JABO: Bryce Harper, Ultimate Post-Hype Sleeper
I came across a stat the other day that took me by surprise. Someone on Twitter was defending Starlin Castro, and made the point that he’s already amassed 1,000 hits before his 25th birthday. I thought to myself, “Surely, that can’t be true. Surely, Starlin Castro isn’t already one-third of the way to a milestone that all but guarantees one’s place in the Hall of Fame.” Turns out, it’s not entirely true, but this is:
Starlin Castro is only 24 and has 846 career hits. That’s the 18th-highest hit total in MLB history thru age 24, right behind Robby Alomar.
— August Fagerstrom (@AugustF_MLB) March 20, 2015
846 hits! Not bad, Starlin Castro. Especially considering it was around this time just a year ago when many were leaving Castro for dead after he put up one of the worst offensive seasons by a shortstop in recent history. In hindsight, that notion seems like quite the overreaction, given that Castro followed up the dreadful year with the best offensive season of his career and has re-cemented himself as the young, exciting Cubs shortstop of both the present and future.
But Castro’s case got me wondering: do we, as a community, take young talent for granted? Are we too quick to write off young players as one-hit wonders who burst onto the scene and then struggle — even if those struggles last for a full season or more? Seems to have been the case with Castro. Surely, I thought, there are others like him.
Naturally, my attention then turned to Bryce Harper.
August used to cover the Indians for MLB and ohio.com, but now he's here and thinks writing these in the third person is weird. So you can reach me on Twitter @AugustFG_ or e-mail at august.fagerstrom@fangraphs.com.
Harper also had to contend with Mike Trout performing like Harper was supposed to with all the hype, which shouldn’t affect the perception of Harper’s talent but probably does.
Apparently, Trout is a bust too, according to the Google machine and its 323,000 hits for “Mike Trout Bust.”
Was about to make this point. Heck, “Bryce Harper donut” gets you 592,000.
Sorry to pile on, but I was also about to make this point. The incorrect citing of google search results is a pet peeve of mine. “Bryce Harper Bust”, in quotations, gives 281 results, while “Bryce Harper is a bust”, in quotations, gives only 10 results. Meanwhile, Bryce Harper Nintendo, without quotations, gets you 455,000 results.
Super Mario Lemieux: 408,000 hits
Super Mario Nintendo: 40,700,000 hits
“francis says” nets 424,000 hits
I didn’t realize that discussion of Bryce Harper being a bust was a real thing. Are we absolutely sure the Google results weren’t about Harper’s fondness for boobies?
If you’re saying that Bryce Harper won’t be a bust, you’re probably right. However, your piece doesn’t show much to support that. Most of the guys in your list have gone on to have up & down careers, steep dropoffs, or have been out of the lineup a lot.
Also, I’m not sure whether your list output the correct data, since Pierre and Upton the Older do not have 3rd year wOBA’s that are 30 points ahead of their 2nd years.
I don’t think anyone is saying he is a bust, but let him play 150 games in a season before comparing him to the greats at comparable ages.
It’s kind of ironic, that Trout has been what Harper was supposed to be, when Harper still has the hype machine behind him as a precocious MLB talent.
It’s kind of ironic that an article that points out that Harper’s career has been overshadowed by the hype generates a comment that does nothing but chews on the same hype.
It’s simply amazing that Harper has still not faced a pitcher younger than him. It almost makes the fact that he’s 9 months younger than Bryant feel less amazing. Knowing that, it’s completely understandable that Harper is so cocky. How could he not be? Maybe he hasn’t completely set the world on fire but he’s still been well above average. 25% better than average at the plate, and good for 4 WAR/600 PA. It’s hard to believe anyone can think he’s a bust with stats like that.
Seriously “He hasn’t even scratched his potential due to his constant injuries, and he’s still put up 12 WAR through age 22! What a bust!”
Sorry, typo. Before the age of 22.