Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 10/21/25

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to my first chat of the playoffs. Apologies that it’s been so long — on-site coverage, late nights, and quick turnarounds have made it hard to keep up here.

Jay Jaffe: Anyway, I’m glad we’ve been treated to some awesome playoff games and series. Last night’s ALCS Game 7 was a classic and a heartbreaker. As happy as I am for the Blue Jays fans in my life, i’m gutted for the Mariners fans — a group that includes colleagues and family.

Jay Jaffe: Yesterday I wrote about Vladimir Guerrero’s postseason for the ages https://blogs.fangraphs.com/vladimir-guerrero-jr-s-postseason-for-the-…. his wRC+ this October slipped from 302 to 280 during last night’s win, dropping from 2nd since the start of division play in 1969 to 4th. Still impressive!

Jay Jaffe: Anway, let’s get on with the show

sodo mojo: I feel like watching Naylor in the playoffs he has to be a priority signing for the Mariners this offseason  do you think 3 years 60M gets it done or is he going to get a 4 year deal given his age?

Jay Jaffe: Heading into his age-29 season, coming off a very good season and the October showcase that he’s had, he has every reason to seek a deal longer than three years. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s after something much longer than that. I do believe the Mariners will make him a priority, but they shouldn’t wimp out. They were so close to that elusive World Series trip this year, and going back to skimping on quality players is going to reduce their chances of getting to the next step.

Lars: How does playoff revenue work? Ticket prices/concessions in Seattle are expensive enough that it feels like one home playoff game would pay for one year of a future Naylor contract.

Jay Jaffe:

Jay Jaffe: That’s from last fall. https://www.sportsbusinessjournal.com/Articles/2024/10/28/mlb-postseas…

Jay Jaffe: As was shown several years ago back when I was at Baseball Prospectus, playoff appearances have a long-term effect on generating interest in a team in the form of creating revenue. for a team that has been on the brink of the playoffs in several years without getting in, then finally doing so, it’s worth spending those marginal dollars to improve the long-term outlook.

Jake: Do you expect Rasmussen or Pepiot to get 200 innings in ’26?

Jay Jaffe: Three pitchers threw 200 innings this season, and four last year. the last pitcher to throw 200 innings for the Rays was Chris Archer in 2017 (his third year in a row). So my answer isn’t just no, it’s an emphatic “absolutely not.”

Jay Jaffe: Expectations for starting pitchers have changed

Jay Jaffe: and you’ll need to adjust yours accordingly

Jake: Jonathan Aranda, product of luck or legit MLB hitter?  .400 BABIP and avgs on flyball/LD are insane.  Will be returning to Tropicana…do they sell high before then?

Jay Jaffe: I wouldn’t bet on another .400 BABIP but he’s a legitimate offensive threat whose performance improved thanks to his ability to get the ball off the ground; his GB% fell from 50.5%% to 38.3% and his EV went up. I wrote about him way back in May when this was starting to take shape. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-long-awaited-jonathan-aranda-breakout/.

As to whether the Rays sell high, he’s got another year before he’s arb-eligible so I’d be surprised if they move him now.

Jos: The Blue Jays limited LHP options seem like a good matchup for Ohtani, but the dodgers dont have great RHRP for Vlad. Who’s going to get those guys out in the 7th/8th/9th??

Jay Jaffe: It’s no secret that the Dodgers’ biggest weakness is their bullpen. Their trust tree is no taller than some of my father’s bonsai. They’ve been able to get around that thanks to starting pitchers going deep, and using some starters as relievers. I suspect they’ll approach the World Series similarly  while also not getting too hung up on strict platoon splits. Lefty Jack Dreyer, for example, held righties to a .256 wOBA, and Alex Vesia .295. the path to beating the Dodgers certainly runs through their bullpen, though.

G: Will anyone (PIT, CLE, KC) send the Phillies, say…$5-10 million for Castellanos?

Jay Jaffe: maybe the White Sox send a couple million. I wouldn’t hold my breath.

ceeeff: what do you think the Yankees do this offseason?

Jay Jaffe: I think the big things are letting Goldschmidt and Williams walk, making a strong run at retaining Bellinger (whom i think is more likely to fit their budget than Kyle Tucker), adding some depth to the outfield in case Dominguez continues to disappoint, adding some infield depth to overcome the early outage of Volpe and the platoon issues of McMahon, spending on the bullpen and a mid/back rotation starter to offset the early loss of Rodón.

Thomas: Springer’s season and postseason heroics have turned me from thinking he has 0 chance at the Hall, to having a marginal case if he has a couple more good years left in. What do you think he needs to do to get over the sign stealing hump, and at least stick on the ballott for a few years?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t see much of a path tbh. He’s 35, has a career/peak/JAWS of 42.3/32.8/37.5, and hasn’t had a 5-WAR season since 2019, when the Astros may have still been engaged in some shenanigans.

Sonny: As much as I was rooting for Seattle I think Toronto is the tougher matchup for LA. A turbocharged Brewers offense with low strikeouts but solid power could keep LA’s pitching honest. Or is this wishful thinking and LA is too good and healthy to be beat?

Jay Jaffe: nobody is too good/healthy to be beaten in a short series. The Dodgers have generally played very good defense this October but the Blue Jays are a better contact team, with more depth and power, than the Brewers had. Their biggest issue IMO is their starting pitching, which will need to work deeper to avoid overexposing their relievers.

Jake: Are you on bluesky or X? We miss the mustachioed metrics man

Jay Jaffe: I’m on Bluesky and have been for over 2 years! @jayjaffe.bsky.social is the handle. I did not delete my account on Twitter, but it is locked and I no longer post there — once in awhile somebody reaches out via DMs there

Tacoby Bellsbury: Is leaving Muñoz in the pen the worst piece of single-gamr bullpen mismanagement since Buck Showalter sat on Zack Britton?

Jay Jaffe: It’s pretty bad but at least Muñoz wasn’t a sudden-death situation like no-Britton. I’m having a hard time coming up with a worse one on the spur of the moment, though.

Dan S.: Based on what you’ve seen from Bieber post TJS, do you think he’s on track for a shorter, high-ish AAV deal with opt-outs? Or do you think he can get a long enough, robust enough deal to cash in now?

Jay Jaffe: I haven’t seen enough out of Bieber to be confident that he can be the guy we saw from 2019–22 again, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s got a deal with an opt-out after 2026 to help him build towards something bigger.

Tom B: Are there any interesting platoon splits among Blue Jays hitters that Dodger fans should keep in mind?

Jay Jaffe: The Blue Jays do a fair bit of platooning to cover weaknesses, but the one that comes to mind is Ernie Clement, who during the regular season hit for a 146 wRC+ (.326/.351/.549) against lefties and 75 wRC+ (.254/.295/.327) against righties but has been playing every day in October and has come through against righties in some key spots. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/relentless-ernie-clement-and-blue-jays-ous…

Dan S.: Jackson Holliday had a disappointing rookie season. But his offensive stats, if underwhelming, weren’t actually that far off from many projections (.304 wOBA, .321 xwOBA). Doing that at age 21 makes me reasonably confident he’ll end up at least an above average bat.

Much more disappointing was his defense. He lacks the arm to play short, but he did not adapt well to full-time play at 2B. -8 OAA, -6 FRV, -10 DRS. Do you think he’ll improve enough to be close to average there? I’m not sure what other options he has unless his sprint speed is enough to transition him to CF. He lacks the arm for a corner spot and his bat might be underwhelming there anyway.

Jay Jaffe: Eric Longenhagen graded him at just 40 PV / 45 FV for defense, albeit with a 50 arm. He does have 82nd-percentile sprint speed, so I think that if shows he’s not able to improve enough at second base, center field might be worth an experiment.

21127: Is there any thing that could happen in the WS to change Max’s HoF odds?

Jay Jaffe: if he starts showing off his collection of Nazi paraphernalia or breaking out a Klansman hood, I think I’d start betting against his election. And to be clear, I don’t expect that at all. But in terms of on-field performance? He’s fine. He’s had an incredible career but struggled this year. He had a great start last week but whatever happens from here on out is part of the normal ups and downs of being a 41-year-old with a ton of mileage on his arm.

The Ghost of Stieb’s Slider: Not necessarily a question, but, this has to be one of the most lopsided “future Hall of Famer” matchups in the finale in a while, right? The Jays have the still-very-angry mortal remains of Scherzer and … maybe Vladdy? vs. basically everyone on the Dodgers…. (Ohtani, Betts, Freeman, Kershaw, maybe Snell?, etc.)

Jay Jaffe: 4 to 2 in possible Hall of Famers is nothing new (not that I’m sold on Vladito getting there, at least yet), and even some teams that had 5-3, 4-2 or 3-1 edges in that department lost World Series (2001 and 2003 Yankees, 1996 and 1999 Braves). Those counts aren’t prescriptive because players are in different stages of their careers; Clayton Kershaw isn’t likely to determine the outcome of this World Series unless something has already gone very very wrong for the Dodgers https://stathead.com/tiny/ckgsS

Alex R: As a frustrated Atlanta fan watching teams who aren’t mine, I’m musing about what separates good teams from good playoff teams. Atlanta needs a manager, a shortstop, and lot more depth. Which would you prioritize, and how would you do it?

Jay Jaffe: That’s a Baseball Prospectus Annual essay, not a chat question I can answer succinctly.

Erik: With Bo Bichette confident he’s coming back for the World Series, how much do you think a) getting back and healthy is important to his offseason contract, and b) if his performance in the World Series can influence his earnings at all at this point.

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think it will have a huge impact on his earnings; he’s got a pass if he struggles because of the missed time. I do think that his rough defensive metrics and recent injuries — he’s played just 355 games over the past 3 years — will work against him as a free agent.

Pinstripe Perry: Of the teams who got past the WC series coin flip, the two with the lowest K% made it to the WS. Is there a team building lesson in this about the value of putting the ball in play in October or is it all just small sample size theater?

Jay Jaffe: I think there’s something to be said for contact ability — we’ve seen some defenses crumble in high-pressure situations when they needed to make plays. But I think it’s a matter of valuing contact in the context of other attributes. A defensive whiz who makes good contact but has only modest power (say, Clement) can be a piece of a World Series team. A high-contact guy who doesn’t bring much else to the table (Arraez unless he’s hitting .330) is still not the type of guy I want to build around.

Mike: How low will the Twins budget get? Which of Ryan or Lopez, or both, will be traded?

Jay Jaffe: Man, i don’t know but it’s looking bleak; it wouldn’t surprise me if they’re around $100 mil. It’s going to be easier to make an impact trade by dealing Ryan, who’s still in his arb years, than Lopez, who’s guaranteed over $40 million

Jake: Should Aaron Boone be fired? Strategically he’s rather unoriginal and makes really bad at adjusting.

Jay Jaffe: I think it’s time for the Yankees to move on from Boone, but it’s very clear that the Yankees value his other attributes enough to offset his in-game weaknesses. He’s a players’ manager who has solid buy-in within that clubhouse and from the GM and owner, and the franchise player has his vocal endorsement. So he’s not going anywhere anytime soon unless the team faceplants out of the gate.

Jake: Rasmussen, had Cash not completely slammed on the breaks near the AS Break, was over 100 and that was on a 150 IP cutoff/5-6 inning starts.

Jay Jaffe: Yes, and that was coming off less than 75 innings over the previous two seasons due to UCL and other arm issues. They were never going to push him to 200.

Phil: Much is already being made of the Jays all-RHP pitching staff going up against the Dodgers Ohtani/Freeman/Muncy behemoth. A few Jays fans have noted Yesavage and Gausman have reverse splits, so they should be considered more like lefties. How much are you buying this?

Jay Jaffe: not much. Yesavage has three regular season starts and three posteason ones. Gausman had reverse splits in 2 of the past 3 seasons but his 3-year splits are level, and it’s not like he overhauled his repertoire in that span.

Cromulent: Does Nelson Cruz not get enough credit (or interest) for the weird shape of his career? Are we likely to see someone bloom that late again?

Jay Jaffe: unfortunately one of the big things about the shape of Cruz’s career is a PED suspension. Setting that aside, that path is the exception, not the norm, obviously, and I wonde what it would have looked like if he’d gotten a real shot at playing regularly before 27.

Phil: Any chance Tanner Scott or Michael Conforto make the WS squad for the Dodgers?

Jay Jaffe: Scott maybe, if he’s throwing the ball well and if Roberts and Friedman decide that he is a better fit for the roster than Kershaw. They’ve gone 9-1 without Conforto, with Kiké hitting well and holding his own defensively (that dive notwithstanding). I don’t see why they’d change that up.

G: Can Ranger Suarez match/approach Framber’s contract value this off-season? He’s 2 years younger and has comparable numbers over the past 2 seasons.

Jay Jaffe: I think the only knock on Suarez is durability; he’s never made 30 starts and has averaged just 25 over the past three seasons while making annual trips to the IL. He’ll be paid well in free agency

Concerned in SF: Any thoughts on whether hiring Vitello will bring about a needed sea change in SF or whether they have more fundamental issues arising from, e.g., drafting, development, ownership?

Jay Jaffe: The change has been underway since Buster Posey took over from Farhan Zaidi; the managerial hire is just the latest move within that. It’s going to take longer before we see how his regime fares regarding drafting and development

War2D2: Is it weird that I feel a kind of depressed letdown after the game, even though I wasn’t really rooting for either team? That homer by Springer was a gut punch and it’s like I channeled the disappointment of an entire region of fans. Baseball is the best until it’s the absolute worst.

Jay Jaffe: That was such a great series between two teams starved for a World Series berth. I’m a bit bummed that it’s over as well, because those games were a lot of fun to watch. Baseball at its best (except for some of the managing)!

Ray Manzarek: Given they are looking at only one more year of Skubal do you think the Tigers will actually pony up for some starting pitching and a quality bat or two?  They’ve got some nice talent on the vine but as a Tiger fan I wish they’d spend some of that Little Caesar’s money and go all in.

Jay Jaffe: I think they have to — that all-in approach certainly characterized Illich Sr.’s ownership, for better or worse, and now that they’ve made the playoffs in back-to-back seasons but not gotten as far as the ALCS I’d be surprised if they dial it back.

Tim L: With his amazing postseason and the high bar for 1B, how much more does Vladito need to do to get into the HOF conversation? I imagine it’s a large gap, but will that lessen over time due to the new thinking around 1B usage and him more than likely being the best at the position amongst his peers?

Jay Jaffe: A lot. He’s had two Hall-caliber seasons out of seven. he’s got a great bat, an early start to his career, and long-term security but he hasn’t shown the perennial consistency of a HOF candidate. Annual 130-ish OPS+ without extra value on either defense or the bases isn’t going to be enough be to carry him into Cooperstown unless he has a few World Series rings.

Matt: Where do you stand on how successful the Dodgers have been by outspending their competition? There are plenty of cheap owners making the product worse, but do you believe something should be done to curtail the runaway spending that goes beyond the luxury tax? Perhaps even more revenue sharing?

Jay Jaffe: I think there are too many owners pocketing the revenue sharing money and skimping on payroll, and the mechanisms that one could put in place to try to prevent the Dodgers from spending more money are ones that are going to put more money in the pockets of the owners, not the players. So screw that.

The answer to competing with the Dodgers is to push the envelope the way the Padres have — it hasn’t paid off with a World Series trip but they did bounce them in 2022 and were thisclose to winning last year’s Division Series as well.

Jeff in Jersey: Hi Jay. How open are you to the argument Sam Miller has been making that, in the era of expanded postseasons, we should factor in postseason performance into HOF cases? Springer, for instance, has half a season’s worth of AB’s in the postseason and, while he’s borderline at best in the regular season, the postseason really provides a lift in thinking of the value he’s brought to teams.

Jay Jaffe: Postseason performances have always been factors in Hall of Fame deliberations. There are a bunch of pitchers in the Hall who had short-ish careers but starred in two World Series, to say nothing of all the Frisch/Terry VC guys who were part of multiple WS teams in STL or NY. I think postseason can push a borderline guy over the line but I don’t see Springer as even a borderline guy; Pettitte is the example I’d use (and I did vote for him, once).

Welland Jackfish: Re Blue Jays platoons: With Santander injured, the biggest platoon the Jays will make is probably Davis Schneider in against Snell/other lefties

bringbackpologrounds: Surprised no one has mentioned Bo Bichette’s impending return. Assuming he’s about 90% healthy, how should TOR utilize him? Bo DH, Springer RF (IKF out)? Or is he relegated to PH status?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think there’s much point to rostering Bichette if he’s only a PH, so if he’s on the roster it’s to DH and send Springer into the field. Which means they could lose a few of his at-bats late in games if they need to switch him out for defensive purposes — he was rough out there in small samples (-6 DRS, -6 FRV in 282 innings).

johnny dANGER: in your hall of fame analysis, do you factor in lost time to things outside of a players control? I.E. Aaron Judge lost 100 games in 2020 and might lose time due a to strike that could have been an additional 4 WAR?

Jay Jaffe: Sure, it’s context for a player’s career. Ain’t gonna matter a damn bit for Aaron Judge’s Hall of Fame case, he’s well on his way.

Jay Jaffe: But if you’re asking whether I have a mathematical formula to credit guys with lost time, no, I don’t — and we’re already using current JAWS to measure against a player population that lost years to wars and partial seasons to strikes, and to shorter schedules, and… the terrain of baseball history isn’t a flat one; every era has its quirks that need to be accounted for.

Erik: What are the chances that Bieber just takes his $16m player option and everyone is happy with it?

Jay Jaffe: I’m sure he can guarantee himself more money than that, whether in TOR or elsewhere.

Sad Mariners fan: Who has affected their HOF odds the most so far this postseason? Vlad? Anyone else moving the needle?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think there’s anyone who’s really close enough to the point that their 2025 October performance could be the difference, but it’s nice to see guys like Vladito, Raleigh, and Julio who are early in their careers come up big. Maybe a guy like Snell who clearly can be elite when he’s healthy and at his best could benefit down the road but he’s going to have to pound out half a dozen full seasons of strong work to overcome the unevenness of his non-Cy Young seasons thus far.

Erik: Sal Licata with SNY said the Mets were discussing trading Lindor. Is he crazy or are the Mets crazy?

Jay Jaffe: That’s the dumbest idea i can think of regarding the Mets.

Jorge: Had a debate with some friends about Matt Olson’s Hall of Fame chances.  I said he’s only 2 more regularly productive seasons away from making it, they said 5.  Who’s closer to being right?

Jay Jaffe: I’d put the answer at 3-4 seasons of 5+ bWAR. If he produces like he has in his All-Star seasons (2025 included) he has a shot.

Matt: Do you think that Sandy Alcantara can regain his form next season or is a candidate to continue a decline

Jay Jaffe: He put up a 3.33 ERA and 3.89 FIP in the second half so I think we’ll see… something besides the disasterpiece of his first half. I’m not banking on him to be a Cy Young candidate but he can help a contender.

Jay Jaffe: ok folks, thanks so much for stopping by! Hopefully, we’ll be getting back to doing these on a more regular basis.