Is Javier Baez Breaking Out or Is It Just Loud Noise?
Cubs manager Joe Maddon has claimed previously tha Javier Baez has a chance to become Manny Ramirez, the hitter, if he could just lay off the out-of-zone breaking ball. That’s a big claim for a player who had never recorded even a league-average line before this season. Maddon made this comp again after Baez blasted two home runs and recorded four hits against the Dodgers on Tuesday night.
“I have been saying for a couple of years, the moment he stops swinging at sliders in the dirt, he becomes Manny Ramirez and he’s getting closer,” Cubs manager Joe Maddon said of Baez. “And I think he is a better defender than Manny was and baserunner. And Manny, I still love you.”
Baez is enjoying a breakout season. He dominated Dodgers’ pitching in the clubs’ recently completed three-game series. He left Los Angeles with a 130 wRC+ on the year. This is notable, as his top career mark before that was just a 98 wRC+. His 2.3 WAR already matches his season-best total of a year earlier. Baez has been a star for the first half of the season.
It’s easy to get swept up in making unfair comps after swings like Baez’s on Tuesday.
Like his grand slam in the sixth:
And a solo shot from earlier in the game:
Of course, those were fastballs.
Baez has always recorded good numbers against fastballs. This season, he’s posted a linear weight of 14.4 runs above average on the pitch. Per 100 pitches, Baez ranks 14th in the majors in effectiveness against fastballs.
But it’s important that Baez somehow learn how to improve against non-fastballs, as well: he is currently seeing the lowest rate of four-seam fastballs (31.2%) and overall fastballs (45.7%) of his career.
We know Baez has plus raw power and elite bat speed. We also know he has swing-and-miss and pitch-identification issues. Those liabilities have kept him from translating his raw power into actual, usable game power. They have prevented the physical talents from fully actualizing on the field. Most of all, what the Baez experience has reinforced is that hitting is really difficult even for an elite-level athlete.
For his career, Baez has hit .274 and .333 against four- and two-seam fastballs and slugged .505 and .478 against those pitches respectively. Against sliders and curves? He’s hit .245 and .193, respectively, while slugging .465 and .335. If Baez could hit breaking stuff a bit more effectively, it could be transformative.
So is Maddon on to something? Is Baez getting closer?
In some ways, no.
For starters, Baez ranks first (or worst) in out-of-zone swing rate, a 46.4% mark that is a career high. His swinging-strike rate is the league’s worst among qualifiers, as well.
Baez’s whiff and chase rates on breaking balls have remained in line with his career averages and they’ve even increased this month. Baez is still swinging and missing at 39.1% of sliders he attempts to hit.
Of all the pitches thrown to Baez in June, 42.9% had been breaking balls entering play Thursday, which was a career high for a month. It’s not as if pitchers seem concerned at throwing Baez breaking balls.
But while Baez continues to whiff, he has more often concentrated swings against sliders that are in the zone:
Consider his swings from 2017:
Versus 2018:
Baez has improved against curveballs, batting .308 with a .539 slugging mark against the pitch. And while he’s still batting just .207 against sliders, he’s slugged .517 on the pitch (including five home runs). While the swing and miss is still there with breaking balls — and with the slider in particular — he’s created more damage against breaking balls this year when he connects.
Baez has performed at a career-best level offensively. When he’s made contact, he’s never produced more damage. However, there’s still a lot of chase in his game; he is chasing out of zone more than any major-league hitter. He has a long ways to go before becoming Manny. But even if he improves just a little bit offensively he can be considered a star.
What’s also interesting about Baez is that it seems like he’s been around forever but he’s just 25. He doesn’t turn 26 until January. He still has time to make great gains. He’s under club control for three more seasons. He could become a free agent before he turns 30. If he truly does stop swinging at chase in addition to better damaging pitches he offers at then has one of the higher ceilings in the game. Is he in the process of reaching it?
A Cleveland native, FanGraphs writer Travis Sawchik is the author of the New York Times bestselling book, Big Data Baseball. He also contributes to The Athletic Cleveland, and has written for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, among other outlets. Follow him on Twitter @Travis_Sawchik.
‘Is he in the process of reaching it?”
I guess I thought you were answering that question.
“If he truly does stop swinging at chase in addition to better damaging pitches he offers at then has one of the higher ceilings in the game. ”
So here is the answer…stop swinging at chase, duh!
If I were Maddon/Davis I would tell him, “If it gets to 3-2 DON’T swing. Just don’t swing. Get set and everything but don’t you dare swing the bat. IF you strike out I will pretend it didn’t happen and give you a $100 bill and say ‘I’m sorry.’ But if you swing at another pitch 3-2 that is 18″ off the plate I am going to blow up.”
Not germane to discussions of his offensive breakout, but what’s with his defense? The advanced metrics hate it this year. Is it small sample size, or does he suddenly stink?
Didn’t you hear Joe? He’s becoming Manny. When he starts talking to the birds at Fenway, you’ll know for sure.
This is a great mystery to me too. The metrics have never really been particularly enamored by his defense. DRS likes his defense at 2B, but not at SS or 3B. UZR rates him average at best everywhere. I don’t think he is particularly great at SS, myself. He has an arm that makes up for some lack of range there, and he’s certainly competent at SS, but compared to Russell you can tell he’s just not quite as good as the elite SS.
You don’t get extra points for making a difficult play look easy, and he makes some really crazy plays, but I’m also not sure he makes difficult plays at that much higher a rate than, say Ben Zobrist, who rates as a solid 2B by UZR despite a lack of a reputation as a great fielder in his old age.
But in general, I think a lot of the things Baez does just don’t show up in the metrics. Things like his tagging ability aren’t included. I’m also not sure that UZR knows what to do with a play like this that showcases Javy’s instincts:
https://ftw.usatoday.com/2018/06/chicago-cubs-javier-baez-two-assists-one-double-play-puig-bellinger-mlb
How many fielders turn that into a double play? Probably few, but how does UZR credit that? The same as turning a 6-4-3 double play? Or something else? It’s hard to even give all the credit for that to Baez, but he was the instigator in all of it. He’s a ridiculously skilled defender, does the finer things that nobody else does, at least not the way he does them, and I’m not surprised the metrics aren’t fine tuned enough to pick up on all of the little things he does so well.
There is an article on Fangraphs about Baez’s lightning quick tags. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-elite-skill-you-wont-find-on-javy-baezs-scouting-report/
Summary: It’s not much, but it does help Baez’s defensive value a bit.
Yeah, in actuality it is a skill that adds some value. But I don’t think it’s being captured in any of the metrics.
I can’t fathom this having any measurable value. I get that it is a thing, but what are we talking – 1 out per year in the best case?
I agree. I think defensive metrics are still on diapers, but if it is one person it is consistently undervaluing is Javier Baez. His defense is amazing at 2B.
He’s fun to watch but he also makes some dumb errors. If he cuts that crap out the defensive metrics will agree with you.
No reason to think that they will ever grow into well-adjusted adults! The same problems they have now are the same they have had for 20 years. I don’t see technology solving much of it…
I actually think he would be a good SS if they gave him the job… but as I said above playing everywhere comes at the cost of mastery at one spot. He has so few innings at SS that the metrics are literally worthless.
It’s not a ton, but he has 1,229 career innings at SS. That’s about 300 fewer innings than at 2B. He’s at +1 DRS and -2.3 UZR for his career there. I’m comfortable saying the eye test and the metrics indicate he’s an adequate SS defender, but not elite. There’s nothing wrong with that. The only reason I’d be opposed to Baez at SS is simply that Addison Russell is better there.
Could he be above average with more time there? I’m not sure it’s a matter of experience, and you don’t usually see guys get better at defense as they get into their mid 20s, but maybe he could be better if given the opportunity.
They are spread over multiple years though… its bouncing around that hurts. In a given year, the samples are small. I think he would be better than Russell if handed the job.
Simply put Baez makes the fantastic play but often makes routine errors. He’s sort of the flip side of Russell which is why Maddon plays Russell at SS. Maddon calls Russell “boring” but in a good way. In terms of defensive metrics, they don’t really know how to evaluate the fantastic plays and lean more on his routine errors.
Those metrics have never been particularly accurate… always worth keeping in mind. In reality, it isn’t easy playing all over the field which certainly doesn’t help him to be great at a single position.
Baez = Pedro Serrano.
Hats for bats. Keep bats warm. Gracias.
It’s interesting that Fangraphs personnel refer to him as “tha Javier Baez” while in Chicago he’s known as daaaaaa Javy
This post got me all hot and bothered.
Really weird that he is breaking out by swinging at basically everything.
He really is a wizard in the field.
2018 xwOBA is .360 (107th out of 386 batters with at least 75 AB). 2017 xwOBA was .290 (336th out of 468).
I don’t know at what point xwOBA stabilizes for hitters, but I like that as a Cubs fan.
The concern would be that he can crush weaker pitchers with poor sliders but is ineffective against good pitchers with good control. That means he’ll be less helpful in the playoffs, when the starters are generally better. Obviously most hitters do better against bad pitchers and worse against good pitchers, but he seems like an extreme case.
His OPS in the final three innings is much higher than in the first six, suggesting he is feasting on relievers (.922 in the final three, versus .735 in the first three and .776 in the middle). He’s also very poor in “high leverage” situations: .562 (versus .803 in medium leverage and .894 in low leverage), which again suggests he feasts on bad relievers. On the other hand, his OPS against relievers is 44 points higher than against starters (.817 vs .783), which is notable but not crazy. I don’t have a sense of how this all stacks up against other good hitters. Forgive my ignorance, but is there a stat that adjusts performance based on the quality of the pitcher faced?
If Maddon wants to get lots of people playing time, maybe he can use Baez as a sub more frequently, once the starter is pulled. That might be the best use of Baez in the playoffs, where good starters are more likely to get him to chase.
Yeah, this was kinda a joke with me last season–Baez hit 20+ homers, but it felt like half of them were “front runner” home runs–he’d clobber a homer in the 8th or later in garbage time or after the Cubs had finally broken the game open to break the game even more open. He’s doing that some this year, too, but he’s also genuinely had some big hits in big moments. It’s a bad stat, but his RBIs kinda tell the story about this Cubs team–it’s a team that’s often struggled with RISP, and he’s been one of the few that’s stepped up there this season, and that stat shows it.
The same can be said of most players at some point in their career… IMO it was in the post-season that Baez got his career on track in the first place.
I agree with your theory, but I don’t think it is correct in the case of Baez. I think for most players, that would be how it works, but Baez isn’t most players. Baez has played the role of post-season hero many times. When the playoffs start, he becomes the best bat in that lineup – remember the WBC? He was maybe the best player on the field in a stacked lineup. Baez shines against elite competition – he doesn’t wilt. I am not a huge Javy Baez fan, but he is one of the most talented players in MLB.
Those last three innings are not scrubs – those are back-end bullpen arms, not scrubby middle relievers. They are almost assuredly going to be righties as Baez is enough is a presence that you won’t let him beat you with a sloppy match-up. I would actually imagine that he is a bit better against high leverage arms – relatively speaking. With Baez, those numbers don’t tell you much. The Cubs made the mistake for several years of worrying about the underlying metrics, when they really should have just been letting him do his thing, which is go out there and be better than the other guys.
Its not that Baez gets beat – he beats himself. Baez lacks focus… or something like it. The man went over 6 weeks without an unintentional walk. Everyone knows he is a hacker – I can’t imagine he was getting a whole lot of strikes – I am sure he was being pitched around and he refused to walk. He makes the choice to swing at everything… and despite it all he manages to succeed which is a reflection of his talent. I think that Baez wants to prove to the world that he can succeed without walking – hes weird like that. Why on earth would you do a no-look tag? He is extremely talented and a showboat with a chip on his shoulder – something along those lines. He tries to do things that others don’t – certainly to his detriment, but he doesn’t generally care.
Baez is at his best when he just fowled a ball off of his foot and it looks like he was going to leave the game. He gets red-hot after he suffered an injury that may have kept others out of the lineup for a week (like the past week). I think when he is injured it forces him to actually focus – after all Baez at 70% is an all-star – that’s how talented he is. It’s the same reason he is good in the post-season – he just needs a reason to step up mentally. While most players might be undone by poor plate discipline – Javy just takes it as a challenge. If he ever decides to apply himself the league is in a lot of trouble… fortunately they probably don’t have to worry about that as he will be busy trying to unlock the ‘swing at everything’ achievement!
I often look at Baez’s good swings and see Manny’s tutelage from when he was a hitting coach throughout the Cubs’ system, but I’m not sure he has Manny’s cyborg-like pitch recognition (or at least how it seems in my memory) and is that something you can teach? Or is that something you kind of inherently possess? I hope he breaks out, because he is a super fun player to watch when he’s on.
Javy was awful from mid may to mid June where he swung at basically every pitch. He made a colossal change in approach in mid June and has been destroying the ball since. He is still chasing some, but nowhere close to the rate that he was previously. He drew 1 walk from April 6 to may 30. Taken 4 walks in the last two weeks, which isn’t much but he has stopped swinging at 95 percent of two strike pitches.
I am not sure he makes changes as much as he just floats on currents and ends up where he ends up. When you make changes – revert – make changes several times in a season and they probably shouldn’t be called changes. For me changes are permanent.
Since calling up Javy, I have always drawn comparisons between Baez and Starlin. This being due to their propensity to swing at off-speed pitches outside of the zone. I wonder how Castro’s stats through his first five seasons compare to Javy’s? It would be an interesting piece for Cubs fans.
If you ignore baserunning and defence they’re quite similar:
Castro (2011-2015) – 278/317/404 – 95 wRC+
Baez (2014-2018) – 261/304/452 – 96 wRC+
Baez has more pop, Castro more BA,
And Baez is worlds better at the non hitting aspects of the game.
I think Alfonso Soriano might be a better comp for Baez’s ceiling. This works both in terms of approach/output (lower walks than Manny) as well as in streakiness. Baez, like Soriano in his day, seems fully capable of putting together a hot streak that can carry the team on his back for weeks at a time. He is also capable of cold streaks that drag his numbers back down to the land of good/very good. But the quality of swings during those hot streaks is going to make for a lot of hyperbole here and there.
Like Soriano, he’s probably a 5/5.5 WAR guy who is capable of looking like a 10 WAR guy for four to eight weeks at a time.
I think you are about 6 weeks late on this breakout… either that or a year, hard to say exactly. I doubt Baez ever becomes selective – he seems pretty determined to do things his own way, but with the success he is having its kind of hard to hold it against him.