Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 10/31/23

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to the Halloween edition of my FanGraphs chat. I’m sure we’ll discuss some horror stories from free agency, playoff bullpens, and more.

Jay Jaffe: Nothing from me today as I plug away at my entries for our Top 50 Free Agents list, which runs next week, but I did do a piece on Ketel Marte’s record-setting postseason hitting streak, which he extended to 19 games last night https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-postseason-marte-party-is-one-long-hit…

Jay Jaffe: on with the show…

mac: What’s your opinion of Bellinger? I feel like 29 teams could sign him and he’d sustain this unsustainable performance, but for the one in the bronx he’d be unplayable by june

Jay Jaffe: Funny you should mention that, as he’s one of the players I’m writing about for the FA50. The change of scenery really worked for him, in that the Cubs found some mechanical changes he was able to implement without driving himself and everyone crazy with constant tinkering — mainly regarding his hand position and back hip — and he had a nice bounceback season. His Statcast numbers are pretty meager, but some of that is because he traded power for contact, cut his strikeout rate dramatically, and had some of the best 2-strike numbers of any hitter.

Jay Jaffe: I’m not sure he hits for a 134 wRC+ again in 2024, but his power and athleticism give him a pretty decent floor for the next few years.

Jay Jaffe: A return to the Cubs wouldn’t surprise me.

Domingo: Could the current AAA environment be predictive of a future bump in offense in the majors?

Jay Jaffe: Color me skeptical. The PCL in particular has a lot of higher-altitude ballparks (my hometown of Salt Lake City being one of them) and the experimenting with the automatic ball and strike system caused walk rates to spike above 12%. There’s no way that’s going to be replicated in the majors

JC: Devil’s advocate for MVP: If we’re only judging “what happened” rather than underlying skill (FIP, for example), why not consider RBIs?

Jay Jaffe: Many voters (still) do, but there are plenty of other ways to measure value, and many people who do are more inclined to focus on context-neutral measures (adjusting for park, league, and position, for example) rather than context-dependent ones (such as runs scored or driven in, which depend tremendously on teammates).

Jaffe rhymes with Taffy: Hi Jay – what is your daughter dressing up as for Hallowe’en? How about Mom and Dad?

Jay Jaffe: The kiddo is going as a witch, and it’s a pretty great costume. My parents went to a gala as hippies, which, omg, hang on

Jay Jaffe:

Jay Jaffe: Eh, they were into it. Those plaid patchwork slacks date to the early 1970s, at least.

D: Do you think voters will recognize Greinke’s HOF bona fides? He should be a slam dunk but other fans I’ve talked to don’t seem to view him that way.

Jay Jaffe: Voters will absolutely recognize Greinke’s credentials. Cy Young, 225 wins, nearly 3,000 Ks, 77.5 WAR, 25th in S-JAWS, and one of the most quotable players of his era.

We’re just not going to see many 200-win pitchers coming around soon. Outside of Gerrit Cole, there may not be an active pitcher right now who has a chance

Ben: Where do you think Craig Counsell ends up next year and why?

Jay Jaffe: I think there’s a reasonable chance he winds up in Queens due to the Stearns connection. He’s an excellent manager, and if he didn’t want to at least entertain the notion of leaving, he probably could have nudged his way into an extension in Milwaukee, but he may want a chance to try managing a team with a bigger budget

Yeah Well Hiura Towel: Where does Dusty rank among all-time managers? How do you even do such a ranking?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think one can easily get at an ordinal ranking for managers and I’m not about to try, but it’s enough to say that Dusty is clearly qualified for the Hall of Fame given that he’s seventh in wins, fourth in playoff appearances (a product of his era, yes), and the only manager to pilot five different franchises into the postseason (a topic I wrote a bit about here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/dusty-baker-job-security-and-the-hall-of-f…). He won his championship, and has three pennants; that ought to be enough for Cooperstown.

Kyle: So if you’re the Dodgers, you don’t want to pay JD Martinez $20M in 2024. But you do want the draft pick via making him a QO. What do you do?

Jay Jaffe: I suspect the Dodgers are hot and heavy enough for Ohtani that they’ll forgo the QO and the risk Martinez accepts. I do think he can get a bigger guarantee, but in LA he was reunited with Robert Van Scoyoc, the hitting coach who famously helped him unlock his power and evolve from an Astros castoff to a star.

Enos Country Ham: RIP Frank Howard, a guy I didn’t realize wasn’t in the Hall of Fame. I feel like he was very famous–there’s a (terrifying) statue of him in DC! I know he had a short career, but would you tear out your hair if he got in on an eras committee, Gil Hodges-style, some day?

Jay Jaffe: I love Frank Howard, who seems to have been one of the game’s genuine nice guys. One of the highlights of the 2009 SABR conference in DC was Howard, Rick Dempsey, and George Michael (of George Michael Sports Machine fame, not the Wham! guy) doing a panel trading stories back and forth. Howard’s self-deprecative nature was genuinely endearing and I could have listened to those three tell stories all afternoon.

Jay Jaffe: As a player, Howard was sort of an Adam Dunn type — prodigious power, big strikeout rate and TTO rate — but big negatives in defensive value such that he finished with less than 40 WAR. I don’t think he belongs in the Hall but I wouldn’t be saddened if he were to be recognized that way, though I think it’s tremendously unlikely.

Jon: Has Fangraphs done a deep dive on base running value? It’s just so weird to see Acuña not adding more value on the bases than he is.

Jay Jaffe: I’m not really sure what the beef is here. We have him adding 7.6 runs on the bases, seventh in the majors. He stole 73 but his success rate was “only” 84% in a year where 80% was average. Via B-Ref, he took an extra base as a runner only 53% of the time, well below last year’s 76% and his career mark of 61%. He was very good, but not as elite as he was with the bat

Jay Jaffe: If you’re asking about whether him being on base helps his teammates, Esteban Rivera took a look here and found that while the hitters behind him saw more fastballs, their performance didn’t necessarily improve. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/does-ronald-acuna-jr-help-his-teammate…

Benny: I know he has been pretty cold this postseason, but if Evan Longoria had a monster showing games 4-7 and won World Series MVP, would that significantly help his Hall of Fame case or would he still be too far short for it to make any difference?

Jay Jaffe: Longoria is 18th in JAWS among third basemen at 50.2 — he’s not far off — but he’s a career .175/.238/.384 hitter in 194 PA in the postseason, and his other credentials are light enough (3 GG, 3 All-Star) that he only scores a 42 on the Hall of Fame Monitor, where 100 is a pretty good chance. I see him as a guy who’s got respectable credentials but clearly on the wrong side of the line, and I don’t think a big three- or four-game run could really change that

Scherzer: Any chance TEX uses me out of the pen during the Series?

Jay Jaffe: More likely you get deactivated. In fact, I wouldn’t even wait to find out whether the spasms subside because the value of having that extra arm available for the next 3 games before Game 7 is much more than that of the guy who has gotten 29 outs while allowing 7 runs in his 3 starts — and is still likely to be a health liability in the game that decides the whole shebang.

Ownertani: Could the Dodgers offer me an ownership stake as part of my compensation? If so, how would that affect the luxury tax?

Jay Jaffe: No, it’s explicitly not allowed

Dodger Fan: Joe Davis calling amazing Corey Seager plays in the WS has me feeling a wide range of mixed emotions

Jay Jaffe: I get it, particularly after a season where the Dodgers could have certainly used Seager’s services. I think they erred in letting Seager get away; I’d have preferred him to Trea Turner as a free agent given his power.

dolson: Do you think there is any chance Gary Sheffield gets to 75% on his final ballot?

Jay Jaffe: It’s very slim. He needs to gain 20 points (had 55% last year), and only three post-1968 candidates have gotten to 75% while gaining 20, namely Larry Walker (54.6% + 22% in 2020), Vladmir Guerrero (71.7% + 21.2% in 2017), and Barry Larkin (62.1% + 24.3% in 2012). Shef’s task is complicated by the arrivals of Adrian Beltre, Joe Mauer, and Chase Utley, and the proximity of Todd Helton and Billy Wagner to 75%. Even if we get four honorees this year, Shef isn’t likely to be one of them.

Kyle: Does Trea Turner need to win a World Series in Philly to have a decent shot at the HoF?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think that’s his big issue so much as it is the fact that the likes of Lindor and Correa are so far ahead of him — and younger. Turner just finished his age-30 season and has 31.7 JAWS, about 8 points less than Correa (2 years younger) and about 9 less than Lindor (1 year younger). He has yet to have even one 5.0-bWAR season, and he’s gonna need a bunch of those and more to get there

Bardo Bill: Reports were that when Nola and the Phillies were talking about an extension, Nola was looking for 8/200. Do you think he gets that as a free agent? Or something closer to the Rodon 6/162 deal?

Jay Jaffe: Such is the dearth of free agent starting pitching that I bet somebody gives him something close to $200M. Not that I’m recommending it.

Arte: Any chance Ohtani accepts the QO in order to hit the market completely unencumbered by injury in 2025? Asking for a friend.

Jay Jaffe: Zero.

Jose Altuve: Did I solidify my HOF credentials this year or do I need another good year and a few average ones?

Jay Jaffe: Playing just 90 games due to that WBC-broken thumb makes it more of a lost year than an improvement of chances, though he still has a 38% chance of getting to 3,000 hits via Dan Szymborski (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/can-freddie-freeman-re-open-the-3000-hit-c…). The best thing Altuve did for his cause was hit four postseason homers, including that game-winner in ALCS Game 5; he’s now two shy of Manny Ramirez’s career record of 27 postseason homers.

mac: how much signal do you think there is in how a hitter did against a certain pitch type in a year?
this is kind of a follow-up to the bellinger question: he hit really poorly against high velo this year. .189 avg, .259 wOBA both well below league average (.234, .305).

Jay Jaffe: not much. Ben Clemens actually looked into pitch-based splits (and high-velo within that) regarding José Abreu’s free agent signing and found very little predictive value. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jose-abreu-still-rakes-against-fastballs/

Noah: I keep seeing a lot of comments saying that the Astros are moving away from analytics. I get that that’s the vibe ofJeff Bagwell (who dunks on analytics on broadcasts often) and, to an extent, Crane. But these comments seem to be indicting Dana Brown just because…he’s a scout?

Jay Jaffe: This culture war shit is the most goddamn tiresome thing about the sport.

Benny: I agree he’s behind Correa and Lindor, but Turner had 6.4 bWAR in 2021.

Jay Jaffe: Whoops, you’re right — when I sorted I forgot he split that season between Washington and LA. Still, he has a 30.1 peak score, and I found this past summer that a 40 peak score is a good indicator of future election, meaning that he needs to improve his seven best seasons by about 10 wins to get there. Lots of work to do

Caroll: If I go on to have a low-end HOF career, would winning the WS in my rookie year provide much of a boost to my candidacy?

Jay Jaffe: not really any moreso than winning it at another point in your career

Jonny: Do you anticipate Ohtani’s contract to be set up with some opt-outs for him to get another bite at the apple once he is able to pitch effectively again? Or will teams have to pay him the full fare as if he were still a full-time two-way player?

Jay Jaffe: it’s very possible that something like that is built into the contract, though I think it would have to be right after 2025, because the longer he goes, the more risk there is of decline/further injury to his pitching ability

John: Will Adolis García’s playoff performance impact his arbitration case? Or are those figures only based on regular season performance?

Jay Jaffe: I’m about 98% sure that only regular season stats are admissible in arbitration cases

Adam Stein: How much do you think playing on a team that cheated will impact Beltran’s Hall chances. And that of Altuve, Correa and others down the road.

Jay Jaffe: I think it’s too early to know definitively. It does appear to have held back Beltran’s first-year voting percentage (46.5%), but it’s not clear yet whether those who left him off are hard no or soft no.

Altuve does seem to have gotten more benefit of the doubt than I think he deserves, in that while he was said not to have wanted to use the system, he was probably the one guy in that clubhouse with the stature to say, “Cool it, now!” and shut the whole operation down — and he didn’t. Correa was one of the few Astros who said things that sounded like accountability, but he’s got a long way to go.

Pat: 2:56This culture war shit is the most goddamn tiresome thing about the sport. Country.

Jay Jaffe: not entirely untrue but I’d put the war on democracy as far more tiresome

Jay Jaffe: where’s the guy who chimes in every week to go “Yay i’m so glad you guys aren’t talking about politics anymore?”

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Your father’s pants slap, but I’m not sure that the Fat Albert sweater-collar combo is particularly hippie.

Jay Jaffe: LOL my friends and I had the same reaction. Maybe he traded his poncho for some magic mushrooms.

Kershaw Stan: Please tell me Kershaw is coming back in 2024, if only so that his most recent appearance isn’t his last

Jay Jaffe: I wish I knew but the radio silence from him is pretty unnerving, as is the lack of detail about his shoulder problem.

Lacey: Who is the toughest out in baseball right now? Based on eye test, my money is on Freddie Freeman. But I was surprised to see him relatively far down on the list of pitchers per plate appearance.

Jay Jaffe: I don’t know that P/PA is that indicative of being a tough out, because a lot of deep-count guys strike out more often. Freddie’s a good choice because his plate coverage is so damn good but my vote would go to Yordan Alvarez, whose power makes the price of a mistake so damn high.

Log: I think we can all agree at this point that Austin Hedges was the most crucial and underrated pick up of the trade deadline.

Jay Jaffe: Bochy got away with it in Game 1, but I absolutely cannot believe that a guy with a career 52 wRC+ — seven points north of the Mathis Line — got to bat with two on and two out in the ninth inning of a tied World Series game when other options were available.

John: Do you think Kim Ng will get another chance to head an MLB front office? I thought she did a killer job in Miami and was shocked by her sudden departure

Jay Jaffe: Yes. Perhaps not this offseason when the opportunities are so limited, but at some point she’ll have a job better than the one she just left.

Lefty: Odds of SF opening the piggy bank and getting Yamamoto, Chapman and Jung Hoo Lee? 2 of 3? Any?

Jay Jaffe: slim. Chapman makes a lot of sense for them but I think Yamamoto is going to have so many suitors that it’s tough to see the Giants emerging as the favorites to sign him, even given Bob Melvin’s links to several Japanese players.

Johnathan: What casts a bigger pall over the Angels’ selling price: their bungling of the Ohtani years, or the remainder of Rendon’s contact?

Jay Jaffe: More likely the former and the decrepitude of the farm system, which ranks last in our Organizational Rankings https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/farm-system-rankings

Keenan: Do you think AZ can keep up the strange pitching stats for the WS? .200 BABIP while allowing a 48.6% hard hit rate seems like it might level off over the course of 7 games.

Jay Jaffe: it’s the .200 BABIP and 17.6% barrel rate that gets me.

Judge: Who’s the best comp for how I age going forward? Frank Thomas? He was pretty productive into his late 30s

Jay Jaffe: No, Judge is far more athletic than Thomas, who by the time he was 30 was DHing far more often than he was playing the field. Dave Winfield comes to mind, though while he was 6-foot-6 he wasn’t as jacked as Judge.

Abe: As I sit here still moping about the Yankees missing the playoffs in a year where it was so wide open, give me one trade target that you think makes sense for them this winter.

Jay Jaffe: The Juan Soto rumors make sense, though he’s a short-term fix since he can be a free agent after next season. If I’m the Yankees I might see what it would take to acquire Fernando Tatis Jr., who’s owed a boatload of money and coming off a completely lost year and a good-not-great one and would have to move positions again — but boy does he have a lot of upside still.

Jason: Should expectations for Arizona be higher for next season after this playoff run? Or perhaps due to the fact that so many key contributors are under 25?

Jay Jaffe: I think it’s the youth, and the possibility of guys like Pfaadt (a top-20 prospect coming into the year) building on this late-season success

Harper and Trout: This question assumes both make the HoF. If Harper and Trout finish their careers with similar HR, RBI, and hit totals, who gets a higher HoF vote? Will Trout’s advantage in rate stats and peak value outweighs Harper’s postseason heroics in vote percentage?

Jay Jaffe: Trout and yes. There’s such a big gap in regular season value, and while Harper obviously runs laps around Trout with the postseason stuff, that isn’t enough to overcome a gap of nearly 40 WAR.

Jay Jaffe: OK folks, I gotta head for the showers here because trick-or-treat time comes early for 7 year olds. Thanks so much for stopping by, enjoy the rest of the World Series, and please have a safe Halloween.