‘Relentless’ Ernie Clement and Blue Jays Oust Yankees From Division Series

Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

NEW YORK — Ernie Clement simply wore out Yankees pitchers during the Division Series. After collecting three hits in Game 2 — including a two-run homer off Max Fried that opened the scoring — in a Blue Jays win, then four more hits in their Game 3 defeat, the 29-year-old infielder sparked rallies in Game 4 with a pair of singles that led to the go-ahead run in the fifth inning and then two more runs in the seventh, helping Toronto break the game open. Backed by opener Louis Varland and seven other relievers who combined to hold the Yankees to six hits and two runs, the Blue Jays bounced their AL East rivals with a 5-2 victory in Game 4.

While Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (.529/.550/1.059) and Daulton Varsho (.438/.471/1.000) were the Blue Jays’ heaviest hitters in the series, combining for five homers and 13 RBI, Clement — who spent time at all four infield positions this year and started games at both second and third base in this series — hit .643/.625/.929 himself while scoring and driving in five runs apiece. Though he showed a wide platoon split during the regular season, producing a 146 wRC+ (.326/.351/.549) against lefties and 75 wRC+ (.254/.295/.327) against righties, both of his Game 4 singles were off fireballing righty Cam Schlittler, who was very good if not nearly as dominant as he had been against the Red Sox in the Wild Card Series finale.

“I think Ernie Clement has made everyone aware of how good he is,” said manager John Schneider after the game. “It’s been like that the whole year for the bottom part of our lineup. You try to navigate it to where guys can put the ball in play, guys can get on base for guys at the top.

“Ernie had an unbelievable first postseason series for a guy that has been through it a little bit,” he continued. “I think he kind of epitomizes what we are in terms of how we play. So I’m thrilled for him, but the bottom part of our lineup has been relentless the entire season.”

Schneider was alluding to the path Clement took to the Blue Jays. Drafted out of the University of Virginia in the fourth round by Cleveland in 2017, he reached the majors in ’21, but hit just .214/.273/.274 in 103 games in that season and the next before being released in September 2022. He caught on with the A’s but played just six games for them late in the season, then drew his release in the middle of spring training in 2023. He signed with the Blue Jays but spent most of that season at Triple-A Buffalo, then went from battling for the 26th roster spot in the spring of 2024 to playing 139 games in the majors, mainly at third base and shortstop. This year, he spent substantial stretches at third and second, the latter while Andrés Giménez was sidelined due to an ankle sprain, and late in the season dabbled at shortstop after Bo Bichette went down with a left knee sprain. With combined totals of 21 DRS and 9 FRV, Clement was a key cog in one of the majors’ best defenses.

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On the offensive side, Clement is something of a study in extremes. In addition to his wide platoon split — which followed up a large reverse split last year (104 wRC+ in 307 PA against righties, 72 wRC+ in 145 PA against lefties) — he ranked in just the eighth percentile in average exit velocity (86.6 mph) and sixth percentile in barrel rate (2.4%), but in the 97th percentile in squared-up rate (36.9%). Among qualifiers, both his 4.6% walk rate and 10.4% strikeout rate ranked among the majors’ seven-lowest marks.

“Ernie has elite bat-to-ball skills, and I’ve seen him cover a foot above the zone and a foot below the zone. With that comes a little bit of volatility with the results,” said Schneider prior to Game 4. “Ernie is not scared of any situation. I think his play kind of shows that, the way he plays the game, whether it’s on the bases, on defense, or at the plate.”

Despite losing the battle of the bullpens on Tuesday night, Schneider and the Blue Jays projected no shortage of confidence, starting with choice of Varland to serve as an opener for a bullpen game after said bullpen had finished the job of coughing up a 6-1 lead by allowing six runs in 5 1/3 innings. Varland himself served up Aaron Judge’s game-tying three-run homer in Game 3, and Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s go-ahead solo shot the best hitter on the planet needed the cooperation of the wind and the Yankee Stadium ghosts to turn a 99.7-mph four-seamer 1.2 feet off the center of the plate into some timely runs. With Max Scherzer having struggled down the stretch and both Chris Bassitt and José Berríos ending the regular season sidelined due to injuries, the Blue Jays brought only three starters into the series, hence the choice to go with an all-reliever approach for Game 4. Though Schneider mentioned that Game 2 starter Trey Yesavage, who no-hit the Yankees for 5 1/3 innings in just his fourth major league start, was available for certain scenarios, he never had to call his number.

One other reason for confidence, or at least optimism on the Blue Jays’ part, was their previous success against Schlittler, who himself was making just his 16th major league start since getting called up on July 9. On August 30 in New York, the Jays chased him after he’d allowed five hits, two walks and four runs in 1 2/3 innings — the worst start of his stellar half-season.

The Blue Jays quickly did what the Red Sox could not in his eight-inning start last week: score a run on Schlittler. Leadoff hitter George Springer scalded his first second pitch, a 97.2-mph four-seam fastball, into the left field corner for a 107.5-mph double. After Nathan Lukes flied out, Guerrero sliced a cutter down the right field line for an RBI single; six pitches in, the Blue Jays led 1-0. Addison Barger singled to right to send Guerrero to third, but Alejandro Kirk popped out foul to catcher Austin Wells, and then Cody Bellinger slid into foul territory to catch Varsho’s fly ball down the left field line.

Varland, making his fourth appearance in the series, allowed a loud single to Judge in the first inning and hit Paul Goldschmidt in the back with a 98-mph sinker with one out in the second before yielding to lefty Mason Fluharty, who struck out both Wells and Anthony Volpe. Fluharty served up a solo homer to Ryan McMahon, just the third he hit off a lefty all season and his first such homer since being acquired from the Rockies on July 25. But the Yankees couldn’t do any other damage against the next five relievers Schneider called upon, namely Seranthony Domínguez, Eric Lauer, Yariel Rodríguez, Brendon Little and Braydon Fisher, who combined to hold the Yankees to two hits and five walks over the next 5 1/3 innings. Not until the sixth did the Yankees even put two men on base at the same time; they did so in that inning when Lauer intentionally walked Judge with one out and then Yariel Rodríguez entered and walked Giancarlo Stanton before retiring Chisholm on a groundball.

Schlittler did not have the same kind of swing-and-miss stuff on Wednesday night as he did against the Red Sox, but his four-seam fastball still averaged a sizzling 98 mph and reached as high as 99.7 mph, and what he lacked in dominance, he made up for in efficiency. Through four innings, he threw just 47 pitches, generating five whiffs and seven called strikes, and from the second through the fourth gave up just one hit, a leadoff double to Barger in the fourth. He retired Clement, the eighth hitter in the lineup, in the second inning, but it required a great over-the-shoulder grab on a dying quail by Volpe in shallow left field to do so.

Clement led off the fifth by taking a 97.6-mph four-seamer for a strike, then flaring a 94.6-mph cutter in the lower third of the zone into left field for a single. He sped to third when Giménez followed with a single to center field, and scored on a sacrifice fly when Springer flied out to center.

The score was still 2-1, and Schlittler still on the mound, when Clement batted again with one out in the seventh, after Anthony Santander had fouled out to McMahon. On the first pitch, Schlittler left a 98.4-mph fastball in the middle of the zone, and Clement drilled it into right field for a single. Giménez followed with a hot grounder up the middle that deflected off the glove of Chisholm, who was clearly thinking double play; the ball caromed into center field as Clement took third.

That ended Schlittler’s night at 88 pitches, 69 of which were strikes. In 6 2/3 innings, he surrendered eight hits and struck out two, and for the second start in a row didn’t walk anybody. Devin Williams, who threw 26 pitches in Game 3, came in and threw Springer seven straight changeups at the bottom of the zone or just below it, finally striking him out, but Giménez stole second on the last of those. Two pitches later, Lukes singled to center, bringing both runners home (the runs were unearned), extending the Blue Jays lead to 4-1.

The Blue Jays added another in the eighth against Camilo Doval thanks to a leadoff double by Kirk and then, one out later, a bloop into right field by Myles Straw; Doval then hit Clement in the back with a 95.7-mph cutter, but he was soon erased on a forceout.

Now trailing 5-1, the Yankees had their chance to tie the game in the eighth. With two outs, Stanton singled off Fisher, and both Chisholm and pinch-hitter Ben Rice drew walks, the latter against closer Jeff Hoffman, who nonetheless got Wells to hit a routine flyball to left field on the first pitch of his plate appearance. Though the Yankees tacked on a run in the ninth on to a pinch-double by Jasson Domínguez and a long single off the left field wall by Judge, he was the last baserunner of their season; Bellinger struck out chasing a low-and-away splitter, and that was that. The Blue Jays won their first playoff series since 2016, when they beat the Orioles in the AL Wild Card Game and then swept the Rangers in the Division Series before falling to Cleveland in a five-game ALCS.

Clement, who hit ninth against righty Luis Gil in Game 1 and sixth against lefties Fried and Carlos Rodón in Games 2 and 3, wasn’t alone in stirring up trouble at the bottom of the lineup. For the series, the Blue Jays’ six through nine hitters — a cast that at times included Varsho, Barger, Straw, and Giménez — combined to bat .322/.390/.424 with 10 RBI, leaving Yankees pitchers fewer places to turn for outs and the Blue Jays to 8.5 runs per game for the series. What they lacked in power (Clement was the only one to homer from one of those spots), they made up for with their extreme penchant for contact, striking out just eight times in 68 plate appearances (11.7%), which in this case forced a wobbly Yankees defense to make play — and sometimes they didn’t. During the regular season, the Blue Jays’ six through nine hitters combined to bat .253/.320/.388 for a 99 wRC+, fourth in the majors from those spots; their 18.7% strikeout rate was the majors’ lowest, just as the team’s overall rate of 17.8% was the lowest as well. Clement himself didn’t strike out once in 16 plate appearances.

“I got a lot of responsibility down at the bottom of that lineup trying to get on for our big guns,” Clement said. “Giménez [who went 4-for-15 with a double] has also done a tremendous job getting on base. It feels like the bottom of our order does something to help us win literally every game. So I think it’s been huge.”

Amid the postgame celebration in the visitors’ clubhouse at Yankee Stadium, where players made beer angels on the floor, Clement was lost the revelry. “I don’t know where I am right now!” he exclaimed. Soon enough, he and the Blue Jays — the AL’s number one seed for the postseason — will find themselves back at the Rogers Centre, waiting to play the winner of the Mariners-Tigers Division Series.

Davy Andrews contributed to this report.





Brooklyn-based Jay Jaffe is a senior writer for FanGraphs, the author of The Cooperstown Casebook (Thomas Dunne Books, 2017) and the creator of the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score) metric for Hall of Fame analysis. He founded the Futility Infielder website (2001), was a columnist for Baseball Prospectus (2005-2012) and a contributing writer for Sports Illustrated (2012-2018). He has been a recurring guest on MLB Network and a member of the BBWAA since 2011, and a Hall of Fame voter since 2021. Follow him on BlueSky @jayjaffe.bsky.social.

95 Comments
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Cool Lester SmoothMember since 2020
10 months ago

Absolutely absurd that Paul Goldschmidt started a win-or-go-home bullpen game.

Another year wasted of the most dominant AL player since Mantle.

Ivan_GrushenkoMember since 2016
10 months ago

Or Shohei Ohtani

David Klein
10 months ago
Reply to  Ivan_Grushenko

Mike Trout at his peak only played a few playoffs games thanks to Artie Moreno and the bad front offices he hired.

Ivan_GrushenkoMember since 2016
10 months ago
Reply to  David Klein

Sure and Alex Rodríguez and Rickey Henderson were plenty dominant compared with Judge also. Judge is great and all but not the best since Mantle.

Cool Lester SmoothMember since 2020
10 months ago
Reply to  Ivan_Grushenko

How many 11 WAR seasons do Rickey and A-Rod have between them?

Hell, how many *10* WAR seasons do they have?

ETA: Downvotes won’t give any of these guys half as many 11 WAR seasons as Judge, haha

Last edited 10 months ago by Cool Lester Smooth
Left of Centerfield
10 months ago

I mean, WAR isn’t fine enough to make those sort of granular distinctions. Particularly when it comes to defensive stats. Throw in the fact that the way defense is measured has changed a lot over the past 20-30 years and it becomes an apples and oranges comparison.

Quoting Dave Cameron on WAR:

“However, WAR is a great place to start that conversation. It is a fantastic filter, grouping players into manageable sizes of comparable performances, allowing for further evaluation of those who are candidates for the answer, depending on what the question is. It is not precise enough that anyone should be declaring a definitive answer based on a decimal point difference.”

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/what-war-is-good-for/

sadtromboneMember since 2020
10 months ago

Aaron Judge is currently challenging Mantle and Ted Williams for the best non-steroid-tainted hitter since integration—it’s really hard for me to take seriously that defensive metrics are explaining this. He’s 60 in right field by basically anyone’s standards.

His fourth best season is better than many (maybe even most) Hall of Famers’ best season. His best seasons are basically *the* best seasons we have seen from a position player in over 50 years, outside of a roided out Bonds.

This is so far beyond people’s experiences that baseball fandom cannot comprehend it. It’s like trying to tell the difference between a big lake (Michigan? Ontario? Take your pick) and an ocean. You can look at maps and see how much bigger the ocean is but when you’re looking at it all you know is that you can’t see either one end.

Last edited 10 months ago by sadtrombone
sadtromboneMember since 2020
10 months ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

To expand on this point…

Most fWAR in a season, 1951 to the present–Aaron Judge is #6, #8, and #23 for good measure.

Let’s talk about double-digit fWAR for a second. That one at #23 is nestled right in between Trout’s two best seasons. The only other position players in this century aside from Judge and Trout do have double-digit fWAR are Bobby Witt (one season), Mookie Betts (one season) and a bunch of players known to be steroid users when they did it (Bonds, A-Rod, Sosa). The two players with the most double-digit fWAR seasons are Barry Bonds (5x, all of them during his steroid phase), Willie Mays (4x, he is also probably the greatest position player of all time), and then Aaron Judge (3x).

Moving up one win, there are only 9 position players with 11 or more fWAR in a season since 1951. Three of them were Barry Bonds (we have seen this before), two are Mickey Mantle, Aaron Judge has two, and Yaz and Joe Morgan have one. These are basically the best seasons of all time, and the only two guys who are ahead of his 2024 are Bonds (we’ve been over this one) and Mickey Mantle. The only one that is also ahead of his 2022 is Yaz.

Here are some position players who have never had a season with as much fWAR as Aaron Judge’s third best season: Hank Aaron, Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols, Mike Schmidt, Johnny Bench, Reggie Jackson, Ken Griffey Jr, Eddie Mathews, Robin Yount, Wade Boggs, George Brett, and Miguel Cabrera.

Here are some additional position players who have never had a season with as much fWAR as Aaron Judge’s fourth best season: Frank Robinson, Derek Jeter, Chipper Jones, Roberto Clemente, Al Kaline, Jeff Bagwell, Pete Rose, Rod Carew, Paul Molitor, Frank Thomas, Barry Larkin…really, most Hall of Famers I haven’t mentioned yet fall into this category.

We’re not talking about splitting things up by half a win. We’re talking about a guy who is blowing away anyone except Bonds in decades, who has made a habit of putting up seasons beyond the reach of unquestioned Hall of Famers. Let’s put it this way: Paul Molitor is a Hall of Famer. The highest fWAR he ever had in back-to-back seasons was in 1986 and 1987, where he combined for 11.3 fWAR over two seasons, which is still less than Aaron Judge’s best season.

Cool Lester SmoothMember since 2020
10 months ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Well said.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
10 months ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Now let’s ignore defense for a second, since TZ is kind of a mess.

Sorting by wRC+, Judge is #5, #9, and #13. Sorting by the Off component of fWAR Judge is #4, #8, and #13.

Judge’s 2024 wRC+ was fourteen points higher than anything a non-roided-Bonds has done this century, and that season that is #2 is also Aaron Judge (2022).

The next one after that is also Aaron Judge.

With a minimum of 550 PAs, the best offensive season by someone not named Bonds or Judge this century was Bryce Harper in 2015, a whopping 23 points behind Judge’s best season.

This is absolutely nuts. The standard deviation for wRC+ is typically something like 25 points (almost certainly more now, thanks to Judge). Judge’s offensive performance is almost a full standard deviation above anything any non-Judge player has done since 2005 (or 1998, but then you get the serious steroid users).

With that same minimum 550 PAs, no one except for known steroid users have gotten within twenty points of Judge’s 2024 since Mickey Mantle in 1957. Aaron Judge’s 2024 is about 80% of a standard deviation above anyone else in the last sixty years except Barry Bonds and himself.

Here is a list of Hall of Famers (or locks for the Hall of Fame) who are known for their batting prowess who have never had a season within 25 points of Judge, so not even within about a standard deviation: Hank Aaron, Albert Pujols, Mike Trout, Reggie Jackson, Miguel Cabrera, and Jim Thome.

And here’s an additional list of Hall of Famers known for their batting prowess who never even had a season within 25 points of Judge’s third best season: Willie Mays, Alex Rodriguez, Al Kaline, Willie Stargell, Gary Sheffield, Harmon Killebrew, Tony Gwynn, Road Carew, Vlad Sr., Edgar Martinez, David Ortiz, Chipper Jones, Larry Walker, Mike Piazza, and Ken Griffey Jr. (Plus Joey Votto). I’m sure there are a lot more too, I just ran out of time.

We’re not talking about him being just a little bit better than other hitters, we’re talking about him being at least one level above people who were inducted primarily for their hitting.

Left of Centerfield
10 months ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Hitter sure. But the original statement was player.

Mike Trout has a 5-year peak of 46.4 fWAR, 47.1 bWAR. Judge is at 42.8 and 41.7.

If we were to stretch it out to 7 years, Trout’s lead would be even bigger. So the original statement was wrong.

If we include the NL, then Morgan and Mays also have better peaks.

Obviously, no one’s denying Judge’s greatness. But there have been players greater than him since Mantle.

Last edited 10 months ago by Left of Centerfield
sadtromboneMember since 2020
10 months ago

Right, as you get from further out from 3 seasons as the window he loses his top spot and slips a little further behind. But the original statement was “dominant player” and no one has dominated baseball like Judge has in decades except Bonds. This is the definition of dominance.

Cool Lester SmoothMember since 2020
10 months ago

…this argument simultaneously hinges on the premise that Aaron Judge’s peak is now over, while ignoring the fact that Trout’s best season wouldn’t be in Judge’s Top 3.

Last edited 10 months ago by Cool Lester Smooth
Sleepy
10 months ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

“He’s 60 in right field by basically anyone’s standards.”

Unfortunately, he’s also a 20 in center field by the 5th inning of World Series Game 5’s standards.

Cool Lester SmoothMember since 2020
10 months ago

Great point.

Let’s call it even, and list every AL player with two 200 wRC+ seasons since integration!

Last edited 10 months ago by Cool Lester Smooth
sadtromboneMember since 2020
10 months ago
Reply to  Ivan_Grushenko

This is not seriously a thing now, is it? It’s like people cannot comprehend how good Aaron Judge is because outside of a roided out Barry Bonds there is nothing that happened in the last 40 years that is like it. Aaron Judge has had two seasons like Mike Trout-level good and two seasons that are Mickey Mantle-level good and people are like have you considered A-Rod? Yes, I have and we are well beyond that now.

(And I a huge Rickey fan, I still think he is the coolest and most entertaining player ever but from a sheer win-you-baseball games perspective Judge easily has him beat)

Cool Lester SmoothMember since 2020
10 months ago
Reply to  David Klein

Trout had 10.1 WAR in his best season.

Judge had 10.3 WAR this year.

It’s his third best season.

wheelhouseMember since 2022
10 months ago
Reply to  Ivan_Grushenko

Shohei Ohtani has never had a 10 fWAR season

BenZobrist4MVP
10 months ago
Reply to  wheelhouse

According to bWAR he has. 2023 (6.1 has hitter, 3.9 as pitcher)

Cool Lester SmoothMember since 2020
10 months ago
Reply to  BenZobrist4MVP

Judge has two 11 WAR seasons.

fredsbankMember since 2020
10 months ago
Reply to  BenZobrist4MVP

imagine using bwar in 2025

Ivan_GrushenkoMember since 2016
10 months ago
Reply to  wheelhouse

He would have if they used the pitcher position adjustment instead of DH position adjustment during the innings he pitched

wheelhouseMember since 2022
10 months ago
Reply to  Ivan_Grushenko

In what way is Shohei Ohtani the hitter not a DH? Did his team get to have a different DH when he hit as a pitcher?

Ivan_GrushenkoMember since 2016
10 months ago
Reply to  wheelhouse

Because the same person batted and pitched.

wheelhouseMember since 2022
10 months ago
Reply to  Ivan_Grushenko

The purpose of using the pitcher positional adjustment instead of the DH would be that in the NL at the time, if Ohtani hadn’t hit then a different pitcher would have. If Angels Ohtani hadn’t hit, then a DH would have. This is not a complicated concept. Comparing Ohtani’s offensive contributions to other pitchers when had he only pitched his replacement in the lineup would not have been a pitcher is just statistically incorrect

Yer Main GuyMember since 2024
10 months ago
Reply to  wheelhouse

Replacement value and positional adjustment are not the same thing. You aren’t entirely wrong on your point, but they’re separate parts of the equation.

Yer Main GuyMember since 2024
10 months ago
Reply to  Yer Main Guy

Just to be clear: Ohtani receives a -17.5 positional adjustment on a per-season basis because DHs don’t play defense. During the time when he’s pitching we probably should regress that and credit him for actual defense played, good or bad. I think that’s a fair approach personally.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
10 months ago
Reply to  Yer Main Guy

I know we have been over this before, but he’s taking the lineup spot of someone who doesn’t have to play the field. The positional adjustment is entirely accurate for him as a position player.

You can credit him for his fielding, but he’s probably a 55 out there. And if you want to include a “positional adjustment” for pitchers to give them more credit for fielding that position, that’s something you would have to do for all pitchers.

(IMO the bigger issue is that the DH penalty is just way too big, but now we’re getting into something else)

Yer Main GuyMember since 2024
10 months ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

I get that, but positional adjustments aren’t for offense, they are for defense. They’re calculated by comparing how players perform their positions defensively. Somehow Tango picked 17.5 and I agree with you that’s extreme. I hope there’s progress on positional adjustments for fWar soon.

It’s a unique situation! It’s not about his replacement level for how DHs hit, it’s about how you consider his defensive value.

Last edited 10 months ago by Yer Main Guy
Cool Lester SmoothMember since 2020
10 months ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Two hills I’ll die on:

Bref has the only valid approach to positional adjustments.

We need an RA9-Pitcher FRV version of WAR on FanGraphs.

hurricanexyzMember since 2016
10 months ago
Reply to  wheelhouse

This is correct, and as a matter of like, net production for the team or whatever, the logic is sound. HOWEVER, if we’re interested in sheer WOW factor, then the part where Ohtani is also a very good starting pitcher should effectively credit him with a pitcher’s positional adjustment 100% of the time, including when he’s just in the lineup as the DH

Cool Lester SmoothMember since 2020
10 months ago
Reply to  Ivan_Grushenko

If you use RA9-WAR, Ohtani has one career 10 WAR season.

He has none by FIP or 50/50.

Judge has two *11* WAR seasons.

sandwiches4everMember since 2019
10 months ago

THIS. How the hell is Goldschmidt starting? He’s been terrible even against lefties for two+ months.

Likely didn’t matter, but this is an easy one not to screw up.

Schlittler wasn’t the fire-breathing dragon this time out, but he pitched his ass off and deserved better.

There is something thoroughly amusing(?) to me about Dominguez’ only postseason PA being a 2B and run scored. At least Boone had half a wit to not put Volpe out there to strikeout in the ninth and hear it from the crowd.

David Klein
10 months ago

Probably should have pinch hit for Volpe earlier in the game.

Last edited 10 months ago by David Klein
Cool Lester SmoothMember since 2020
10 months ago

They’re just not a serious organization.

Yer Main GuyMember since 2024
10 months ago

I don’t follow them too closely, but they seem pretty serious when my team plays them.

Cool Lester SmoothMember since 2020
10 months ago
Reply to  Yer Main Guy

Sure look – the words “too” and “closely” clearly downplay how little you pay attention to the Yankees’ operational approach over the last decade-plus.

cashgod27Member since 2024
10 months ago

They wanted to break up the lineup evenly between L and R for a bullpen game. Makes sense to me.

David Klein
10 months ago
Reply to  cashgod27

Playing the far inferior hitter to go lefty righty is silly.

DavidMember since 2020
10 months ago

If your takeaway from this series is Goldy shouldn’t start, I would encourage you to look at the runs allowed half of the equation.

Cool Lester SmoothMember since 2020
10 months ago
Reply to  David

Two things can be true.

Thomas BertonMember since 2020
10 months ago

Great recap Jay. Glad for Ernie to get the recognition he deserves, he’s had a great season.

Minor correction: Vlad’s RBI in the first was a single, not a double. It looked like a double off the bat but he was held at first.

Matt MartellFanGraphs Staff
10 months ago
Reply to  Thomas Berton

Hi Thomas — Thanks for pointing this out. We’ve fixed this.

SucramRenrutMember since 2017
10 months ago
Reply to  Matt Martell

I think Springer’s hit was also the second pitch. First was a FB outside IIRC.

Left of Centerfield
10 months ago

Clement is one of those “How is this guy even in the majors?” types.

He was originally drafted by Cleveland in the 4th round. They kept promoting him even though he never hit. Reached the majors in 2021 and was predictably awful. They brought him back the next year, and he was even worse, leading them to release him. For unknown reasons, the A’s picked him up, and he was still awful so they released him. The Blue Jays then picked him up, and he had a big year at AAA. But he was 27 years old, and it’s hardly uncommon for a 27-year-old to have a big year at AAA. Still, they promoted him to the majors and he raked in 52 PAs. The following year, at age 28, he became a regular.

Definitely a story of hard work and perseverance. One of the reasons the Guardians released him is that they had lots of higher-rated middle infield prospects. None of whom has managed to do what Clement has in the majors.

Last edited 10 months ago by Left of Centerfield
Jason BMember since 2017
10 months ago

Well said. Coming into the year, the Jays mostly stayed the course with their hitting aside from the addition of Santander, who was terrible and/or injured the entire season. Not for lack of trying, but the front office decided to largely stay the course after coming up empty on so many of the big-dollar free agents and take their chances with mostly running it back with the same dudes who were so, so punchless and unclutch in 2024.

Fans were understandably frustrated – this is the group we’re supposed to trust? Bichette was downright bad in ’24. Another glove-first addition in Jimenez? No real answer at 3B? Need at least another good-bat OF.

But credit to the FO and mostly the players for stepping up and producing. Lots of contact, no easy outs. Bichette bounced back. Springer found the fountain of youth. Production from journeymen and unheralded types like Clement and Barger. Fourth in wRC+. Third in wOBA. Fourth in runs scored. I never would have believed it.

PC1970Member since 2024
10 months ago

Yes, 1000x Yes.

I love when it guys like this have success after toiling for years in the minors. How hard it must be to keep giving it a try when you’re struggling, keep trying to improve, how many bus rides, etc.

Zach McKinstry is a similar story. 4-5 years in Dodgers system, bad in a couple of cups of coffee, then traded to Cubs & similar results. Then traded to Detroit where he got a legit shot on a bad team in 2023 & stuck, probably due to his versatility & somehow, at age 30, started hitting enough in 2025 to be an All Star.

Left of Centerfield
10 months ago
Reply to  PC1970

I was honestly shocked that Clement got picked up after the Guardians released him. I assumed his career was over at that point. But he’ll most likely end up with more career WAR than the players the Guardians kept over him.

jaysfan39Member
10 months ago

The weirdest thing about his time in the minors was how quickly the Guardians moved him up thru the system to rush him to the majors and then give him up on him so quickly.

He played 45 games at Low A the summer he was drafted which is normal but the next season he played 54 at A, 33 at A+ and 15 at AA.

The next season he spent most of the year at AA and was a slightly below average bat with zero power.

The next season was the Covid year so maybe he impressed at the Guards extended camp because then the Guards had him debut in MLB after only 20 AAA games to start the 2021 season.

Prior to his call up to MLB he was hitting 280/334/357 in the minors so not terrible for a guy who would be a glove first backup but the biggest thing missing was any kind of power.

When he got to the Jays AAA team their hitting coach worked with him to rework his swing and try to take advantage of his elite contact ability and find a way to impact the ball a little more.

His first season in the Jays system he hit 12 HRs in 372 PAs between AAA and MLB after having 10 total pro HRs in 1652 PAs prior to the swing changes.

Adding a little bit of power to his elite contact and + defensive profile made him much more playable as a MLB utility player.

Left of Centerfield
10 months ago
Reply to  jaysfan39

Looking back, Fangraphs had him as Cleveland’s #37 prospect in 2020 (40FV). Interestingly, Eric rated his defense as below average and suggested it would be better to move him to Centerfield.

And it is strange how quickly Cleveland promoted him. That’s not normally their style.

David Klein
10 months ago

Obviously the Yankees pitching is the main reason they lost the series but also the pieces around Judge were mostly no shows. Grisham did nothing, Stanton wasn’t good, Volpe was somehow worse in the playoffs than he was on the regular season as he went 5-26 with sixteen strike outs. Jazz had a giant homer in game three but otherwise did nothing and had a killer error. Wells was bad too. The Jays role players otoh were great.

Jason BMember since 2017
10 months ago
Reply to  David Klein

When the Yankees weren’t hitting homers, some of those guys are mostly useless (Grisham, Wells, Stanton). Granted, they hit a LOT of home runs! But when the ball isn’t leaving the yard, you don’t feel like this team is going to string together 4-5 baserunners and scratch across a couple of runs in an inning. Sometimes – oftentimes – you can slug your way to victory. But it seems harder to do when the calendar turns to October.

Cool Lester SmoothMember since 2020
10 months ago
Reply to  Jason B

They’ve actually done research on this, and it’s the opposite – playoff pitching is so good that you have a better shot of running into a couple than stringing a few hits together.

Jason BMember since 2017
10 months ago

Oh definitely! I didn’t mean to indicate the small-ball approach was superior, but if (for whatever reason) the ball’s not flying out, this Yankee team in particular was ill-equipped to win any other way

sandwiches4everMember since 2019
10 months ago
Reply to  David Klein

Aaron Judge: .600/..684/.933
All other Yankees: .206/.238/.339 (my math might be a bit off on the OBP)

Jason BMember since 2017
10 months ago

Poor managing by Boone – should have batted Judge 2nd, 4th, 5th, 7th, and 9th in the order.

TheGarrettCooperFanClub
10 months ago
Reply to  David Klein

Grisham basically did nothing for all of September too. He hit some HRs and some in timely spots, but he was overall pretty bad for the month and I hope they don’t give him a big contract off this season.

Willians Astu-stu-studilloMember since 2020
10 months ago

I don’t see any reason to weight September more heavily than the rest of the season. Especially when that was his worst BABIP month.

jtsnowdayMember since 2022
10 months ago
Reply to  David Klein

Doesn’t seem fair to say Jazz “otherwise did nothing” when there was a whole article about the leading role he played in saving the Yankees from getting swept in WCG2: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/yankees-jazz-it-up-even-their-series-with-red-sox/

Seeforman
10 months ago

Guess we’re only going to get one Fangraphs recap of the Jays win, as opposed to the two for the Jankees’ only win of the series ?

mconsultatlMember since 2020
10 months ago
Reply to  Seeforman

This is because FanGraphs writers hate your team. I heard them talking about how much they hate your team in the hallway.

CosmoMember since 2024
10 months ago
Reply to  Seeforman

Orange man told us “Canada bad”.

Oh, Beepy.Member since 2024
10 months ago
Reply to  Seeforman

Dude don’t bring that little brother shit in here you makin us look bad

wheelhouseMember since 2022
10 months ago

Bunch of useless bums

CC AFCMember since 2016
10 months ago

Now that the Yankees are out, I’ll be rooting for the jays, simply for the possibility of the international incident that will result from them not being invited to the White House or declining an invitation

sandwiches4everMember since 2019
10 months ago
Reply to  CC AFC

While amusing, no, no, screw this team. I want them to get swept by whoever advances in the other division series.

You’re damn right I’m bitter and irrationally angry. Don’t care.

CC AFCMember since 2016
10 months ago

(Mills Lane voice)

I’ll allow it

JimmieFoxxalorianMember since 2020
10 months ago

Wonder if they’ll finally pull the plug on Boone? Not everything is his fault. Most things aren’t. But for whatever reason, his teams have not won championships. With championship expectations annually, it wouldn’t shock if Hal felt compelled to make a switch, even if just for optics

Last edited 10 months ago by JimmieFoxxalorian
TheGarrettCooperFanClub
10 months ago

I think ownership and the front office love him and value continuity.

It blows my mind that he’s been there since 2018 though. I have no real opinion of him one way or the other. I think he’s similar to most of the modern managers. I mean it more so in a time flies sort of way.

KervinMember since 2020
10 months ago

His original hiring was always bizarre to me. He had virtually no managing or coaching experience, and was the batting stance guy on the ESPN broadcasts the prior season. Plenty of heads of baseball ops have chosen a manager based on their personal relationships, and that is an important piece of the manager’s role. But based on how they handled the hiring I don’t have much faith that Cashman & co are thinking about this critically.

TheGarrettCooperFanClub
10 months ago
Reply to  Kervin

I mean, it did work though, didn’t it? He stepped right in and picked up right where Girardi left off, and was better at relating to the players, which was part of what did Girardi in.

Now, maybe someone else would have gotten better results, and I remember not particularly caring for the way he managed his first postseason, but you’re always going to have moments like that for any manager.

They’ve had unfortunate timing during this era in that they went up against a Red Sox team in 2018 that just did everything right, in 2019 against a very good Astros team, and then some leaner years where the talent just wasn’t there compared to previous teams, and then running up against a stacked Dodgers team in the WS.

Sure, they probably should have won one considering they’re usually in the dance and how high their payroll is, but I don’t know how much Boone is to blame for it all.

Last edited 10 months ago by TheGarrettCooperFanClub
Cool Lester SmoothMember since 2020
10 months ago

Yeah, really bad luck against that 2018 Sox team.

Almost like they knew what pitch was coming!

KervinMember since 2020
10 months ago

I mean in that 2018 ALDS his team did not even know what time game three started and it was a home game.

SucramRenrutMember since 2017
10 months ago

I was checking the team splits leaderboards to see how good Toronto was against LHPs this year and noticed that, other than Detroit (98 against righties), all 8 teams in this round were top 10 wRC+ against both lefties and righties this year. Go figure.

hopbittersMember since 2020
10 months ago

The Yankees went 0-3 in non-elimination games and 3-4 in elimination games. The obvious takeaway is that as an opposing manager, you should never let a series get to a point where the Yankees could be eliminated. It’s simple math. .750 vs .000. Numbers don’t lie.

David Klein
10 months ago
Reply to  hopbitters

So you’re saying the Yankees should hire Scott Steiner as their manager? Anthony Volpe would lead the team in being put in Steiner recliners after the game.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
10 months ago
Reply to  hopbitters

It’s more like .430 vs .000.

Still, you’d be better off skipping the elimination game and winning them all, save your bullpen some work.

samathMember since 2025
10 months ago
Reply to  hopbitters

Teams thus far this postseason are 10-5 when facing elimination, and 7-2 if you drop the winner-take-all games. I’m all for it — longer series are more exciting!

L. Ron Hoyabembe
10 months ago

Hey can anyone tell me how many 11 WAR seasons Judge has?

Cool Lester SmoothMember since 2020
10 months ago

I’ll give you a hint – it’s one fewer than the number of 11 WAR seasons every AL player since Mantle has!

A fun search is to filter since Integration and split seasons.

Last edited 10 months ago by Cool Lester Smooth
jaysfan39Member
10 months ago

Yep I am clearly a Jays fan but I don’t think a lot of people realize how ridiculous Judge has been over the last bunch of seasons.

Since integration players with more than one 10 or higher FWAR season

Bonds 6
Mays 4
Mantle 3
Judge 3
Trout 2

Even if you want to the top 10 the only players with more than one top 10 seasons

Bonds 3
Mantle 2
Judge 2

Since the start of the 2022 season Judge has 10.6 more FWAR than any other MLB position player and that is with missing close to half a season of games!!

One of the best 4 year runs in the history of MLB and in the 5 years prior to these 4 seasons he still averaged close to 5 FWAR per season and was the 6th best position player by FWAR despite missing close to a seasons worth of games due to injury.

He is the type of players people should appreciate while he is playing because they are so rare.

mconsultatlMember since 2020
10 months ago
Reply to  jaysfan39

Here here. He is really the only reason I root for the Yankees (as a general baseball fan).

Oh, Beepy.Member since 2024
10 months ago
Reply to  jaysfan39

Huge Jays fan but hating Judge means hating baseball.

Cool Lester SmoothMember since 2020
10 months ago
Reply to  Oh, Beepy.

The sonuvagun is the main reason I can’t root for the Yankees to bottom out.

(The secondary reason is that there’s no way to fire Hal Mara)

Leaving aside fielding, the list of people with Judge’s four year run is Williams, Mantle, and Bonds.

Last edited 10 months ago by Cool Lester Smooth
Willians Astu-stu-studilloMember since 2020
10 months ago

What a bummer. The BABIP gods smiled upon the Blue Jays one more time, and that was it. I would have liked to see it get to game 5, if only for Toronto to once again prove themselves unstoppable at home. It would have at least made it feel more like we definitively identified the better team.

Twitchy
10 months ago

The only time the Yankees won was when the Jays beat themselves with multiple errors. Otherwise they pretty thoroughly dominated NY.

Willians Astu-stu-studilloMember since 2020
10 months ago
Reply to  Twitchy

Oh yeah, for sure, the Blue Jays won by a lot. Because their batted ball luck was so much better.

Twitchy
10 months ago

It’s less that their batted ball luck was “better”, and more that they put significantly more in play.

The Yankees struck out 37 times in 136 AB for a 27% K rate. The Jays struck out 24 times in 148 AB for a 16% K rate. So they had significantly more opportunities to put the ball in play, which leads to more hits.

The Jays also had 8 walks to the Yankees 15, so that’s more opportunities to put the ball in play. Walks are obviously valuable, I’m not saying they’re not, but by having fewer walks they put more potential hits in play.

It makes sense that the Jays would get more hits and have better batted ball results. They led the majors in BA, this is what they do.

Last edited 10 months ago by Twitchy
Willians Astu-stu-studilloMember since 2020
10 months ago
Reply to  Twitchy

Yep, they were way better at putting the ball in play – obviously true on its face. That was their single biggest offensive advantage, by far. But the Yankees had a lot of offensive advantages, as well. As you said, they walked more (the delta was about half as big as the delta in strikeout rate). They also had a higher EV, EV90, maxEV, Barrel%, and HardHit%. Normally that would lead to a higher BABIP and ISO, more or less erasing the difference in K%. After all, the Blue Jays’ xWOBA was .369, and the Yankees .353 – fairly equivalent. Instead, it was the opposite. Basically, the Yankees sacrificed batted ball quantity for batted ball quality, and it didn’t work because luck wasn’t on their side.

I get that you want to defend your team. But this is no shade at the Blue Jays! Short postseason series have always been unreliable because of this sort of thing. From John McGraw:
“In my long experience in taking part in world’s series as a manager I have found that in the shorter series there are many more chances for luck to figure in the final result than in the longer string of games. The breaks of a game are liable to go to one team consecutively for two or three games . . . A best four in seven series has very seldom been convincing to me to establish in my mind the fact of the winner’s superiority beyond a doubt.”

sadtromboneMember since 2020
10 months ago

There are two ways of looking at it:

1) The teams had identical records, there is no way a 5 game series is going to be able to give us enough daylight between them

2) The Blue Jays convincingly beat the Yankees and didn’t even need a fifth game to prove they were the better team.

I think both of these are equally valid ways of looking at it.

Last edited 10 months ago by sadtrombone
Willians Astu-stu-studilloMember since 2020
10 months ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

I don’t personally find #2 to hold much validity, if any. #1 is just obviously true once you even start to think critically about how baseball works. But I realize that it’s all about how you approach being a fan. A lot of fans don’t want to think about stuff like ‘the strength of the team now versus the typical strength of the team over a whole season’ or ‘the outcome of that batted ball versus the quality of the contact’. Nor will they then go check something like BABIP for additional clarity. That’s fine: ultimately you should fan in whatever way you enjoy the most. So if someone ends up believing #2, that would be valid, if overly simplistic.

mercyMember since 2017
10 months ago

Anthony Volpe should’ve been benched for Jose Caballero. Ben Rice needed to start. Also, bringing in Devin Williams with runners on base was a major mistake. He is below replacement with runners on. Cam Schlitter had only thrown 90 pitches and he wasn’t giving up hard contact.

I loved how the Blue jay’s hitters changed their approach with two strikes to just making contact. Yanks were swinging for the fences regardless of count. Even Cody Bellinger, who prides himself on changing up his approach based on the situation lost his way and was swinging out of his shoes.

Nevertheless, the better team won. The Blue Jays have some great hitting, great defense, good baserunning and just enough pitching to continue making waves this postseason. As it stands, they are my favorite to win it all amongst the remaining teams.

PS,
Yankees Fan

raregokusMember since 2022
10 months ago

I don’t think enough has been/can be made of how awful Volpe was in this series. 15 PA, 11 Ks

mercyMember since 2017
10 months ago
Reply to  raregokus

Volpe should’ve been benched for Caballero

Cool Lester SmoothMember since 2020
10 months ago
Reply to  mercy

In August.