Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 10/28/25

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Hope you’ve all recovered from last night’s epic World Series game

Jay Jaffe: I stayed up for the whole thing here on the East Coast, though i will admit that by the time the bottom of the 18 rolled around, I was under a blanket listening to the game with my eyes mostly closed. I did open them as soon as the pitch of Joe Davis’ voice rose, in time to see Freeman’s homer clear the fence

Jay Jaffe: Which is better than I fared during the last 18-inning World Series game in 2018. For that one I met Mike Petriello and some of his MLB.com colleagues at the late great Pacific Standard (sigh), watched Walker Buehler shove, went home after the 10th or 11th inning, hung on til around the 14th, and then woke up to Max Muncy’s on-field postgame interview and pieced together what had transpired, which was still in the TiVo spool.

Jay Jaffe: Anyway, yesterday I wrote about the contributions of catchers Alejandro Kirk and Will Smith to their teams’ respective offenses through the first two games, and both had contributions last night as well, though Freddie Freeman was thrown out by a country mile on Smith’s lone hit. Kirk’s 3-run homer was huge at the time. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/big-nights-for-the-backstops-through-the-f…

Jay Jaffe: let’s get to the questions…

Dan S.: Big start for Bieber tonight. Assuming no disaster or perfect game that moves his market significantly one way or another, what kind of contract do you think he gets this winter? Does someone make a long-term offer he’d consider, or are we talking like 2/40 with an opt-out?

Jay Jaffe: I think a short-term, higher-AAV deal with an opt-out works. Might be for more than $40M but won’t get as high as Snell’s 2/$62M with the Giants. They could structure it so that declining the second year is a mere formality, say $25M for 2026 and $15M for ’27 or some similar ratio like that.

Jay Jaffe: I’ve started writing up my Top 50 Free Agents capsules and similarly had to consider Michael King, who was limited to 15 starts due to shoulder and knee inflammation

David: Rank the long post season games. Mariners – Tigers 15 Innings. Mariners – Astros 18 Innings. Blue Jays – Dodgers 18 Innings.

Jay Jaffe: I couldn’t even begin to rank them without putting much more thought into them but the Mariners-Tigers and Blue Jays-Dodgers ones would be in my top 5. Braves-Astros from 2005 (18 innings), the Aaron Boone game from 2003, the Grand Single game from 1999, Mets-Astros 16-innign game from 1986 NLCS…

Dan S.: Which reliever has a better 2026, Raisel Iglesias or Ryan Helsley?

Jay Jaffe: Iglesias is my next capsule guy to write for the FA50 and I’d probably rather have him for next year than Helsley, though I think the latter will be higher in Ben Clemens’ rankings

Mr. Burrito: If the Dodgers win this  WS where would the current edition of the franchise rate, historically? They’ve combined a generation of regular season success with multiple WS appearances and (again, if they finish it off) 3 titles.   Other franchises have done a lot of one of those things (Atlanta was a great regular season team but only one title; the Yankees and Giants and Red Sox won multiple WS but flailed a bit in off years). But the Dogs are doing both… thoughts?

Jay Jaffe: i’ve mostly thought about the Dodgers’ success in the context of five-year increments using records and run differentials, and after last year’s World Series, I had their 2020-24 run as more or less tied for their 2nd-strongest behind 2019–23, though when you factor the ’24 World Series win for a second title in 5 years, it’s the one that elevates itself. Stretch it out over a longer timespan and I think it’s really approaching the 1996–2003 Yankees run, which did have more titles and no real down seasons à la Boston during their 2004–13 run

Jay Jaffe: Here’s the piece where i took stock of the Dodgers https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-dodgers-embellish-their-playoff-dynast…

Jay Jaffe: I think if they win this year, 2021-25 would probably be the aesthetic choice for their best 5-year span in the framework I used, if not the mathematical one — just because a longer-season champion is preferable to a shorter-season one (though what that squad did in the expanded 2020 playoffs validates the team’s success that year)

TKDC: Since the contract crowdsourcing project is starting, do you have any particular players you think are the hardest to gauge what they will get in this market?

Jay Jaffe: Kyle Schwarber is one in my batch of capsules and… I think there’s going to be a substantial gulf between what he should get paid on a dollars-to-WAR basis because of the DH factor and what he will get. I think it’s tough to gauge any starting pitcher coming off a shaky platform season — Cease, King, Gallen, Giolito

Eric Enders: Jay, thanks for all the great coverage this month. Have you and Davis Schneider ever been seen in the same place at the same time?

Jay Jaffe: As a matter of fact, yes. He was one of the players with pregame availability before Game 3 of the ALDS against the Yankees (the Judge HR game). I was in the process of formulating a question to him when there was dead silence at the start of his session, so i lobbed mine out there in softball form. I also got this pic.

Jay Jaffe:

wheelhouse: true/false oneil cruz has future yankee written all over him

Jay Jaffe: I don’t see it happening. He’s still so raw, and it’s tough to see the Yankees taking a chance on a guy like that at a point when the Pirates will have to move him

bringbackpologrounds: Should Bassitt have pitched more innings? He came in at a tie game in the 8th; surely you have to think about extra innings at that point.

Jay Jaffe: Yeah, i think so. While Bassitt needed just 8 pitches to retire Teoscar, Edman, and Kiké (6, 7, 8) in order, he’s got some nasty splits against lefties that precluded letting him face Ohtani. Then again, since the obvious play was the intentional walk, that would have rendered that particular concern moot, so I think he could have been pushed through a few more batters, pulled before facing Freeman.

Jay Jaffe: (sorry, had to clarify the original wording of that answer)

bringbackpologrounds: That was definitely the greatest baseball bingo game ever. Outfield assists, baserunning blunders, baserunning heroics, errors, HRs, a GOAT performance, playoff Kershaw, 18 innings, and probably more that I forgot.

Jay Jaffe: in one of their more cogent comments, Davis and Smoltz agreed that just about the only thing the game missed out on was a home run robbery.

Guest: Happy I live in the Pacific time zone, it didn’t quite hit my bedtime. How long can Roberts keep playing Pages and batting him ninth? He’s completely lost at the plate. If he could have gotten on base even once ahead of Ohtani the game would be over three hours earlier.

Jay Jaffe: I don’t know what they’re doing with Hyeseong Kim on the roster if not starting him against a righty while Pages sinks in quicksand.

Nancy’s Friend Sluggo: If Ohtani was born and raised in the U.S., do you think he would’ve been shifted in only hitting or pitching? Or would his extraordinary talents have forced the system to change?

Jay Jaffe: I think the odds are high he would have been pushed to one or the other once he was drafted. We’re lucky things worked out the way they did.

>this guy<: In the alternate timeline in which Arte sold the team last year and new owner hired an HVAC guy last off season then made you the POBO/GM this one, what 3 things do you do first? (We could also play this game for Rockies, Pirates, A’s, and even Guards maybe!)

Jay Jaffe:

1. Insurance fire.
2. ???
3. Profit

Jay Jaffe: I’m not sure i can could more than 5 guys under team control I’d keep from their roster. Neto, Kikuchi, Adell, Ward, and Soriano, with Trout traded somewhere for pennies on the dollar as an act of mercy

Dan S.: Do you think Freddy Peralta gets moved and would the return be similar to the Corbin Burnes package?

Jay Jaffe: It wouldn’t surprise me if he gets moved but I don’t see him as being equivalent to Burnes at the time of trade. His track record just isn’t as strong. that said, what the Brewers received (lefty DL Hall and infielder Joey Ortiz) has enough variance in terms of outcomes — will Hall eventually start? Can Ortiz hit AND field? — that the package might wind up looking better a few years down the road.

TKDC: Is the only question on Freddie Freeman’s hall of fame candidacy just how high his percent vote will be as he’s inducted on the first ballot?

Jay Jaffe: Pretty much. He’s done it all except reach the major milestones; 2,500 hits is on the docket for next year and 400 homers the year after, and who knows what postseason heroics he’ll add to the lore by that point.

Jackson: What do you see the Phillies outfield looking like come opening day? Seems like they are high on Crawford contributing. Maybe I’m just jaded from seeing the same platoons play out year after year with Marsh/Kepler/Rojas/whoever, but I’d like to see them start from scratch in the outfield. It would be nice if the entire outfield could hold their own against RHP & LHP (cough cough looking at you Marsh)

Jay Jaffe: I think Dave Dombrowski has his work cut out for him to remake the Phillies’ outfield, but it absolutely has to be done. They’re not high enough on Crawford’s defense to put him in center full time, so figure he’s in left, and i don’t think it’s out of the question that Harper moves back to right, with Castellanos playing elsewhere after being released.

Jay Jaffe: that said, not sure why DD tried to piss Harper off with his recent comments https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6749605/2025/10/25/bryce-harper-phill…

Jeff: True of false: Dodgers might be ruining baseball (regardless if this statement is true or not), but if that cost is watching Ohtani in the postseason has been worth it.

Jay Jaffe: I think Ohtani in the World Series is about the best advertisement the sport can offer.

Jay Jaffe: Highly recommend Marc Normandin’s recent piece at Baseball Prospectus regarding the Dodgers-ruining-baseball  nonsense and its connection to the prospect of a 2027 lockout https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/102481/stop-falling-fo…

ct: thoughts on davis/smoltz in direct comparison with the blue jays booth? feels much harder to defend the fox broadcast when there is a much more interesting alternative (even as someone who likes davis’ calls in big moments, alvarez’ HR in 2022 g6, for example)

Jay Jaffe: I enjoy Joe Davis in the Dodgers booth but Smoltz is one of my all-time least favorite broadcasters, so the national pairing is, uh, less than ideal. I’d love to have the option to easily hear Dan Schulman and Buck Martinez but when I went looking for alt audio during the ALCS all I could get was the radio team (which has Dan’s son Ben Schulman doing pbp).

Jason: What is the most iconic moment of the World Series so far for you? How does it get better (excluding game 7)?

Jay Jaffe: Not to take anything away from Ohtani or Vladito but so far
I think it’s still Yamamoto going the distance in Game 2 since that’s such a rarity these days.

Jay Jaffe: I don’t know how this could get better unless we get as little contribution from both bullpens as possible the rest of the way, but I just don’t see it happening that way.

Stu: On the Jays TV team: Even if you like Dan Shulman (I do), you still have to listen to Buck Martinez.

Jay Jaffe: His voice is an acquired taste, for sure, but I genuinely like Buck as a personality and as a broadcaster, particularly when directly contrasted with the alternative.

Toronto: I understand the logic behind the moves, but maybe don’t take ALL your good hitters out of the game? Going through the order several times with backup players bc you pinch ran for Bichette and Kirk (on top of Springer getting hurt) really hurt them.

Jay Jaffe: Obviously the Springer injury was beyond their control but I can’t fault the Blue Jays for their caution with Bichette given the stakes of his upcoming contract and his career; for as much as he surely wants to be out there, he’s not close to 100%. I guess that makes pinch-running for Kirk the easiest move to second-guess, and in the context of being down two top hitters, it’s fair to think that keeping him in there was the better call — though keep in mind that he’s now better rested than his opposite number (Smith) for Game 4.

Guest: Thoughts about an increasing IBB penalty? The first time you IBB  a guy in a game, it’s 1 base. The second time in that gameyou IBB him, 2 bases, etc.

Jay Jaffe: i like it.

Freeman: Re: Freddie and the HOF. If he wins another ring with the Dodgers, does he go in as a Dodger or Brave? Played for the Braves longer and got a ring there but two rings (maybe more) with LA and the two signature WS walk offs … feels like more people will remember his as a Dodger.

Jay Jaffe: I’d say let’s wait and see where it all lands, count-the-rings-wise. A blank cap avoiding the choice wouldn’t surprise me given that he clearly valued his time in ATL so highly

Naptim3: Was I justified in being stressed out when I saw Kershaw wasn’t coming back out for a clean inning? That was when I started worrying about the Dodgers running out of pitching. Should he have come back out? Or was 0.1 IP the right call?

Jay Jaffe: Kershaw would have had to face Guerrero to start the 13th, and I don’t think that would have been a good idea at all; as it was, I wasn’t wild about Roberts bringing him in with runners on base.

Guest: O Cruz to the Mets? Realistic? Would it cost one of McLean, Sproat, Tong?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t really see the motivation for either side at a point when Cruz is coming off a .200/.298/.378 line and question marks about his defense in center. Pirates shouldn’t sell low on him, Mets need a stronger solution in CF.

randall: Varsho maybe could’ve robbed it if he didn’t jump so early? but i’m sure he was gassed at that point

Jay Jaffe: just watching the video again, I don’t think Varsho had a shot at that without a ladder or a dog-catcher net.

Jay Jaffe: I think that’s as good a note to end the chat on as any. Thanks for stopping by, folks! Enjoy the World Series!