Is Ryan Braun’s Extension Worse Than Howard’s?
Almost exactly one year ago, the Philadelphia Phillies signed Ryan Howard to a five year contract extension that was, shall we say, not exactly well thought of. The Phillies already had their slugging first baseman under team control for the current season and an additional one, but chose to give him a long term deal that locked up his age 32-36 seasons anyway.
Little did we know that this extend-a-guy-who-doesn’t-need-an-extension idea was going to turn into a full fledged trend. The Rockies took it to another level over the winter, giving Troy Tulowitzki a six year deal that, combined with his current contract, will keep him in Colorado through 2020. While I thought that deal exposed the Rockies to a lot of risk, Tulowitzki is in the best-player-in-baseball conversation, and locking him up now did give them a chance to keep an elite player around – an option that might not have been possible had they waited for him to have another MVP type season or two.
Now, we have the Ryan Braun extension, which borrows some from each of the first two moves. Like Tulowitzki, the Brewers chose to sign Braun through 2020, despite the fact that he was already under contract through 2015. Like Howard, they locked up a big time power hitter’s age 32-36 seasons. Braun simply isn’t as good as Tulowitzki and he got nearly the same amount of money, so it’s easy to say that this extension for Milwaukee is worse than the deal Colorado made. But, is it worse than the roundly mocked deal that Philadelphia made?
Braun and Howard are actually pretty similar players. They’re both bat-only players who derive all of their value at the plate, but are good enough at pounding the ball to still be worthy of their All-Star selections. Braun has been worth between +4 to +5 wins each of the last three seasons; Howard’s value is less consistent but averaged in that range as well. Braun walks a bit less and strikes out a bit less, but their BB/K ratios are almost identical. Braun is a better athlete, but there’s a pretty good chance he’ll also be a first baseman by the time this extension kicks in, especially with Prince Fielder’s inevitable departure from Milwaukee.
Braun is a better player than Howard today, but the relevant comparison is Howard now to Braun in 2014, when he would have been at the same point in age and proximity to free agency when the Phillies locked up their first baseman. Will Braun still be a +4 win player in three year’s time?
It’s possible, certainly. You could point to guys like Mark Teixeira and Kevin Youkilis, who were similarly valuable through age 27 but then took a step forward in their age 28 and 29 seasons. Braun is in the prime of his career, and it’s entirely within reason that his hot start to the season could be the start of his best year to date. However, we could also point to the likes of Jason Bay (an eerily similar player to Braun in terms of skillset), Carlos Lee, and Magglio Ordonez as warnings of this kind of skillet peaking early. Bay and Ordonez have had injuries, but that’s part of the risk of a long term deal – you don’t know what kind of physical condition a player will be in down the line.
At least the Phillies had a reasonable expectation of Howard being relatively healthy when the extension they gave him kicked in. They were only 18 months away from him reaching free agency, so the chances of a catastrophic problem limiting his value were greatly reduced. The Brewers need Braun to get through three more seasons injury free before they could be at the same point of confidence in his mid-30s health.
While the Phillies overvalued Howard and his contributions, at least their deal had a triggering motivation of nearing free agency – why the Brewers decided to lock up Brauns’ age 32-36 seasons now is something of a mystery to me. They inherited a mountain of risk in order to sign away years that, historically, you don’t really want to be paying big money for anyway. The odds of Braun being better than an average player over the life of his new extension aren’t very good, so the Brewers need to hope that the going rate for an average first baseman jumps to $20 million per year in a few years.
I’m going to call that unlikely. Just based on the information they had at the time and the relative pressure they were under to make a deal, I think I’m forced to say that this extension makes even less sense than the Howard deal did for the Phillies. Locking up a star shortstop like Tulowitzki is one thing, but paying well in advance for the decline years of a bat-only player is just not a very good idea.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Good analysis.
Yea, good analysis. Except, in an article about the value of a contract, the first dollar sign is at the end of the piece in a throwaway line.
So… maybe not-so-good analysis.
I’ve seen Dave do it before, not sure why he didn’t break down how much WAR Braun has to produce, assuming inflation and a normal again curve. It’s just guessing until you actually break it down. Lazy.
The closest thing he comes to is ” Will Braun still be a +4 win player in three year’s time?”
And 4 WAR is too high of an estimate, which is why Dave thinks it’s a bad signing.
Somehow, I don’t think MLB will be the same beast by 2020.
Energy costs rise, deflation hits…
Enjoy it while you can boys, the show is almost over.
In 2020 we will not be talking about baseball salaries, we will be complaining of hunger.
The United States will topple from power, and our athletes will flee for China.
THE GODLESS WILL LURCH THROUGH ABANDONED CITIES WHILE THE RIGHTEOUS ASCEND.
JOHN CUSACK WILL PRESIDE OVER A NEW DARK AGE.
Hahaha. +1
Too soon
My god, $20 million of this $105 million extension is differed INTEREST FREE from 2016-2020 to 2021-2031.
Cameron didn’t even mention that. What a weak analysis.
Wow – had no idea. That has to change this completely, I agree.
Seems like a stupid opinion now I’d say. As Braun is on the verge of winning the NL batting title, likely MVP and one of the best clutch hitters in all of baseball, and the Brewers coast into the playoffs…..nobody in Milwaukee is complaining.
I’d also argue he is a better player than Tulowitzki, a ‘lil maybe? 🙂
Totally agree. Because of the $10-million signing bonus he gets, this deal also makes it harder to keep Casey McGehee, Shaun Marcum and (after next year) Zack Greinke. A lot of eggs in one non-Albert Pujols-or-Troy Tulowitzki-shaped basket.
Major portion of Braum’s contract doesn’t kick in till 2015. Fielder is leaving after this season(freeing up $15.5 mil in payroll),as he never intended to stay with the Brewers. Brewers fans know this and more or less have accepted it. Braun’s deal was structured so the team would be able to sign free agents and keep Marcum, McGehee and Greinke as long as they perform. BRAUN approached the Brewer’s manageent in Spring Training. HE WANTS to finish his career as a Milwaukee Brewer. Contract actually decreases in value after the 2016 season. Think someone should have done more research before writing article as well as some of the people posting on here. And I’m guessing neither Tulo or Howard asked the team for an extension.
Another aspect Cameron didn’t bother to look at….
The $10 Million will be paid out in four $2.5 million payments starting next april 2012, and continue til 2015.
Get a clue.
The Brewers got all sorts of amazing concessions in this deal…….think of this, the last year of this deal, the Brewers pay Braun $12 million. $4 million of that is deferred interest free over the ten years from 2021-2031.
My God. then Cameron goes and comps this to Ryan Howard? I”m embarrassed for Fan Graphs this shoot from the hip analysis made it past the editors. This is something a Bavasi would have written 10 years ago….brain dead.
what makes you think that Braun will not be an above-average player the next 10 years? He’s been an allstar (deservingly, as you said) ever since he came into the league (partial rookie year not-withstanding), and is playing probably his best ball yet right now. Will he be just as good in 10 years as now? No, but that doesn’t mean he’ll be average by then. Look at his numbers historically for people with his experience and there aren’t a lot flops on the list. Most have had long, successful careers. and bytheway, if the cubs paid $10M for an average 1B this year, who says that wont be $20M in 10 years?
I think when you say “most” you mean most 1Bs you’ve heard of. For every player you say don’t decline (as much anyway) with age, there are 10 who do… You just don’t hear about them. What makes you think Braun is going to age favorably? And really, for the last 15 years, many players have beat “aging” with steroids. Are you suggesting Braun to take the juice in 3 or 4 years?
Yeah, if MLB inflation of salaries is going to double in 10 years, I’m going to quit being a fan.
Though I agree it could have been worded more clearly, Dave didn’t say he won’t be an average player for the next ten years. He said he likely won’t be a “better than an average player over the life of his new extension”–that is from 2016-2020, his age 32-36 years.
the signing bonus is cash given to him outside of the team’s other spending, so i dont see how this affects those other players. there is no way they’d structure this to hamstring themselves with a single star player and destine themselves to be a perennial ‘also-ran’ team…
That’s exactly what ownership said about the Vernon Wells extension.
” Braun simply isn’t as good as Tulowitzki and he got nearly the same amount of money,”
6 years 120 million is not nearly the same as 5 years 120 million.
That being said, Braun profiles to age MUCH better than Howard.
Why exactly? Howard isn’t built like Prince Fielder or Mo Vaughn. Why will Braun age MUCH better than Howard?
Because he is younger
Because Howard is already declining? Because Braun is a lot better player than Howard?
Howard’s BB%has gone down every year since 2007. His ISOd and ISOp have gone down. He’s a 3WAR player making 25M a year. What the heck is he gonna be in 4 years?
Braun, on the other hand, can run, field, is 60 lbs lighter (despite being only 2.5″ shorter). IE, hes a better athlete. Athletes age well.
The thing that really sticks out though, is the batting averages. Players with higher batting averages tend to age better, because you can only compensate for dropping BA so much. A guy who starts out as a .250 hitter isn’t all that useful, even if hes got a ton of power, if hes hitting .155.
SLG and OBP are both heavily dependant on BA.
He’s younger so he’s going to age better? What?
The extension doesn’t kick in until 2015!!! How is he going to be “younger” at that point? Did you guys even read the article?
You apparantly didn’t read my post.
I can’t exactly reply another level deeper, so perhaps you shouldn’t assume I was responding to you directly.
Braun’s extension doesn’t kick in for 5 years. You’re saying Braun will age better because Howard is already showing his age. That’s a really crappy argument.
“I can’t exactly reply another level deeper, so perhaps you shouldn’t assume I was responding to you directly.”
If you weren’t replying to me, you shouldn’t use a plural. “You guys” doesn’t mean one poster.
Fair enough, but I also didn’t say I wasn’t responding to you indirectly.
BTW, saying that Howard has already declined and Braun hasn’t as an argument for the Braun deal ignores the very real possibility that Braun might decline FASTER than Howard. The point is, we don’t know, and neither do the Brewers. That’s why it makes this such a bad deal, because they had time to wait and see.
Yes, it’s a bad extension. Not as bad as Howard’s, IMO, but still not good like Tulo’s. I also doubt that salaries will double in the next ten years. Inflate? Sure, but not double.
There’s reason to believe Braun could still be a 3 WAR player during at least part of the extension period (Carlos Lee accumulated 3.9 at age 32). With Wins going between 4 and 5 mil right now, he should be worth 15 mil (as opposed to the 16-20 he’ll be making during those years). While it is a poor extension, it’s unlikely to be viewed as an ‘albatross’ until the last year, maybe two. Let’s not get all doomsday over this.
Would’ve like to see the breakdown of the actual dollars. Too lazy to go find them and do all the math. Without the numbers I have no idea whether or not this was a good or bad move.
If you’re already on the internet, it would probably take less time to find Braun’s dollar amounts with a two second google search than to post a comment about how you are too lazy to find them.
The finding numbers takes 2 seconds, the breakdown, the WAR/aging projections, the inflation, you know, the actual analysis, takes time and work. Surprised you didn;t realize that there was more that went into it than just the numbers… oh wait. Not surprised.
How can you not be suprised? Because I’ve talked to you before? Because I have any clue who you are?
Dave did the analysis above, sans salary numbers. You could find salary numbers in two seconds. What’s missing?
You are failing at thinking critically. Just seeing the numbers does nothing. You need to have an estimate of inflation and an projection with aging curve of Braun’s WAR. This article did neither. It sucked.
An analysis including inflation and aging curve assumptions ten years out would be filled with too many unknowns to give a point estimate. And including enough cushion to be 90% confident would be too wide a range to be of substantive value in an article. Thus the conclusion of the article, too many unknowns to make this contract make sense.
From the article “you don’t know what kind of physical condition a player will be in”. Comparisons to the aging of Mark T and Youkilis, then to Bay, Lee, and Ordonez. = Aging curve discussion
“Brewers need to hope that the going rate for an average first basemen jumps to 20 million per year in a few years” = Inflation discussion (and by calling Braun a future1B, kind of aging curve)
There is discussion of aging and there is discussion of what type of inflation environment would have to occur for this contract to make sense. The article hit on the two points claimed to be missing. You can pick at the assumption he’ll be worth an average first basemen if you want, but the aging and inflation assumptions are there.
Here’s a question, how many guys are actually worthy of a similar type of extension? Ryan Zimmerman was the name I saw tossed about on Twitter yesterday and I might agree if I was a little more confident in his health. My chief worry is that injuries could erode his defensive skills which would then expose him as a fairly pedestrian starter. Other than that, Evan Longoria’s the only other guy who really comes to mind and if it were any other team than the Rays I might dismiss the added risk as a just reward for his first contract.
I’m stumped on a 3rd guy.
And none of the contracts listed above is as bad as Joe Mauer’s…worst contract EVER!
i believe that Arod’s current deal (he was actually worth the 250MM over 10 years previous contract) might be the worst ever. i mean he is still producing with at least 30 homers and decent BA/OBP, while playing passable defense, but he also makes 25MM a year and he will be making 22MM until he is almost 40 and then 18MM in his early forties (i think those are the numbers). kudos to the yanks for front loading it because there’s no way he’s worth the money in the latter years… but still 275MM to last until he’s 42… just way too much risk.
Front-loading doesn’t just mean you pay less when they are less valuable. It means you are not earning interest on all that money you front-loaded away. If you are going to bay $250mil either way, it is beneficial to back-load, even if it means paying ARod too much towards the end. The ONLY benefit of front-loading is that it may be marginally easier to dump his contract on some other sucker towards the end. But that is not likely to happen when ARod is 40 without the Yankees picking up a good portion of his salary anyways. It’s hard to dump salary when no other team can afford the salaries you’re trying to dump.
There are aspects to baseball beyond bare production. The point of this deal is to set up Braun as a lifetime Brewer and the face of the franchise. People on the internet seem to misunderstand the value of that in drawing fans to the park and in maintaining team revenue, which is amplified by the fact that Milwaukee is such a small market.
Maintaining enthusiasm for the team (and having Braun as a guaranteed Brewer for most of his career) is especially important given that Prince Fielder will be walking at the end of the season.
”
People on the internet seem to misunderstand the value of that in drawing fans to the park and in maintaining team revenue, which is amplified by the fact that Milwaukee is such a small market.
”
No, people understand that perfectly. We just know that winning brings fans, not big contracts. Nothing drives fans away quicker than big albatross deals.
Apparently the Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets don’t exist any more on the Internet. Interesting.
When is the last time any of those teams sold out a game?
The cubs, despite being in a huge market, can’t sell out a 42K seat stadium, that is steeped in history, is gorgeous, etc. They barely break 80% capacity.
The Mets barely break 70% capacity.
The Dodgers don’t even break 70% capacity.
And these are the biggest markets in baseball.
The Cubs sell out all the time, trust me, come June and the weather is nice, the Cubs will sell out. They’ve been losing for 102 years yet the fans come out no matter what. Meanwhile, the Dodgers were 3rd in attendance last year. The Mets, even the disaster that they are, were 12th in the league in 2010.
I spent the last 2 summers in Chicago. Cubs tickets are expensive, but they’re always available.
I live in Chicago. They might be expensive, they might be available, but there are 40,000 fans in the park on most day and night games. If it’s September and the Cubs are 10 games out? Then we’re talking 25k-30k. And it’s been this way since the mid-80s if not before.
You just named 3 cities each with populations at least 5 times the size of Milwaukee. Put 5 baseball teams in each of those cities and let see if they still sell out while playing sub-.500 baseball.
” but there are 40,000 fans in the park on most day and night games.”
Their attendance statistics disagree.
You know what helps revenue? Winning.
They were five full seasons away from “losing” Ryan Braun. Your rationale is unsound.
i agree that winning helps…
but you know what hurts revenue?
half-hearted attempts to keep your stars (the offers for CC and Prince).
i think this is the epitome of a counter-point to people saying this year is the all-in year for the brewers, somehow signaling that they’ll forever be mediocre without Prince…
Despite those half-hearted attempts, they’ve ranked in or near the top 10 in attendance the last four years. If they can continue to fill in those holes (i.e. CC replaced by Gallardo + Greinke), they’ll be fine. This hurts their ability to fill in the holes down the road.
Please, don’t kid yourself. If the Brewers are making the playoffs every year because they were smart and didn’t overpay for Prince and Braun and spent that money signing good players to value contracts, are you telling me you won’t go to the games just because Prince and Braun aren’t around anymore? You got to be joking right? You know what you’ll do? You’ll just cheer for the next “star.”
Winning solves everything.
Gotta agree, winning brings fans out. When the Brewers started winning in 2007, fans came, when they were losing before then, they left. They’ve drawn 3 million fans the last few years, I dont consider them too small market. They just overshadowed by Milwaukee. Green Bay is an even smaller market, but my guess is they generate more the the Brewers. Teams can make themselves big market if they structure themselves right, and Im not talking giving away mondo money.
Of course production is most important and Braun is blazing path to the HOF there. 3000 hits, .300 BA and 500 HR are coming.
Really? Because last time I checked, Ryan Braun is barely a quarter of the way there in HR and not quite a quarter of the way there in hits. Wanna bet he actually maintains his level of ability and health over the next dozen seasons? Because I generally don’t bet on players being as good in their late 30s as in their late 20s.
Braun is Paul Molitor with a slight uppercut.
telo,
this doesnt change his existing deal, which is something like 6M, 8M, 8M, 10M.
the new deal is about 19M 19M 19M 18M 16M.
the 19M he won’t be an aging overweight average player, he’ll still be in his early 30s. i like that they are protecting themselves somewhat by lowering his salary those last couple years, and if he is average by 2020, 16M in 2020 dollars for an average player that has been successful for a number of years will still be a decent deal for the team.
Ah, interesting. So, assuming his prior deal was average, not good or bad, and normal inflation of 10%, this deal doesn’t seem too bad? Basically they signed him at 19 mill for his 32-36 year seasons. So, he needs to be about a 3 win player over those seasons, assuming 6mil/win on average. I think it’s fair. I don’t think it’s good, but there’s some value to your fanbase having a franchise player like that.
agreed. his current deal is very good i think (his production for 6M right now). did they make a ‘steal’ of a deal or great deal for the team? no, but will work out to be a good one, and the factor of the TRUE ‘franchise player’ cannot be quantitatively valued…
“there’s some value to your fanbase having a franchise player like that.”
Well sure. But they already had one (the same one, actually!) for the next five years.
This deal does not guarantee the fanbase a franchise player (except in salary). It guarantees them Ryan Braun, who may or may not be a franchise caliber player in 6-10 years.
@Rev
You didn’t really say much. Yes, they had a franchise player for 4 years, now they have him for 9 years, or whatever the numbers are. I’m not saying it’s a significant factor, but it is a factor nonetheless to the health of your fanbase right now. Yes, it could be detrimental down the road if the deal turns out to be a bust, but that’s the entire question at hand:
Will 19mil a year be over or under his actual value during his 32-36 year old seasons. I think the answer is, it’s probably about right. Though it sounds like Dave thinks otherwise. Come to think of it, this article was pretty half assed. He doesn’t really say much. Mailing it in again, Dave.
If you think $19m in 5 years time is just about right then you should hate this deal. It pays him $10m today in order to pay him $19m in 2015 and it assumes all injury risk.
Hmm. but the idea is that FAs are usually overvalued on the open market, and the Brewers are betting that he’ll be better. I think they are being a little optimistic, but not too much. It’s a simple future.
Dont forget, $20 million of the 105 is deferred over 10 years 2021-2031 INTEREST FREE!
Overweight player?
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/si/2008/writers/david_sabino/09/30/sabino.digits/ryan-braun-ap2.jpg
tomas,
i agree, and it isn’t just about jersey sales. Its knowing that your team perennial allstar (which braun is now) will be with the team every year, so there’ll always be that piece to build around, that player to base hope upon.
keeping hope and optimism in your fanbase is important to keeping it successful, this deal does that. the yanks and sox are historic teams that will always sell well and be profitable, so they can just go out and spend whatever market value is in a given year, not the same in MIL.
Yes, much worse. Part of it is because the Phillies are much more able to handle a bad contract than the Brewers. Another reason is that Howard was signed 2 years ahead of when he became a FA whereas Braun was signed 5 full years ahead of time. Why take that much risk…especially as a small market club?
Every contract is more risky for Milwaukee. If that was the standard, they wouldn’t sign anyone.
Fact is, the Howard deal is such an utter disgrace, no matter who signed him. Nobody in baseball pays that kind of money for merely a good player.
RC,
i disagree that fans are ‘driven away’ by bad deals. it’s not the fan’s money being spent and they wont stop being fans because of a bad deal. the fans only care about a bad deal if MGMT says they cant put competitive team together because player X is worthless but we’re stuck with him.
i’m pretty sure that the yankess didn’t lose fans because of the Pavano deal.
Bad deals kill hope.
The yankees didn’t lose any fans because the Pavano deal didn’t hurt the yankees at all. It simply didn’t matter.
The Cubs on the other hand, most certainly are losing money because of the Soriano/Zambrano/Bradley/etc deals.
Do you think fans have a lot of hope when a team with a 100M payroll is carrying around a $25m/yr player who is replacement level? I mean, cmon, there was a ton of angst last year in Boston because Mike Lowell was making $15M and couldn’t play. Think of what it would have been like if you double’d Lowell’s money and said he still had 4 years left on the deal.
OK, it only kills hope when the team suffers. If the Brewers are still competitive in the last half of the decade, there will be grumbling about overpaid players, but the fans still come (at least they do in MIL, i guess I cannot speak for other areas, but in MIL, they still will). If the team falls apart, then they could look to trade him (because he’d be happy to leave anyways)
You mean like Barry Zito’s contract? Or Aaron Rowands?
Oh wait…the Giants won the World Series last year WITH those two terrible contracts, and they’ve been selling out games like crazy.
But only because Buster Posey and Madison Baumgarner, and their late-season bullpen upgrades saved their ass. Most teams don’t have that luxury. If they hadn’t won, there’d be problems this year.
This is good analysis, but people who are not from a small market like Milwaukee really fail to understand that this deal is about far more than dollars and production on the field.
The Brewers had a Hollywood type guy who could become a mega star in a city like LA say that he wants to stay in Milwaukee for life. People outside Milwaukee have no idea what it’s like to hear a guy like Ryan Braun say that, and what it can do for the entire perception of the city and the Brewers’ franchise. Milwaukeeans and Wisconsinites are fiercely loyal people who cherish everything about out town and our state, and to see somebody as Hollywood cool as Ryan Braun want to be here, that means the world to us.
That aspect aside, baseball still is a business, and what most people are also failing to realize about this deal is that the Brewers may have gotten a steal. Do you have any how much the market value for a guy like Ryan Braun will be in 2015, when he’d be a free agent? My guess is “through the roof”, and certainly a lot more than the Brewers will be paying him. So assuming he doesn’t fall apart, this deal makes a lot of sense.
Since coming into the league, Braun ranks second among all major leaguers in hits, second in runs, second in extra-base hits, eighth in homers, eighth in doubles, sixth in runs batted in, fourth in slugging, ninth in batting average and eighth in on-base plus slugging. Anybody who doesn’t think its worth it to lock that guy up for as long as possible — especially in a market like Milwaukee — either hasn’t thought it through very much, or lives in a market where there team has the money to go out and sign a guy like that whenever they want.
very well put. it seems all the critics assume Braun’s success and those historical numbers/ranks you listed are unfounded for reason and won’t last for 10years (but somehow Teixera’s or A-Gon’s are OK). The guy is good and doesn’t get the hype because of the market he’s in. The way media covers sports nationally, they probably assume that Jacoby Ellsbury is better than Braun
“So assuming he doesn’t fall apart, this deal makes a lot of sense.”
In other words: Assuming you remove most of the risk component of the risk-reward analysis here, this deal makes a lot of sense. Can’t argue with that!
“. . . what most people are also failing to realize about this deal is that the Brewers may have gotten a steal.”
Of course they *may* have gotten a steal. They also *may* have just hamstrung themselves 6-10 years from now. There is an infinite range of potential outcomes here, so we need to focus on what we believe is the most probable outcome.
“Do you have any how much the market value for a guy like Ryan Braun will be in 2015, when he’d be a free agent?”
No, I don’t. Nor do you, nor do the Brewers.
“My guess is “through the roof”, and certainly a lot more than the Brewers will be paying him.”
If that’s your guess, then that’s fine. But in no way is it *certainly* a lot more than the Brewers will be paying him.
This move was made almost entirely for off the field reasons. I think it needs to be judged in that context. This was absolutely an investment in the Brewers brand and could pay dividends 20+ years from now. That being said if the Brewers don’t have some moderate success in the future its probably a mute point.
Also, I find the timing of the deal interesting. They announced it the Thursday before an April homestand with anticipated low attendence. I’m willing to bet this deal was done in the offseason, but they waited to announce the deal until now to reap some extra attendence.
I’ll add this. I think for a majority of major league teams this would not be a good deal. I think there are unique situations to Milwaukee and to the Brewers that might make this smart. I think you can start playing around with numbers for attendence, advertisements, tv revenue, and other miscellaneous items (I’m really curious how jersey sales work if anyone knows) and be able to justify $20mm in present value of intangibles or goodwill from this deal.
Ah yes, a mute point. Gotta love those.
This isn’t good for the Brewers, the Werth contract is better than this. Mike Leake stealing $60 of shirts from Macys makes more sense.
Look at the career numbers of Werth and Braun and tell me who you want to be paying decent-to-big money for when they are 33-35…
I want Ryan Braun? Maybe I’m missing something but Braun has a reliable track record showing a falling strikeout rate, rising walk rate and very consister power/avg. He has good speed, fielding seems to be the only metric which Werth projects much better than Braun in. Braun is also much younger than Werth…
*Consistent
Also, doesn’t Dave’s analysis pretty much argue against signing Pujols for anything more than three years?
If Pujols regress by THREE WAR in the next three years, he’s STILL a 4-5 WAR player. Braun regress by 3 WAR? Milwaukee would be paying $20+ mil for a below-replacement 1B. So, no, Dave’s analysis doesn’t argue against that, because quite frankly Braun isn’t Pujols even on his best day. Hell, his best HOUR.
Really? That last line was one of the dumbest comments I have ever written. Braun can’t match Pujols in his best hour? Braun is OPSing almost .300 more than Pujols so far this, so you are obviously wrong
Did you call that line dumb and then claim ownership of it?
They are already financially handcuffed this just makes it even worse for the future. If they could have structured it to balance the money out over the length of the deal, it would have been better but they are paying an aging outfielder who is barely worth 19 million right now in his prime 19 million for 5 years, bad stuff. Melvin panicked because he knows nobody else will likely be able to stay.
diagreed. you assume they are handcuffed but have increased payroll repeatedly in recent years. The deal is structured VERY club-friendly, so obviously you didn’t look at it in detail. some of the money is even deferred, so it will allow them more leeway with other players. They guy is also 26, hardly ‘an aging outfielder’. You’re also assuming that 19M in five years will get just as much as 19M does now, which it wont. 19M in 5 years, is probably about what 12-15M is now…
Hey Robby Werth and Braun are both about 4.2 WAR players. Werth is not a defensive liability, the Nationals needed a franchise veteran, they unlike the Brewers have an excellent farm system and the payroll to absorb a bad deal. The Werth deal has more chance of being good than Braun.
Werth has maxed out his ability and is 4years older. Look at their numbers, and you’ll see the better player. Braun isn’t a goldglove LF, but is not a liability either. You say the Nats needed a franchise vet – well why don’t the Brewers? You say they have the payroll to absorb a bad deal -what makes you say the Brewers can’t?
Sure, Werth is four years older. Braun’s new contract doesn’t kick in for another five years.
Not that your point is necessarily invalid, but this bugs me.
I’m pretty sure the Brewers could still get a great haul for Braun if they traded him tomorrow. The Nats would have to take back someone like Soriano or John Lackey to get rid of Werth right now.
2015: Werth-21M age 35. Braun-19M, age 31
same for 2016 and 2017 and tell me what deal is worse…
In the discussion for worst contracts in baseball:
Vernon Wells
Jason Werth
Ryan Braun
Ryan Howard
Johan Santana and Joe Mauer could be on this list too…depending on their recovery from their current injury (Santana) and long-term potential to break down. In addition, Mauer doesn’t seem like he’ll be a catcher much longer and he isn’t nearly as valuable if he’s playing 3d and definitely not if he’s playing 1st.
Jake Peavy is very upset you forgot him. Also the Lackey deal is pretty bad. And you have to include A-Rod since no one would trade for that deal. And you forgot the Soriano and Zito deals which, iirc, never end.
I don’t think Braun is in the Worst Contract in Baseball discussion at the moment. It’s an odd signing yes, but if I was a GM I’d roll the dice with the Braun deal over Werth, Wells, Soriano, Zito, A-Rod and Peavy deals (would any of those GMs say “no” to Braun for “bad contract player X”?)
” Also the Lackey deal is pretty bad”
Lackey is due 16.5M a year. He was a 4WAR player last year. Thats worth..16M at Current WAR valuations.
And thats during a year where he spent most of the season flying back and forth between CA and MA because his wife was diagnosed with Cancer and was being treated in CA.
Even if Lackey’s ERA/FIP/WHATEVER jump up to almost 5, the Red Sox will still only lose about $20M on that deal. I don’t like the fact that the Red Sox signed him, but its a pretty risk adverse deal.
If Joe Mauer can handle third base, I’d move him there tomorrow, and I’d think I had a pretty damned valuable third baseman. How many third basemen in baseball can put up a (or the equivalent of a) 320/400/460 line? He’s 27; if I get five or six years of that kind of production out of my third baseman, and then a couple of years of gentle decline, he earns his contract.
The fact that he’s the best catcher in baseball in the meantime adds to his value, if he sticks there a while, but I don’t think he has to stick there to earn his contract. If he’s a 1B/DH, then you have to worry.
It is worse for the simple fact that they had him locked up prior to this deal. It is more reasonable to think he will decline in his early to mid thirties when Werth is already in his and nothing has happenend yet. They had him until 16′ already and even if he was playing as good in 17′ as he is now he still is barely worth 19 million. They could have waited and possibly paid less. Melvin jumped the gun because Je knows Greinke and Fielder are leaving no matter what.
Didn’t know Greinke was planning on leaving. He’s a Brewer through 2012. Hasn’t even pitched in a regular season game yet. How do you know he is planning on leaving? He waived a no trade clause to come to Milwaukee. He wants to be on a winning team. I think Milwaukee can be that team. Time will tell as the season progresses. Fielder is gone, get over it.
Thanks Otter – you’re right as there are some other candidates.
I don’t think Peavy is on the list because his contract doesn’t have that much longer. Soriano, Zito, and Lackey are definitely awful, though.
Some of you guys are way, way too wrapped up in WAR and nit-picking dollars. Here’s Braun, a guy with a career .308/.367/.557 *non-roided* career line, elite contact skills for a power hitter (80% career), a great attitude and a commitment to his team/city.
The defense isn’t gold-glove; so what? He’s not a Juan Pierre or Johnny Damon liability. I get that he doesn’t play a premium defensive position like SS or 2B, but players at those infield positions absolutely have a higher risk of injury, both minor and catastrophic.
And aging shouldn’t be a big deal with Braun, as he’s got probably one of the top physiques in all of baseball, and definitely isn’t one of the big, lumbering dinosaurs who seem to not last much longer than 30/31 (Hafner comes to mind).
All in all I don’t see what’s wrong for paying a little extra for a legitimately elite hitter who is consistent, committed to the team, an extremely low injury risk and won’t kill a team defensively.
“Johnny Damon liability”
Thats the whole point. At his age, Johnny Damon was a Plus defensive CF’er. Now hes a terrible LF’er/DH.
Braun is a negative LF’er already. HE WILL be a Johnny Damon liability before teh end of this deal.
Good to know you have a crystal ball, can I borrow it sometime?
I don’t think it’s fair to compare Howard and Braun on defense. Howard is already pretty terrible at 1b, and in the NL there’s really nowhere else to stick him. Braun should continue to play an average (or slightly below average LF) for a while, and if he gets slower/bigger, he can be moved to 1b, where presumably he can play passably on defense. I.e., by the end of their contracts, it seems very possible/probable that Howard will be an enormous defensive liability, whereas Braun should at least not be horrible at whatever position he plays. That should factor into this analysis.
Braun is younger and better than Howard with a body type that ages better, I don’t really see the comparison. I don’t think the extension makes a lot of sense for the Brewers but it isn’t terrible either, just a risk they didn’t really need to take.
Also lets not overrate Tulo here. If he played in any other park he would still be a really good hitter and really good fielder but he wouldn’t be the player he is in Colorado at all. That grass tends to inflate infielder defense since they grew it so long to slow down balls and the huge OF tends to inflate everyone’s average not to mention power still gets inflated a little bit. Tulo is a star at home but he is just merely a good hitter everywhere else.
You do realize that Tulo’s road wOBA of .377 is right there with Braun’s total wOBA oof .380 right? That there were 5 non 1B IF (Bautista, Beltre, Zimmerman, Cano, and Uggla) who had a higher total wOBA than Tulowitzki’s .377 and all 5 were All-stars last year?
Perhaps all these extensions are owners way of expressing a view on the dollar. 20M in 2020 may turn out to be much less than it seems to be today.
Yes, because baseball owners are just exactly who I want to turn to for economic forecast in 2020.
Billion dollar baseball owners probably consult with the people you would want to turn to for economic forecast in 2020.
Why not? The Wilpons are clearly sophisticated investors.
Although, I would give some value to John Henry’s opinion.
https://www.tcw.com/About_TCW/Our_People/Bios/Mark_Attanasio.aspx
Mark Attanasio (the Brewers majority shareholder) is an investment banker by trade. He probably knows a bit about the economic forecast of 2020. That undoubtedly played a role in this deal.
The world’s best economists would tell you it’s a fool’s errand to try to predict what the economy might do in the next two years, let alone in 2020. The fact that the Brewers majority holder is an investment banker, if he actually did approve this deal because of his belief what the dollar might be worth NINE years from now, he just might be too full of himself to think that he’s better than most economists. Which, btw, is the PRIMARY reason why I would not be turning to baseball owners for economic forecast of 2020.
No one–not even a hallowed investment banker–can reliably forecast macroeconomic conditions eight years into the future. This has been demonstrated repeatedly and convincingly in financial literature (by Bernstein, Taleb, etc.).
More anecdotally, read Alan Greenspan’s memoir. As Chairman of the Fed, he was worried in the late-90’s that the U.S. would soon be investing their own sovereign wealth fund, i.e., that we would be running a large annual surplus. Eight years later (indeed, even three or four years later), that concern was tragically comical.
The brightest economic minds on the planet routinely fail miserably at anything beyond short-term forecasting. There is no reason to believe that Attanasio is any different in this respect.
Predicting and betting an exact outcome is alot different than identifying a scenario and looking to capture that upside.
You sound like every other gambler in Las Vegas with that comment.
“Braun has been worth between +4 to +5 wins each of the last three seasons; Howard’s value is less consistent but averaged in that range as well. ”
I like how Cameron is not even bothering with facts anymore. Just making up ridiculous things as he goes.
3.1 + 4.8 +2.0 = 9.9 WAR
9.9/3 = 3.3 WAR average
He has not “averaged in that range”. Nor is it particularly close. (>1WAR differential between the two)
Editing fails me. The last part should be close between Braun and Howard. Braun is markedly better over the past 3 years.
Garrett, he said “averaged,” i.e. he looked at Howard’s age 25-27 seasons to compare to Braun. It’s you who’s being lazy and try to justify your argument by comparing apples to oranges.
” he looked at Howard’s age 25-27 seasons to compare to Braun. It’s ”
Its kind of irrelevant what Howard did at 25-27 because Howard has declined significantly from that time. Braun MIGHT decline, but Howard already has.
IE, the risk of the Braun deal is you get Howard. The upside is much higher.
“Garrett, he said “averaged,” i.e. he looked at Howard’s age 25-27 seasons to compare to Braun. It’s you who’s being lazy and try to justify your argument by comparing apples to oranges.”
I am going to mock you for several reasons:
1) You’re an idiot.
2) You’re ill mannered.
3) You’re wrong.
Please tell me the WAR for Ryan Howard’s age 25-27 v Braun’s age 25-27 seasons… Oh wait. I actually looked this shit up (unlike you). Braun is 27 now. He couldn’t possibly have used Braun’s age 27 season as it isn’t in the books. If you wanna assume he took Braun’s 24-26 season’s as comparisons (the ones we have full data on)… Howard is still way off the WAR mark (since he was part time 2 of those years which makes this comparison even more retarded).
Please save the ridiculously stupid shit for your mother, spare the rest of us.
@RC, isn’t that the POINT of his article? I think a three-year-old would know it’s only a possibility that Braun would decline, since it HASN’T happened yet. Obviously Dave’s opinion is that he will decline just like Howard, because history tells us so. You obviously don’t believe that, hence why you’re using arguments like “Howard has declined, but Braun hasn’t.” Nobody is saying Howard’s deal is actually good… I think we all started with the premise it’s one of the worst deals in MLB. The debate, of course, is whether Braun’s deal is just as bad, and I would have to say yes, because the same logic that made Howard’s deal bad applies here… Brewers could have probably gotten Braun signed to the SAME deal three years from now, but they’ll go into the deal having more information on 1) whether he will decline gracefully or not; and 2) spare themselves of three years of injury risk. There was really no reason to sign this deal at all.
Then again, don’t lose hope Brewers fans. When Braun is 33 and is a former shell of himself, you can always hope the Angels will trade for his contract aka Vernon Wells.
He is not saying Howard averaged in that range over the past three years; he is saying over his career, which I’m sure is much higher (I am too lazy to look it up)
Umm… No. Any of you who disagree with me need to reread the article.
“Garrett, he said “averaged,” i.e. he looked at Howard’s age 25-27 seasons to compare to Braun. It’s you who’s being lazy and try to justify your argument by comparing apples to oranges.”
This is absurd. He doesn’t claim this. He specifically says: “each of the last three seasons”. Save the insults for someone actually lazy and idiotic (such as yourself).
“He is not saying Howard averaged in that range over the past three years; he is saying over his career, which I’m sure is much higher (I am too lazy to look it up)”
Again what does “each of the last three seasons” mean?!? English is a complex language, but I think even a reader of your ability could figure this out after some thought.
Seeing as how the rest of us don’t have to resort to calling people names to make our point, and we obviously read the article differently than you did, makes me kinda think it’s you who obviously don’t use thought when you read these articles.
Phillie, he’s clearly not looking at Howard’s equivalent to Braun’s age 24-26 or 25-27 seasons.
For one thing, Howard’s age 24 season consisted of 42 PAs.
For another thing, it clearly states in the article “Braun has been worth between +4 to +5 wins each of the last three seasons; Howard’s value is less consistent but averaged in that range as well.”
What Garrett is pointing out, quite rightly, is that’s not at all true.
Howard has in fact been worth 3.1, 4.8 and 2.0 WAR. That’s an average of a touch over 3 WAR per season, nowhere near the 4 to 5 range.
So given Cameron’s faulty/lazy premise, the rest of his point seems to fall apart. I don’t know where you’re coming from on this.
Phillie… Are you fucking retarded?
“It’s you who’s being lazy and try to justify your argument by comparing apples to oranges.”
I can see what you wrote. It doesn’t magically disappear.
In the same reply where you accused the author of being lazy and not checking his facts, I basically called you out. Yes, that’s the same as calling people “retarded” and “stupid.” Just like how we are all not as good at the English language as you, right, or are you saying “apples and oranges” is calling you names? Don’t dish out criticism when you can’t take any.
In any case, I’m done arguing with you. This will go nowhere.
@AJS,
Whatever disagreement we may have about exactly what seasons Dave used to compare Braun and Howard, I think we should ALL at least agree that using the last three seasons of Howard and Braun’s numbers, when Howard is 4 years older than Braun, is disingenuous at best, and downright stubborn when 10 people have already pointed that out in the comments section. In fact, no one has even brought up Howard’s 6.1 WAR MVP season, which by the way despite Braun being a “superior” player as you suggest, he hasn’t done yet. And oh, that was Howard’s age 27 season, which means Braun should have done that last year already if you really want to compare in that much of a detail.
As far as Dave’s sentence. I think if you just read it by itself sure it can be interpreted that way. However, I think if you read it in the context of his article, where he clearly denoted an intention to compare the two by taking their ages into account, I think you would read that sentence differently. I don’t think Dave, or any baseball fan for that matter, would have forgotten Howard’s subpar year last year.
Have you still not figured out how old these players are or when baseball players typically peak?
PS: You’re still a stupid fuck.
How is Jason Bay an eerily similar player to Braun? Bay has hit for over .300 ONCE in his career, while Braun is consistently above .300
Also, Bay walks almost twice as much as Braun.
I’d say he is closer to Vlad but much worse defensively. Both free swingers with good power who hit for a high avg.
Also, Remetee.
Bay strikes out more than Braun does, doesn’t make as solid contact in general and has less power. He is also more of a pull hitter than Braun who uses all fields. I don’t really see them as strong comparisons and neither is Vlad, Braun is not a free swinger in the way that Vlad is at all.
I just do not think the risk-to-reward ratio is good enough for an extension of this type, particularly on a team that has to be very careful with its budget. He is not a premium defender or even plays a critical position, so it is unlikely he ever contributes much value on defense. The offense is nice, but better players than him have been cut down by age or injury. The only thing that forced Milwaukee’s hand to sign him now is to paper over the fact they will likely lose both Greinke and Fielder in the offseason. They could have easily signed him to this contract in another year or two, allowing him to demonstrate continued health and production.
They control Greinke for another year, he isn’t going anywhere.
Let’s assume you have two players who provide the same value. One derives most of it from great defense with an average/below average bat. The other gets gives value from a great bat and average/below average glove. It’s makes more sense to me to give a long-term extension like this to the second, offense-valued player. The defensive player is one nagging groin/hamstring/knee/hip injury from being useless. Hitting skills seem less likely to decline to use injury or age than defense. If you look at players who were very good at both, usually their defense fell of a cliff before their offense.
Plus, we’re substantially better at measuring offense than defense. I think that uncertainty should also play in to giving the offensive player a larger contract.
Greinke is a Brewer through 2012!!! NOT a FREE AGENT at the end of this season.
Assuming Mauer isn’t going to be a catcher any longer, his contract is worse than Braun’s and Howard’s. (Unless not being a catcher gives him back all the power he flashed in 09.)
23 million a year between the ages of 30 and 35 (when he most certainly won’t be a catcher) for a guy who could very well be a first baseman who hits 14 home runs a year.
There is no way that Braun’s contract is worse than Howard’s. Howard is already showing sign of regression while Braun looks to be improving this year. Howard is also older.
Howard has what, 4 or 5 years left? Braun has 10. Thats a whole lot more risk.
From my perspective, they signed the contract early so that they won’t be on the hook in his late-30’s. If they waited until he was a free agent (or close to it), he would probably be looking for a 7-year deal. By signing him now, he settles for 5 years. Yes, there’s risk that he gets hurt or his production naturally drops off, but they must feel that’s offset by locking him up through age 36 instead of age 38.
Thats actually a decent point. The last couple of 30 year old big hitting players to hit FA got some real long deals (Werth, Teixera, etc). They may have just seen this as a way to move that long term deal forward.
Well first of all Teixeira is a Yankee… Normal rules of sound fiscal policy don’t apply to the Yankees. As for Werth… Just because your neighbor jumped off the bridge doesn’t mean you have to follow him. I mean, Howard and Werth? Is that really what you want people to compare the deal you just gave to your star OF to?
Phillie, the point I was making is that 7 years is not uncommon for a star player ~30 years old. Werth and Crawford just got that amount this past off-season. It just takes one team to make the offer, and Milwaukee will not be able to outbid other teams. By signing him now, they don’t have to worry about him saying “I want 7 years or I’ll test free agency”.
That’s not to say that it was a great deal from the team’s perspective, but it’s an aspect that cannot be overlooked.
Well, Crawford plays for the other team where sound fiscal policy need not apply, and Werth, well, Werth’s contract is being viewed by fans, sabremetricians, AND baseball execs themselves as being one of the worst contracts in MLB right now. Like I said, not exactly something Milwaukee wants to emulate as a small market team.
Plus, your point is premised upon the fact that they HAVE to resign Braun at some point. I think Dave’s point is that, no, not really, not so much. They can spend the money wisely elsewhere.
“Well, Crawford plays for the other team where sound fiscal policy need not apply,”
Its funny to see a fan of the Phillies talk about a team not having sound fiscal policies, when the Phillies outspend that team almost every year.
I think inflation in the US dollar needs to be accounted for. If we enter a three or four year period of 5% annual inflation this deal could be a steal by 2015 if he is a 3-3.5 WAR/year player over the course of the contract.
When was the last time the annual inflation rate hit 5% in this country? If you’re gonna try to make a reasonable point, at least don’t try to use figures that prey on the ignorance of people and what I must surmise is your belief that they can’t tell the difference between 3% and 5% inflation over the course of nine years. And just in case you can’t either, 2% over nine years is a HUGE difference.
It doesn’t matter what annual inflation is, it only matters what baseball salary inflation is.
Per CBS Sports (http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/salaries/avgsalaries) – between 1996 and 2008, the average increase was well above 5 percent. In fact, salaries doubled between 1996 and 2002 alone.
I don’t see why we wouldn’t expect something similar when the economy fully recovers.
Inflation hit peaked at 5.6% in 08 months before the financial crisis hit. U.S. is at risk for stagflation- high unemployment, rising inflation, reduced economic output. Happened in the 70’s when OPEC raised prices as is happening today. Inflation stayed above 5% for years. My point was that if inflation increases, I doubt that baseball salaries will increase at a lower rate than the dollar. If salaries rise with inflation, the cost of a win will rise quicker than the past few years.
Fiscal policies of this country has also changed since the 70s, hence why we haven’t had anywhere close to 5% annual inflation for almost 20 years running. As far as 08 goes, if I remember correctly, they allowed the inflation to rise because they pretty much knew a recession is coming, so looking at a few months of data as opposed to the last 20 years is cherry-picking.
But regardless, I will at least concede to AJS’s point as a possibility, but I will point out that the original statement talked about the value of the dollar, not baseball contracts. Plus it wouldn’t be a “steal” even if Braun avg’ed 3 WAR between 2015-2020. He would be playing at about his worth for the length of the extension. That’s not really a steal in my book.
Alternatively, if we enter a 3-4 year period where unemployment remains high, median income remains low, and attendance remains depressed, this deal could look horrendous for the small town Brewers by 2015 when they’re in bankruptcy proceedings.
I wont say its a great deal, but the people who are putting this in discussion with the worst deals of all time a la zito/wells/etc… are being drama queens. This is nowhere even remotely close to those.
May I ask what Ordonez and Bay’s skillets have to do with anything? 🙂
Consider the upcoming Pujols contract. With Tulo and Braun we are actually talking about players who are comparable with Pujols. I would be surprised if Pujols new deal avgs. below $27-$28 million a year. I think we can detect in Pujols’ behavior a determination to be compensated as the best player in baseball. If Tulo or Braun had the same pedigree and urge in 4-5 years it could get much more expensive. I argue that the impending Pujols deal is a notable event that should affect the fiscal planning of all the clubs, and notice that we are talking about smaller budget clubs with top players. I think they are managing around an impending disruption to player salary expectations.
Ahm… Tulo is just BEGINNING to show that he MIGHT belong in the same conversation as Pujols, and that’s because he plays at a premium defensive position that gets a huge positional adjustment in WAR calculations. Please, do not place Braun in the same sentence as Pujols. Braun’s BEST season so far is worse than Pujols’ WORST season so far. They are not “comparable.”
Does the CBA expiring soon have anything to do with these contracts being handed out? I don’t see how, but I don’t really know much about the CBA talks.
I feel that everyone is looking at this deal the wrong way. The way I see it, the Brewers are paying (give or take) $150 million dollars for Ryan Braun’s (seemly) entire career. That to me, is worth it, especially because Milwaukee is a small market team, so they typically have to over pay.
This company ain’t too bad either:
Similar Batters through 26
Chick Hafey (939) *
Manny Ramirez (937)
Raul Mondesi (931)
Shawn Green (928)
Jim Thome (913)
Jeff Heath (912)
Charlie Keller (912)
Billy Williams (909) *
Mark Teixeira (909)
Ralph Kiner (908) *
Manny has made over 200 million dollars, Thome’s career earnings are pretty close to what Brauny will make (but he debuted at age 20 and didn’t make over 1 million dollars until age 25). Tex will make around 150 million by the end of 2013 age 33), granted he plays a more prime position, but still, I can’t see how this is some terrible move. I was happy when I heard it!
Sometimes I wonder if Dave Cameron & John Hollinger are the same person
Geez, one of the worst articles I have read around here. The contract is a bargain. He is already an icon in the state and a positive role model in the community. He is right up their with Arron Rodgers as far as fan favorites go in Wiscy. He is a future HOF’er if he stay healthy…comparing him to Howard is a joke.
Terrible article. Flat out wrong info slammed between opinionated rubbish.
There is a difference between REAL LIFE and FANTASY baseball. If you are gonna talk real life things like contracts, leave the fantasy talk for the birds.
Why do fans, even of other teams, feel to need to analyze these contracts from the point of view of the employer? How about we see this contract as a great victory for the player and his union?
Because we don’t cheer for the players and the union? We want our TEAM to win?
Again, “fans, even of other teams,… analyze… from the point of the view of the employers?” Close reading is a skill.
Or maybe you should write more clearly if you ONLY meant to talk about fans of other teams. Instead, you wrote “fans, even of other teams…”
And even for fans of other teams it matters, because Braun’s contract just set precedent that will raise the prices on contracts for other teams, which will affect their abilities to win as well. Why do you think teams hate Scott Boras so much?
Obviously, as a fan of another (NL) team, you could also say that a bad decision by an opposing FO is something you might cheer, as it might worsen an opposing team’s ability to compete.
Anyways, it’s clear what I’m trying to get at here, no? There’s no clear and overarching, unified reason we would lambast mistakes by an opposing FO with the overarching unity that we do. There’s a lot of identification-with-the-employer for baseball fans. It seems part of a larger phenomenon partially perpetuated by the media.
The comparison is poor mostly because Braun is improving and is already a better hitter than Howard was in his prime. People will point at the dip in power last year but that was because Braun played injured for 2 months and barely hit those two months. Braun’s defense is also improving, he is taking better angles to the ball and getting better jumps, he always had the speed but his instincts have been terrible but have been improving.
The contract is certainly risky, but it isn’t outright bad and it won’t surprise me if it is a bargain, but a bad injury in the first few years could make it a disaster.
Ah… Howard’s “prime” was a 6.1 WAR MVP season. Remind me when did Braun do that?
Howard’s wOBA – .382, .436, .396, .366, .393
Braun’s wOBA – .422, .377, .405, .380
Over their first partial season and first 3 full seasons Braun has hit as well as Howard did in his age 26-30 seasons. Howard’s big year was his age 27 season which Braun is just having now and he has shown improvement at the plate this year. If you adjust that for parks Braun is clearly better, if you add in baserunning to offensive value he is yet another step ahead.
The defense is what holds Braun back in total value.
Hey you wrote that Braun is already better than Howard in his prime, yet you go back to career numbers again to prove your point. Which is it? Like I said, when Braun has a 6.1 WAR season, then you can make that claim. He may very well get it at some point, maybe even this season, but I think it might be a bit premature to say so after one month. Come back in June and we can talk.
Although we’re moving away from the main debate. It’s about their contracts, not which one is the better player. Still doesn’t change the fact that Braun is under contract for TEN more years. That’s insane. I think the last player to be under contract for a team for 10 years was A-Rod, and we all know how well that worked out for Texas, and heck, A-Rod did WELL for those 10 years.
Do sluggers, or any type of star player, provide extra revenue to their team, beyond what they provide on the field?
I’d have to think the answer to that question is “yes”. Sabermetrics hasn’t attempted to answer that question, but I think it’s going to have to if we really want to evaluate player contracts such as Braun’s and Howard’s while considering the total impact they have on a team’s finances. If we’re ignoring the possible increase in fan interest and revenue these players provide, we’re missing something.
It’s pretty easy to start playing around with just attendence revenues. I don’t pretend to have any expertise besides having lived in WI for most of my life, but I would put the present value of the extra revenue from this deal at a realistic worst case of $10mm.
This is the best thing that has happened for the Brewers in a long time. For us to have a owner that is spending the type of money he has in the last couple of years is awesome for the fans. The crew is waking up people around the city and state. It’s nice to see all the buzz around the stadium the last few years and it has all come from are new owner and his dedication to the Brewers and the fans. So when he goes out and locks up are all-star player till 2020 on are team, which I believe he did it so when Prince leaves at the end of the season it won’t hurt as much because we had signed Braun. I will say that we have a special team this year and we will be making some noise in Red October!! GO CREW!!
Braun is better than Ryan Howard? And this guy gets paid to write these articles? Wow. I think your contract is the worst. At least the players you bring up actually contribute something. Howard had a down year offensively last season, by his standards. Have you taken into account what Howard’s standards are? Probably not. Here’s a refresher; 40+ HR’s, 140+ RBI’s, .900+ OPS. He drove in 108 last year with 31 HR’s. He also missed most of August with an ankle injury and played through that injury the rest of the year. Howard put up those numbers with little help last year. Utley was hurt. Rollins was hurt. Victorino was hurt. Ibanez was missing, at the plate, for most of the season. And Jayson Werth had a ton of empty stats. How do you hit 46 doubles and 27 HR’s and only drive 85 runs? Probably because you got those hits when it didn’t count. Pitchers barely throw anything for Howard to hit anymore. Breaking ball, breaking ball, breaking ball. Braun isn’t even the biggest threat on his team. Let’s see his numbers when Prince is gone. Howard has also improved his glove every year. He is one of the better fielding 1st baseman in the NL. I don’t understand how you media types can still knock his contract esp after what Teixeira got, Gonzalez just got, and Pujols and Fielder are about to get. Where’s the one position you can grow older in the NL with the least wear and tear? Um, I dunno, maybe 1st base. I think Braun is a very good player, with the possibility to be one better players of a generation. But Ryan Howard? No chance. ROY. MVP. World Series Champ. Anuual October Participant. He’s going to have a chance at 500 HR’s and 1500 RBI’s. Where does that put you? So Dave, try keeping your mouth shut about things you don’t know.
So just to paraphrase:
-RBIs are an important measure of a players performance
-Braun is a good hitter because of Prince Fielder
-Ryan Howard has improved defensively every year and is one of the best defensive 1st basemen in the league
-Ryan Howard is a World Series champion and makes the playoffs a lot
Less factual errors than DC atleast.
As a Brewer fan I feel the extension was unnecessary with so many years of team control already remaining, but compared to other marquee players who are locked up long term I think the total contract numbers speak for themselves. Let’s start with Howard since Dave did…
Ryan Howard | 2011-2016 | 145
Ryan Braun | 2011-2020 | 135.5
To be honest I don’t see how these two contracts are even comparable.
By my count there are 6 players besides Braun who are signed through at least 2017…
Troy Tulowitzki | 2011-2020 | 157.75
Worrisome home/road splits and injury history.
Joe Mauer | 2011-2018 | 184
Likely to be overpaid relative to production at any position other than catcher.
Adrian Gonzalez | 2011-2018 | 153.5
Solid production but 18 million more for 2 less years makes me lean Braun here.
Alex Rodriguez | 2011-2017 | 174
Will be an old DH at end of deal.
Carl Crawford | 2011-2017 | 136
I’ll take the LF who derives most of his value from offense over one who derives his from defense as offense is more consistent and accurately quantifiable.
Jayson Werth | 2011-2017 | 122
His defense gives him a slight edge over Braun for the last few years but I’d definitely take Braun moving forward.
Stop including the prior deal when evaluating this deal.
Garrett….there are a few ways to analyze this deal and it is not *wrong* to look at the bottom line, after all, the bottom line is the BOTTOM LINE.
Braun’s career is going to cost much less than nearly any other comparable player….that’s a good deal no matter how you slice it.
Further, by extending him now, the Brewers almost certainly avoid having to pay for a 7 year deal that covers Brauns worst years. if you opened your eyes, you would see that superstars dont sign for 5 year deals…..The Brewers totally schooled the Yankees and Red Sox on this one…..no 7 year deal for an aging start….no here.
Yeah… And I’m a better ballplayer than Pujols. There is no “wrong”. Cool idea.
Braun’s career has been locked up for merely $150 million. AMAZING!
A player as fast as Braun should age better than slow players like Carlos Lee and Ryan Howard. I’m curious as why his defensive numbers are poor. I don’t get that watching him.
Agree that the dollar value is high, but deferred money, so many years from now, I think they’re paying a 3-3.5 WAR guy. And, I think he unique enough to out perform typical projections.
He makes a decent amount of stupid mistakes in LF, and he doesnt have a great arm. I think the metrics are a little hard on him as I see him as a little below average, but he sure is no Carlos Lee or Soriano out there.
Everyone forgets that Braun is in a small market, doesn’t get the exposure of the big market teams. For the bang for your buck and the market in which it is hard to keep good players, Braun is worth the value considering what they might have to pay him by 2020. also remember that his isn’t a left fielder by trade and is in just his 2nd year there, he came up as a 3rd baseman, the more he plays the position the better he will become.
This is likely true, Matt Holliday has become a very solid LF as he gets farther from his time at 3B
the comments are hilarious
Is Dave going to write another PACK IT IN TWINS article? Remember he was huddled under his desk in the fetal position after the Twins started slow? Where are those AL EAST is LOCKED UP articles?
Dave Cameron and Fan Graphs has regressed
I agree generally with Cameron’s analysis, but I have to wonder if that was as much of a factor for the Brewers. I can imagine a scenario whereby the Brewers front office personel and ownership saw the writing on the wall with Prince Fielder and made the move with Braun to keep fans from jumping ship in a small market. And if Braun becomes Jason Bay + health, it will not be so drastic of an overpay for a “face of the franchise”. I can understand the business side of this deal, even if I disagree with it.
This deal was an OUTSTANDING example of an organisation meeting a player halfway, and a player securing his financial future (against injury/attrition), and and organization rewarding a player commitment, and honestly pocketing HUGE net savings. Braun was not over payed by Howard’s, or any other big contracts standards. The article, and many of the posts callously overlook the fact that baseball is a talent starved sport. Let me reiterate, BASEBALL IS A TALENT STARVED SPORT. By definition the vast majority of major league baseball players are average, completely replaceable, and irreconcilably flawed with mediocrity. The fact of the matter is Braun is a star player, small market, big market its all the same, Braun is truly one of the best baseball players on the planet. When one of these very few, preciously rare commodities approaches an organization long before his free agency period approaches with the suggestion that he would like to stay long after his contract is up, in fact for his career, you take that deal. You just do.
Then for Braun to allow for a deferment of the payments, interest free. for up to 20 years, HOLY SHIT!!!!!!
You try buying a Ferrari for 0 down, 0% interest differed payments up to 20 years AFTER the car was purchased, and then come back and tell me you were ripped off. Oh I’m sorry, the author of this article is a value shopper, maybe you would prefer to save his money and instead invest in 10 Toyota Camry’s.
Don’t you know you this deal sucks because how else are the Red Sox going to be able to get players?
“Tulowitzki is in the best-player-in-baseball conversation”
I’d imagine that particular conversation involves many dumb people.
He’s only 4th in WAR over the last three seasons and the only guy in the top 15 each of the last three seasons.
Yeah, those people must be pretty dumb.
Wow, so much for Braun being the next Howard. Brewers are going to crush Philly in the playoffs.
Such a wonderful text! I have no clue how you came up with this post..it’d take me long hours. Well worth it though, I’d assume. Have you considered selling advertising space on your blog?