JABO: Josh Donaldson’s MVP Push
This past weekend, the Toronto Blue Jays swept the Los Angeles Angels in a three-game series, dominating the Halos by a combined score of 36-10. The series represented a few important points: not only did the three wins vault the Jays over the New York Yankees for sole possession of first place in the AL East, but it also featured a matchup of the current favorites in the AL MVP race, Mike Trout and Josh Donaldson. While Trout went 3-10 during the series (all three hits coming in the series finale), Donaldson showed why he is beginning to be viewed as a possible contender for the league’s MVP, going 8 for 13 with a home run, four doubles and nine RBI.
Up until this season — even up until a month ago, in fact — the idea of Donaldson being a serious front-runner in an MVP race would have been viewed as very optimistic. He’s been in the conversation as one of the best overall position players in baseball since his breakout in 2013 (his 21.2 Wins Above Replacement since the start of the 2013 season is second only to Trout’s 25.2), but a strict comparison with Trout in the past probably would have been seen as a reach. That has little to do with Donaldson: Trout is the best player in baseball, and a normal year for Trout would be the best year of basically anyone else’s career.
Then this past offseason’s trade from Oakland to Toronto occurred, and Donaldson showed that the move to the Rogers Centre was most likely going to pay serious dividends for his statistics. Early on in this season, it became evident he might be tailoring his swing to pull more fly balls when he was playing at home, resulting in an astounding power increase that has showed no signs of slowing down in the ensuing months. His home/road splits are more pronounced than they ever have been, showing the influence of his home park’s friendliness to hitters — and his ability to exploit it:
| HR | ISO | OPS | wRC+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 20 | .323 | 1.040 | 181 |
| Away | 14 | .241 | .866 | 140 |
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Owen Watson writes for FanGraphs and The Hardball Times. Follow him on Twitter @ohwatson.
Josh Donaldson good.
I suggest that this title is updated to “JABO: JODO’s MVP PUSH”.
Ugh. Please don’t ever repeat that again. Signed. Jays fans everywhere.
Aren’t MVP ballots locked before postseason? Hence, a play-in game defeat wouldn’t matter.
You are correct, good sir. Thanks for the catch!
So…what was the logic behind trading him for an average at best third baseman, a 4th/5th starter, a guy who probably won’t make the big leagues and around the 50-75th best prospect in baseball?
My guesses?
-Donaldson is already post-peak age, while Lawrie is pre-peak age
-Lawrie has been repeatedly injured, is thought to be better than his numbers
-Barreto (sp?) might be a productive big-leaguer
-And the As and Donaldson apparently weren’t getting along
Neil S., I think of the same thing every time I see how Donaldson is performing.
I really think Beane has gotten a total pass on this deal from media and fans alike.
If nearly any other GM made that trade, I think that GM would be getting roasted but there have been very few words of criticism directed at Beane for his return on the Donaldson trade.
But what if RAJ made the trade? Or Dayton Moore? Or the Marlins?
Worse than roasted; it’s a fireable offense
A’s fans hated the trade at the time and hate the trade now. That said, the A’s bullpen and defense still would’ve tanked their chances this season. And we lost our legit MVP talent – though he likely wouldn’t have been so legit in Oakland.
“Trade a player a year too early rather than a year too late.”
So I updated that to “four years too early”. Big deal!
Always ahead of the curve.
as an As fan, it made me sad. I think they prob figured they were selling high on him.
btw, as of now JD has slightly higher WAR (7.2) than Trout (7.0). So stats say they have been roughly equal. better team perfomance may break the tie.
If you’re buying that WAR, you’re buying that Trout is a worse fielder than Donaldson, which, lol
other than “lol” do you have any specific argument as to why Trout is a better defender than Donaldson? I realize that defensive metrics stabilize over longer periods, but since 2012 (where Trout was well above average) Donaldson has been much better in all years and by all metrics… it’s not close.
trout’s defensive metrics are pretty much in line with his career averages, maybe slightly better, while donaldson’s are as well, but maybe slightly worse. but trout did make some great home run robbing catches 3 years ago i guess….
I don’t get the “Mike Trout is a great defender” stuff. What is the evidence? By the numbers posted on this site he is average at best. When I watch him, he looks like a guy with limited range due to getting bad jumps.
…my personal theory is that people just lock in their perceptions about player defense early on, and then look for ways to justify their initial perception. UZR varies so much year to year that a player can look like the best and the worst fielder in a two year stretch. If the player is young in their career and the good year happens first, they will get labeled a good fielder going forward. If the bad year happens first, they will be labeled a bad fielder. Trout had a +13 defensive season early on, so the “great defender” label has stuck, even though he has had a -8 season much more recently.
Something to consider is that Trout might already be slowing down, which is odd to say about a 24 year old.
2012: Def 13, SB 49, BSR 14.1
2013: Def 3.3, SB 33, BSR 7.8
2014: Def -8.4, SB 16, BSR 6.5
2015: Def 3.2, SB 10, BSR 2.4
2012 looks like a speed demon, 2014/15 looks modestly above average.
I’m guessing that Beane thought that Lawrie was better than the previous couple of seasons suggested, and that the other pieces in the trade made tilted things in his favor. Looking pretty silly right now, though.
the Age fetish has been the downfall of a number of the more saber centred teams this year.
I think that age being used constantly is really just a catch all for cost v. performance. A lot of the time it’s “he’s on the wrong side of 30” but what people are really trying to say is “not cheap anymore”, and I kind of agree with that. At 27 Justin Upton is looking positively ancient to me but McCutchen looks like a spring chicken. Whatever the actual drop in performance is as players age it often seems what you pay someone has more to do with becoming “old”. If you are making 600k and above are above league average, nobody cares if you are 33 (however that may actually happen in real life).
true.
though that doesn’t really apply to donaldson.
and it’s also the removal of another risk factor…which i get, but think might be currently overrated compared to overall risk in general.
“One player can only impact a team’s chances so much, but Donaldson has been the driving force behind the Toronto offense for the past month, and it’s not a coincidence that the team has gone 21-7 since July 23.”
Donaldson has been the best overall player, but check this out over the past 30 days:
Donaldson – 228 wRC+
EE – 220 wRC+
Having one guy hit like that makes a difference, but two? Pity the opposing pitchers who have to deal with that.
Oh, and Chris Colabello with a 172 wRC+. He’s only the third best hitter over the past 30 days lol.
That’s great, thanks! I did also notice that EE, Tulo, Bautista, and Donaldson all have overall Pull rates above 55% over the past month; all are in the top 10 during that time. Toronto hitters have very been aggressive to the left side of the field recently.
Well, Bautista has always been an aggressive pull hitter in terms of power, but his best seasons are when he pulls for power but goes opposite field for base hits (like 2014/2011, not coincidentally two of his best seasons offensively). This year he’s pulling everything which is why his BA is so low. But when he goes opposite field more, that’s when he comes close to 300.
Donaldson is similar (as he based his swing on Bautista’s) so it’s not a surprise he’s a heavy pull guy too. But as you said, he’s hit a ton of opposite field bombs lately. Edwin’s always been a pull heavy guy as well. On the Capital Jays blog the writer pointed out Donaldson is succeeding more because he stopped hitting fly balls to CF and is going to LF/RF more, which is why the power is up compared to previous years. So not just pulling the ball, but avoiding hitting it to CF which means his FB are more likely to go over the fence.
Honestly, I’m surprised opposing pitchers don’t just go away to EE/Bautista. Their power is to pull, and while they can go opposite field, it’s generally not for as much power.
But yeah to your point, Bautista/EE are always pull heavy guys, not just the past month. Maybe not 55%+, but 50-53%. Tulo is struggling and probably should go back to spraying the ball all over instead of pulling as much.
well they stand so close to the plate so even a ball on the outside, they can easily pull it for a hr. And if it’s too far away then it wouldn’t be in the strike zone.
They already stand pretty close to the plate.
I’m guessing they stand too close to the plate.
Also, one salient factor to consider is that these hitters in question tend to stand quite close to the plate. Could be a factor.
For the past week or so, I have been unable to comment on JABO or even see the comments there (they use the Facebook commenting plugin). Has anyone else had that problem?
Not seeing the comments over there is the opposite of a problem.
Josh Donaldson>>>Michael Jackson
I do remember some on FanGraphs voicing similar thoughts earlier this month and finding them to be pretty odd. Donaldson was already contending for the MVP a month ago and now has to be considered the favorite. When choosing between otherwise similar candidates, voters tend to prefer players who haven’t one previously and players higher on the defensive spectrum.
*won
Why do people feel the need to correct grammar even though the point the original poster is making is easy to figure out?
the original poster is the one who corrected her/himself
He corrected himself
Mariners announcer ( I believe, was watching 4 games at once) said something like “Josh Donaldson, who is running away with the MVP race” which instantly made me go look and check the current WAR standings. With that said, I think the perception has shifted to make Donaldson a large favorite.
Great read Owen. I wrote an article about Donaldson’s power surge this season over on my website on Friday, and while the overall premise of “Donaldson is awesome” is consistent with yours, I found a few season-long adjustments that you might not have noticed and be interested in.
http://capitaljays.com/2015/08/21/josh-donaldson-far-more-than-a-rogers-centre-creation/
Compared to his 2013/2014 seasons in Oakland, his average fly ball distance has increased by 10 feet, and his hard-hit rate on fly balls has increased significantly. The thing I found most interesting though, which sort of ties into your observations on his pull tendencies, is that Donaldson appears to be making an effort to avoid center field on fly balls. Specifically, ~41% of his fly balls in 2013/2014 were to center, in 2015, that number has dropped to under 34%. As you mentioned he’s been pulling more, but the biggest change has been his use of opposite field on fly balls: 33.1% in 2013, 35.9% in 2014, 43.8% in 2015. It’s not all about switching parks.
Anyways, like I said, great read. Donaldson seems to have a great baseball mind, and watching him adapt and evolve has been a blast; especially since he’s doing it for my own team!
Thanks, Kyle! I’ll be sure to give your piece a read. Eno did a good one recently about his shift in fly ball direction, and I feel like I’ve written ad nauseam about Donaldson’s various mechanical and batted ball changes over the past couple years. I still view the move to Toronto as a big reason for him being part of the MVP discussion this year.
Again, thanks for the comment. Here’s one of the old pieces on his mechanics you might find interesting — it’s mostly about his fly ball tendencies on different types of pitches, and how he started to bat tip far more aggressively last year (there are cool GIFs in it, I promise). I interviewed a swing mechanics guy for it, too:
http://www.athleticsnation.com/2014/11/1/7144439/josh-donaldson-changes-in-approach-mechanics
I’m the real MVP. Lawrie has totally outperformed expectations and we’d have only been able to control Donaldson for another 4 seasons at the time of the deal. And Barreto, my God, Barreto! That deal was a no-brainer for me.