose of adversity could do the kid some good.
He also thinks he can get away with shoplifting.
I think it’s about time for Mike Leake to steal a spot in the rotation.