Ivan Nova Should Get The Joe Saunders Treatment
Last night, Kirk Gibson’s Diamondbacks jumped on the Milwaukee Brewers, scoring five runs in the first inning and opening up an early lead. However, despite having a bit of a cushion, Gibson made the wise decision to pinch hit for his starting pitcher – Joe Saunders – in the bottom of the third inning, trusting his bullpen to handle the last six innings of Game 4.
Gibson’s willingness to not ask too much from a mediocre starting pitcher was one of the best decisions any manager has made in October, and Joe Girardi would do well to follow a similar path.
Nova, like Saunders, posted an ERA that’s quite a bit better than his underlying performance suggests is likely going forward. Neither are terrible pitchers, but they both rely on pitching to contact and hoping the ball ends up in their teammates gloves, a strategy that can lead to rallies spawning quickly and with little notice. Like Gibson, Girardi should recognize that he has a plethora of superior arms in the bullpen, most of whom could offer a better chance to keep the Tigers off the board than Nova can. In fact, if the Yankees have one big advantage tonight, it’s the depth of their bullpen.
Mariano Rivera has thrown three pitches since his final regular season appearance on September 27th – he’s basically been resting for the last eight days. Regardless of the score, Rivera should get work tonight, and there’s no reason the Yankees should limit him to just one inning of work. As long as the outcome is still in doubt, Rivera should be available to pitch both the 8th and 9th innings.
In front of Rivera, David Robertson is nearly as well rested – he’s thrown 14 pitches in this series, and also sat out the regular season finale. During the regular season, Robertson faced six or more batters in a single game 12 times. Due to his higher walk rates, you probably can’t count on getting two full innings from Robertson, but he could certainly be asked to get more than three outs, especially if his first inning of work isn’t too taxing.
At the minimum, the Yankees should be able to count on getting the final nine outs from those two, so the responsibility for Nova and the rest of the bullpen is to keep the game competitive through the first six innings. Here are the 2011 xFIPs for each of the options Girardi will have to cover innings 1-6 tonight:
CC Sabathia: 3.02 (though adjust accordingly for short rest)
Boone Logan: 3.43
Cory Wade: 3.80
Luis Ayala: 4.15
Ivan Nova: 4.16
Rafael Soriano: 4.18
Phil Hughes: 4.90
Nova ranks ahead of only Soriano and Hughes, both of whom struggled with injuries during the season and have track records of significantly better performance. In fact, despite all the jokes made about Ayala and Wade during the meltdown against the Rays last week, it’s hard to make any real case that Nova has the ability to keep runs off the board at a better rate than either of them.
Nova is probably the worst pitcher the Yankees will use in Game 5 tonight, which says more about the underrated depth of New York’s pitching staff than it does about Nova himself. However, in an elimination game where you have a fully rested bullpen and an ace ready to come out of the bullpen if need be, there’s simply no reason to ask for too many innings from a starting pitcher who isn’t better than any of the relievers that will follow him.
Unless the Yankees blow Doug Fister out of the water and open up a huge early lead, Girardi should ask Nova to simply get through the line-up once, and then he can begin the parade of relief pitchers. The Yankees bullpen is strong, deep, and rested, and their best chance for extending their season is to lean on those arms instead of on the arm of Ivan Nova.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Did you seriously just compare Ivan Nova to Joe Saunders?
He’s been downplaying Nova all year. Same deal with Montero.
Gibson’s decision was more about the potential to knock in two easy runs than it was about having a short leash on Saunders. But if your general point is “have a short leash in the playoffs with your 3/4 starters” then yea, can’t disagree with that.
The Yanks fans probably need to relax about 2 notches on this one – I totally understand not liking the comparison between Nova and Saunders, but the point remains. He should have a short leash, as any other ~4.00 FIP starter should in an elimination game.
Weird, meant this to be a new response
I think he underrated Nova just a little bit but it’s still a good article.
I don’t know how anybody can say Joe Saunders is not a terrible pitcher with a straight face.
Joe Saunders is not a terrible pitcher. He’s not awesome or anything, but he is a good 3/4 lefty innings eater. He would be better if he actually threw his actual fastball, which can hit 93, once in a while.
I get what you’re saying, but Saunders and Nova are not comparable. Nova has a WAR of 2.4, Saunders of 1.0. Nova had the much better season.
I agree the Yanks shouldn’t hesitate to go to their pen, they have 2 elite relievers in Mo and Robertson and 2 guys who were shaky this year but with elite upside with Soriano and Hughes.
But Dave does a bangup job selling Nova ridiculously short in this article. Nova was a lot better in the second half, something which you completely disregard. He’s a better pitcher than he was in April and May.
Nova may very well be one of those pitchers who always outperforms his peripherals, like Wang or Vasquez.
Wang had a 60% GB rate and didn’t walk anybody back in his heyday. Nova doesn’t quite have that but he gets a little more strikeouts. I don’t think he will ever be as good as Wang but he’s become a nice mid rotation starter and at 500K he’s a bargain.
vasquez underperforms his peripherals, traditionally.
also, idk it’s a little early to say nova deserves the matt cain treatment.
Ivan Nova: 4.01 FIP in the AL East.
Joe Saunders: 4.78 FIP in the NL West.
Same exact pitcher.
That’s exactly what he said, you’re right on point, well done!
He didn’t say that, but he did list a lot of similarities between them and never mentioned that one is a bad pitcher, and one isn’t.
Here are Nova’s splits for the year:
First half:
17 starts, 91.2 IP
-ERA (4.12)
-OPS (.738)
-WHIP (1.47)
-K/BB (1.38)
Second half:
11 starts, 73.2 IP
-ERA (3.18)
-OPS (.662)
-WHIP (1.15)
-K/BB (2.35)
So be so quick to sell him short.
Unfortunately he won’t be pitching against the mets, orioles, white sox, angels, royals, twins, or rays lineups tonight.
Nova sucked against the Royals this season. They were his kryptonite. He had quality games against Boston, Tampa Bay, Los Angeles, and Cincinnati so he didn’t just feast on bad hitting teams. He also already pitched against the Tigers and almost went seven scoreless until he got in trouble in the ninth inning. I don’t think he will be quite as good tonight but he is not Joe Saunders.
^Kevin’s point was about his second-half performance specifically, as if it was an indication of improvement. It wasn’t.
TB and LA are not strong offensive clubs; that’s precisely the point. Nova gave up 8 runs over 10.2 innings in 2 starts against Boston this year. He didn’t pitch against Detroit.
^Oh, your Detroit reference was postseason. Gotcha.
That should read “DON’T be so quick to sell him short”.
I also wounder if Fangraphs underrates pitching to contact. I get that all else being equal, guys with swing and miss stuff are better. But the individual case must be examined. Here, Nova is playing in front of a strong defense (sans Jeter), and he is playing against a free swinging lineup. Sound like a good pitch to contact guy is just what the doctor ordered for the Yankees.
Saunders was also a contact friendly pitcher playing in front of a strong defense playing against a free swinging lineup, and taking him out early on a short leash was absolutely the right move. Granted Saunders really does suck quite a bit more than Nova who seems at worse average, but I don’t know how leaving a pitch to contact pitcher in against a good free swinging team makes the situation better.
Free swinging lineup? They’re better than average in terms of drawing walks…
It’s maybe worth noting that Saunders gave up 3 runs on 5 hits in those 3 innings. It’s not like Gibson was pulling him for no reason. But yeah, if Nova puts in an appearance like that, Girardi should probably go to the bullpen early.
Saunders and Nova aren’t really comparable otherwise, though, and to make a blanket claim that Nova should just be pulled in the 4th regardless of how he’s performing is pretty silly. I have no doubt that in a close game he’ll be replaced in the 5th or 6th at the latest, but let’s not get carried away here.
I respect the man a lot but Mr. Cameron not being high on a young Yankee player? At this point I don’t think I am peeved anymore by this
Hope he enjoys Smoak’s 0.5 WAR in 123 games over Montero’s 0.6 WAR in 18 games
its so funny to see dave try and compare jesus to some very bad players while everyone else compares him to miggy
You know whats funny?
Hughes last year: 4.25 FIP 4.14 xFIP 2.5 WAR
he was on Fangraph’s top 50 trade value list and was expected to develop into a future ace
Nova this year: 4.01 FIP 4.16 xFIP 2.7 WAR
He’s Joe Saunders.
Same developmental paths and upside, too!
Right? I’m assuming you wouldn’t leave out the critical difference just to look smart.
Awful comments. The relevant comparison the article is making is Nova vs Yankee bullpen options, not Nova vs Saunders. The result is that Nova should get the same treatment as Saunders, not that he’s the same quality pitcher. Given the stats, this logic is quite solid.
The article is making two comparisons: one is between Nova and the other Yankee pitchers, and the other is between Nova’s position in tonight’s game and Saunders’ position in yesterday’s. Both comparisons are relevant, and both are legitimately open to criticism.
Again, Saunders had given up 3 runs on 5 hits in his 3 innings. 3 of those hits were doubles, and Saunders had thrown 50+ pitches already. He wasn’t exactly coasting through the Brewer’s line-up. On top of that, Saunders wasn’t just pulled, he was pinch-hit for with Arizona up by only 2 run, 2 on and 2 out in the 3rd. Gibson had a chance to either let a struggling starter kill a rally, or give his team a chance at putting the game out of reach. He chose the latter.
Now, it would have been entirely reasonable to outline that situation as a model for New York. Because it is true that Nova should and will have a short leash, and that if something similar arises and the game is on the line then Girardi should not hesitate to go to the bullpen early.
Instead, this article seems to argue that: a) Saunders and Nova are similarly mediocre; b) Saunders was pulled ASAP yesterday because he is mediocre; therefore c) Nova should be pulled ASAP tonight. Since A and B are both either wrong or misleading, the conclusion is bound to be pretty shaky.
I understand Nova isn’t a front-of-the-rotation kind of pitcher, but that doesn’t mean if you’re not an ace, you’re Joe Saunders.
To second Kevin’s comment above, Nova seemed to really transform himself after his demotion in July. He picked up a slider that was effective (+2.8) and got more swings and misses.
There really should’ve been more analysis to this than just lumping two “pitch-to-contact” pitchers together.
I agree with the general point that the Yankees shouldn’t be afraid to go to the bullpen.
However, Nova is much better than Saunders, and if he’s cruising, he should certainly stay in. If he’s getting knocked around like Saunders, yeah, they will pull him in the 3rd or 4th.
It should also be noted that Gibson may not have pulled Saunders in an AL game, that’s at least part of the impetus for the extremely quick hook – it was spurred by crucial PH situation.
lame, i think that leukemia is getting to your head yankee hater cameron
Terrible comment and I hope you get banned.
Grow up.
“Nova is probably the worst pitcher the Yankees will use in Game 5 tonight, which says more about the underrated depth of New York’s pitching staff than it does about Nova himself.”
I guess Dave needed to put this is big bold letters at the top of the post for all you Yankee lovers out there.
HOW DARE YOU CHARACTERIZE OUR BACK-END OF THE ROTATION PITCHING PROSPECT AS A BACK-END OF THE ROTATION PITCHER. LOOK AT HIS ERA AND WINS.
You people are delusional. Nova’s a 4-5 starter at best. Saunders is a 5 at best. The comparison is not off-base, and the only reason he’s comparing them is because Nova’s usage tonight should be similar to Saunders’s usage yesterday. The reasons may be slightly different (Nova’s slightly better than Saunders, but Rivera+Robertson can eat up 3-4 innings and the Yankees have great bullpen depth), but the logic is sound.
A 4.0 FIP seems firmly in 3rd starter territory; 4.08 was league average in 2010.
Yes, the Orioles would love to have Nova in the middle of their rotation, but if his FIP is indicative of his true talent, Nova should be a 4 or a 5 in the rotation of a competitive team. Nova could be another Matt Cain, but I think it too early to tell. I think if the Yankees can make a trade for a proven elite pitcher, I don’t think they would hesitate to make Nova a main piece of the trade package.
Maybe they could make him part of a three way trade for Haren with Anaheim and a team with an excess of hitters.
The idea that Boone Logan and Louis Ayala are better options than Nova is a testament to the stupidity of using small sample sizes when statistically comparing players. At some point you do have to use yours eyes, if not your brain.
Joe Saunders doesn’t have a 53% GB rate that Nova does. Ivan Nova’s second half >>>> his first half so his peripherals are skewed. Opponents are slugging in the mid .300’s off of Nova because of his GB rate. He is not a mediocre pitcher, he’s a mid rotation starter.
His peripherals aren’t “skewed” because he pitched better in the second half. That’s not how you analyze data.
there’s also the school of “don’t blow out bullpen when you don’t need to.” if nova is perfect for the first 1-9 with 4 Ks and 5 soft grounders, should he pull him then, dave?
4 Ks? Not possible.
Hey, quick, someone else point out that Ivan Nova is better than Joe Saunders!!
Ivan Nova is better than Joe Saunders.
No.
The general message to use the bullpen is fine. Do I necessarily think all those arms are better than Nova? No. I’d stick with Nova, for example, over Ayala, if Nova is pitching well since some of those arms really aren’t better. Relief pitchers’ xFIPs is not something I put much faith in. Guys like Ayala and Wade are the current fungible relief pitchers of the year that Cashman likes to collect to round out his pens since Torre left. They’re okay for the long haul, but I’d be careful how often I’d put them in a high leverage situatios, meaning when the season is on the line.
After Nova was sent to the minors, he was asked to work more on his slider and incorporate it into his game, which he did. After he returned, his swing-and-miss rate increased from 5.3% of pitches to 8.7%, which is solid and in the same solar system as a number of quality front-end starters. Just like Fister’s stretch run, the quality of the competition wasn’t always spectacular, but over the past month he more than held his own against Boston, Toronto, Tampa and Detroit last weekend.
So, yeah, Girardi shouldn’t be afraid to go to the pen, which he won’t be, but he shouldn’t be foolish and just go to the pen for the heck of it if Nova’s pitching fine.
Game time in half hour. Both starters will probably be out of the game after the first inning. :- )
Nova getting ROCKED
EAT IT, delusional Yankee fans
Shut the hell up. If you are going to use one game as a sample size than how about game 1, which suggests that Doug Fister is awful and Ivan Nova is awesome. You try pitching with tightness in your forearm.
cool story bro! espn forums are thataway…
I guess Girardi was either watching Kirk last night or read this article or is smarter than I previously gave him credit for.
Damn, Girardi is learning how to play baseball. It is about time. I wish Nova got one more inning at least. Hughes-DRob-Mo-CC is going to be tough to blow the game open against.
Seems he had tightness in his forearm. Hopefully not a sign of anything serious. I’m more likely to believe that than Girardi learned any new tricks!
To Yankee fans, that’s baseball.
To Tiger fans, good luck in the next round!
Maybe so, maybe no; and maybe that forearm tightness was caused by giving up HR to Austin Jackson and Don Kelly. It’s impossible to say. It does seem clear, though, that all those Yankee fans who were so deeply offended by Dave’s piece ended up with at least a little egg on their faces.
I can say he’s a decent pitcher with a straight face.. 212 IP with a 3.69 ERA, not bad.
His FIP is was 4.78, but guess what? He didn’t actually give up 4.78 per 9… A team doesn’t win games based on what should of happened, but what did.. His WAR of 1 is ridiculous. Essentially it’s his worst full season WAR wise, but his second best in actually giving up runs.. Which, you know, actually affected the games.
In Saunder’s case, FIP doesn’t represent how he actually pitched.
You’re new around here, eh?
As someone who watched Joe give up hit after walk after hit after walk while his awesome defense bailed him out in virtually every start this year, I respectfully disagree.
KKC, the problem is that we are looking to predict what type of results Nova will get in the future. It’s seen that for the vast majority of pitchers, their past ERA is a poor indicator of what their future ERA will be. So, yes Nova got good results this year. ERA tells us this. Fielding independent numbers have been show to be far better predictors of future success. So because Nova has a high FIP, it is likely he is not as good as his ERA indicates and so he is not likely to get as good of results in future starts as he got in past starts. Their are exceptions to both sides on this rule. See Matt Cain’s and Javier Vasquez’s career numbers. It is possible that Nova is like Cain, but this is unlikely.
I also thought he blew, but you’re right, 212/3.69 is a very good season.
FIP comes down to this with me: Until I hear an actual baseball pro give it the time of day, it will remain nothing more than a misunderstood concept by the SABR community.
With that said, I would be very surprised if Nova is not the Yankees #2 in 2012, at least out of the gate. With a 3.70 ERA in he AL East, he also had a very good year.
Listen to Greinke sometime. Al Leiter also uses it, although he’s only a former pro.
-C
I’m not talking about players who may use it to rationalize meh careers. I’m talking about a GM, scout, or anyone in that spectrum of knowledge. I’ve never witnessed any of those qualified talk or write about how, yeah, so-and-so had a good year but he was lucky.
I’m convinced at this point that “luck” has nothing to do with it. Maybe a guy – like Nova – picks up a new pitch and the league hasn’t adjusted yet, or maybe a pitcher is just zoned in – like Ubaldo was 1st half of 2010. It isn’t luck though. Every pitcher has the ability to fool a batter into crappy contact. Damn, that’s their friggin job.
so i guess joe girardi reads fangraphs….