James Baldwin Has Huge Upside, Huge Holes

When our other prospect writers submit scouting reports, I will provide a short background and industry consensus tool grades. There are two reasons for this: 1) giving context to account for the writer seeing a bad outing (never threw his changeup, coming back from injury, etc.) and 2) not making him go on about the player’s background or speculate about what may have happened in other outings.

The writer still grades the tools based on what they saw, I’m just letting the reader know what he would’ve seen in many other games from this season, particularly with young players that may be fatigued late in the season. The grades are presented as present/future on the 20-80 scouting scale and very shortly I’ll publish a series going into more depth explaining these grades. -Kiley

James Baldwin, CF, Rancho Cucamonga Quakes (LAD, High-A – most recently viewed 8/27 at Rancho)

Baldwin is the son of former big league righty James Baldwin, who was the pitching coach at the North Carolina high school that both were drafted from in the 4th round.  The younger Baldwin signed with the Dodgers in 2010 as a raw, two-way, multi-sport athlete that the Dodgers thought fit best in center field.  Somewhat predictably, there have been big tools and contact issues, but Baldwin’s roughly 35% strikeout rate threatens to sink his substantial upside.  He’s still a nice flier some teams would like to take in a deal if they think they can fix the swing and/or approach, but Baldwin needs to perform soon to avoid becoming a frustratingly inconsistent org player.

Hit: 20/30, Game Power: 20/30, Raw Power: 50/50+, Run: 70/70, Field: 55/60, Throw: 55/55   -Kiley

James Baldwin is one of the most intriguing prospects in the California League. The outfielder checks off all the boxes with his graceful athleticism, tools across the board, and major league bloodlines. But the 23-year-old is currently facing an uphill battle due to his struggles in the batter’s box, which may ultimately deter him from reaching his tools-based ceiling.

Hit: 20/30

Baldwin can get the bat through the zone quickly with his quick bat speed, but it is every other area in which he struggles. While he is a fantastic athlete, Baldwin lacks the athleticism in the batter’s box one would be expecting to see. He can do damage on anything that is middle-middle, but that’s essentially the only spot. It’s a stiff, grooved swing where he forces the bat head to come out in front, creating stiff hands and causing him to struggle tucking his hands in to cover the inner third. This also means the bat head is in the zone for a very quick and limited time, thus limiting his margin of error. He doesn’t appear to be a smart hitter with much of an idea of what he’s doing at the plate. He swings early and often without much discipline and can often get frustrated in the batter’s box. There are too many things working against Baldwin, so even though he possesses the one thing you can’t teach — bat speed –, he’ll always be a low average hitter.

Game Power: 35/40, Raw Power: 55/55

In batting practice, Baldwin displays above-average raw power due to his uppercut swing that possesses bat speed and loft. The swing and spray chart from batting practice is exactly identical during live games. The swing consistency in this case isn’t a good thing for reasons that have already been mentioned above. Baldwin’s power is mostly pull side and essentially nonexistent to the opposite field, but the ball will jump to right-center when he does everything perfectly in his swing and the ball is right down the heart of the plate. Unfortunately, he will never be able to get to all his power in games, because of the significant issues with the hit tool.

Run: 60/60, Field: 55/60, Throw: 55/55

Most of my times on Baldwin are anywhere from 4.10 to 4.17 seconds from home-to-first on digs from the left side, which convert to above-average to plus times on the 20-80 scouting scale. While there’s no reason to round up or down on those times, as he will usually get out of the box and into full gear quickly, he’s quite polished as a base runner, possessing strong instincts and aggressiveness on the bases.

The speed also shows up in the field, where he will display excellent closing speed on balls in the gaps. I haven’t seen him have an opportunity to handle the low line drive to center, which I think is one of the toughest plays to track for a center fielder, however. Other than that, Baldwin is sound fundamentally and runs fine routes in the outfield. He has a chance to be a plus defender in time, because of his combination of raw athleticism and present skills at a young age.

The arm isn’t a big weapon, but it is yet another above-average tool in the toolbox. The arm strength is perhaps just solid-average, but Baldwin’s strong fundamentals allow him to get the most out of his arm strength. He knows how to set himself up under balls to deliver throws, whether it’s just a routine fly ball or a tough play in either direction, and make accurate throws.

Summary

Baldwin possesses a ton of things scouts look for in players at the amateur level, from bloodlines to loud physical tools across the board to an athletic build. But the performance and questions surrounding the hit tool essentially make everything, or in this case the four above-average to plus tools, irrelevant, since it won’t allow him to receive the necessarily playing time to make an impact. He is capable of impacting the game in two of the three phases while even hitting for some power. But he needs to fix the swing in order to make consistent contact, and even though he’s a fine athlete, players don’t usually win the war in their attempt to make complete overhauls of their swing planes and bat paths.