It’s Time For the Orioles to Rebuild
Let us first pause to reflect on what the Orioles have accomplished in recent history.
As a small fish in the largest and richest on ponds, they have won more games than any other team in the AL East since 2012. The Orioles have advanced to the postseason three times in the last five years. They have consistently beat the pre-season expectations of projection systems at FanGraphs and elsewhere. And while they’re not out of the race yet, one has to wonder if this is the year the Orioles need to take a step backwards.
On Monday night, the Orioles fell to below .500 as Dylan Bundy struggled against Cleveland. Baltimore returned to .500 with a win Tuesday. The Orioles’ rotation has been horrible, as Dave Cameron has noted, and Bundy is the good one. That Bundy is the good one is a problem, given his likely upcoming meeting with serious regression, given his middling strikeout rates and fly-ball tendencies. He has a 3.72 ERA, which is far removed from his 4.63 FIP and 5.28 xFIP. There’s not much reason to believe the rotation will be able to turn things around.
And this year, things are different in the AL East. Namely the Yankees are arriving ahead of schedule and appear ready to entrench themselves as a regular division contender, if not favorite, for years to come. The pre-season favorite and first place Red Sox have a young position player core, and a 4 1/2 game lead over the fourth-place Orioles.
In Dave’s recent look at buyers and sellers he listed the Orioles as a bubble team.
FoxSports reporter Ken Rosenthal suspects the Orioles could be a
“misguided buyer.” Reported Rosenthal:
“They’ve already told at least one rival club unequivocally —- much to that club’s surprise -— that they again plan to be buyers.”
You Aren't a FanGraphs MemberIt looks like you aren't yet a FanGraphs Member (or aren't logged in). We aren't mad, just disappointed. We get it. You want to read this article. But before we let you get back to it, we'd like to point out a few of the good reasons why you should become a Member. 1. Ad Free viewing! We won't bug you with this ad, or any other. 2. Unlimited articles! Non-Members only get to read 10 free articles a month. Members never get cut off. 3. Dark mode and Classic mode! 4. Custom player page dashboards! Choose the player cards you want, in the order you want them. 5. One-click data exports! Export our projections and leaderboards for your personal projects. 6. Remove the photos on the home page! (Honestly, this doesn't sound so great to us, but some people wanted it, and we like to give our Members what they want.) 7. Even more Steamer projections! We have handedness, percentile, and context neutral projections available for Members only. 8. Get FanGraphs Walk-Off, a customized year end review! Find out exactly how you used FanGraphs this year, and how that compares to other Members. Don't be a victim of FOMO. 9. A weekly mailbag column, exclusively for Members. 10. Help support FanGraphs and our entire staff! Our Members provide us with critical resources to improve the site and deliver new features! We hope you'll consider a Membership today, for yourself or as a gift! And we realize this has been an awfully long sales pitch, so we've also removed all the other ads in this article. We didn't want to overdo it. In case you didn't read all that, here's the short version. Membership includes:✓Ad-free browsing✓Unlimited FanGraphs & RotoGraphs articles✓Historical & platoon projections✓Leaderboard & player-page stat heatmaps✓One-click data exports✓Customizable player-page dashboards✓Dark & Classic site modes✓Weekly Members-only mailbag✓FanGraphs Walk-Off, your year in review✓Optional homepage photo removal✓Gift articles to non-members
Of course with Dan DuQuette and Buck Showalter only under contract through next season perhaps there is little desire and incentive to rebuild.
But you could certainly argue that the Orioles should sell, and that they should sell everything. I believe the Orioles are best served by beginning their rebuild now. FanGraphs projections have the Orioles posting a -12 run differential and 45-47 record for the rest of the season, which would give them an 80-82 record. While we project the Orioles, at the moment, to finish four games out of a playoff berth, even if the Orioles were to sneak in, they would likely need to win a wild-card game and try to navigate through the postseason with one of the weakest starting rotations in the game.
And looking beyond this season and next, things become bleaker.
The farm system is one of the game’s worst, ranking 28th in the industry, according to Baseball America, and the only AL East system not in the top 20. The Orioles have been frugal in the draft and most noticeably in Latin America, which Baseball America’s Ben Badler has laid out in detail.
The Orioles’ shortsightedness toward Latin America has damaged the franchise. They did sign Jomar Reyes out of the Dominican Republic three years ago for $350,000, but the system is otherwise devoid of homegrown international talent. There are under-the-radar prospects to be found in Latin America for bargain prices, but it’s hard for any team’s international scouts to sign quality players when ownership gives them so little to spend.
In the big picture, it takes relatively little investment to be competitive in Latin America and just spend what’s available in your international bonus pool. Instead, the Orioles have lost out on prospects and left themselves with a thin farm system. Beyond frugality, punting on Latin American signings is just poor strategy at the top of the organization.
The Orioles need young assets.
The Yankees are set to be a powerhouse for years to come, and the Red Sox are considerably more talented on paper. If the Orioles do not begin to recoup future assets for present talent they could make the dig out a much longer and more painful process.
The Orioles would be wise to follow the Branch Rickey axiom that it is better to trade a player a year too early than a year too late. The Orioles face a sort of reverse but related Stanford Marshmallow dilemma. The Yankees have successfully passed the test to date, but the Orioles do not need patience; rather, they require action. A quick acceptance of their situation would allow them to recoup as many assets as possible. The longer the Orioles wait, the longer they are going to have to wait to become relevant again.
The Orioles ought to consider moving Manny Machado, working on the assumption Machado will test the market after next season. Zach Britton, once healthy, is another piece that should be moved eventually, and a deals for Adam Jones and Brad Brach, among others, should also be explored. Machado, Britton, Jones and Brach are all set to become free agents after 2018 season. Darren O’Day and Mark Trumbo will be free agents after the 2019 season.
Other potential trade chips include Seth Smith, who is set to become a free agent after the season, Welington Castillo is under contract for one more season, and Wade Miley has a $12 million option for 2018.
The Orioles could try to make one more run in 2018, but the environment does not appear any more favorable, and every day they wait to sell their assets lose value.
Rosenthal wrote that the Orioles “never would” send Machado to the Yankees or Red Sox. Teams are often hesitant to trade in division. But he wrote the Yankees and Red Sox are the contenders with the greatest third base needs. Given that there is a much lesser market for position players compared to pitchers, the Orioles ought to check in with every team, even the Yankees and Red Sox. The Orioles also ought to get over a stigma of intra-division trading, especially when franchises are headed in opposite directions. If, say, the Yankees or Red Sox are offering the best package for Machado, if they have the biggest need, there Orioles should consider it.
Maybe the Orioles have another unlikely run in them. Maybe they could enhance their roster in 2018 and make a postseason push. Maybe they can beat expectations again. Maybe. What is more likely is the core of this Orioles team will be broken up after the 2018 season and a rebuild will begin whether the club wants it or not. They Orioles can get ahead of it now and begin to infuse their system with much needed young assets, or they can go against the odds take one more shot but likely wind up in a deeper hole. For the Orioles to improve their organizational health, to maximize their playoff-appearance potential in the long term, their rebuild should begin sooner rather than later.
A Cleveland native, FanGraphs writer Travis Sawchik is the author of the New York Times bestselling book, Big Data Baseball. He also contributes to The Athletic Cleveland, and has written for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, among other outlets. Follow him on Twitter @Travis_Sawchik.
The biggest problem is that the Orioles best assets that they would sell–Machado, Britton, Jones–have underperformed or are injured. I would rather keep the band together for another run in 2018 than sell low on them.
Also, can you imagine what would happen if the Red Sox traded for Machado? That would be wild.
Machado might be underperforming, but he’s still Manny Machado
Agreed — I just about drooled thinking of Machado on the Red Sox! And if there were ever a GM to make the trade, it’s Dombrowski. Our biggest black hole of the season has been 3rd base.
The Blue Jays and Rays have better farm systems than the Orioles too. And better pitching at all levels.
As for not trading Machado to the Red Sox or Yankees: what if one of those teams can offer the best talent today, but they take less to keep him out of the division, and then he signs there in 2018 anyway? Disqualifying them because of the division seems really stupid.
Machado wants to be a Yankee and barring something incredible, he will be a Yankee in 2019. Not trading Machado in the division to keep him from hurting the Orioles only works for whats left of 2017 and all 2018, two years the Orioles have no chance of competing anyway.
Atros have Bregman, Indians Ramirez, Nats Rendon, Cubs Bryant and Dodgers Turner. The only true contender with a need for 3B is the Red Sox, and with Dombrowski dealing, something can be done there. Doubt the Yankees give lots of prospects for a player they know will get anyway, and given how young they’re core is, have no need for now.
What I’m getting at, Machado for Devers makes to much sense.
I haven’t heard anything indicating Machado specifically wants to be a Yankee – where are you hearing this from?
Damn, I got destroyed with downvotes jaja. I know here we’re all numbers inclined so saying “It sure looks like he wants to be a Yankee” isn’t gonna fly too good but I just really see a combo of things.
1. The Arod connection.
2. Yankees can almost always offer more money than anybody.
3. Young team ready to compete in 2019.
4. Brighter lights for a player who likes bright lights.
5. The dominican heritage (15% of the Bronx is dominican).
But forget about the Yankees, the point I was trying to make above is that it would be foolish to avoid trading Machado in the division because it will hurt the Orioles to play against him. They can only control Machado not being in the Al East for whats left of 2017 and 2018, then he’s free to sign wherever. The O’s aren’t competing in 2017 and 2018 so they should try and get the most for him now, and the most is Devers since the Red Sox have the biggest need at 3B and the best prospect to give.
Cartulo might be reading too much into this, but Machado does say nice things about the Yankees. See here:
http://nesn.com/2017/04/manny-machado-addresses-yankees-rumor-that-should-terrify-mlb-teams/
But the real reason to expect he’s going to wind up on the Yankees is because the Yankees can spend a lot of money on top-tier free agents and have more space in the infield than the outfield.
People were saying that David Price would never come to the Red Sox (and he may regret that he did, based on his recent comments/behavior). But the Red Sox offered the most money and he came to Boston. I think Machado would come to Boston if the price was right. That would need to be negotiated during any trade talks, I would presume.
True, maybe i’m reading to much on that and the other “signs”, and for the record i’m a Rays fan, so I would LOVE to be wrong on all accounts, but I still think the O’s should trade Machado as soon as they fall out of contention this season and they should look for the biggest return regardless of division. Since the only team not set on 3B are the Red Sox, and Devers is the only Red Sox prospect that can move the needle, I think it fits. Sure the Yankees have a better farm but they seem to know they’re ahead of their time and I doubt they’ll part with some prospects to get a player they will at least be among the favorites to land in free agency. Dodgers, Astros, Indians, Cubs and Nats are not on the market for a 3B.
There’s just no way they would ever consider trading Machado to Boston or New York. We can debate the merits of trading intradivision all we want, but it’d be purely a theoretical debate. It would never happen.
The most logical trade candidate, I’d think, would be Houston, with a package that included Bregman.
No, Bregman would be irrational, not logical.
For which side? I don’t see anything irrational about it. Seems pretty straightforward: a team ready to win now parts with a promising young player who’s not there yet in exchange for one of the best players in the game.
I understand this from a win-now perspective if this was last year’s Machado, but since Bregman is currently out-hitting Machado I don’t think they’d bother. I really don’t think the Astros (or anyone!) is willing to pay top dollar for Machado right now, which is why I can’t imagine a trade happening.
Besides, they might as well focus on an area of the team that needs fixing if you’re going to trade.
So you believe that Alex Bregman has more trade value right now than Manny Machado? Like, when Dave’s trade value chart comes out, you think Bregman will be higher than Machado? That’s crazy. Bregman is barely outhitting Machado, and that’s with Manny at a .235 BABIP. And even with all that, Machado still has >1WAR advantage over Bregman now, and projects for >1.5 ROS. Plus they’d get him next year.
I think that right now, Machado is worth the most to a team that is trying to win it all in the next two years, consequences be damned. Right now, that’s the Orioles, and even if they move out of that category I think some other team that thinks their window is closing in the next two years is the most likely buyer.
I somehow doubt that the Astros would prefer upgrading a spot that is actually a problem instead of swapping out their own under-performing third baseman for another under-performing third baseman with a better track record and less team control.
“So you believe that Alex Bregman has more trade value right now than Manny Machado?”
Absolutely.
It’s not even close.
RIGHT NOW it may be debatable, since Machado really pushes a contender over the top while Bregman’s argument is years of control + potential. One year from now, 100% with you, it’s Bregman and it’s not even close.
Well sure, but we’re talking about RIGHT NOW, not a year from now. You’re the Astros, you’re poised to make a run right now, and you’re not sure if you’d trade a guy who’s currently a league-average player (at best) for one of the best players in the game? That’s nuts.
The Astros are also poised to make a run in 2019 when Machado is a free agent. Trading impact young MLB talent is a good way to make sure that window isn’t open very long. I think they’re close in trade value right now, but you can’t fault the Astros for preferring to keep Bregman.
Well, respectfully, that’s crazy.
You are aware Machado is only a year older than Bregman and has 23 more fWAR right? lol
I would think the Astros are more concerned about 1B, LF and trying to find another SP. If they’re going to give up young players I’d have to think it would be for pitching, but hey, no one saw that Tulowitzki trade coming, so you never know.
This is basically what I was trying to say. You only have so many hours in the day to discuss trades with other GMs. Trying to swap guys off the major league roster who are contributing and might be really good for guys who might be even better just doesn’t sound like a good use of time when you need starting pitching and other spots on the diamond.
Why don’t the Mets trade for Manny Machado?
Because terrible teams aren’t usually buyers?
The left side of the Mets infield is a big reason why they are terrible. Obviously the deal would be focused on 2018. I guess you think Jose Reyes is the long term answer? You think David Wright is going to be touched by Jesus and return?
Oh wait……you’re the guy who thinks the Astros are going to give up a stud 3B prospect with six years of control for one year of Machado.
Amed Rosario is the long-term answer at shortstop, Manny Machado is not the only 3B option in between now and next year, and the Mets don’t really need to pay superstar prices when the playoffs are a long shot.
On the other hand, the Mets make so many inexplicable moves that this wouldn’t seem out of place.
It fits the Mets to a perfect T-square.
Go ahead and make the cut.
Jose Reyes isn’t any kind of answer. Unless the question was “Who should the Mets have just outrighted off the team by now?”
Hell you didn’t even have to mention that Bundy is also facing an inevitable innings limit.
Yes, yes, and yes.
Rebuild now.
It’s already too late to avoid the Rickey Rule on Britton. His value will never be higher than it was this past offseason. Possibly never even close.
The content of this article is good but it is sorely missing an editor.
This describes the majority of articles I have read on the Internet over the past ~ 5 years.
If you are lumping this site with the standards of “the internet” then you are doing Fangraphs a great disservice. If you are not, then I agree with you!
Writing off the O’s is like a daily sport here. And that has turned into slamming the O’s farm system, except the O’s keep exceeding projections and producing ML players. Don’t count on them selling or going away.
Who have the O’s graduated in recent years? Mancini this year, and then you have to go back to what, 2013 for Schoop among position players. So I dunno who these prospects they keep producing far as bats go. And for pitching? Bundy made his first appearance 5 years ago, just injuries slowed him down. You could say Givens from 2015, and Gausman from 2014. So they haven’t really developed any pitching recently.
So I think those criticisms for the farm are pretty legitimate, seeing as Mancini is really the only guy they developed in the last 2-3 seasons.
Yup. I say this to my fellow O’s brethren all the time. Duquette’s defense of the system (he often says the same evaluators writing it off have been panning the O’s for years) is ridiculous. Machado was one of the best products in the game. Schoop was a top 100 guy. Gausman and Bundy also elite. Mancini is really the first O’s prospect to exceed expectations since, I don’t know, Brian Roberts? People have underestimated the big league club recently, but not the minors.
It’s pretty clear the O’s do not have a rotation that will allow them to seriously compete this year or next. They’re not going to be able to keep Manny. And I don’t know if Britton will have any real value given his injury, but if he can establish himself as healthy in the next month then it would be crazy to hold onto him. There’s enough pieces here that a rebuild could be very quick if done right. But it’s gotta be done.
So Machado, Schoop, Tillman, Gausman, Bundy, Britton, Givens, & Mancini isn’t a good crop of homegrown players to have broken in over the past 5 to 6 yrs? Plus Arrieta, Miranda & Davies playing elsewhere…
And Mountcastle, Akin, Sedlock, Mullins, Sisco, and Hays are likely to be the next crop of O’s homegrown players to produce w/o much expectations.
Well…
– the Os finished .500 in 2015, and are .500 right now
– they know their going to lose Machado
– Britton is injured
– their starting pitching is terrible
– they’ve got – what? – one guy in the top 100 prospects?
That looks a lot like a team that should be making trades to build up their farm system. But hey – I’m not a fan of the Os so I’m cool with them holding onto everyone and spiraling into a crater for the next few years.
What about a Rockies-Orioles trade for Machado??? Rox could move Machado to SS full-time for the rest of the season and 2018 (knowing they won’t re-sign him of course), but ALSO expecting that Brendan Rodgers will be ready to take over by the start of the 2019 season. Orioles get Trevor Story in return, plus Riley Pint, and maybe another middling prospect with some upside.
Fits into the Rockies contention window pretty well, and they definitely have the prospects to make it work. Plus, I can’t even imagine watching that infield defense of Arenado/Machado/LeMahieu, plus whoever is as 1st (Reynolds is very underrated defensively, and Desmond seems to be decent in his short time there so far). THAT would be a fun team to watch.
When I think about teams that have a window of contention, I don’t think of the Rockies. But this is the first proposed trade that seems logical (since they have Brendan Rodgers waiting to take over in a couple of years and can offer Story and Pint). Maybe if you think of Arenado becoming a FA after 2019?
The teams to me that seem to have a window of contention are the Blue Jays (who probably can’t offer enough), the Mariners (who are set at short and third), the Orioles (who already have Machado), the Pirates (who can’t replace guys through FA and have some big names leaving soon), the Nationals (before Bryce Harper bolts), the Indians (who are set at short and third), and probably the D-Backs too (who don’t have anything to offer). I’d add the Tigers but their window is already kind of closed. Unless they think they can drum up a bidding war between the Pirates/Rockies/Nationals I just don’t see it.
How about this trade scenario: the Orioles trade Britton and Brach along with Machado to the Nationals. In return, we ask for Trea Turner and Robles.
Yeah, they give up their top prospect and a pretty decent shortstop in Turner. But in return, they bolster their weak bullpen and get a shortstop with not only a great glove but lots of power as well.
With Harper leaving after next year too, it seems that the window for the Nats to win it all is closing and does anybody believe that Ryan Zimmerman can stay healthy all season?
Machado, Britton and Brach could be the missing pieces they need to finally advance to the World Series.
I can’t believe that people upvoted this. You’re suggesting that the Orioles trade one of the best players in the major leagues for a below average defensive shortstop who has a 96 wRC+ away from Coors and a pitcher struggling in Low-A? Screw Story. If the Rockies want Machado, Rodgers would have to be the centerpiece.
OK, so this seems like a pretty knee-jerk reaction here by a Machado fanboy here…let me explain further.
You have to consider that the O’s would be trading only 1.5 years of Machado in the middle of his worst season ever in exchange for 4.5 years of Story who is an upgrade over any SS option the O’s have right now, adding a top-50 prospect in the MLB (actually ranked around 30 this year by Fangraphs I think) in Pint who would automatically become the top O’s prospect (plus the O’s would control him for 5+ years in the majors), and another piece based on whatever the O’s particular needs are. So, you’re getting 14-15 years of team control of high-upside young players for a year and a half of an established, but scuffling star player. It is exactly the type of rebuild trade the O’s should be looking to make to improve their farm, and not completely sell-out their major league roster by still getting Story in return.
It really ins’t the pariah of a trade you are making it out to be. But, I do recognize this is the type of trade that only gets talked about by fans, and never happens in real life (there are monetary considerations to think of – i.e. trading away the “face of the franchise”).
FYI: I can tell you that there is no way the Rockies trade Rodgers at this point, he’s their insurance policy if they can’t re-sign Arenado after 2019 season.
This is all well and good, but they won’t do it. I’d put money on them not only not rebuilding this year, but on them not trading away a single significant piece this year or next. The Orioles front office and ownership are a lot of things, but proactive isn’t one of them. They will ride this iteration of the team until they cant ride them anymore and that will be that.
I have a crazy idea:
The Braves want to win soon, in their new ballpark. The Orioles trade Adam Jones and Manny Machado to Atlanta. Maybe this happens during the offseason. Jones replaces Nick Markakis in RF. Machado takes over 3B. Freddie Freeman moves back to 1B. Or, Machado to SS, Dansby Swanson to 2B and Ozzie Albies is traded to Baltimore.
Potential return pieces for Baltimore include the aforementioned Albies, Ronald Acuna, maybe Austin Riley, maybe Cristian Pache, and any of the slightly above average SPs the Braves are currently carrying.
Regarding Boston and New York, I don’t see how the Orioles dismiss the Yankees and Red Sox outright. Not when the Yankees can offer the likes of Clint Frazier, Estevan Florial, Blake Rutherford, Miguel Andujar, Chance Adams and James Kaprielian.
As for the Sawx, a deal for Machado starts with a return of Rafael Devers and Jay Groome.
Still, I love the Braves idea.
I dont think they will rebuild yet. Most teams rebuild one or two years too late you rarely see a team selling a year after they at least reached the wildcard.
Owners want to sell tickets and you can usually sell the illusion of competitiveness one or two years after the window has closed.
The blue jays probably should sell too when you ignore finances but in reality I think both teams will try to stay there until they are totally done like the Phillies after 2012 did. Then it will be more painful but that is how owners think unless it is teams like the A’s who basically constantly try to compete and then sell at the deadline if it doesn’t work and attack again.
Also the Orioles probably don’t have the best front office evidenced by the contracts and players they signed. The team is basically just geared for power and with the abundance of power they can’t separate as much from the pack and their other weaknesses shine stronger.
You’re right about the Jays, and I think the management is smart enough to consider it. They’ve got a good pool of potential rentals.
They really gotta sell it to the casual fans though since they’ve basically rebounded from bottom 1/3 attendance to top 5. It’s probably going to be a tough sell after buying nothing in the offseason (because it was a bad pool of free agents), and they’re not unreasonably out of the wildcard.
They need to either sell or extend Schoop. He’s an up-and-coming star, and the team won’t be a contender for the majority of his remaining cost-controlled years. Either lock him up for a good price, if you can, or else get as much back for him as you can, as soon as you can.
Please consider editing “there” and “They” to “the” in these sentences.
If, say, the Yankees or Red Sox are offering the best package for Machado, if they have the biggest need, “there” Orioles should consider it.
“They” Orioles can get ahead of it now and begin to infuse their system with much needed young assets, or they can go against the odds take one more shot but likely wind up in a deeper hole.